Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong capital market is entering a significant policy dividend period, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange positioned to embark on a new journey due to favorable external conditions [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Market Cooperation Measures - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced five measures to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong, including expanding the eligible products for Stock Connect, incorporating REITs into Stock Connect, and supporting the inclusion of RMB trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][11][12]. - The ETF market in Hong Kong has seen substantial growth, with annual trading volume increasing from USD 1.7 billion in 2003 to USD 435.1 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32% [15][16]. 2. Expectations from Two Sessions Proposals - Proposals from the Two Sessions are expected to gradually materialize, including potential reductions in dividend tax for Hong Kong Stock Connect investors, which could enhance investment interest in high-dividend assets [25][28]. - The report anticipates that the expansion of financial derivatives related to mainland assets will further attract overseas investors to the Hong Kong market [10][25]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at HKD 121.24 billion, HKD 131.63 billion, and HKD 141.33 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 2.21%, 8.57%, and 7.37% respectively [3][10]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28.17x for 2024, 25.95x for 2025, and 24.17x for 2026 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][6][16] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 2.97 billion HKD for Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, primarily due to market weakness [5][6] - Total revenue and other income for Q1 2024 were 5.201 billion HKD, down 6% year-on-year [5][6] - The report estimates total revenue for the company to be 22.874 billion HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [12][16] Financial Performance Summary - The company's Q1 2024 revenue from the cash market segment was 1.881 billion HKD, a decrease of 11.6% year-on-year, accounting for 36% of total revenue [2] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market decreased by 22% to 99.4 billion HKD [2] - The average daily trading volume for the Northbound and Southbound of the Stock Connect was 133 billion HKD and 31 billion HKD, representing increases of 37.1% and decreases of 17.3% respectively [2] - The bond market's Northbound daily trading volume increased by 22%, reaching a record high for the quarter [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The estimated revenues for the company for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 22.874 billion HKD, 24.639 billion HKD, and 26.160 billion HKD respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 6% [12][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.231 billion HKD, 14.190 billion HKD, and 14.894 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 7%, and 5% [12][16] Valuation - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 320.00 and 333.40 HKD, corresponding to a 2024E PE ratio of 30.7 to 31.9 times [6][16] - The report uses a two-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, assuming a dividend payout ratio of 90% and a long-term growth rate of 4% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The report indicates that while the company's revenue and other income decreased year-on-year in Q1 2024, there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement. The performance in the derivatives and commodities markets, as well as the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, remains resilient [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the cash market decreased year-on-year, but there was a significant increase in the derivatives and commodities markets, indicating strong growth potential [7]. Financial Highlights - For the fiscal year 2023, the company's revenue and other income were HKD 202.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is HKD 211.0 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [6][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was HKD 118.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The expected net profit for 2024 is HKD 120.4 billion, showing a modest growth of 1.5% [6][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 23.5%, with projections of 23.2% for 2024 and 24.4% for 2026 [6][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was HKD 9.37, with an expected increase to HKD 9.69 in 2024 [6][11]. Market Data - As of April 25, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was HKD 246.8, with a total market capitalization of HKD 3,129 billion and total assets amounting to HKD 494.8 billion [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 312 HKD per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by 5%-15% over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.2 billion HKD for Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6%. The decrease is primarily attributed to a drop in trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market, with the average daily turnover (ADT) falling by 22% to 99.36 billion HKD compared to Q1 2023 [1][2]. - The decline in revenue was somewhat mitigated by growth in derivatives and commodity trading, with net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 at 2.97 billion HKD, down 13% year-on-year. The EBITDA margin decreased to 72%, a decline of 4 percentage points [1][2]. - The report highlights that the stock trading revenue was impacted by the macroeconomic environment, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in the cash segment revenue, while settlement fees benefited from a 37% increase in northbound trading [1][2]. - The derivatives and commodities market showed resilience, with trading volumes for derivatives and LME metal contracts increasing by 14% and 31% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - Investment income contributed significantly to the company's performance, with a net return rate on margin and settlement funds rising to 1.8% from 1.6% in the previous year, although total investment income decreased by 13% to 1.34 billion HKD [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 13.2 billion HKD, with an earnings per share (EPS) of 10.41 HKD. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 30 times [2][3]. - The revenue forecast for the upcoming years shows a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 22.77 billion HKD in 2024, 25.91 billion HKD in 2025, and 29.66 billion HKD in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 11% and above [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 342 HKD, based on a 35X PE for 2024 [8][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, with expectations for gradual recovery in the market [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 6% year-on-year, but a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential for recovery [5][6]. - The decline in profits is attributed to reduced trading volumes and lower IPO activity, but strong performance in derivatives trading has partially offset these declines [5][6]. Financial Overview - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue and other income of 52.01 billion HKD, with a core business revenue of 47 billion HKD [4][5]. - EBITDA for the quarter was 37.1 billion HKD, reflecting a 12% year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.7 billion HKD, down 13% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Segment Performance - Trading and transaction system fees amounted to 15.8 billion HKD, a 7% decrease year-on-year due to lower trading volumes [6]. - Listing fees decreased by 13% year-on-year to 3.7 billion HKD, influenced by a reduction in the number of IPOs [6]. - Investment income was reported at 13.4 billion HKD, down 13% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced returns from external portfolios [6]. Market Performance - The cash market ADT for Q1 2024 was 994 billion HKD, a 22% decline year-on-year, while the Northbound ADT increased by 37% year-on-year [7]. - The IPO market saw a decrease in the number of new listings, with only 12 companies listed in Q1 2024, down from 18 in the same period last year [7]. - Despite the current market challenges, there is optimism for gradual recovery, supported by a healthy pipeline of 85 active IPO applications as of March 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange is "Buy" (maintained) [2][13]. Core Views - The company's diversified development strategy remains resilient, with a focus on positive policy catalysts in the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The Q1 2024 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit due to a high base effect and weak spot trading, but the diversified strategy is expected to yield benefits [2]. - The report highlights the importance of cyclical turning points, the effectiveness of the company's diversification strategy, and supportive policies for liquidity improvement [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit were HKD 52.0 billion and HKD 29.7 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 6% and 13%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% and 14% [2]. - The EBITDA margin and ROE were 72% and 24.2%, down by 4 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to HKD 123.7 billion, HKD 131.9 billion, and HKD 142.2 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 9.8, HKD 10.4, and HKD 11.2 [2]. Business Segment Analysis - **Trading and Settlement Business**: Spot trading remains weak, but northbound trading and derivatives show resilience. Q1 2024 trading fees and settlement fees were HKD 15.8 billion and HKD 11.0 billion, with year-on-year changes of -12.7% and +2.5% [2]. - **Investment Segment**: Investment income was HKD 13.4 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in margin requirements [2]. - **Listing and Other Income**: Listing fees were HKD 3.7 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year, with a total of 12 IPOs in Q1 2024, a decrease of 33.3% [2]. Market and Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the domestic economy and global liquidity, with expected benefits from supportive policies aimed at enhancing liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to promote cooperation with Hong Kong's capital market, which is expected to enhance the liquidity and attractiveness of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) [1] Core Views - The trading activity has rebounded on a month-on-month basis, with continued robust performance in cross-border trading [1] - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was HKD 5.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% but an increase of 7.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.97 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year but up 14.4% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The EBITDA margin was 72%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4 percentage points but an increase of 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 1.268 billion [2] - Total market capitalization: HKD 303.013 billion [2] - 1-year low/high stock price: HKD 212.2 / 336 [2] - 3-month turnover rate: 41.4% [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 total revenue: HKD 5.2 billion, down 6.4% year-on-year, up 7.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - Main business revenue: HKD 4.66 billion, down 6.9% year-on-year, up 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 2.97 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year, up 14.4% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - Investment income: HKD 1.34 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, up 25.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] Trading Activity - Average daily trading volume for Hong Kong stocks: HKD 99.4 billion, down 22.2% year-on-year, up 9.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Average daily trading volume for derivatives: HKD 10.3 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year, down 2.8% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Northbound and southbound trading daily turnover: RMB 133 billion and HKD 31 billion, respectively [5] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the company is a rare investment target with a balanced risk-reward profile, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6] - The anticipated net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at HKD 12.8 billion, HKD 13.4 billion, and HKD 13.8 billion, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X for 2024, 23X for 2025, and 22X for 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (0388.HK) with a target price of HKD 239.00 [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to high base effects, with total revenue for Q1 2024 at HKD 5.201 billion, down 6.42% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 2.970 billion, down 12.85% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights the potential for better utilization of the connectivity functions between Hong Kong and mainland China, following recent regulatory measures aimed at enhancing cooperation [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 total revenue was HKD 5.201 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6.42%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.970 billion, down 12.85% year-on-year. The net asset attributable to shareholders was HKD 49.475 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.53% [5][8]. - Revenue breakdown shows declines in trading fees and related services, with trading fees down 7%, listing fees down 13%, and investment income down 13% [5][8]. Business Segments - The cash market segment faced challenges with a year-on-year decline in trading volume of 22%, while the derivatives segment saw a 6% increase in average daily trading volume [6][8]. - The commodities segment reported a significant increase in trading volume, with metal contracts showing a 31% year-on-year increase [8]. Future Outlook - The report projects a relatively resilient performance for the company, with net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at HKD 12.1 billion, HKD 12.4 billion, and HKD 13.2 billion respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 2% for 2024 and 2025, and 6% for 2026 [8][14]. - The anticipated expansion of the connectivity functions is expected to enhance the quality of assets in the Hong Kong market and improve liquidity [8].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·其他金融(HS) 香港交易所（00388.HK） 2024 年一季报点评：交投情绪拐点显现，政 2024年 04月 24 日 策红利值得期待 证券分析师 胡翔 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516110001 021-60199793 盈[T 利ab 预le_ 测EP 与S 估] 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E hux@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 葛玉翔 营业总收入（百万港元） 18,456 20,516 21,691 23,250 24,646 执业证书：S0600522040002 同比（%） -11.90% 11.16% 5.73% 7.18% 6.00% 021-60199761 归母净利润（百万港元） 10,078 11,862 12,124 13,163 14,133 geyx@dwzq.com.cn 同比（%） -19.60% 17.70% 2.21% 8.57% 7.37% 研究助理 罗宇康 EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） 7.95 9.36 9.56 10.38 11.15 执业证书：S0600123090002 P/E（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong recovery in trading activities and improved investment income, leading to a significant increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024 [5] - The introduction of five capital market cooperation measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to enhance liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [5] - The report has revised profit forecasts upward due to improved trading conditions and supportive policies, projecting net profits of 12.2 billion, 13.4 billion, and 14.3 billion HKD for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue was 5.2 billion HKD, down 6% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter; main revenue was 4.66 billion HKD, down 7% year-on-year but up 30% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was 2.97 billion HKD, down 13% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter [5] - EBITDA margin was 72%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year but up 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue contributions from trading fees, settlement fees, and investment income accounted for nearly 80% of total revenue [5] - Q1 2024 revenue by segment: cash equities 1.88 billion HKD (-12% YoY), equity securities and derivatives 1.57 billion HKD (-15% YoY), commodities 670 million HKD (+33% YoY), data and connectivity 520 million HKD (+4% YoY) [5] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in Q1 2024 was 994 billion HKD, down 22% year-on-year but up 9% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Northbound capital inflow was 682 billion RMB, while southbound capital inflow was 1,331 billion HKD in Q1 2024 [10] IPO Market Overview - In Q1 2024, the company completed 12 IPOs, raising 4.8 billion HKD, a decrease of 28% year-on-year and 78% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The report highlights a potential recovery in the IPO market due to improved conditions and regulatory support for mainland companies seeking to list in Hong Kong [5]