Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies between life insurance and property insurance, particularly in the context of market conditions and potential returns [3]. Timing Strategy - Life insurance has greater elasticity compared to property insurance, which means it can yield higher returns in favorable market conditions, but it may also experience negative returns in downturns due to smaller bases [4]. - Currently, life insurance companies like Xinhua Insurance have already seen significant rebounds, raising questions about future investment choices [4]. - The investment assets of life insurance typically double every six to seven years, but low interest rates and rising liability costs may hinder net investment returns from doubling in the future [4][5]. - Property insurance, while not doubling its investment assets, benefits from stable zero-cost liabilities, potentially leading to better net investment returns compared to life insurance [5]. Investment Return Analysis - In various hypothetical scenarios, property insurance may show higher growth than life insurance [6]. - Life insurance stocks with historically high investment returns may struggle to outperform property insurance in the coming years [7]. - Conversely, life insurance stocks with lower investment returns have a higher probability of outperforming property insurance [8]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is highlighted as a preferred investment choice due to its low investment return of 2.68%, indicating significant potential for growth in the near future [8]. - If China Taiping's investment return reaches historical highs of 6%, the attractiveness of property insurance may increase [9]. Net Asset Stability - The net asset situation of various insurance companies shows that even in a year of increased investment returns, life insurance companies face pressure on net assets, while property insurance companies maintain stable growth [12][13]. - Net asset growth is crucial for insurance companies as it directly impacts their solvency and investment decisions [14][15]. - Property insurance companies exhibit more stable net asset growth, which supports their investment performance and valuation [16]. Overall Assessment - Property insurance is characterized by strong certainty in returns, with the only uncertainty stemming from the comprehensive cost ratio of auto insurance [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, expecting a robust growth in premiums for listed insurance companies in 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The insurance index decreased by 4.04%, underperforming the market by 3.42 percentage points, with mixed performances among individual stocks [1]. - The China Insurance Association indicated that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance is 1.89% [2]. - China Taiping announced a significant profit increase for 2025, projecting a rise of approximately 215% to 225% compared to 2024, driven by improved net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - The health insurance sector has seen an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade [2]. - Agricultural insurance premiums in China have surpassed 155 billion yuan, with nearly 80% coming from government subsidies [2]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth Projections - In 2025, New China Life is expected to achieve premiums of 195.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a "front-high and back-stable" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - China Pacific Insurance is projected to reach total premiums of 461.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with life insurance being the main growth driver [3]. - ZhongAn Online is expected to achieve premiums of 35.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates steady premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025, primarily driven by life insurance and the expansion of distribution channels [4]. - The property insurance sector is expected to show varied performance, influenced by adjustments in non-auto insurance business [4]. Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector has experienced two weeks of adjustments, mainly due to a slowdown in growth and high valuations [4]. - The report suggests that the performance of listed insurance companies in 2025 will be primarily driven by investment returns, with a favorable outlook for the first half of 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover, with estimates for major life insurance companies indicating potential increases above 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for major life insurance companies, with China Life at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property insurance, the report lists valuations with China Property at 1.15x and PICC at 1.26x [5].

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" for the next 3-6 months, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see steady premium growth in 2025, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels and the expansion of distribution networks [4][3]. - The report highlights that the average premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected to be robust, driven by factors such as improved investment returns and favorable tax policies [2][4]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector has experienced an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 4.04% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.42 percentage points [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like China Life (-3.77%) and Ping An (-3.66%), while China Taiping showed a significant increase of 8.78% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is expected to see a substantial increase in its annual profit, projected to grow by approximately 215% to 843.2 million HKD in 2025, driven by enhanced net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - New China Life's premiums are expected to reach 195.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's total premiums are projected to be 461.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.4%, supported by an 8.1% increase in life insurance premiums [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector has undergone two weeks of adjustments, primarily due to a slowdown in the "New Year" growth and high valuations [4]. - For the medium term, the first half of 2026 is expected to have relatively low base pressure, with an active equity market and a thriving liability side likely to drive performance beyond expectations [4]. - The report indicates that the current stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly alleviates pressure on interest spreads, suggesting potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover towards 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for various companies, indicating that China Life is at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property and casualty insurance, the report lists China Re at 0.60x and China Pacific at 1.09x, with a recommendation order favoring China Taiping and China Ping An [5].

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities has issued a report predicting China Taiping's (00966) enterprise value per share (EVPS) for 2025 to 2027 at 56.9, 65.8, and 75.6 HKD respectively, with a target price of 29.6 HKD for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to increase by 215% to 225%, amounting to an annual performance of 26.6 billion to 27.4 billion HKD [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company has achieved a net profit of 6.8 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - The projected net profit for the second half of 2025 is estimated to be between 19.8 billion and 20.6 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 723% to 758% [1] Performance Drivers - The significant growth in performance is attributed to a low base effect, equity elasticity, and one-time tax impacts, with expectations of continued active equity contributing to performance elasticity in the first half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities has issued a report predicting that China Taiping (00966) will have an enterprise value per share (EVPS) of HKD 56.9, 65.8, and 75.6 for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, with a target price of HKD 29.6 for 2026, maintaining a "recommended" rating [1] Financial Performance - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025 to increase by 215% to 225%, amounting to a total performance of HKD 26.6 billion to HKD 27.4 billion [1] - For the first half of 2025, China Taiping has already achieved a net profit of HKD 6.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - The projected net profit for the second half of 2025 is estimated to be between HKD 19.8 billion and HKD 20.6 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 723% to 758% [1] Performance Drivers - The significant growth in performance is attributed to a low base effect, equity elasticity, and one-time tax impacts, with expectations of continued active equity contributing to performance elasticity in the first half of the year [1]

华创证券发表研报指，根据公司公告，中国太平2025年度股东应占溢利预计按年增加215%至225%，对 应全年业绩266亿港元至274亿港元。2025年上半年公司已实现归母净利润68亿港元，按年增长12%；对 应2025年下半年预计归母净利润198亿港元至206亿港元，按年预增723%至758%。该行表示，业绩超预 期高增，来自低基数和权益弹性和税收一次性影响。展望今年，上半年预计权益活跃持续赋予业绩弹 性，但下半年增长受投资端基数影响有所承压。该行予其目标价29.6港元，维持"推荐"评级。 ...

机构：华创证券 研究员：陈海椰/徐康 事项： 根据《关于保险合同准则转换有关企业所得税处理事项的公告》： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为2025 年度及之前的企业，自2026 年起以新保险合同准则为基础， 作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入2026 年度应纳税所得 额，或自2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得 更改。 首次执行年度至2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应纳税所得额与已申报的应 纳税所得额的差额，计入2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。 根据公司初步估算，本集团2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加215%至225%。 评论： 2025 年业绩预增两倍以上，25H2 预增七倍以上。根据公司公告，中国太平2025 年度股东应占溢利 （即"归母净利润"）预计同比增加215%至225%，对应全年业绩266 亿港元至274 亿港元。2025H1 公司 已实现归母净利润68 亿港元，同比增长12%；对应2025H2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a strong continuity in market performance despite recent fluctuations [2][12][16]. Core Insights - The financial sector experienced a mixed performance this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.45%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 4.02%, while the brokerage sector decreased by 0.61% [1][10]. - The insurance sector's performance is driven by two main factors: policy support leading to economic recovery and liquidity easing combined with a strong stock market. The report suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to a focus on macro policy support and economic recovery expectations [2][13][16]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from new regulations that enhance investment management quality, with a recommendation to focus on larger, undervalued firms and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][18]. - The banking sector is facing a slight decline, but there are signs of recovery in profitability for leading banks, with recommendations to focus on banks with high dividend yields and those expected to benefit from market conditions [19][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's recent decline is attributed to short-term market sentiment and liquidity changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong support from both the liability and asset sides [2][12][16]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, with a specific recommendation for New China Life [4][16]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is slightly better than the overall market, with a focus on the new guidelines from the regulatory body that aim to improve fund management quality [3][17]. - Recommended firms include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, particularly those with strong merger and acquisition prospects [4][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown a decline but is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on banks with high earnings elasticity and strong dividend yields [19][21]. - Specific banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and others, with a focus on those that have previously been undervalued [4][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966.HK) with a target price of HKD 29.6 [9]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to increase by 215% to 225%, translating to a profit range of HKD 26.6 billion to HKD 27.4 billion [2][8]. - The significant growth is attributed to improved investment performance and a one-time impact from new corporate income tax policies in the insurance sector [8]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings will continue to show resilience due to active equity markets, although growth may face pressure in the second half of 2026 due to base effects [9]. Financial Summary - **Key Financial Metrics**: - Insurance service performance (in million HKD): - 2024A: 22,024 - 2025E: 23,369 (growth of 6.1%) - 2026E: 24,263 (growth of 3.8%) - 2027E: 25,325 (growth of 4.4%) [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD): - 2024A: 8,432 - 2025E: 26,828 (growth of 218.2%) - 2026E: 16,538 (decline of 38.4%) - 2027E: 17,934 (growth of 8.4%) [4] - Earnings per share (in HKD): - 2024A: 2.35 - 2025E: 7.46 - 2026E: 4.60 - 2027E: 4.99 [4] - Price-to-earnings ratio: - 2025E: 3.1 [4] - Price-to-book ratio: - 2025E: 0.8 [4] Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's stock has shown significant performance compared to the Hang Seng Index over the past 12 months, with a notable increase of 723% to 758% expected in the second half of 2025 [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...