Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) for 2025 and 2026, introducing a profit estimate of HKD 17.9 billion for 2027, with a target price of HKD 500, implying an upside of 12.6% based on current P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For Q4 2025, earnings are expected to decline by 1% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue projected to increase by 27% year-on-year to HKD 28.46 billion and profit expected to rise by 31% to HKD 17.15 billion [2] Group 2: Trading Activity - Trading activity in the cash and derivatives markets is expected to show a marginal decline, with Q4 2025 cash market average daily turnover (ADT) projected at HKD 229.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [3] - The number of IPOs completed in Q4 is expected to be 48, with total financing amounting to HKD 97.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 201% [3] Group 3: Investment Performance - Investment income is anticipated to decline by 35% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter due to a decrease in margin investment returns and external redemptions [4] Group 4: Long-term Value - The company emphasizes the dual resonance of "assets + funds" for long-term investment value, noting that if the cash market ADT increases by HKD 10 billion in 2026, the profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,742.89, down by 225.20 points or 0.81% as of January 29, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,909.81 and a low of 27,419.65 during the trading session, with an average price of 27,664.73 [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 27,909.81, while the 52-week low is 19,335.70 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks experienced declines, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 138.219, up 0.45% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 619.286, down 0.44% from the Hong Kong close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) latest price is HKD 622.000, with a slight increase of 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) latest price is HKD 173.300, down by 0.200 or 0.12% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) latest price is HKD 137.600, up by 0.100 or 0.07% [3] - China Construction Bank (00939) latest price is HKD 8.160, up by 0.130 or 1.62% [3] - AIA Group (01299) latest price is HKD 90.950, up by 2.100 or 2.36% [3] - Xiaomi Group (01810) latest price is HKD 36.620, up by 0.300 or 0.83% [3] - NetEase (099999) latest price is HKD 206.600, down by 5.400 or 2.55% [3] - Meituan (03690) latest price is HKD 98.600, up by 0.250 or 0.25% [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) latest price is HKD 6.640, up by 0.050 or 0.76% [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) latest price is HKD 444.200, up by 5.000 or 1.14% [3] - Ping An Insurance (02318) latest price is HKD 73.300, up by 2.350 or 3.31% [3] - Baidu Group (09888) latest price is HKD 155.500, down by 0.600 or 0.38% [3] - China Bank (03988) latest price is HKD 4.760, up by 0.090 or 1.93% [3] - BYD Company (01211) latest price is HKD 101.800, down by 1.000 or 0.97% [3] - JD.com (09618) latest price is HKD 114.600, down by 1.700 or 1.46% [3] - Ctrip Group (09961) latest price is HKD 482.200, down by 13.200 or 2.66% [3]

Group 1 - The launch of the Hang Seng Gold ETF marks Hong Kong's first ETF that supports physical gold redemption through banks, with an initial price of HKD 16 per unit and a minimum investment of approximately HKD 800 [1][2] - The Hong Kong government supports the ETF's launch as part of its vision to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading hub, contributing to the growth and innovation of the local gold market [1] - The ETF allows investors to redeem physical gold directly at banks, with all storage, trading, and redemption activities conducted in Hong Kong, enhancing the product's appeal [1][2] Group 2 - The ETF's first-day performance was strong, closing at HKD 17.44, representing a 9% increase from its issue price [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) anticipates more gold-themed ETFs to be launched, enhancing the variety of precious metal-related products available to investors [2] - HKEX aims to continue collaborating with market stakeholders to drive product innovation and reinforce Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2]

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR rising but closing lower compared to Hong Kong's market close, at 27,511.69 points, down 315.22 points or 1.13% [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 135.752, down 1.27% from the Hong Kong market close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 613.539, down 1.20% from the Hong Kong market close [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 621.000, up 2.31%, ADR price HKD 613.539, down 1.20% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 173.500, up 2.12%, ADR price HKD 171.309, down 1.26% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 137.500, up 2.23%, ADR price HKD 135.752, down 1.27% [3] - Xiaomi Group: Latest price HKD 36.320, up 2.14%, ADR price HKD 35.857, down 1.27% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 88.850, up 2.78%, ADR price HKD 87.888, down 1.08% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 56.86, up 1.86%, ADR price HKD 97.328, down 1.04% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 102.800, up 4.58%, ADR price HKD 101.502, down 1.26% [3]

总体而言，高盛集团首席执行官苏德巍(David Solomon)公开表示，展望2026年，港股IPO市场有望迎来 强劲复苏，并将成为"非常好的一年"。高盛方面认为，若宏观环境保持相对稳定、市场流动性持续改 善，香港2026年在IPO数量和融资规模方面均有望实现明显回升。 值得注意的是，港股IPO热潮涌动之下，业务量的激增也导致"赶工"现象频频出现。部分内地企业为启 动境内的监管审批流程，出现了向港交所提交不完整的"占位"申请、上市申请文件质量低劣且审查不 足、保荐人对监管问询反馈滞后且不到位、发售流程执行混乱等问题，引起了市场关注。 港交所集团行政总裁陈翊庭在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受媒体采访时表示，近期港股IPO出现质 量不佳的原因，是IPO数量突然上升带来的兴奋情绪，导致资源与协作面临压力。IPO质量绝对"不能妥 协"，这是维护市场信任的基础，须确保每宗上市申请的质量及尽职调查到位。近期已就部分质量欠佳 的IPO申请发出的警示，是在提醒专业人士速度必须与质量并行。 （上接1版） 上述A股公司普遍在公告中表示，赴港上市是为了推动公司全球化战略深入实施、拓宽融资渠道、加速 发展海外业务。在出海趋势下，港股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a significant boom, with 117 IPOs in 2025 raising HKD 286.33 billion, making it the top global market for IPO fundraising. As of 2026, over 350 companies are waiting to go public, despite rumors of tightened listing requirements for dual-listed companies [1][2]. Supply Side: Policy Benefits Attracting Companies to List - The current queue for IPOs in Hong Kong includes 357 companies, with 105 of them being AtoH projects, indicating a strong trend in the IPO market. The surge is attributed to policy adjustments that have created market benefits, enhancing investor participation [4]. - The introduction of the "Tech Company Fast Track" in May 2025 allows biotech firms without revenue to list under specific conditions, while early-stage tech companies can also go public, particularly in robotics and AI sectors [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimized IPO market pricing and public market regulations, adjusting minimum allocation shares and initial public holding requirements [4]. Demand Side: Profitability Effect Attracting More Investors - The profitability effect has significantly increased investor enthusiasm for IPOs, with the average and median effective subscription multiples for offline offerings at 8.7 times and 4.5 times, respectively, and online offerings at 1654.9 times and 312.9 times, both historical highs [6]. - The IPO failure rate in 2025 was only 27.6%, the lowest since 2018, with a median first-day return of 9.6% and an average of 36.6%, both also the highest since 2018 [6]. - There has been a notable increase in cornerstone investors, with domestic institutions actively participating in cornerstone investments, contrasting with previous reliance on foreign investors [6]. Market Dynamics: Potential Disruptions from Lock-up Expirations - Despite the optimistic outlook for the IPO market, there are concerns about potential disruptions from lock-up expirations, which could impact stock performance post-IPO [7]. - Historical data suggests that lock-up expirations have coincided with market downturns, but the unique circumstances of 2025 may mitigate these effects, as new buying interest could offset selling pressure from cornerstone investors [7]. Overall Market Outlook for 2026 - The liquidity risk in the Hong Kong market is expected to be manageable in 2026, with earnings for non-financial companies projected to rise moderately. The ongoing global monetary easing and expectations of RMB appreciation are also favorable for the Hong Kong market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has announced the trading arrangements for the Hang Seng Gold ETF (03170), which has been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission as a collective investment scheme and is expected to commence trading on January 29, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Arrangements - The Hang Seng Gold ETF will have a trading unit of 50 shares per transaction [1]. - The ETF is approved for short selling and will be included in the list of designated securities for short selling [2]. - Investors are advised to refer to the fund manager's information regarding the net asset value per unit before engaging in trading [2]. Group 2: Market Participation - Market participants have been issued with a securities dealer license, effective from the same date as the ETF's trading commencement [2]. - The announcement includes details about the responsibilities and regulations for securities dealers, which must be adhered to [2]. - Any changes to trading arrangements, including price applications and dealer responsibilities, will be communicated to market participants [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has announced the trading arrangements for the Hang Seng Gold ETF (03170), which is set to begin trading on January 29, 2026, after receiving approval from the Securities and Futures Commission as a collective investment scheme [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Arrangements - The Hang Seng Gold ETF has been approved as a collective investment scheme and is expected to start trading on January 29, 2026 [1][2]. - Each trading unit of the Hang Seng Gold ETF consists of 50 shares [1]. Group 2: Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to frequently refer to the fund manager's provided information, including the net asset value per unit, before engaging in trading [2]. - The announcement includes details about the responsibilities and regulations for market makers involved in the trading of the ETF [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a significant boom, with 117 IPOs in 2025 raising HKD 286.33 billion, making it the top global market for IPO fundraising [2][3] - In 2026, the trend continues with over 350 companies waiting to go public in Hong Kong, indicating sustained interest in the market [2][3] - There are rumors about tightening IPO requirements, suggesting that companies seeking to list must meet a market capitalization threshold of HKD 30 billion, although many brokers have not confirmed this [3][4] Group 2 - The 2025 IPO market saw a year-on-year increase of 224.8% in fundraising, with a total of HKD 286.33 billion raised, and a significant rise in refinancing to HKD 326.37 billion, up 272.9% [3][5] - The number of AtoH projects reached 19 in 2025, the highest in nearly a decade, indicating a growing trend of dual listings [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has implemented policy changes that have attracted more companies to list, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, benefiting from the "Tech Company Fast Track" introduced in May 2025 [6] Group 3 - The demand side of the IPO market is bolstered by a strong "money-making effect," with high subscription rates for new shares, averaging 8.7 times for offline offerings and 1654.9 times for online offerings, both historical highs [7] - The IPO failure rate in 2025 was only 27.6%, the lowest since 2018, with a median first-day return of 9.6% and an average of 36.6%, indicating strong investor interest [7] - There is a notable increase in domestic institutional participation in cornerstone investments, contrasting with previous trends dominated by foreign investors [7] Group 4 - Despite the optimism surrounding the IPO market, there are concerns about a potential disruption from a wave of lock-up expirations for cornerstone investors, which could impact stock performance [8][9] - However, it is noted that the 2025 lock-up expirations did not lead to a market downturn, as new buying interest from index funds and foreign capital could offset any selling pressure from exiting cornerstone investors [9] - Analysts predict that the liquidity risk in the Hong Kong market will remain manageable in 2026, with earnings support expected for non-financial companies in the Hang Seng Index [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Hong Kong IPO market in 2025, highlighting its record fundraising and contrasting it with the US market, while predicting a decline in IPO activity for 2026 due to various factors [3][5]. Group 1: 2025 Hong Kong IPO Market Performance - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 117 new listings, raising a total of 286.7 billion HKD (approximately 36.8 billion USD), marking a four-year high [3]. - The article claims that while many reports state Hong Kong led global IPOs in 2025, the US market raised over 70 billion USD, indicating a significant difference in scale [3]. - The fundraising intensity in Hong Kong, measured as new funds raised relative to total market capitalization, was 57.5 basis points, compared to just 10 basis points in the US [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing 2025 Performance - A significant portion of the 2025 fundraising came from 19 A-share companies that also listed H-shares in Hong Kong, accounting for half of the total fundraising [4]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) benefited greatly, with projected net profits for 2025 expected to exceed 18 billion HKD, a 40% increase from 2024 [4]. Group 3: Predictions for 2026 - The article predicts that the IPO activity in 2026 will not match the levels seen in 2025, citing the unique circumstances of 2025 as an outlier [5][6]. - The supply of potential IPOs is expected to diminish, with only a few large companies like Ant Group and ByteDance likely to go public, while most upcoming IPOs will be smaller mid-cap or small-cap companies [6][7]. - The anticipated IPOs in 2026 are expected to have lower fundraising amounts, with many projects estimated to raise around 5 to 10 billion HKD, making it difficult to reach the previous year's total [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The article notes that the large IPOs from 2025 will lead to a liquidity release in 2026, as many of these stocks will face a lock-up expiration, potentially increasing selling pressure in the market [8]. - Despite concerns about excessive IPOs, the article suggests that the market dynamics will limit the ability of the HKEX to flood the market with new listings [9].