Core Insights - The gaming stocks have collectively risen, with Sands China up 5.04%, Wynn Macau up 4.6%, Melco International Development up 4.45%, and Galaxy Entertainment up 3.94% [1] Industry Summary - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The brokerage anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% in the next two years, reaching 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is projected to increase by 19% in 2025 but decrease by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Company Insights - Huatai Securities notes that despite temporary disruptions from typhoons during the National Day holiday and late September, the number of visitors to Macau has met government expectations and exceeded levels from the same period in 2019 when excluding weather impacts [1] - The daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showed a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Key drivers for the sector post-holiday include policies like "one permit, multiple entries" between Zhuhai and Macau, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks collectively rose, with Sands China increasing by 5.04% to HKD 18.98, Wynn Macau up by 4.6% to HKD 6.59, Melco International Development rising by 4.45% to HKD 4.69, and Galaxy Entertainment gaining 3.94% to HKD 38.48 [1] - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The firm anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels, while VIP gaming revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2025 and decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities estimates that the number of visitors to Macau, after excluding weather impacts, aligns with government expectations and exceeds levels from the same period in 2019, with daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The core drivers for the gaming sector post-holiday include policy benefits from the "one permit, multiple entries" scheme, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Core Points - The strategic partnership between Galaxy Macau, Damai Entertainment, and Macau Tong has been renewed for three years, aiming to enhance the cultural and entertainment industry in Macau and the Greater Bay Area [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The three parties will continue to host diverse cultural events in Macau, including concerts, stage plays, award ceremonies, immersive performances, and sports events over the next three years [3][4] - There will be a comprehensive collaboration on marketing, ticketing systems, and talent acquisition in the cultural entertainment sector [3][4] - The partnership will extend beyond Macau, exploring cooperation on projects in non-Macau venues to establish a performing arts hub in the Greater Bay Area [3][4] Group 2: Ticketing and Technology - Damai Entertainment will enhance the ticketing system in collaboration with Galaxy Macau and assist Macau Tong in upgrading its ticketing technology and hardware [3][4] - The new ticketing system, set to launch in 2024, will support high-demand ticket sales and include multiple security features to ensure a smooth purchasing experience [4] - Previous collaborations have successfully brought major performances and events from mainland China to Macau, enhancing the region's entertainment offerings [4]

该行略微下调今年的博彩收入预测至同比增长8%，仍然看好金沙中国(01928)及银河娱乐(00027)，均 予"买入"评级。另外，预期永利澳门(01128)第三季度业绩将超出预期，或在短期内为其股价带来正面 动力。 高盛发布研报称，10月首12日的总博彩收入同比减少5%，较预期为低，对比本月首5日的博彩收入则同 比增加3%。考虑到台风及前往海外国家旅游等因素，该行认为近期正向趋势已经逆转的论调属言之尚 早。该行相信11及12月至明年2月的同比比较基础仍相当有利。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which is lower than expected, while the revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent positive trend in gaming revenue has reversed, but it is too early to make definitive statements due to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The firm slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year increase, while maintaining a positive outlook on Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] Group 2 - Expectations for Wynn Macau (01128) indicate that its third-quarter performance will exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a 5% year-on-year decrease in total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October, which is lower than expected, while the first 5 days of the month showed a 3% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Trends - The recent positive trend in gaming revenue is considered premature to declare as reversed, influenced by factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November, December, and February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts and Company Ratings - The gaming revenue forecast for this year has been slightly adjusted to an 8% year-on-year growth, with a positive outlook for Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), both rated as "Buy" [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) is expected to exceed third-quarter performance expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Industry Overview - Despite the impact of a super typhoon in late September, Macau's total gaming revenue for the third quarter reached MOP 62.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, marking the highest quarterly gaming revenue since the post-pandemic reopening [1] - The industry EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 2.07 billion [1] Company Insights - Citigroup's top pick is Galaxy Entertainment, maintaining a target price of HKD 54 and a "Buy" rating [1] - Wynn Macau's rating has been upgraded to "Buy," with a target price of HKD 7.2; although the company has lost market share this year due to the lack of new product launches, improvements are anticipated with the completion of the Chairman's Club expansion in the VIP gaming area at Wynn Palace in the first quarter of next year [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks have rebounded after a continuous decline, with Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau rising approximately 3%, while Sands China and Melco International Development increased nearly 2%, and MGM China rose about 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, but there was a 3% year-on-year increase compared to the first 5 days of the month [1] - The firm believes that the recent reversal of the positive trend is premature, considering factors such as typhoons and overseas travel, and maintains a favorable year-on-year comparison basis for November through February of the following year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its gaming revenue forecast for the year to an 8% year-on-year growth, while remaining optimistic about Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed expectations, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that total gaming revenue for the first 12 days of October decreased by 5% year-on-year, which was lower than expected, while revenue for the first 5 days of the month increased by 3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Trends - The recent trend reversal is considered premature by Goldman Sachs, attributing it to factors such as typhoons and overseas travel [1] - The year-on-year comparison basis for November and December through February next year remains favorable [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts - The firm slightly lowered its annual gaming revenue growth forecast to 8% year-on-year [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, both receiving "buy" ratings [1] Group 3: Company Performance Expectations - Wynn Macau's third-quarter performance is expected to exceed forecasts, potentially providing positive momentum for its stock price in the short term [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441 points, down 1.73%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.62%, dropping below the 6,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks led the market downturn, with semiconductor stocks also suffering substantial losses [2][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with notable drops including Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 13% and SMIC down over 8% [4][5] - Gold and precious metals stocks also fell sharply, with Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold both dropping over 6% [6] - The gambling sector continued its downward trend, with New World Development down over 8% and Galaxy Entertainment down over 5% [11][12] - Conversely, banking stocks showed resilience, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 6% and China Merchants Bank up over 4% [13][14] - The film and entertainment sector performed well, with Huayi Brothers Media surging nearly 20% [15][16] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks despite the market volatility [17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions may increase market uncertainty, but they remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [19]