致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 信義光能控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00968 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 80,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 8,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 80,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 8,000,000,000 | 本月底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong solar stocks experienced a significant increase in share prices on October 2, 2023, indicating positive market sentiment towards the solar energy sector [1] Company Summaries - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) saw a rise of 9.01%, reaching HKD 3.75 [1] - Fuyao Glass (06865.HK) increased by 6.69%, trading at HKD 12.12 [1] - Xinyi Energy (03868.HK) rose by 3.13%, with shares priced at HKD 1.32 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) experienced a 3.05% increase, with a share price of HKD 1.35 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a general rise in stock prices, driven by increasing prices of upstream materials and a recovering market for photovoltaic glass [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) increased by 9.01%, reaching HKD 3.75 - Flat Glass (601865) rose by 6.69%, reaching HKD 12.12 - Xinyi Energy (03868) saw a 3.13% increase, reaching HKD 1.32 - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) grew by 3.05%, reaching HKD 1.35 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - In September, prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and photovoltaic modules all increased, with upstream prices rising more than downstream prices - Photovoltaic glass prices are gradually recovering due to reduced production from leading companies, lower industry inventory, and a contraction in supply [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market is currently weak following a period of preemptive installations, but centralized projects are driving installation demand - Future price stability in the photovoltaic industry is anticipated, influenced by terminal module price support and anti-involution measures - Upcoming policies regarding product sales pricing, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and enhanced product quality standards are expected to be implemented [1] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape and ecosystem of the photovoltaic industry are likely to improve, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The solar stock sector is experiencing a general rise, driven by increasing prices in the photovoltaic supply chain, particularly in polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and photovoltaic modules [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) increased by 9.01%, reaching HKD 3.75 [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865) rose by 6.69%, reaching HKD 12.12 [1] - Xinyi Energy (03868) saw a 3.13% increase, reaching HKD 1.32 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) increased by 3.05%, reaching HKD 1.35 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - In September, prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and photovoltaic modules all saw an increase, with upstream prices rising more than downstream prices [1] - Photovoltaic glass prices are gradually recovering due to production cuts by leading companies, reduced industry inventory, and a contraction in supply [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market is currently weak following a previous surge in installations, with centralized projects driving installation demand [1] - Future price stability in the photovoltaic industry chain is anticipated, influenced by terminal module price support and anti-competitive measures [1] - Upcoming policies regarding product sales pricing, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and enhanced product quality standards are expected to optimize the competitive landscape and industry ecosystem [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 58.8%, while revenue fell by 6.5% to approximately 10.932 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price of solar glass products dropped sharply, impacting profit margins, despite an increase in sales volume [1] - The company is pausing some solar glass production capacity while expanding in Indonesia, with new production lines expected to start in Q1 2026 [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 10.932 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 746 million yuan, down 58.8% [1] - The company’s comprehensive performance showed significant improvement compared to H2 2024 [1] Market Dynamics - The average price of photovoltaic glass has started to recover, with a notable increase in prices for both 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated glass as of September 25, 2025 [2] - The surge in photovoltaic installations in China during H1 2025 was driven by anticipated policy changes, leading to a year-on-year increase of 107.1% in new installed capacity [3] Strategic Outlook - The company has not developed any large-scale solar power projects for grid connection as of H1 2025, with a total approved grid-connected capacity of 6,245 MW [2] - The company maintains a profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.458 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan, and 2.553 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 4.34 HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xinyi Solar Holdings, assigning a target price of HKD 4.34 based on a 25x PE for 2025 [3][28]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from a reduction in photovoltaic glass capacity, leading to a rebound in product prices [1][4]. - The average selling price of photovoltaic glass has shown signs of recovery, with significant month-on-month increases [4][28]. - The surge in China's photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025H1, driven by anticipated policy changes, has created a rush to complete projects before key deadlines [4][28]. Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 10.932 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, and a net profit of approximately RMB 746 million, down 58.8% year-on-year [4][28]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.458 billion, RMB 2.082 billion, and RMB 2.553 billion, respectively [3][28]. - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 3% in 2025, followed by a significant growth of 41% in 2026 [5][28]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of June 30, 2025, the total daily melting capacity of the company's solar glass production is 23,200 tons, with some production lines temporarily suspended [4][28]. - The company is actively evaluating further expansion opportunities in strategic locations while adjusting operational capabilities based on market dynamics [4][28]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - The national average price for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating increased by 11.11% month-on-month to 20 yuan/square meter, while the price for 2.0mm coating rose by 18.18% to 13 yuan/square meter [4][28]. - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a rebound in prices after a period of decline, indicating potential recovery in profit margins [4][28]. Policy Impact - The anticipated changes in policies have led to a significant increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in China, with a 107.1% year-on-year growth in 2025H1 [4][28]. - Developers are rushing to complete projects before the deadlines set by new policy implementations, which has contributed to short-term price increases for solar modules and glass [4][28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in solar stocks is attributed to the announcement of the 2025 renewable energy pricing results in Shandong Province, which indicates a shift towards market-oriented pricing and potential reductions in solar installation volumes in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Solar stocks experienced significant declines, with Rainbow New Energy down 5.16% to HKD 2.39, Xinte Energy down 3.73% to HKD 7.99, Flat Glass Group down 3.36% to HKD 11.23, and Xinyi Solar down 2.63% to HKD 3.33 [1] Group 2: Policy and Pricing - The Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced the competitive bidding results for the 2025 renewable energy mechanism, with solar power selected at a price of CNY 0.225 per kWh for a total of 12.48 billion kWh [1] - The recent "anti-involution" policy aims to phase out outdated production capacity, which may lead to a significant slowdown in solar installations in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In August, polysilicon production rebounded to over 130,000 tons, with expectations of sustained high production levels in September [1] - The demand side saw a dramatic increase in solar installations from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but this has led to a depletion of demand for the second half of the year, as evidenced by only 14 GW of installations in June and further declines in July [1] - There are concerns regarding the potential weakening of polysilicon demand due to the anticipated decrease in solar installations and reduced export demand for battery components [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **polysilicon industry** and its dynamics within the **photovoltaic (PV) sector** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Consumption Standards**: New energy consumption standards may reduce effective polysilicon production capacity by **30%**, down to **2.4 million tons/year**. Non-compliant companies may face rectification or shutdown [1][3]. - **Price Dynamics**: Polysilicon market prices are polarized; resources priced below **52,000 CNY/ton** are in high demand, while those above **53,000 CNY/ton** face limited acceptance. This is attributed to cautious price transmission from components and anticipated hydropower reductions [1][4]. - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The government has strengthened anti-competition policies, introducing penalties for below-cost dumping, which is deemed unfair pricing. This has led to a more robust internal price feedback mechanism [1][5]. - **Profitability Potential**: The average price of polysilicon is approximately **50,000 CNY/ton**, with a cash cost of about **27,000 CNY/ton**, allowing for a net profit of **7,000 CNY/ton**. However, the industry's operating rate is below **70%**, impacting profitability [1][6]. - **Supply Chain Reforms**: Expectations for supply-side reforms in the PV industry are increasing, with a clear logic for price recovery. The commitment to anti-competition measures is crucial for restoring a healthy market structure [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Recent Price Adjustments**: As of September 5, domestic polysilicon prices have increased, with rod silicon priced at **55,000 CNY/ton** and granular silicon at **49,000 CNY/ton**. The PV sector has shown good performance, primarily driven by energy storage [1][8]. - **Challenges in the Industry**: The polysilicon industry faces challenges such as low operating rates, increased fixed costs due to depreciation, and ongoing losses for some manufacturers despite cost optimization efforts [1][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand turning point due to anti-competition measures. Key investment areas include polysilicon materials and PV glass, with specific companies recommended for attention [1][14][15]. Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is undergoing significant changes driven by new regulations and market dynamics. The focus on anti-competition measures and supply-side reforms is expected to lead to improved profitability and a healthier market structure in the photovoltaic sector.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the telecommunications equipment stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing a general increase, driven by a global uptrend in power equipment demand [1] - Shanghai Electric leads the gains with an increase of over 6%, followed by Goldwind Technology at 3.6%, China High-Speed Transmission at 2.5%, and Fulaite Glass at 2% [2] - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that global investment in power grids is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2025, maintaining a high level of market activity [1] Group 2 - AI is projected to significantly boost global electricity demand, leading to a notable increase in the demand for supporting electrical equipment [1] - Major overseas companies are raising their capital expenditure forecasts and increasing investments in AIDC infrastructure [1] - The demand for transformers in the U.S. market continues to strengthen, with high transformer price indices, and the Middle East is experiencing rapid growth in transformer demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of solar stocks, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Fuyao Glass, Xinyi Solar, Xinyi Glass, and GCL-Poly Energy [1] - The article references a statement by Wang Hongzhi, the head of the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the need to address supply-demand imbalances in the solar industry and to promote high-quality development of renewable energy [1] - The article mentions ongoing efforts to combat "involution" competition within the solar industry, which has been a focus since the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024 [1] Group 2 - A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is being proposed, which is significantly stricter than previous versions, indicating a shift towards improved industry standards [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the solar industry is at a price and profit bottom, with the "anti-involution" measures leading to an expansion of participants and significant price recovery [1] - The article suggests that the solar industry is expected to achieve supply-side improvements through a combination of top-level support, market-driven eliminations, and technological advancements, with further policies on capacity and product quality anticipated [1]