Air China(00753)

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中国国航:三季度净利同比下滑,中长期盈利弹性可期


Guoxin Securities· 2024-11-01 11:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2024, but long-term profitability is expected to improve due to operational efficiency and a decrease in oil prices [1][5]. - The recovery in domestic demand has led to a significant increase in passenger load factor, although revenue levels remain under pressure due to excess supply in the industry [1][6]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment and slow recovery in international routes [20][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.1% [1][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 2.3% to 4.14 billion yuan [1][5]. - Passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) grew by 14.4%, 20.7%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][6]. Cost and Efficiency Summary - The company's operating costs for Q3 2024 were 42.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while unit ASK operating costs decreased by 1.5% to 0.44 yuan [1][6]. - The average price of aviation kerosene decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, contributing to lower unit costs [1][6]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 550 million yuan, 5.26 billion yuan, and 8.39 billion yuan, respectively, with significant downward adjustments of -94%, -61%, and -47% [20][21]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as the aviation market stabilizes and demand increases [18][20]. Valuation Comparison - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be in the range of 10 to 15 times, comparable to peers in the industry [18][19].
中国国航:量升价跌市场下盈利小幅下滑,业绩超预期


申万宏源· 2024-11-01 10:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation (601111) is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that China National Aviation's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The report notes strong operational data during the peak travel season, with significant recovery in both domestic and international travel demand [2] - The report adjusts the 2024 domestic ticket price growth forecast to -13% and the international recovery rate to 100%, reflecting slower-than-expected recovery in international routes and low ticket prices [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 48.63 billion yuan, up 6.03% year-on-year, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 1.362 billion yuan, a 72.1% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The estimated passenger kilometer yield for Q3 was 0.62 yuan, a 0.33 yuan increase compared to 2019, but a 12.18% decrease compared to 2023 [2] - Q3 operating costs were 42.277 billion yuan, with a unit cost of 0.44 yuan, reflecting a 14.15% increase compared to 2019 [2] Operational Data - In Q3 2024, the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 30.17% compared to 2019, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 28.35% [2] - Domestic ASK recovered to 157% of the 2019 level, while domestic RPK reached 154.4% [2] - International ASK and RPK showed significant recovery, with ASK at 92.02% and RPK at 89.29% of the 2019 levels, marking increases of 166% and 177.08% year-on-year, respectively [2] Fleet and Market Data - As of Q3 2024, the total fleet size of China National Aviation reached 924 aircraft, a 36% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The market capitalization of the circulating A-shares is 85.307 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.33 yuan [4][5]
中国国航:24Q3旺季盈利41亿,全年有望扭亏为盈


中国银河· 2024-11-01 07:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with a projected net profit of 5.81 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 10.46 billion yuan in 2023 [7][11] - The passenger transport volume for the first three quarters of 2024 shows significant recovery, with domestic, international, and regional passenger numbers reaching 101.75 million, 12.05 million, and 3.54 million respectively, marking increases of 147.78%, 93.48%, and 83.27% compared to 2019 [2] - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.50% [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is 6.56%, showing improvement compared to 2019 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 141.1 billion yuan in 2023, 165.54 billion yuan in 2024, 181.94 billion yuan in 2025, and 195.90 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 166.74%, 17.32%, 9.91%, and 7.68% respectively [7][11] - The net profit forecast indicates a turnaround with expected figures of 5.81 billion yuan in 2024, 48.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 67.05 billion yuan in 2026 [7][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2024, 0.30 yuan in 2025, and 0.41 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 204.48X, 24.66X, and 17.71X [7][11] Operational Insights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates a fleet of 924 aircraft, with ongoing optimization of its fleet structure [2] - The company has introduced 12 new aircraft and retired 3 during 2024 [2]
中国国航2024年三季度点评:Q3盈利大超预期,建议淡季逆向布局


Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-11-01 02:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China National Aviation (601111) [4] Core Views - The Q3 earnings of China National Aviation significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong profitability and effective revenue management strategies [2][3] - The company is advised to adopt a contrarian investment strategy during the off-peak season in Q4 [2][3] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 41 billion yuan, which is a substantial improvement compared to the same period in 2023 and 2019, exceeding market expectations [3] - The total net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 14 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in previous years [3] Operational Metrics - The company’s available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by approximately 13% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery in operational capacity [3] - The passenger load factor rose by over 5 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, reflecting a more aggressive revenue management approach compared to competitors [3] Market Outlook - The demand for air travel continues to grow, with excess capacity being gradually absorbed, and a positive trend in supply-demand recovery is anticipated [3] - The international flight capacity is expected to improve, particularly with the recent lifting of restrictions on Chinese airlines by Canada, which may accelerate recovery on North American routes [3] Long-term Value Proposition - The company’s high-quality route network and customer base are expected to enhance long-term profitability, with a projected net profit of 8 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 150 billion yuan by 2026 [3] - The strategic acquisition of Shandong Airlines has positioned the company favorably in terms of fleet size and operational efficiency [3] Target Price - The target price for the stock is maintained at 13.52 yuan, with the current market price at 7.33 yuan [4]
中国国航:Q3出行需求旺盛,净利仅小幅下滑


SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2024-11-01 00:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (601111.SH) [2][3] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 128.15 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.36 billion RMB, up 72% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 48.63 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for the same period was 4.14 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The demand for travel in Q3 was robust, with passenger kilometers increasing by 21% year-on-year, driven by a strong seasonal demand [2] - The company expects improvements in profitability due to various consumer stimulus policies and a recovery in consumer confidence, which may lead to a demand surge in the aviation sector [2] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company’s revenue per available seat kilometer (RPK) cost decreased by 12% year-on-year in Q3 2024, attributed to high ticket prices in the previous year and weaker demand in the current quarter [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 13.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining ticket prices [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to a loss of 0.7 billion RMB from a previous estimate of a loss of 1.7 billion RMB, while the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain at 7.4 billion RMB and 12.1 billion RMB, respectively [3] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 141.1 billion RMB in 2023 to 167.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 18.6% growth rate [6] Market Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point by 2025, with the company poised to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and its strong network [2] - The report highlights that the company’s profitability is likely to improve as the market adjusts to new consumer behaviors and demand patterns post-pandemic [2]
中国国航(00753) - 持续关连交易


2024-10-30 14:49
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 00753 持續關連交易 持續關連交易 (1) 中航集團公司交易 茲提述有關(其中包括)本公司持續關連交易之二零二一年通函。本公司預期二零二一 年通函所載的若干持續關連交易將於二零二四年十二月三十一日後繼續進行,因此, 本公司將繼續根據香港上市規則的規定,在未來三年(即二零二五年一月一日至二零 二七年十二月三十一日)內就進行該等持續關連交易遵守香港上市規則第14A章的規 定。 (2) 國貨航交易 茲提述本公司日期為二零二二年九月二十日的公告及本公司日期為二零二二年九月二 十八日的通函,內容有關(其中包括)國貨航交易。國貨航框架協議的現時年期將於二 零二四年十二月三十一日屆滿。由於本公司預期將於二零二四年十二月三十一日後繼 續進行國貨航交易,故董事會決議於二零二四年十月三十日續展國貨航框架協議,自 二零二五年一月一日起至二零二七年十二月三十一日止為期三年,惟須獲得獨立股東 於臨時股東大會上批准後,方可進行 ...
中国国航(00753) - 2024 Q3 - 季度业绩


2024-10-30 13:45
Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 48,629,587, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.03%[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was RMB 4,144,237, showing a decrease of 2.31% compared to the previous year[3] - For the year-to-date period, the operating revenue totaled RMB 128,149,919, reflecting a significant increase of 21.50% year-on-year[3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year-to-date period was RMB 1,361,747, which is a substantial increase of 72.06% compared to the same period last year[3] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were RMB 0.26, down 7.14% from the previous year[3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 128,149,919 thousand, an increase from RMB 105,476,845 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of approximately 21.5%[19] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 769,271 thousand, compared to RMB 1,186,837 thousand in the same period of 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 35.1%[20] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 889,405 thousand RMB, down from 1,095,486 thousand RMB in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 19%[21] - The net income attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1,497,545 thousand RMB, compared to 725,463 thousand RMB in 2023, indicating an increase of about 106%[21] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were both 0.09 RMB, up from 0.05 RMB in the same period of 2023, reflecting an increase of 80%[21] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period amounted to RMB 344,550,972, an increase of 2.76% from the end of the previous year[4] - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 228,028,250 thousand, a slight decrease from RMB 232,487,254 thousand at the end of 2023[31] - Total liabilities as of September 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 306,569,088 thousand, slightly up from RMB 300,014,685 thousand at the end of 2023[17] - Current liabilities totaled RMB 150,514,322 thousand as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 110,317,274 thousand at the end of 2023, marking an increase of about 36.4%[16] - Non-current liabilities decreased to RMB 156,054,766 thousand as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 189,697,411 thousand at the end of 2023, a reduction of approximately 17.7%[17] - The company's total equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 40,543,145 thousand as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 37,229,962 thousand at the end of 2023, indicating an increase of about 6.2%[17] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30,741,937 thousand RMB, a decrease from 33,075,596 thousand RMB in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 10%[23] - Cash flow from investing activities showed a net outflow of 10,239,569 thousand RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a net outflow of 6,409,144 thousand RMB in 2023, indicating a worsening of cash flow by about 60%[24] - Cash flow from financing activities resulted in a net outflow of 15,283,175 thousand RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, slightly improved from a net outflow of 15,909,432 thousand RMB in 2023[24] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 19,770,703 thousand, a decrease of about 8.7% from RMB 21,719,076 thousand in 2023[35] - The cash inflow from investment activities was RMB 725,365 thousand in the first three quarters of 2024, down from RMB 892,722 thousand in 2023, indicating a decline of about 18.7%[36] - The cash outflow for purchasing fixed assets and other long-term assets was RMB 9,799,748 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 11,746,131 thousand in 2023, showing a decrease of approximately 16.6%[35] Shareholder Information - The company has a total of 160,825 common shareholders at the end of the reporting period[9] - The total number of unrestricted shares held by the top 10 shareholders amounts to 11,000,000,000 shares, with China Aviation Group holding 6,566,761,847 shares, representing 51.32% of the total[10] Future Plans and Investments - The company plans to introduce 100 C919 aircraft, which was approved in the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on August 9, 2024[12] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer service[22] - The company plans to implement new accounting standards starting in 2024, which may impact financial reporting[38]
中国国航(00753) - 海外市场公告


2024-10-30 13:07
(於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:00753) 海外市場公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條的規定而發表。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而 產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 䇱ࡨԓ⸱˖601111 㛑⾘ㆰ〠˖ѝഭഭ㡚 ޜ㕆ਧ˖2024-044 附件為中國國際航空股份有限公司於上海證券交易所刊發之 中國國際航空股份有限公司 (1)第六屆監事會第十九次會議決議公告 (2)第六屆董事會第三十三次會議決議公告 (3)2024年度「提質增效重回報」行動方案 承董事會命 中國國際航空股份有限公司 聯席公司秘書 肖烽 浩賢 中國北京,二零二四年十月三十日 於本公告日期,本公司的董事為馬崇賢先生、王明遠先生、崔曉峰先生、賀以禮先生、 肖鵬先生、禾雲先生*、徐俊新先生*及譚允芝女士*。 * 本公司獨立非執行董事 ѣളള䱻㡠グ㛗Գᴿ䲆ޢਮ ㅢޣኀⴇӁՐㅢॷғ⅗Ր䇤ߩ䇤ޢ ᵜޜਨⴁһՊ৺ޘփⴁһ؍䇱ᵜޜᇩнᆈ൘ԫօ㲊ۇٴ䇠䖭ǃ䈟ሬᙗ䱸䘠 ...
中国国航:中国国际航空股份有限公司第六届监事会第十九次会议决议公告


2024-10-30 11:11
证券代码:601111 股票简称:中国国航 公告编号:2024-044 中国国际航空股份有限公司 第六届监事会第十九次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 中国国际航空股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第六届监事会第十九次会 议(以下简称"本次会议")的通知于 2024 年 10 月 23 日以电子邮件的方式发 出。本次会议于 2024 年 10 月 30 日以书面议案方式召开。本次会议应出席监事 5 人,实际出席监事 5 人。本次会议的召集和召开符合《公司法》等相关法律、 行政法规、规章、规范性文件及公司章程的规定,合法、有效。 二、监事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过了如下议案: (一)关于 2024 年第三季度报告的议案 表决情况:赞成 5 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票,表决结果:通过。 审议通过公司 2024 年第三季度报告,详情请见公司同日披露的《中国国际 航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告》。 (二)关于公司与中国航空集团有限公司及其下属企业持续性关联(连) ...
中国国航:中国国际航空股份有限公司第六届董事会第三十三次会议决议公告


2024-10-30 11:09
证券代码:601111 股票简称:中国国航 公告编号:2024-045 中国国际航空股份有限公司 第六届董事会第三十三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 中国国际航空股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第六届董事会第三十三 次会议(以下简称"本次会议")通知和资料于 2024 年 10 月 22 日以电子邮件 的方式发出。本次会议于 2024 年 10 月 30 日 11:00 在北京市顺义区空港工业区 天柱路 30 号国航总部大楼 C713 会议室以现场结合视频方式召开。本次会议应 出席董事 8 人,实际出席董事 8 人,董事长马崇贤先生因公务委托副董事长王 明远先生出席并表决。本次会议由副董事长王明远先生主持,公司监事、高级 管理人员列席了本次会议。本次会议的召集和召开符合《公司法》等相关法 律、行政法规、规章、规范性文件及公司章程的规定,合法、有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过了如下议案: (一)关于 2024 年第三季度报告的议案 表决情况:赞成 8 票、 ...