Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price (TP) of HKD 14.54, which corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY25E estimates, aligning with the long-term average of comparable peers [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales value (RSV) for Q1 FY25, with declines of 18% in mainland China and 28.8% in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales growth (SSSG) decreased by 26.4% and 30.8% in these regions, respectively. The weak performance is attributed to sluggish consumer spending and increased gold price volatility, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1]. - The contribution of fixed-price products has significantly increased from 5.7% in Q1 FY24 to 15.8% in Q1 FY25, exceeding expectations. This improvement is driven by ongoing product portfolio enhancements and strong terminal feedback, particularly for the new "Roge" series. The report anticipates that the contribution from fixed-price products will remain high due to upcoming product launches [1]. - The company has optimized its channel strategy, closing 95 stores in Q1 FY25 (opening 89 and closing 194) to replace underperforming stores with more efficient ones, thereby enhancing profitability. Online sales contribution rose to 13.8% in Q1 FY25 from 10% in Q1 FY24, indicating a positive trend in online presence amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to generate revenue of HKD 106,501 million, reflecting a 2% decline year-on-year. Net profit is expected to reach HKD 7,260 million, with a growth forecast of 12% for FY25E, followed by 9% and 8% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 21.6% for FY25E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by FY27E. The report also highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% for FY25E, improving to 9.9% by FY27E [2][11]. - The company's financial position shows a net cash status in FY23A, with a projected net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2x in FY25E, indicating a strong balance sheet [2][11].

29 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Sales under ST pressure, fixed-price products to contribute more Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1QFY25 (calendar year 2Q24) operational data with a 20% YoY decline in total retail sales value (RSV). RSV in Mainland China/ HK & Macau fell 18/28.8% YoY, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) down 26.4/30.8% YoY. The sluggish results were due to weak consumer spending and gold price volatility that intensified co ...

29 Jul 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Weather short-term headwinds in 2Q24; eyes on 2H24E recovery iQiyi will report 2Q24 results on 22 August. We forecast 2Q24 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to RMB7.4bn, due to underperformance of certain drama series and a YoY decline in the number of variety shows. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to drop by 36% YoY to RMB503mn on operating deleverage, despite largely flattish content costs a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE with a target price of HK$45.28, implying a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of HK$30.75 [2][3][11] Core Insights - BYDE is expected to report solid growth in 1H24, with estimated revenue and net profit growth of 32% and 26% respectively, driven by iPad share gains, Android recovery, and stable NEV components sales [2][11] - The company has revised its FY24-26 EPS estimates down by 6% primarily due to a weaker gross profit margin (GPM) [2][11] - The stock is currently trading at attractive multiples of 12.7x and 9.3x FY24 and FY25 estimated P/E ratios [2][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue from smartphone OEM/component business is projected to increase by 39% in 1H24 and 36% in 2H24, driven by iPad share gains and the iPhone cycle [2] - iPad revenue is expected to grow by 53% in 1H24 and 28% in 2H24, with market share projected to reach 50% in FY24 [2][6] - GPM for assembly is expected to improve slightly to 2.5% in 1H24 and 2.6% in 2H24, while component GPM is projected at 14.3% and 14.7% for the same periods [2] Automotive - Automotive revenue is expected to grow by 38% YoY in FY24, driven by strong Parentco shipments and new high-end product ramp-up [2][6] - The ASP for automotive products is anticipated to grow by 20% YoY, contributing to overall revenue growth [2] New Intelligent Products - AI server business is expected to generate RMB1 billion in revenue in FY24, offsetting weaknesses in the household energy storage segment [2] - The report expresses optimism about the AI server business delivering rapid growth in FY25-26 due to next-gen products in development with Nvidia [2] Earnings Summary - For FY24, revenue is estimated at RMB171.96 billion, with a YoY growth of 32.3% [3][6] - Net profit for FY24 is projected at RMB5.06 billion, reflecting a 25.3% YoY growth [3][6] - EPS for FY24 is estimated at RMB2.25, which is 1-9% above consensus estimates [2][6] Valuation - The new target price of HK$45.28 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting BYDE's diversified business model [11] - The report assigns a target P/E of 15x for assembly and component businesses, and 20x for new intelligent and NEV segments, indicating their growth potential [11]

2024 年 7 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 比亚迪 （ 285 香港 ）1H24E 预览版 ： 预计 iPad / iPhone 周期 ， Android 恢复和 NEV 订单 (上一个 TP HK $45.28 HK $45.15) 47.3% 比亚迪将在 8 月公布 1H24 业绩我们估计 1H24 收入 / NP 增长 32% / 26% 受 iPad 份额增长、 Android 复苏、 Jabil 业务整合、 稳定的新能源汽车零部件销售和新型智能产品业务。为 2H24E / 2025E ， 我们对 iPad / iPhone 升级周期持积极态度 ， Android 高端 订单、汽车订单和人工智能服务器推动收入增长。我们削减了 FY24 - 26E 每股收益下降 6% ， 主要是由于 GPM 走弱。我们的 FY24 - 26E 每股收益估计为 1 - 9% 以上的共识。该股现在的市盈率为 12.7 倍 / 9.3 倍 FY24 / 25E 市盈率 ， 即 我们认为有吸引力。我们新的基于 SOTP 的 TP 为 45.28 港元 ， 意味着 FY24E 的 18.3 ...

2024 年 7 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 24 年第二季度的天气短期逆风 ； 关注 2H24E 复苏 爱奇艺将于 8 月 22 日公布第二季度业绩。我们预测 2Q24 总收入将同比下降 5%，至 74 亿 元人民币，这是由于某些剧集的表现不佳以及综艺节目的数量同比下降。我们预计非 GAAP 营业利润将同比下降 36%，至 5.03 亿元人民币，尽管内容成本和营业支出同比基本持平。尽 管如此，我们预计在优质内容管道的推动下，总收入和利润将在下半年逐步恢复。鉴于竞争激 烈且某些内容的表现低于预期，我们将 FY24 - 26E 非 GAAP 净收入预测下调至 2.8 / 3.3 / 40 亿元人民币 （ 前值 ： 3.7 / 4.2 / 45 亿元人民币 ） 。我们的目标价格为 6.40 美元，基于 FY24E 的 16 倍 PE （ 先前 ： 8.6 美元，基于 FY24E 的 16 倍 PE ） 。我们以买入评级转移 超额。 会员业务在第二季度面临压力。我们预计 2Q24E 的会员收入将同比下降 8%，至 45 亿元人 民币，主要原因是某些剧集的表 ...

2024 年 7 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 装备制造 3,000 亿元资金支持设备更新和消费品以旧换新 国家发改委、财政部昨天（7 月 25 日）发布关于加大对设备更新和消费品以旧 换新支持措施的通知（《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若 干措施》）。《通知》提出统筹约 3,000 亿元人民币超长期特别国债资金以支 持设备更新和以旧换新。设备更新范围包括工业、环境基础设施、交通设备、 物流、教育、文旅和医疗，并延伸至能源、电力和老旧电梯。其中特别提及增 加对国三货车和农业机械的补贴。到 2024 年底没用完的已下达资金将收回中 央，因此我们认为替换周期会在今年下半年加快。在我们的覆盖个股当中，潍 柴动力（2338 HK，买入，目标价：22 港元 / 000338 CH，买入，目标价：人 民币 20.4 元）、中国重汽（3808 HK，买入，目标价：22.5 港元）和中联重科 （1157 HK，买入，目标价：7.50 港元 / 000157 CH，买入，目标价：人民币 11.6 元）将是主要受益者。 老旧船舶报废更新：《通知》鼓励加快高排放船舶更新换代，推动新能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the healthcare industry, particularly in the context of the DRG/DIP payment reform, which is expected to enhance cash flow for commercial circulation enterprises and support the clinical use of innovative drugs [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration has implemented the DRG/DIP 2.0 version, which includes adjustments to groupings that better reflect clinical realities, with a total of 409 core groups and 634 detailed groups [1]. - The report highlights that over 90% of regions in the country have adopted DRG/DIP payment methods, with 26 provinces achieving full coverage within their jurisdictions [1]. - The new policy allows for exceptions in cases of long hospital stays, high medical costs, and the use of innovative drugs and technologies, which will create a more favorable payment environment for innovative drug costs [2]. - The overall settlement cycle for medical insurance funds is expected to shorten, benefiting commercial circulation and pharmaceutical manufacturing companies by accelerating payment collection [1][3]. Summary by Sections - **DRG/DIP Payment Reform**: The 2.0 version introduces 33 new core groups and 6 new detailed groups, with a focus on high-resource consumption areas. The core disease groups have been reduced from 11,553 to 9,520 [1]. - **Implementation Timeline**: By the end of 2024, all regions that have not yet adopted DRG/DIP payment methods are required to implement the 2.0 version, while existing regions must prepare for the transition by December 31, 2024 [1]. - **Impact on Innovative Drugs**: The report emphasizes that the healthcare fund will maintain a supportive payment environment for innovative drugs, allowing for project-based payments or weighted additions during the initial application phase [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, with a target price raised to US$218.00, reflecting an 18.7% upside from the current price of US$183.60 [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported 2Q24 total revenue of US$84.7 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, and net income of US$23.6 billion, up 29% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates [3]. - The advertising business remains resilient, with Google Search and other revenue growing by 14% year-over-year to US$48.5 billion, driven by retail and financial services [3]. - Google Cloud revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to US$10.3 billion, supported by strong growth in the Google Cloud Platform and contributions from AI [3]. - Operating profit margin (OPM) improved to 32.4%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to moderate expense growth and a decline in headcount [3]. - The company expects full-year OPM to improve in FY24 compared to FY23, despite anticipated increases in headcount and tech infrastructure expenses [3]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at US$344.9 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$92.0 billion, reflecting a 24.7% increase year-over-year [8][21]. - The gross margin is expected to be 57.1% in FY24E, with operating margin projected at 30.4% [8][21]. - The company’s capital expenditure increased by 91% year-over-year to US$13.2 billion in 2Q24, with expectations of maintaining quarterly Capex at or above US$12 billion throughout FY24 [3]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a target P/E multiple of 26x for FY25E, aligning with the sector average [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at US$116.2 billion, with an EPS of US$7.4 [8][21].

2024 年 7 月 25 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 字母表 (GOOG US) 内联第二季度业绩 ； GenAI 获得牵引力 Alphabet 公布了第 2 季度的财务业绩 ： 总收入同比增长 14%，至 847 亿美元，符合彭博社 的普遍预期 ； 净收入同比增长 29%，至 236 亿美元，比普遍预期高出 3%，这主要是由于管 理层努力缓和费用增长并放慢招聘速度。展望第三季度，我们预计高基数将对收入增长率产生 影响。正如管理层指出的那样，我们还预计第三季度 OPM 将开始反映与技术基础设施投资相 关的折旧和费用的增加。管理层仍预计，鉴于 1H24 的稳定效率增长，FY24 全年 OPM 相对 于 FY23 有所改善。鉴于运营效率的持续改善，我们将 FY24 - 26 盈利预测上调 3 - 8% 。我 们将估值倍数上调，并将 TP 提高至 218.0 美元，为 FY25E 的 26 倍 PE （ 之前 ： 185.5 美 元，为 FY24E 的 27 倍 PE ） 。维持买入。 弹性广告业务。谷歌搜索和其他收入在第二季度同比增长 14%，达到 485 亿美元 （ 第 一季度 ： ...