Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-B" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to high base effects leading to short-term sales pressure, but the product structure upgrade continues to enhance profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved cost conditions and a favorable sales environment in the second half of 2024, driven by events like the UEFA European Championship and the Olympics [4]. Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2024, the company's beer sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with an average price per ton of 4,647.44 yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year [2]. - The Qingdao brand achieved a sales volume of 1.322 million kiloliters, a decrease of 5.64% year-on-year, while other brands saw a decline of 10.40% [2]. - The mid-to-high-end brand sales volume was 960,000 kiloliters, down 2.44% year-on-year, but its market share increased by 2.31 percentage points to 43.96% [2]. Profit Analysis - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 40.44% in Q1 2024, an increase of 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and lower raw material costs [3]. - The cost per ton decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, while the operating expense ratio was 15.01%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 15.74%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Outlook for 2024 - The company anticipates good sales growth in the second half of 2024 due to seasonal demand and low base effects [4]. - The cancellation of double-reverse policies on barley is expected to improve raw material costs, alongside declining prices for packaging materials [4]. - The ongoing recovery in dining and tourism sectors is likely to support the high-end product mix and profit elasticity [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 35.424 billion yuan, 36.946 billion yuan, and 38.474 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [4]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 4.943 billion yuan, 5.618 billion yuan, and 6.325 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.8%, 13.7%, and 12.6% respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 2026 are 3.62 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 4.64 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.9x, 21.0x, and 18.7x [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 102.76 CNY, based on a 28x PE for 2024 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion CNY, an increase of 10.06% [4]. - The sales performance of the Qingdao brand and products priced in the mid-to-high-end segment showed better results compared to other brands and products [5]. - The company experienced a slight increase in ton price, which contributed to profit growth despite a decrease in sales volume [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.58% year-on-year, with a ton price of 4,647.44 CNY, up 2.58% year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 40.44%, an increase of 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 15.74%, up 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 35.771 billion CNY, 37.598 billion CNY, and 39.420 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.005 billion CNY, 5.819 billion CNY, and 6.579 billion CNY [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company experienced a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year [5]. - The report indicates that despite a high base affecting short-term sales, the product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for 44.0% of total sales, reflecting strong momentum in premiumization [5]. - The gross margin improved significantly to 40.4%, driven by a decrease in average costs and an increase in product prices [5]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 3.59, 4.04, and 4.44 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24-28 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable value range of 86.17-100.54 yuan [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, with total beer sales of 2.184 million kiloliters, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [5]. - The average price per product increased by 2.6%, while the average cost decreased by 1.0%, contributing to the improved gross margin [5]. Profitability - The net profit margin increased to 15.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company rose to 1.597 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [5]. - The report notes a reduction in selling expenses, which contributed to the optimization of profitability [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually overcome the high base effect in the second quarter, with the summer beer season anticipated to drive performance [5]. - The projected EPS growth indicates a positive outlook for the company's financial health in the coming years [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06% year-on-year [1] - The overall sales volume in Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with the main brand, Qingdao Beer, experiencing a 5.6% decline in sales volume [1] - The company has successfully improved its profitability, with a gross margin of 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in the sales proportion of high-end products and a decrease in raw material costs [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - Current price: 81.96 yuan - Target price: 93.92 yuan - Target period: 6 months - Total shares: 1,364.20 million [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue: 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.19% year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit: 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year - Q1 2024 gross margin: 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit margin: 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Sales and Pricing - Q1 2024 sales volume: 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year - Q1 2024 average price per ton: 4,647.44 yuan per kiloliter, up 12.00% quarter-on-quarter and 2.58% year-on-year - High-end product sales volume accounted for 43.96% of total sales, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Future Projections - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 35.98 billion yuan, 37.996 billion yuan, and 39.937 billion yuan respectively - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 5.125 billion yuan, 5.747 billion yuan, and 6.226 billion yuan respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 22X, 19X, and 18X [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan (down 5.19% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan (up 10.06% year-on-year) [1][3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased, and cost improvements were realized, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 16% [3]. - Despite a high base, the company is expected to stabilize sales in subsequent quarters, which will enhance cost elasticity [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters (down 7.6% year-on-year), with a ton revenue increase of 2.6% [2]. - The main brand's sales volume was 1.322 million kiloliters (down 5.6%), while the mid-to-high-end segment saw a sales volume of 960,000 kiloliters (down 2.4%) [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with corresponding revenue amounts of 35.2 billion, 36.4 billion, and 37.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profit growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% for 2024-2026, with net profit amounts of 5 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan [3][4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24X, 21X, and 19X, respectively [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.49% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 4.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.02% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 3.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 23.67 [4]. Market Position - The company continues to see an upward trend in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, indicating a positive structural upgrade [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of brand positioning and product upgrades, with new endorsements expected to enhance market presence [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.06% [1] - The sales expense ratio decreased, and cost improvements were realized, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 16% [3] - Despite a high base, the company maintains an upward trend in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, indicating a positive structural upgrade [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, while the revenue per ton increased by 2.6% [2] - The main brand's sales volume was 1.322 million kiloliters, down 5.6%, but its market share increased by 1.2 percentage points to 60.5% [2] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35.19 billion yuan, 36.41 billion yuan, and 37.56 billion yuan respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 5.02 billion yuan, 5.75 billion yuan, and 6.42 billion yuan respectively [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24X, 21X, and 19X respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.78 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 61.39 billion yuan [5] - The current price of the stock is 87.12 yuan, with a 52-week high of 112.15 yuan and a low of 67.56 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6][15]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in sales and revenue compared to peers, with a 7.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q1 2024, while the average selling price increased by 2.6%, indicating a slowdown in product structure improvement [4][10]. - The company's gross margin improved due to a 1.0% decrease in unit cost and a 12% reduction in sales expenses, leading to a 10% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][10]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of product structure upgrades and cost reduction trends in 2024, given the weak performance in mid-to-high-end products [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 34,756 million, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 5,006 million, a 17.3% increase [9][11]. - The report adjusts the target price for Qingdao Beer A-shares to RMB 86.2 and H-shares to HKD 65.1, based on a valuation of 15x and 10x EV/EBITDA for 2024, respectively [4][6][15]. - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 23.7 for A-shares and 14.8 for H-shares in 2024 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is maintained at "Add" [1][8]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a decline in revenue due to pressure on product sales, but net profit increased. The revenue for Q1 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.19% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin and net margin both improved, with the gross margin at 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin at 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to a decrease in raw material costs and an ongoing optimization of the product mix [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in on-premise consumption and a decrease in raw material costs, indicating potential for profit improvement in the short term. As a leading domestic beer brand, Qingdao Beer has significant brand value and is accelerating its expansion into the high-end market, which is expected to drive price increases in the future [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, beer sales volume decreased by 7.58% year-on-year to 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand's sales down 5.64% to 1.322 million kiloliters. The sales of mid-to-high-end products decreased by 2.44% to 960,000 kiloliters, while other brands saw a decline of 10.40% to 862,000 kiloliters [2]. - The company forecasts revenue for 2024 to be 36.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.991 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.95% [3][6]. Profitability Metrics - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for Q1 2024 were 12.83%, 3.40%, and 0.18%, respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses and a slight increase in management and R&D expenses [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 3.66 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 20, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [3] - The company has shown resilience in profit performance, exceeding previous expectations due to cost benefits and continuous efficiency improvements [5][6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company achieved a sales volume of 2.184 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, with an average price per ton of 4,647.4 yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4] - The main brand, Qingdao Beer, and other brands had sales volumes of 1.322 million tons and 0.862 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 10.4% [4] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and reduced cost pressures [5] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The overall expense ratio for the company was 15.0%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a reduction in sales expenses [5] - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items were 15.7% and 13.6%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.2 and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The sales peak for the beer industry typically occurs in Q2 and Q3, which account for 60-70% of annual revenue, making upcoming sales critical for the company's performance [6] - Anticipated events such as the Olympics and the European Cup are expected to boost beer sales, leading to a positive outlook for the company's performance in the upcoming quarters [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.707 billion yuan, 37.436 billion yuan, and 38.857 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.59 yuan, 3.97 yuan, and 4.34 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [7][9]

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月05日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 买入 高基数压制销量增速，成本下行红利释放 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 公司公布2024年第一季度报告，2024年第一季度，公司实现营业总收入101.50亿 食品饮料·非白酒 元，同比-5.19%；实现归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%；实现扣非归母净利润 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。收入增长承压，盈利能力改善较多。 021-60933131 021-60933124 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnyangyuan4@guosen.com.cn S0980523090001 S0980523090003 去年同期高基数压制销量增速，产品结构升级延续。第一季度，公司营业收入同比 基础数据 -5.2%，拆分量价来看，销量同比-7.5%，主要受到去年同期高基数、春节后啤酒消费 转淡的影响。虽总销量承压，但销量结构仍有提升，青岛主品牌销量占比提升至60.5% 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 （同比+1.2pct），其中中高端以上产品销量占比提升至44.0%（同比 ...