Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that investors have a positive attitude towards Hong Kong real estate, prioritizing real estate developers, Central office buildings, and luxury retail, while non-essential retail is disappointing [1] - Investors expect property prices to enter an upward cycle this year, with a projected increase of 5% to 10%, and believe that prices have passed the turning point [1] - Approximately 10% of investors are skeptical about the price trends in 2027 and 2028, citing that the rebound in transaction volume is mainly driven by pent-up demand [1] Group 2 - Investors' demand, currently accounting for about 10% to 15% of the market share, depends on rental yields and capital markets, with potential stabilization in residential rents if talent inflow slows [1] - The report highlights that Hong Kong real estate stocks remain attractive in valuation compared to other Asia-Pacific regions, but companies need to demonstrate uniqueness and actual performance to support further stock price revaluation [1] - Investors are optimistic about Central office buildings but have a lukewarm view on the retail sector, favoring companies such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hongkong Land, Hang Lung Properties, and Swire Properties [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market views on companies such as Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Hysan Development, while there are recommendations to reduce holdings in Link REIT and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [2] - Less discussion surrounds companies like Cheung Kong Group, Kerry Properties, Regal Real Estate Investment Trust, Champion REIT, and Wharf Holdings [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that investors have a positive attitude towards Hong Kong real estate, prioritizing real estate developers, Central office spaces, and luxury retail, while non-essential retail is viewed less favorably [1] - Investors expect property prices to enter an upward cycle this year, with a projected increase of 5% to 10%, although about 10% of investors are skeptical about the sustainability of prices in 2027 and 2028 due to reliance on pent-up demand [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong real estate stocks remains attractive compared to other Asia-Pacific regions, but companies need to demonstrate uniqueness and actual performance to support further stock price revaluation [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market views on companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), and Hysan Development (00014), while Link REIT (00823) and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) are seen as sell targets [2] - Less discussion surrounds companies like Cheung Kong Property (01113), Kerry Properties (00683), Regal Real Estate Investment Trust (01881), and others [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong residential market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with new home sales volume approaching the peak levels of 2019, and second-hand home transactions reaching a new high since 2022. The inventory de-stocking cycle has significantly reduced from 125 months to 61 months [1][8]. - The retail property market is still under pressure, but rental declines are narrowing, and vacancy rates in core areas are decreasing. Office rents and occupancy rates are under pressure, with significant regional market differentiation [1][19][25]. - The residential market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates and an increase in rental yields. Over 80% of residential properties are projected to achieve a balance between supply and rental demand [1][34][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Review - Residential transaction volumes are increasing, with new home sales reaching 21,000 units in 2025, a 99.1% increase from the cycle's bottom [8][12]. - The inventory pressure has eased, with the de-stocking cycle for new homes dropping significantly [16]. - Retail property rents are still adjusting, but the rate of decline is slowing, and some core areas are showing signs of recovery [19][21]. - Office rents have decreased by 21.1% since their peak in June 2019, with rising vacancy rates [25][26]. 2. Outlook for the Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The residential market is expected to continue its recovery, with structural differentiation being a key feature [34]. - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to support the Hong Kong real estate market's recovery [34][37]. - The proportion of properties achieving a balance between supply and rental demand is expected to increase, enhancing home buying demand [39][40]. - Talent attraction policies are anticipated to boost potential home buying demand as more skilled individuals move to Hong Kong [44][50]. 3. Valuation Elasticity of Hong Kong Property Companies - Current valuations of major Hong Kong property companies are at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [1][3]. - Companies with a higher proportion of development business and land reserves are expected to exhibit greater valuation elasticity [1][3]. - The top three property companies in terms of sales in 2025 are Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, with significant year-on-year sales growth for Henderson and Sino [1][3].

花旗表示，投资者预期香港楼价在今年将进入上升周期，若政府加快土地出售，可能带来供应问题。该 行表示，相较亚太其他地区，香港地产股的估值(NAV折让或市账率)仍具吸引力，但公司开始需要显示 独特性和实际业绩，来支撑股价的进一步重估。 星展发布研报称，新鸿基地产为香港最大地产发展商，拥有庞大土地储备及稳健投资物业组合，构成其 核心优势，约1,970万平方呎的可发展土储，其中有不少为农地，预计可受惠于北部都会区加速发展。 该行指出，公司去年通过政府招标及土地用途转换等多种方式，收购了六幅住宅用地，预料合计可提供 超过300万平方呎的应占总楼面面积，凭借有利的土地成本，估计相关项目税前利润率超过30%，将支 持公司盈利复苏。 新鸿基地产(00016)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.76%，报121.1港元，成交额6.07亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) has seen a nearly 6% increase in stock price, reflecting positive investor sentiment driven by its strong land reserves and investment property portfolio [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Sun Hung Kai Properties is the largest real estate developer in Hong Kong, with a substantial land reserve of approximately 19.7 million square feet, including significant agricultural land that is expected to benefit from the accelerated development of the Northern Metropolis [1] - The company acquired six residential land parcels last year through government tenders and land use conversions, which are expected to provide over 3 million square feet of attributable gross floor area, supporting a projected pre-tax profit margin exceeding 30% due to favorable land costs [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Citigroup indicates that investors anticipate a rising cycle for Hong Kong property prices this year, with potential supply issues if the government accelerates land sales [1] - Compared to other regions in Asia-Pacific, Hong Kong real estate stocks remain attractive in terms of valuation (NAV discount or price-to-book ratio), but companies need to demonstrate uniqueness and actual performance to support further stock price revaluation [1]

Group 1 - Investors have a positive outlook on Hong Kong real estate, prioritizing real estate developers, Central office buildings, and luxury retail, while non-essential retail is disappointing [1] - There is an expectation that property prices will enter an upward cycle this year, with a significant increase of 5% to 10% anticipated [1] - Investors are optimistic about Central office buildings but have a lukewarm view on the retail sector, focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hongkong Land, Hang Lung Properties, and Swire Properties [1]

郭基煇建言广东产业生态：优化首店服务、强化总部支撑 中新网广州1月26日电 (记者 蔡敏婕)政协第十三届广东省委员会第四次会议25日在广州开幕。广东省政 协常委、新鸿基地产执行董事郭基煇当天在联组会议上，建议以首发经济和总部经济为抓手，将广东建 成全球消费新品首发地、总部经济枢纽区。 广东省政协常委、新鸿基地产执行董事郭基煇。受访者 供图 郭基煇指出，广东正加快建设具有国际竞争力的现代化产业体系，近期开展的"广货行天下"活动，为全 省消费升级注入动力。他提到，广东省"十五五"规划建议在"大力提振消费"专栏中明确"发展首发经 济，以广州、深圳等城市为重点，推进新品首发、渠道首店、活动首秀首展"，并在另一专栏提出"培育 总部经济，推动服务业高端化发展"。 "''广货行天下'关键在于'广店'能不能'引天下'。因此，做好首发经济和总部经济，必将有力激活内需、 促进国内国际双循环。"郭基煇说。 三是实施弹性安保与补贴政策，根据活动规模对安保要求提出弹性安排，减轻首发活动主办商的成本压 力，以吸引更多品牌落户天河路、白鹅潭等核心区域。 而在总部经济方面，郭基煇表示，广州、深圳已培育和吸引华为、腾讯、小鹏、比亚迪、顺丰等一 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The monitored enterprises acquired a total of 30 land parcels with a total transaction amount of 14.5 billion yuan [4] - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 8.44 billion yuan [4] Land Acquisition - In Shanghai, Yuexiu Property secured a residential land parcel in Pudong New District for 4.57 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,035 yuan/m² [8] - In Huzhou, a residential land parcel was acquired by Deqing County Transportation Engineering Construction Co. for 323 million yuan, with a floor price of 5,954 yuan/m² [9] - In Dalian, a joint venture between Poly and JinDi acquired a site for 736 million yuan, with a floor price of 7,454 yuan/m² [10] - In Wenzhou, Zhongnan Industry secured a residential land parcel for 403 million yuan, with a floor price of 12,582 yuan/m² [11] Investment Financing - Xinjing New Town Development Group successfully issued 440 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term at an interest rate of 2.7% [12][13] - Lianfa Group issued 250 million yuan in green medium-term notes with a 3+3 year term at an interest rate of 2.6% [15] - Xinda Real Estate received approval for a company bond issuance of 5.75 billion yuan [16] - Shanghai Construction Group successfully issued 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a 5+N year term at an interest rate of 2.9% [17] Corporate Dynamics - China Overseas Development signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Sun Hung Kai Properties to deepen collaboration in project construction and other areas [18]

Market Overview - The US stock market indices showed mixed performance on Friday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR closing at 26,719.08 points, down by 30.43 points or 0.11% compared to the Hong Kong close [1]. Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 130.896, up by 0.69% from the Hong Kong close [2]. - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 598.184, up by 0.54% from the Hong Kong close [2]. Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings (HKD 595.000) saw a decrease of HKD 2.500, or -0.42%, with its ADR price at HKD 598.184, reflecting an increase of HKD 3.184 or 0.54% [3]. - Alibaba Group (HKD 168.500) increased by HKD 3.700, or 2.25%, with its ADR price at HKD 168.834, up by HKD 0.334 or 0.20% [3]. - HSBC Holdings (HKD 130.000) rose by HKD 0.300, or 0.23%, with its ADR price at HKD 130.896, up by HKD 0.896 or 0.69% [3]. - Xiaomi Group (HKD 36.240) increased by HKD 1.000, or 2.84%, with its ADR price at HKD 36.287, up by HKD 0.047 or 0.13% [3]. - AIA Group (HKD 83.050) rose by HKD 0.550, or 0.67%, with its ADR price at HKD 83.077, up by HKD 0.027 or 0.03% [3]. - Meituan (HKD 97.550) increased by HKD 0.550, or 0.57%, with its ADR price at HKD 97.735, up by HKD 0.185 or 0.19% [3]. - Kuaishou (HKD 81.250) rose by HKD 2.150, or 2.72%, with its ADR price at HKD 82.648, up by HKD 1.398 or 1.72% [3]. - Ctrip Group (HKD 485.400) increased by HKD 3.800, or 0.79%, with its ADR price at HKD 490.273, up by HKD 4.873 or 1.00% [3].

一则声讨信，让老牌房企新鸿基地产陷入争议。 1月22日，市场流出一则《致新鸿基地产主席郭炳联的公开信》，一名自称购买了滨江凯旋门的购房者 认为，新鸿基地产在挑选合作银行时没有挑选具备审批大额按揭能力的银行，导致自己未能在合同约定 的时间内支付剩余房款，而被要求解除购房合同。 按其所言，2024年4月30日，该名购房者与开发商签订了关于购买上海浦东滨江凯旋门三期住宅的正式 合同，并支付了30%首付款。签约当日及之前，其与开发商指定的银行对按揭资格进行了3次书面确 认。 但后期，该名购房者发现开发商指定的银行没有能力审批大额按揭，于是自行找到了2家国有银行完成 了审批。可是，开发商却拒绝配合银行办理放款手续，并将其告上法庭，要求解除购房合同并赔偿1200 余万元。 根据网上房地产数据，该项目于2012年3月首开，推出房源195套，至今仍为"在售"状态。 四年后，也就是2016年，滨江凯旋门推出一批商住公寓房源，即凯旋汇。然而，次年上海商办项目被强 制暂停网签，该批房源也随之被暂停网签，目前该批房源仍处于暂停销售状态。 2020年，滨江凯旋门二开，推出房源175套。 上述购房者所购买的三期住宅则于2024年4月开盘 ...