1 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update United Imaging (688271 CH) Anticipating a rapid rebound in domestic business United Imaging's 9M24 revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB6,954mn, with 3Q24 revenue down by 25.0% YoY to RMB1.6bn. This downturn was primarily due to a challenging domestic market environment, marked by stringent industry regulations and delays in equipment renewal projects. Attributable net profit in 9M24 decreased by 36.9% YoY to RMB671mn, with net pro ...

Investment Rating - The stock is downgraded to HOLD with an adjusted target price of RMB86, based on 45x 2025E P/E [1] Core Views - Maxscend's 3Q24 revenue declined by 23% YoY and 1% QoQ to RMB1.1bn, driven by weak smartphone demand [1] - Net profit dropped by 84% YoY and 55% QoQ to RMB71mn, mainly due to GPM erosion, higher R&D costs, and asset impairment loss [1] - The company is undergoing a business model transformation from fabless to fab-lite, which is expected to weigh on short-term profitability [1] - Long-term growth prospects remain intact, but the stock is downgraded due to short-term challenges [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Quarterly sales were flat sequentially (-1%) in 3Q24, showing weak market demand compared to pre-pandemic growth of 40% QoQ in 3Q18/19 and 48% QoQ in 3Q23 [1] - 2024/25E revenue forecasts are revised down by 8%/7%, with FY24/25E revenue growth adjusted to 4.7%/23% YoY [1] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to recover to 40%+ in 2H25, but challenges are expected in the next 2-3 quarters due to capacity ramp-up and slow demand recovery [1] Module Business - Module revenue contribution increased to 43% of sales in 9M24, up from 36% in 2023, and is expected to further increase to 49%/55% in 2024/25E [1] - The modulization trend in the RFFE industry is seen as a key driver of future growth, providing more integrated solutions [1] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB4,582mn, with a YoY growth of 4.7%, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 23% to RMB5,639mn [2] - Net profit for 2024E is estimated at RMB558mn, with a significant recovery expected in 2025E to RMB1,019mn [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.0% in 2024E to 44.4% in 2026E [2] Valuation and Peers Comparison - The target price of RMB86 corresponds to 45x 2025E P/E, close to the peers' average of ~41x 2025E P/E [1] - Maxscend's 2024E P/E is 87.2x, higher than domestic peers like Vanchip (45.6x) and GigaDevice (51.9x) [10] Industry Trends - The RFFE industry is moving towards modulization, which is expected to benefit companies like Maxscend that are increasing their module business share [1]

4 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Amazon (AMZN US) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [16]. Core Views - The company has shown strong operational growth, with a 25% year-on-year increase in patient visits in Q3 2024, and a 13.5% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The management has raised the target for new store openings in 2024 to between 18 and 25, reflecting an aggressive expansion strategy [1]. - The company is benefiting from favorable government policies that support private healthcare institutions, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [1]. - The company plans to increase shareholder returns, targeting a dividend and buyback ratio of 30-50% of net profit over the next 3-5 years [1]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, the company expects revenue of RMB 3,031 million, a 30.5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 388 million, reflecting a 27.4% growth [2][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 1.59, with a projected adjusted P/E ratio of 21.1 [2][14]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in store openings, with 19 new stores added in 2024, compared to 9 in the previous year [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the private traditional Chinese medicine sector, with a robust internal control system that supports sustainable growth amid regulatory scrutiny [1]. - The management has indicated that the acquisition cost for new stores is decreasing, with current P/S valuations around 0.8x, which is expected to remain below 1.0x for future acquisitions [1]. - The company has expanded its presence to 74 offline traditional Chinese medicine institutions across 20 cities, significantly increasing its market density in economically strong regions [1].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$218.0 based on 24x FY25E PE [1][6] Core Viewpoints - Alphabet's 3Q24 results beat expectations with total revenue up 15% YoY to US$88.3bn and net income growing 34% YoY to US$26.3bn [1] - Google Cloud revenue surged 35% YoY to US$11.4bn, driven by GenAI adoption and improved efficiency [1] - AI integration in search and shopping ads is unlocking new monetization opportunities, with AI Overviews serving over 1bn users monthly [1] - Alphabet's operating margin expanded by 4.5ppts YoY to 32.3% in 3Q24, supported by effective cost management [1] Financial Performance - FY24E revenue is projected at US$349.7bn, with YoY growth of 13.8%, and FY26E revenue is expected to reach US$437.6bn [2][4] - Net profit for FY24E is forecasted at US$99.2bn, with a YoY increase of 34.4%, and FY26E net profit is estimated at US$126.1bn [4][10] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 58.0% in FY24E to 59.1% in FY26E, while operating margin is projected to rise from 31.4% to 33.1% over the same period [4][13] Google Cloud Performance - Google Cloud's operating profit margin (OPM) reached a record high of 17% in 3Q24, up 14ppts YoY and 6ppts QoQ [1] - Vertex AI, the enterprise AI platform, saw a 14x growth in Gemini API calls over a six-month period [1] AI and Search Integration - Google Search & other revenue grew 12% YoY to US$49.4bn in 3Q24, driven by AI-enhanced search experiences [1] - Circle to Search is now available on over 150mn Android devices, further enhancing user engagement [1] Capital Expenditure - Total capex in 3Q24 increased 62% YoY to US$13.1bn, primarily focused on servers and data centers [1] - Management expects capex to remain stable QoQ in 4Q24E and increase YoY in 2025E, albeit at a slower rate [1] Valuation - Alphabet is valued at US$218.0 per share based on 24x 2025E P/E, reflecting its leadership in the global advertising market and AI potential [6][7] - The target P/E multiple represents a premium to the sector average of 23x [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price raised from US$25.00 to US$30.00, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of US$25.01 [2][4]. Core Insights - Li Auto's 3Q24 earnings are considered strong, driven by an increase in average selling price, gross margin, and effective operating cost control. The main drag on earnings was attributed to share-based payments and fair value losses from investments [2]. - Despite limited information on new BEVs for 2025, the company is believed to be establishing a solid foundation with comprehensive charging infrastructure, larger showrooms, and advancements in autonomous driving technologies [2]. - The report suggests that the recent drop in share price following the 3Q24 results may present an opportunity for investors to accumulate shares [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q24, Li Auto achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB3.8 billion, marking the highest in its history, and an operating margin of 8%, the highest recorded [2][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) in 3Q24 was 22.2%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than previous forecasts, aided by effective cost-cutting measures [2][9]. - For FY24E, the sales volume forecast remains at 0.51 million units, with an expected GPM increase of 0.7 percentage points QoQ for 4Q24 [2][7]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report revises up the earnings estimates for 4Q24 and FY25E following a strong performance in 3Q24. The FY25E net profit estimate is raised by 7% to RMB13.2 billion [2][8]. - The FY25E sales volume forecast is adjusted from 0.65 million units to 0.66 million units, reflecting stronger-than-expected sales of the L6 model [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected operating margin of 9.1% for 4Q24, which would drive a net profit of RMB4.3 billion for that quarter [2][9]. - Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 15.0 for FY24E and a projected P/E of 10.0 for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a revised 12-month target price of HK$35.5, implying a 0.5x FY24E P/Group EV and 1.1x FY24E P/BV [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in NPAT, up 65.5% YoY to RMB38.3 billion, with 3Q NPAT growing 173.6% YoY to RMB13.2 billion, driven by increased investment income and net fair value gains [1]. - Headline NBV rose 37.9% YoY to RMB14.2 billion in 9M24, with 3Q NBV on a like-for-like basis surging 75.3% YoY to RMB5.2 billion, attributed to margin expansions and a recovery in regular-paid new business sales [1][4]. - The company expects strong par sales momentum to continue into FY25, with participating policy sales gaining traction prior to a settlement rate cut [1][4]. Financial Performance - For FY24, the company anticipates a 37% YoY increase in headline NBV and NPAT/OPAT growth of 57%/3% YoY [1]. - EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been revised up by 29%/6%/3% to RMB4.45/3.93/4.25, reflecting a more certain outlook for profitability and NBV growth [1][4]. - The NBV margin is expected to rise to 23.0% in 3Q24, up 5.9 percentage points YoY, driven by elevated sales of floating interest rate products and strengthened regular-paid new sales [1][4]. Investment Income - The company reported net fair value gains of RMB21.2 billion in 3Q24, a significant recovery from a net loss of RMB7.25 billion in 3Q23, benefiting from a rally in the equity market [1][4]. - The net investment yield landed at 3.9% in 9M24, with total investment yield at 6.3%, showing a positive trend driven by the equity market performance [1][4]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.4x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/BV, which is above the 3-year historical average [1][4]. - The report indicates a target valuation of RMB260.6 billion, with an implied P/EV of 0.55x and an implied P/BV of 1.12x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, with a revised target price of HK$14.00, representing a 15.9% upside from the current price of HK$12.08 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's net profit after tax (NPAT) grew 38.0% year-on-year to RMB26.75 billion for the first nine months of 2024, with a record high NPAT of RMB8.26 billion in Q3 2024, driven by significant fair value gains of RMB7.4 billion [1]. - The combined ratio (CoR) for non-auto insurance deteriorated to 100.5% in the first nine months of 2024, with Q3 CoR reaching 105.3%, attributed to increased catastrophic losses from non-auto claims [1][3]. - Auto CoR improved to 96.8% in the first nine months of 2024, contributing to a 30.6% year-on-year growth in auto underwriting premium (UWP) to RMB71.2 billion [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total investment income surged 70.4% year-on-year to RMB27.5 billion in the first nine months of 2024, with a significant increase in Q3 investment income driven by fair value gains [1][6]. - The report forecasts EPS for FY24E at RMB1.44, with subsequent years projected at RMB1.51 for FY25E and RMB1.60 for FY26E, reflecting an upward revision of 8% for FY24E [2][3]. - The combined ratio is expected to be 97.7% for FY24E, slightly improving to 97.4% in FY25E and 97.2% in FY26E [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.0x FY24E P/B, which is above the historical average, indicating a premium valuation [1][5]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase to 5.2% in FY24E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [2][9]. - The report highlights a long-term ROE of 13.5% and a target valuation of RMB275.7 billion for FY24E [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mindray, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [9][21]. Core Insights - Mindray reported a revenue of RMB 29.5 billion for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth, while the attributable net profit increased by 8.2% year-on-year to RMB 10.6 billion [2][5]. - The domestic market is under pressure, with a notable decline in revenue from public hospitals and IVD testing, particularly in lower-tier hospitals, leading to a 9.7% year-on-year drop in domestic revenue in Q3 2024 [2][5]. - The overseas business showed healthy growth, with a 18.6% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in Q3 2024, driven by strong performances in Europe, APAC, and Latin America [5][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB 37.4 billion, RMB 43.6 billion, and RMB 49.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 16.5%, and 14.0% [3][17]. - Attributable net profit estimates for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB 12.8 billion, RMB 14.7 billion, and RMB 16.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 10.7%, 14.8%, and 14.3% [3][17]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is projected at RMB 12.7 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB 10.58 [3][17]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Mindray is approximately RMB 336.7 billion, with a target price adjusted to RMB 328.81, indicating a 21.6% upside from the current price of RMB 270.50 [6][7]. - The stock has experienced a relative performance decline of 5.5% over the past month and 18.4% over the past six months [6]. Business Segments - The IVD segment saw domestic revenue growth of 17% year-on-year in 9M24, although the overall demand in lower-tier hospitals was negatively impacted by nationwide DRG implementation [5]. - The MIS segment reported over 10% year-on-year growth in domestic revenue in 9M24, driven by the strong uptake of the Resona A20 ultrasound system [5]. - Emerging businesses such as minimally invasive surgery and animal medical have shown significant growth, contributing over 10% to overseas revenue [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, BYD, with a revised target price of HK$350, up from HK$262, reflecting improved investor sentiment [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 gross margin of 21.9% exceeded expectations, providing confidence for sales forecasts for 4Q24 and FY25, despite higher SG&A and R&D expenses [2]. - The sales volume forecast for FY24 has been increased by 4% to 4.02 million units, with FY25 projected to rise 13% YoY to 4.55 million units [2]. - The company prioritizes market share and global expansion over rapid earnings growth, which may complicate forecasts for SG&A and R&D expenses [2]. Financial Performance - 3Q24 net profit was RMB11.6 billion, 15% lower than previous forecasts, attributed to unexpected forex losses despite higher government grants and VAT refunds [2]. - Revenue growth from FY21 to FY26 shows a significant increase, with FY24E revenue projected at RMB725.7 billion, up from RMB602.3 billion in FY23 [9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to slightly decrease from 20.6% in FY24E to 20.3% in FY25E, while net profit is projected to rise from RMB36.0 billion in FY24E to RMB47.5 billion in FY25E [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.9x in FY24E to 16.6x in FY25E, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, projected at 25.5% for FY25E, down slightly from 24.0% in FY24E [13]. Market Position - BYD continues to have the best resources to withstand the ongoing price war in the automotive sector, which supports its competitive position [2]. - The company’s aggressive overseas expansion strategy is expected to drive revenue growth, with selling expenses projected to rise in line with revenue growth [2].