整体而言，大摩预期新鸿基地产(00016)及恒基地产(00012)可能最大程度受惠于任何潜在楼市支持政 策，均予"增持"评级;虽然近期HIBOR回升，但美联储可能减息亦将带来支持。大摩较不看好九龙仓置 业(00004)认为其中国业务面临挑战，予"减持"评级。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，虽然住宅物业及零售市况趋稳，但市场普遍仍期待9月17日公布的新一份施政 报告会公布利好楼市的措施，当中包括将进一步削减楼价600万元以下住宅物业印花税、放宽资本投资 者入境计划要求以刺激豪宅投资需求、设立"购房资金通"计划，以及加快北部都会区土地收回及基建建 设。 零售市场方面，大摩指出虽然出台刺激措施的可能性较低，但若推出消费券等计划，通常可带动零售销 售，尤其利好领展房产基金(00823)旗下商场。该行又指，启德体育园开幕后本港不时举办大型体育及 娱乐活动，有助吸引各地旅客访港。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that while the residential property and retail market conditions are stabilizing, there are expectations for the Hong Kong government to announce favorable measures for the property market in the upcoming policy address on September 17 [1] - Proposed measures include further reducing stamp duty for residential properties priced below HKD 6 million, relaxing requirements for capital investors to stimulate luxury property investment demand, establishing a home purchase fund scheme, and accelerating land reclamation and infrastructure development in the Northern Metropolis [1] - Overall, Morgan Stanley anticipates that New World Development and Henderson Land Development may benefit the most from any potential property market support policies, maintaining an "overweight" rating for these companies [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent rise in HIBOR, the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide support for the market [1] - Morgan Stanley holds a less favorable view on Wharf Real Estate Investment Company, citing challenges in its mainland operations and assigning a "underweight" rating [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 262.13 points, an increase of 1.01%, closing at 26,200.26 points with a total turnover of HKD 288.21 billion [1] - The National Enterprises Index increased by 85.76 points, closing at 9,328.16 points, a rise of 0.93% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 73.95 points, closing at 5,902.69 points, reflecting a growth of 1.27% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings increased by 1.04%, closing at HKD 633.5 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing rose by 1.37%, closing at HKD 444.6 [1] - China Mobile saw a rise of 0.35%, closing at HKD 87.05 [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 1.95%, closing at HKD 104.4 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings rose by 1.49%, closing at HKD 38.1 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by 4.28%, closing at HKD 97.5 [1] - Henderson Land Development rose by 2.37%, closing at HKD 27.68 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China increased by 2.06%, closing at HKD 4.46 [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 2.84%, closing at HKD 7.97 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 1.87%, closing at HKD 6 [1] - Ping An Insurance rose by 0.69%, closing at HKD 56.55 [1] - China Life Insurance increased by 1.85%, closing at HKD 23.12 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation rose by 0.95%, closing at HKD 4.23 [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation increased by 0.81%, closing at HKD 7.45 [1] - CNOOC Limited saw a rise of 0.2%, closing at HKD 20.18 [1]

Market Overview - The US non-farm employment data has been significantly revised downwards, leading to sustained expectations for interest rate cuts. The Hong Kong stock market has risen again, with the Hang Seng Index breaking the 26,000 mark, reaching a nearly four-year high. The index closed up 1.01% or 262.13 points at 26,200.26, with a total turnover of HKD 288.21 billion [1] Blue Chip Performance - Lenovo Group (00992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising 4.63% to HKD 11.31, contributing 5.88 points to the Hang Seng Index. Huatai Securities expects Lenovo to benefit from strong demand for AI products in the second half of the year, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of HKD 16 [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include JD Logistics (02618) up 4.45%, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) up 4.28%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw declines of 2.77% and 2.22%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large technology stocks performed well, with Bilibili rising over 7% and JD up over 3%. Cloud computing stocks also saw gains, with Kingsoft Cloud rising nearly 9% [3] - Oracle's cloud business showed strong performance, with cloud revenue growing 28% year-on-year and cloud infrastructure revenue increasing 55%. The company expects cloud infrastructure revenue to reach USD 18 billion in FY2026, a 77% increase from FY2025 [4] Real Estate Sector - Hong Kong real estate stocks generally rose, with Sun Hung Kai Properties up 4.28% and Hang Lung Properties (00101) up 2.79% [4] - The Hong Kong government is set to release its 2025 policy address, with expectations of further reductions in property stamp duties and measures to attract more mainland visitors [5] Lithium Sector - Lithium stocks faced significant declines, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) down 7.02% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) down 7.97%. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fall below RMB 70,000 per ton due to a resurgence of supply surplus [6][5] Popular Stocks - Yunfeng Financial (00376) surged 27.83% after receiving approval to upgrade its securities license to offer virtual asset trading services [7] - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) reached a new high, rising 27.57% after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list [8] - Longfor Group (03380) rose 9.47% after reaching a revised agreement with creditors regarding offshore debt restructuring [9] - Shandong Molong (00568) increased by 7.92% amid rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government is expected to announce its policy address next Wednesday, with low likelihood for the immediate launch of the "Home Purchase Fund" and no expectation for a nationwide plan in the short term [1] - The potential for further relaxation of investment restrictions for capital investors in luxury properties is considered moderate [1] - There is an expectation that the "multiple-entry" individual travel visa may be expanded to residents of other Greater Bay Area cities beyond Shenzhen [1] Group 2 - The new policy address is anticipated to benefit developers such as Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and Sino Land [1] - An increase in mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong is expected to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment, Hysan Development, and New World Development [1] - Concerns over capital expenditure may negatively impact the development of North District for MTR, but could accelerate the reclamation of agricultural land, which is seen as positive for Henderson Land [1] - Progress in the inclusion of REITs in the mutual market access is expected to have a positive impact on Link REIT [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by market expectations of favorable government policies in the upcoming 2025 policy address [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New World Development (00016) rose by 4.33% to HKD 97.55 - Hang Lung Properties (00101) increased by 2.33% to HKD 8.8 - Hysan Development (00012) gained 2.07% to HKD 27.6 - Henderson Land Development (00014) climbed 1.71% to HKD 16.08 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Expectations - The Hong Kong government is set to announce the 2025 policy address on Wednesday, 17th - UBS anticipates the government will reduce stamp duty on residential properties valued between HKD 4 million to HKD 6 million - Proposed initiatives include a "Home Purchase Fund" plan, further relaxation of capital investor entry qualifications, and measures to attract more mainland visitors [1] Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Developers - The new policy address is expected to benefit developers such as Hysan Development, New World Development, and Sino Land - Increased mainland visitor traffic is likely to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development - Accelerated development in the Northern Metropolis may pose negative implications for MTR Corporation due to rising capital expenditure concerns, but could positively impact land reclamation for Henderson Land Development [1] Group 4: REITs and Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market connectivity will have a positive effect on Link REIT [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by market expectations of favorable government policies in the upcoming 2025 policy address [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) rose by 4.33% to HKD 97.55 - Hang Lung Properties (00101) increased by 2.33% to HKD 8.8 - Henderson Land Development (00012) gained 2.07% to HKD 27.6 - Hysan Development (00014) climbed 1.71% to HKD 16.08 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Expectations - The Hong Kong government is set to announce the 2025 policy address on Wednesday, 17th [1] - UBS anticipates the government will further reduce the stamp duty on residential properties valued between HKD 4 million to HKD 6 million [1] - Proposed measures include the establishment of a "Home Purchase Fund" plan and further relaxation of residential property investment qualifications for capital investors [1] Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Developers - The new policy address is expected to benefit developers such as Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and Sino Land [1] - Increased mainland visitor arrivals are projected to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development [1] - Accelerated development in the Northern Metropolis may pose negative implications for MTR Corporation due to rising capital expenditure concerns, but could positively impact land reclamation for Henderson Land [1] Group 4: REITs and Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market connectivity will have a positive effect on Link REIT [1]

Core Viewpoint - New World Development's fiscal year 2025 core net profit is expected to grow by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, primarily benefiting from strong profits in mainland property development and reduced financial costs, despite weak profits from Hong Kong property development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The investment property performance is mixed, with Hong Kong office buildings outperforming the market [1] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The IGC in Hong Kong and ITC in Shanghai are set to be completed and opened in fiscal year 2026, supporting recurring income growth [1] - The target price for New World Development is set at HKD 103, implying a forecast yield of 4% for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been revised down by 9% and 11% respectively due to declining sales profits in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dahua Jixiang's report indicates that Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) is expected to see a 0.5% growth in basic net profit for the fiscal year 2025, aligning with expectations, primarily benefiting from strong profits in Chinese property development and a decrease in financial costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The basic net profit growth of 0.5% for fiscal year 2025 is mainly attributed to robust profits from property development in China and reduced financial costs [1] - The performance of investment properties is mixed, with Hong Kong office buildings outperforming the market [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The completion and opening of IGC in Hong Kong and ITC in Shanghai are anticipated in fiscal year 2026, which will support recurring income growth [1] - Management has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Sun Hung Kai Properties, with a target price of HKD 103, implying a forecasted yield of 4% for fiscal year 2026 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，新鸿基地产(00016)2025财年基础净利润增长0.5%，基本符 合预期，主要受惠于中国物业发展利润强劲及财务成本下降。投资物业表现不一，香港写字楼表现优于 市场。香港的IGC和上海的ITC将于2026财年完工并开业，支持经常性收入增长；管理层承诺将派息比 率维持在50%。该行维持对新地的"买入"评级，目标价103港元，意味着2026财年预测收益率达4%。 ...