Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing significant capital inflows despite global risk asset volatility, indicating a potential rebound in the sector's performance [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 561 billion (approximately USD 498 million) last week, showing a marked increase compared to the previous week [2]. - Technology ETFs linked to Hong Kong stocks saw a total net inflow of HKD 173.59 billion last week, suggesting strong investor interest [4]. - Foreign capital also flowed into Hong Kong stocks, with a net inflow of USD 1.88 billion as of February 4, down from USD 2.8 billion the previous week, but still maintaining a relatively high level [4]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hong Kong technology index tracked by the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF is approximately 26 times, which is significantly lower than the A-share ChiNext index (around 42 times) and the US Nasdaq index (around 37 times) [5]. - Since January 2017, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has increased by 153.72%, outperforming the Hong Kong Internet Index (0.99%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (45.74%) [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current valuation levels in the Hong Kong market remain attractive, with key investment opportunities likely to focus on sectors such as technology innovation and new productivity [6].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 1.59%, reaching 26,982.49, with an increase of 422.54 points [2][6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.9%, closing at 5,447.63 [2][6] - The Hang Seng Biotech Index also increased by 1.9%, reaching 15,508.47 [2][6] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.54%, closing at 9,170.57 [2][6] - The Hang Seng Composite Index increased by 1.63%, reaching 4,126.92 [2][6] Sector Performance Technology Sector - Tech stocks experienced a collective rebound, with notable gains from: - Hua Hong Semiconductor up over 4% [2][6] - Baidu Group, Xpeng Motors, and Bilibili each rising over 3% [2][6] - SMIC, Alibaba, JD Group, and SenseTime all increasing by over 2% [2][6] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a rebound, highlighted by: - Lattice Semiconductor's first-day opening surge of 57% [3][8] - Other companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Naxin Micro rising over 4% [3][8] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector showed signs of recovery, with: - China Silver Group, CGN Mining, Zijin Mining International, and WanGuo Gold Group all increasing by over 4% [4][9] - Other companies like Lijun Resources and Jiajin International Resources also reported gains [9] Notable Stock Movements - Key stock movements included: - Hua Hong Semiconductor at 103.80, up 4.58% [3][7] - Tencent Music at 65.35, up 3.81% [3][7] - Baidu Group at 142.60, up 3.48% [3][7] - Lattice Semiconductor at 168.00, up 57.17% [4][8] - China Silver Group at 0.640, up 4.92% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The chip ETF E Fund (516350) opened with a gain of 1.96%, priced at 1.301 yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The E Fund chip ETF (516350) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Chip Industry Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on December 15, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 27.56%, while its return over the past month has been -0.34% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks within the E Fund chip ETF include: - Cambricon: up 2.22% - SMIC: up 1.86% - Haiguang Information: up 3.43% - Northern Huachuang: up 1.45% - Zhaoyi Innovation: up 2.82% - Lattice Technology: up 4.49% - Zhongwei Company: up 1.62% - OmniVision: up 1.20% - Tuojing Technology: up 1.72% - Unisoc: up 1.49% [1]

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratio are China Telecom (00728) at 71.46%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 68.82%, and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 68.17% [1] - The latest holding ratio rankings for the top 20 companies show significant ownership levels, with China Telecom leading at 99.18 billion shares [1] - The recent five trading days saw Tencent Holdings (00700) increase its holding by 51.95 billion, Southbound Hang Seng Technology (03033) by 17.79 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) by 15.84 billion [1] Group 2 - The top three companies with the largest decrease in holdings over the last five trading days are Yingfu Fund (02800) with a decrease of 35.48 billion, SMIC (00981) with a decrease of 23.60 billion, and Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) with a decrease of 6.58 billion [3] - Other notable companies in the reduction list include Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with a decrease of 6.56 billion and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with a decrease of 5.59 billion [3] - The data reflects significant trading activity and shifts in investor sentiment within the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Group 1 - Elon Musk stated that it is time for a large-scale return to the Moon, with SpaceX hiring engineers to develop AI satellites and space data centers [2] - NASA's new administrator announced plans for a lunar return during Trump's second term, including establishing a lunar base and exploring helium-3 mining [2] - Samsung Electronics will be the first to mass-produce HBM4, a new generation of high-bandwidth memory aimed at AI chips, starting in the third week of February [5][6] Group 2 - Netflix's proposed $82.7 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for potential anti-competitive behavior [7] - In January 2026, the average price drop for new passenger cars was 37,000 yuan, with a total decline of 14.9% in the market [9][10] - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7,419 million ounces by the end of January 2026 [14] Group 3 - The first week of the Spring Festival travel period saw over 1.4 billion people traveling across regions, a 2% increase compared to the previous year [15] - Beijing will launch a new subsidy scheme for replacing old cars with new ones starting February 9, with subsidies up to 20,000 yuan [28] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC is set to announce its Q4 2025 earnings on February 9, which will be a key indicator for China's chip manufacturing progress [29]

Core Viewpoint - The financing balance of A-shares has been declining, with a latest figure of 26,640.67 billion yuan as of February 5, indicating a net repayment trend in financing funds totaling 42.915 billion yuan for the week [1] Industry Summary - The electronic sector led the net repayment of financing, amounting to 10.55 billion yuan [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net repayment of 8.421 billion yuan [1] - The communication, banking, and food & beverage sectors also experienced net repayments exceeding 2 billion yuan each [1] Company Summary - The construction and decoration sector saw net purchases of financing, totaling 319 million yuan [1] - The comprehensive sector recorded net purchases of 80.9149 million yuan [1] - A total of 58 stocks had net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top five being Zhongji Xuchuang, SMIC, Jiejia Weichuang, China Satellite, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, each with net purchases over 400 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 2.24 billion, representing a 6.58% increase in net inflow [1][2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) saw a net inflow of 1.31 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 13.95% [1][2] - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a net inflow of 1.165 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 10.20% [1][2] Group 2 - SMIC (00981) had the highest net outflow at -708 million, with a net outflow ratio of -14.87% [1][2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) recorded a net outflow of -240 million, with a net outflow ratio of -11.75% [1][2] - Kunlun Energy (00135) faced a net outflow of -143 million, with a net outflow ratio of -56.21% [1][2] Group 3 - Southern Hong Kong and US Technology (03442) led in net inflow ratio at 81.60% [1][2] - Zhengli New Energy (03677) followed with a net inflow ratio of 67.80% [1][2] - Jianfa International Group (01908) had a net inflow ratio of 65.59% [1][2] Group 4 - Jinyuan International (02232) had the highest net outflow ratio at -82.51% [1][2] - Kunlun Energy (00135) again appeared with a net outflow ratio of -56.21% [1][2] - Conch Venture (00586) recorded a net outflow ratio of -55.95% [1][2]

Key Points - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing the need for major initiatives and projects to enhance new productive forces, strengthen domestic circulation, and promote income growth for residents [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, up from 74.15 million ounces at the end of December 2025 [3] - Eight Chinese departments, including the People's Bank of China, have issued a notice to further prevent and address risks related to virtual currencies, clarifying that these currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies [4] - A draft national standard for prepared dishes has been released, prohibiting the use of preservatives and limiting shelf life to no more than one year [5] - Shanghai aims to create a trillion-level industry by focusing on new sectors such as smart terminals, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - China successfully launched a reusable experimental spacecraft, which is expected to lead to a normalization of high-frequency commercial space launches by 2026 [7] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a total sales figure of $791.7 billion in 2025, with a 26% growth expected in 2026, potentially marking the industry's entry into the trillion-dollar era [8] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin levels and price limits for several contracts, increasing the margin ratio for gold contracts from 17% to 18% and for silver contracts from 23% to 24% [10] - Guotai Junan Fund has established a working group to address investor concerns regarding the valuation adjustments of its silver LOF fund, emphasizing the protection of investor rights [11] - Major financial reports are expected from companies such as SMIC, Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, and BP in the upcoming week [13][15]

Economic Data - The People's Bank of China will release January CPI and PPI on February 11 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish the monthly report on January commodity residential sales price index on February 13 [1] - Financial data including January social financing and new RMB loans will also be released next week [1] - In the US, December retail sales month-on-month will be announced on February 10, followed by January unemployment rate and non-farm employment data on February 11 [1] Earnings Reports - The US earnings season continues with several notable companies reporting next week, including BP, Barclays, Marriott, Coca-Cola, and AstraZeneca on February 10 [2] - Other companies such as NetEase, Youdao, and Total will report on February 11, while TripAdvisor and Hyatt will report on February 12 [2] - In Hong Kong, SMIC will report earnings on February 10, followed by Budweiser APAC and NetEase Cloud Music on February 11 [2] New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Tongbao Optoelectronics, will be available for subscription on February 9, with Ai De Technology listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 10 [2] - Several new stocks will list in Hong Kong, including Lanke Technology on February 9 and Aixin Yuanzhi on February 10 [2] Stock Unlocking - A total of 33 restricted stocks will be unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 36 billion yuan, led by Hunan YN with 24.096 billion yuan [3][10] Central Bank Operations - The central bank will have 4.055 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3][10] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance will issue the first phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on February 11, with a scale of 14 billion yuan [13]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary [Table_Title] ] 春节前后，港股如何反应？ ——港股市场策略展望 报告摘要： （4）港股天量 IPO 对市场影响不大，影响主要在于 IPO 过后 6 个月 的解禁高峰。典型的例如 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、21 年 二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮都与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属（紫金黄金国际、南山铝业国际）+茶饮（蜜雪冰城） 的解禁潮，中大型规模公司的解禁规模 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的 解禁小高峰。由于港股通账户并不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的 上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资 金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn ...