Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the securities market reached HKD 42.7 trillion at the end of June 2025, a 33% increase from HKD 32.1 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in June 2025 was HKD 230.2 billion, up 107% from HKD 111.2 billion in June 2024 [1] - The average daily trading amount for the first six months of 2025 was HKD 240.2 billion, a rise of 118% compared to HKD 110.4 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products - The average daily trading amount for derivative warrants in the first half of 2025 was HKD 7.8 billion, an increase of 70% from HKD 4.6 billion in the same period last year [3] - The average daily trading amount for bull and bear certificates in the first half of 2025 was HKD 9.6 billion, up 78% from HKD 5.4 billion year-on-year [3] Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) - The average daily trading amount for exchange-traded funds in the first half of 2025 was HKD 33.8 billion, a significant increase of 184% from HKD 11.9 billion in the same period last year [2] New Listings and Fundraising - There were 44 new listed companies in the first half of 2025, a 47% increase from 30 in the same period last year [3] - The total fundraising amount from initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first half of 2025 was HKD 107.1 billion, a staggering increase of 699% from HKD 13.4 billion year-on-year [3] - The total fundraising amount for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 280.8 billion, up 322% from HKD 66.5 billion in the same period last year [3] Futures and Options - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first half of 2025 was 1,700,322 contracts, an 11% increase from 1,532,608 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 868,128 contracts, a 25% increase from 695,757 contracts year-on-year [5] - The average daily trading volume for stock futures was 9,071 contracts, a 9% increase from 8,306 contracts in the same period last year [6] - The average daily trading volume for RMB currency futures was 115,150 contracts, a 43% increase from 80,609 contracts year-on-year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) highlights the significant growth and optimization of the Swap Connect since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction volumes increasing from 50 billion RMB to 380 billion RMB by May 2025, representing a 660% growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Scale and Growth - The Swap Connect officially launched on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a transaction volume of 50 billion RMB in the first month [2]. - By April 2025, the total value of onshore fixed-income products held by international investors reached 4.4 trillion RMB, a 10% increase from the previous year [2]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction volume of 380 billion RMB in May 2025, far exceeding initial expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Optimization and Future Prospects - Since its inception, the Swap Connect has undergone continuous optimization, including the expansion of eligible collateral and the extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [4]. - The HKEX anticipates further product expansions, including the introduction of interest rate swap contracts referencing the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for offshore investors [4][5]. - The Swap Connect has become the preferred tool for offshore investors to hedge interest rate risks, with a notable shift from the NDIRS (offshore RMB interest rate swap) market to the Swap Connect market [6][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Demand - The increasing interest from international investors in RMB interest rate swaps has led to a demand for improved infrastructure and product offerings within the Swap Connect [8]. - Recommendations include expanding transaction limits and diversifying product types to meet the growing needs of offshore investors [8].

Core Insights - The Bond Connect has significantly enhanced the connectivity between the Hong Kong and mainland China bond markets since its launch in 2017, with ongoing improvements leading to increased international participation [1][2] - As of May 2025, over 70 countries and regions have engaged with the Chinese interbank bond market, with foreign institutions holding approximately 4.35 trillion yuan in onshore bonds, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 12% over the past five years [2] - The recent measures announced by the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority aim to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, enhancing liquidity and competitiveness in the offshore RMB business [7][8] Group 1: Bond Connect Development - The Bond Connect has become the preferred channel for international investors to access the mainland interbank bond market, indicating a strong demand for deeper connectivity between global and onshore markets [2] - The total number of international investors participating in the Chinese interbank bond market has reached 1,169, with significant trading volumes recorded [2] - The Northbound Swap Connect has attracted 82 foreign institutions, with a total nominal principal amount of approximately 6.9 trillion yuan, showcasing substantial growth in trading activity [2] Group 2: Attractiveness of Chinese Bonds - The Chinese bond market is now the second largest globally, characterized by ample depth and liquidity, making it increasingly important in global asset allocation [4] - China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to major developed economies, enhancing the appeal of its bonds [4] - The annualized volatility of onshore RMB bonds is approximately 1.3%, significantly lower than that of other developed markets, making them attractive for risk-adjusted returns [4] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Over 30% of central banks surveyed plan to increase their holdings of RMB assets in the next five years, indicating a growing interest in Chinese bonds [5] - The expansion of the Southbound Connect is expected to facilitate greater overseas asset allocation by domestic investors, further driving growth in the bond market [5] - The current international investor participation in the Chinese bond market is only about 3%, suggesting significant room for growth as global investors seek diversification [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 107 billion HKD in the first half of the year, with 42 IPOs and an average daily trading volume of 40 billion HKD for 210 ETP products, indicating a vibrant fundraising environment [2][4] - Retail investors feel disconnected from the market's success, often missing out on opportunities despite the overall market growth, as exemplified by the experience of a retail investor who failed to secure shares in a popular IPO [4][2] - The disparity between market movements and retail investor experiences highlights the challenges of navigating the financial landscape, where significant capital flows often go unnoticed by individual investors [2][4] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that market movements are often driven by concentrated capital behaviors, with key periods accounting for a significant portion of annual returns [5][7] - A comparison between traditional K-line charts and quantitative systems reveals the underlying dynamics of capital flow, showcasing the difference between surface-level analysis and deeper insights into market behavior [7][10] - The importance of understanding the "language of trading" is emphasized, where announcements may not have the expected impact if not accompanied by corresponding capital movements [8][10] Group 3 - The influx of 107 billion HKD into the market leaves traces that can be analyzed, such as changes in stock weightings or shifts in derivatives market positions, which can provide insights into institutional trading strategies [11][13] - The phenomenon of "shakeout behavior" often indicates that large funds are accumulating shares, leading to confusion among retail investors about stagnant stock prices despite strong fundamentals [13][11] - The increasing complexity of the financial market creates greater information asymmetry, making it essential for investors to utilize quantitative tools to gain insights into capital flows and identify potential investment opportunities [14][11]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Kuaishou-W from 4.92% to 5.05% on July 3, with an average share price of 60.8413 HKD [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has reported significant growth in the Swap Connect since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction amounts increasing from 50 billion yuan to 380 billion yuan by May 2025, representing a 660% growth [1] - The expansion of the Swap Connect reflects strong demand from international investors and is expected to continue growing as the internationalization of the renminbi accelerates [1] Summary by Sections Launch and Growth - The Swap Connect officially started on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a first-month transaction amount of 50 billion yuan [1] - By April 2025, the total value of onshore fixed-income products held by international investors reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a 10% increase from the previous year [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction amount of 380 billion yuan in May 2025, significantly surpassing expectations [1] Market Impact - The transaction amount of the Swap Connect accounted for approximately 8% of the domestic interest rate swap market as of May 2025 [1] - Since December 2024, the trading volume in the Swap Connect has accelerated, with March 2025 seeing record monthly trading volume and transaction counts [1] Regulatory and Structural Enhancements - The rules governing the Swap Connect have been continuously optimized since its launch, including an expansion of eligible collateral for northbound swaps in January 2025 and an extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [1] - These enhancements are expected to provide breakthroughs for the offshore derivatives market, including improved hedging tools and increased capital efficiency [1] Future Developments - HKEX plans to expand the product types available in the Swap Connect later this year, including contracts referencing the one-year loan market quotation rate [1] - The share of global trade settled in renminbi has reached nearly 6%, surpassing the euro, with cross-border renminbi settlements between China and ASEAN countries exceeding 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024, more than double that of 2021 [1] Investor Sentiment - The Swap Connect has become the preferred interest rate risk hedging tool for offshore investment institutions, with some investors shifting from the NDIRS market to the Swap Connect for risk hedging and arbitrage opportunities [1] - Analysts suggest that narrowing NDD spreads will attract more overseas investors, enhancing market participation and activity [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Alibaba-W from 5.88% to 6.18% as of July 2 [1] - The average share price for this transaction was HKD 109.5704 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Modern Services Index has shown positive performance, with a year-to-date increase of 16.86% and a recent monthly rise of 0.97% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Modern Services Index closed at 1643.39 points [1] - The index has increased by 2.72% over the past three months [1] - The index is based on a sample of securities selected from the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Tencent Holdings (17.49%), Alibaba-W (10.97%), HSBC Holdings (9.09%), and others [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index shows that finance accounts for 36.84%, communication services for 27.93%, and consumer discretionary for 21.51% [2] - Other sectors include real estate (4.95%), utilities (3.59%), industrials (2.16%), healthcare (1.74%), and information technology (1.29%) [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments, and companies that are delisted will be removed from the index [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market completed 42 IPOs in the first half of the year, raising over 107 billion HKD, which is approximately 22% more than the total for last year, making it the highest globally [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of the year, marking the largest increase in points ever for this period, surpassing 4000 points [1][2] - There has been a significant increase in IPO applications, with around 200 applications received so far, doubling from the beginning of the year, including companies from the Middle East and Southeast Asia [2][3] Group 2 - The total assets under management for ETPs in Hong Kong reached nearly 510 billion HKD, a 30% increase since 2020, with average daily trading volume increasing fivefold to approximately 40 billion HKD [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is actively promoting the listing of various themed ETFs, including those focused on innovative technology, climate change, renewable energy, and biotechnology [3][4] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index's PE and PB ratios at 10.65 and 1.12, respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4][6] Group 3 - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, supported by favorable policies and strong earnings growth, with expectations for further price increases [5][6] - Consumer stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical and discretionary sectors, are expected to rise due to improved earnings growth forecasts driven by domestic consumption policies [5] - High-dividend stocks are seen as a stable return option amid global uncertainties, providing investors with a reliable income stream [5]

Group 1 - The company FWD Group has set its IPO price at HKD 38 per share [1] - The listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will commence on July 7 [1]