Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $207.00, down from a previous target of $211.00, reflecting a potential upside of 23.3% from the current price of $167.90 [1]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue of $148 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of $14.7 billion, up 70% year-over-year, driven by AWS's operating profit margin and effective cost control [1]. - Management has provided cautious guidance for Q3 2024, projecting revenue between $154 billion and $158.5 billion, slightly below market expectations, and operating profit guidance of $11.5 billion to $15 billion, also below consensus [1]. - Despite potential short-term challenges in operating profit margin expansion, the long-term growth trend remains intact due to higher-margin services and increased contributions from AWS [1]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at $629.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9.6%. Net profit is expected to reach $51.3 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 68.5% compared to FY23A [3][7]. - The report outlines a decrease in EBITDA forecast by 1% for FY24E, alongside slightly higher-than-expected capital expenditures to support cloud business expansion [1][7]. - The report highlights a strong performance in AWS, with Q2 revenue of $26.3 billion, representing an 18.7% year-over-year growth, and operating profit margin of 35.5% [1][5]. Segment Performance - North America (NA) business revenue reached $90 billion in Q2, a 9% year-over-year increase, with operating profit margin improving by 1.7 percentage points to 5.6% [1]. - International business revenue was $31.7 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3.9 percentage points to 0.9% [1]. - Advertising services revenue grew by 20% year-over-year to $12.8 billion, contributing 8.6% to total revenue, up from 7.9% in the previous year [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meta with a target price of $565.00, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous target price of $542.00 [4][15]. Core Insights - Meta reported a 22% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2024, reaching $39.1 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2% [1]. - Net income increased by 73% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 10%, primarily due to effective cost control related to employee expenses [1]. - For Q3 2024, management anticipates revenue growth of 13-20%, aligning closely with consensus expectations despite high base effects [1]. - The report highlights strong advertising demand across verticals, particularly in online commerce, gaming, and entertainment, contributing to a 22% increase in advertising revenue [1]. - The introduction of AI initiatives, such as Meta AI and AI Studio, is expected to enhance user experience and create monetization opportunities [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24, FY25, and FY26 have been increased by 1-2% [1]. - Operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 9 percentage points year-over-year to 38.0% in Q2 2024, driven by lower marketing and restructuring costs [1]. - FY24 capital expenditures are projected to grow by 36-47% year-over-year, reaching $37-40 billion [1]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for net income from FY24 to FY26 [1][19]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated P/E ratio for FY24 is 27x, with a target price of $565.00 per share, which is above the industry average of 22x [4][18]. - The report indicates that the current valuation at 20x FY25E P/E remains attractive [1]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue is expected to reach $159.7 billion in FY24E, with net income projected at $53.1 billion [3][19]. - The report anticipates a stable gross margin of 81.0% and an operating margin of 38.6% for FY24E [3][19]. Shareholder Structure - Mark Zuckerberg holds 14.0% of the equity, while Vanguard Group holds 6.9% [2].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$565.0 based on 27x FY24 PE [1][3] Core Views - Meta's 2Q24 earnings beat consensus estimates with total revenue increasing by 22% YoY to US$39.1bn and net income growing by 73% YoY to US$13.5bn [1] - Management expects 3Q24 revenue to grow by 13-20% YoY to US$38.5-41.0bn, in line with consensus estimates [1] - FY24 full-year total expenses guidance remains unchanged at US$96-99bn, easing investor concerns on margin expansion [1] - Meta's ad business maintained solid growth with Family of Apps' ad revenue increasing by 22% YoY to US$38.3bn in 2Q24 [1] - Meta AI is on track to become the most used AI assistant by end-FY24, with billions of queries since its launch [1] - Operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 9ppt YoY to 38.0% in 2Q24, driven by efficiency gains [1] Financial Performance - FY24E revenue is forecasted at US$159.7bn, with a net profit of US$53.1bn [2][11] - FY24E EPS is projected at US$20.93, representing a 4.6% increase from previous estimates [11] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 81.0% for FY24E, while operating margin is forecasted to expand to 38.6% [11] - Net income CAGR is projected at 21% over FY24-26E [1] Ad Business - Total number of ad impressions and average price per ad both grew by 10% YoY in 2Q24, driven by enhanced user engagement and improved ad performance [1] - Meta launched a full-screen video player and unified video recommendation systems, increasing engagement on Reels and creating opportunities for ad inventory growth [1] - US advertisers saw a 22% higher ROI after adopting Advantage+ Shopping campaigns [1] AI Initiatives - Meta AI has received billions of queries since its launch and is expected to become the most used AI assistant by end-FY24 [1] - Meta launched AI Studio, enabling millions of creators to create their own AI agents, which is expected to improve user experience and create monetization opportunities [1] Capex and Margin Outlook - FY24 capex guidance has been raised to US$37-40bn, representing a 36-47% YoY increase [1] - Significant capex growth is expected in FY25 to support AI development [1] - OPM expansion is expected to slow down meaningfully from FY25 onward [1] Valuation - Meta is valued at US$565.0 per share based on 27x FY24E P/E, reflecting its strong leadership in the global social media space [3] - The current valuation of 20x FY25E PE remains attractive [1]

2024 年 8 月 2 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 DPC 短跑 (1405 香港) 在积极的利润警报之后 ， Outlook 保持健康 有什么新消息 ？ DPC Dash 宣布了 1H24 的积极利润预警。对于 1H24 ， 该公司现在预计 ： 1 ） 销售额将同比增长 45 ％ ， 达到 20 亿元人民币 ； 2 ） 净利润为 1, 0mn 人民币 （ 1H23 年为 880 万元人民币 ） ， 3 ） 调整。净利润为 4800 万元人民币 （ 与 1H23 年亏损 1740 万元人民币相比 ） 。此外 ， 该公司已开设了 146 家净新店 （ 12 / 134 家 ） ， 在新兴 市场的总增长率达到了同比增长。 我们的观点 ： 非常稳固的 SSSG ， 在成熟 / 新兴市场的弹性 / 健康表现的支持下 ， 我 们不排除在不久的将来会有更多的好处。 1) SSSG 在第 2 季度仍然是积极的 ， 这是 DPC 连续第 28 个季度取得积极的 SSSG ， 尤其是令人印象深刻。考虑到宏观条件。该数字比许多同行要好得多 （ HDL （ CMBI 估 计 ） 为 - 15 ％ ， Y ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 35.61, up from a previous target of HKD 34.31, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of HKD 29.45 [3][4]. Core Insights - Hutchmed's oncology/immunology product revenue reached USD 128 million in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.6%, with USD 43 million coming from overseas sales. The total oncology/immunology revenue, including R&D services and Takeda collaboration, was USD 169 million, representing 48% of the FY24 guidance midpoint of USD 300-400 million [2]. - The strong sales performance of Fruquintinib in the U.S. market, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 53% to JPY 11.9 billion (approximately USD 80 million), exceeded expectations and reflects robust demand [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum for Fruquintinib and other products in global markets, with anticipated submissions for expanded indications in China [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are USD 640 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.6%. Net profit is expected to be USD 35 million, with earnings per share projected at USD 0.04 [12][14]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to decrease to USD 224 million in FY24E, down from USD 302 million in FY23A [12][14]. - The company reported a strong cash position of USD 803 million as of June 2024, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - Fruquintinib is expected to receive a CDE decision for its sNDA for 2L GC in Q3 2024, which could further enhance its market position in China [2]. - Savolitinib is anticipated to become the company's second globally commercialized product, with an NDA submission to the U.S. FDA expected by the end of 2024 [2]. - Sovleplenib shows potential as a best-in-class Syk inhibitor, with a high durable response rate in ITP, and is expected to enter the autoimmune disease market following NDA submission [2].

2 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update DPC Dash (1405 HK) Outlook stays healthy after positive profit alert What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For 1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to RMB 2.0bn, 2) net profit to be at RMB 10.0mn+ (vs RMB 8.8mn in 1H23), 3) adj. net profit to be at RMB 48mn+ (vs RMB 17.4mn losses in 1H23). Also, the company has opened 146 net new stores (12/ 134 in mature/ emerging m ...

2 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hutchmed (13 HK) Fruquintinib's overseas sales beat HCM's oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$128mn in 1H24 (+59.6% YoY), including US$43mn revenue recognised from fruquintinib's sales outside China. The consolidated revenue from oncology/immunology including R&D services and Takeda collaboration revenue, reached US$169mn in 1H24, representing 48% of the midpoint of the FY24 guidance range of US$300-400mn. In 2Q24, fru ...

2024 年 8 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 临近降息 美联储决议声明确认去通胀取得更大进展，删除对通胀风险"高度关注"措 辞，关注就业不断降温趋势，为未来可能降息扫清障碍。鲍威尔在记者会上表 示正在接近可以降息的时机，最快可能 9 月降息，美股、美债、原油、黄金和 日元应声走高。我们维持美联储今年 9 月开始降息、12 月再次降息和明年 4 次 降息的预测，预计明年末联邦基金利率将降至 3.8%左右（目标区间 3.75%- 4%）。我们认为下半年美国经济和通胀将延续降温，薪资增速放缓带动核心服 务通胀回落和 CPI 房租通胀补跌将是下半年通胀下行的主要驱动因素。在通胀 降至 2.5%以下之后，进一步迈向 2%目标则需要经济总需求进一步冷却。伴随 美元降息周期，美国长期国债收益率可能温和降至今年末的 4%和明年末的 3.9%，美元指数可能小幅降至今年末的 104 和明年末的 101，美股或先抑后 扬，新兴市场汇率和股票均将受益于美元降息和美元指数回落。 美联储会议声明重点：保持政策利率目标在 5.25%-5.5%不变，继续减少持 有的国债、机构债和 MBS；除非对通胀朝 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a revised target price of **$95.0** (previously $102.5) [2][3] Core Views - New Oriental's core education business continues to show strong momentum, with FY24 revenue growing 44% YoY to $4.314 billion and non-GAAP net income up 47% YoY to $381.1 million [2] - The company's overseas test preparation and study consulting revenues grew 17.7% and 17.3% YoY, respectively, contributing approximately 11% and 15% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - Domestic test preparation revenue increased 16.4% YoY, accounting for about 4% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - New education initiatives grew 50.3% YoY, contributing approximately 20% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - East Buy's revenue is expected to decline 20% YoY in FY25E to $741 million due to business adjustments [2] Business Performance and Outlook - For 1QFY25E, management guides total revenue growth of 31-34% YoY, reaching $1.255-1.284 billion, with OPM improving by 200 bps YoY [2] - The company expects overseas test preparation, overseas consulting, new education, and high school tutoring revenues to grow 25%, 15%, 50%, and 30% YoY, respectively, in FY25E [2] - Non-GAAP operating margin declined 5.9 percentage points YoY to 3.2% in 4QFY24, primarily due to capacity expansion and increased investments in live-streaming e-commerce [2] - The total number of schools and learning centers increased 37% YoY to 1,025 by the end of 4QFY24 [2] - Management expects capacity to grow 20-25% YoY in FY25E, with most new openings in cities with better unit economics [2] Financial Projections - FY25E revenue is projected at $5.267 billion, with non-GAAP net income of $571.7 million [3] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach $6.258 billion, with non-GAAP net income of $791.4 million [3] - Non-GAAP EPS for FY25E and FY26E is forecasted at $3.45 and $4.78, respectively [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 53.6% in FY25E and 54.8% in FY26E [6] - Operating margin is projected to increase to 11.1% in FY25E and 13.3% in FY26E [6] Valuation - The SOTP valuation method is used, with a 10% holdco discount, resulting in a target price of $95.0 per ADS [7] - Education and consulting business is valued at $89.9 (95% of total valuation), based on 30x FY25E PE [7] - East Buy is valued at $1.7 (2% of total valuation), based on 7x FY25E PE [7] - Travel and other businesses are valued at $3.3 (4% of total valuation), based on 15x FY25E PE [7] Industry Comparison - New Oriental's FY25E PE of 24.6x is higher than the education industry average of 22.4x, reflecting its strong leadership in China's education services market [7][9] - The company's FY25E PS of 2.2x is in line with the education industry average [9]

2024 年 8 月 1 日 Microsoft (MSFT US) 来自彭博社的更多报告 ： 重新设置 CMBR < GO > 或 http: / / www. cmbi. com. hk 收益汇总 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 2 预测和估值的变化 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------|-------|------------|-------|-------|------------------|-----------|-----------| | 图 3 ： 微软 ： CMBI \n 十亿美元 | 预测与共识 \nFY25E | Current FY26E | FY27E | 共识 FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | 差异 FY25E FY26E | (%) | FY27E | | 收入 | 283. ...