编辑 王进雨 新京报贝壳财经讯 9月16日，中国神华在港交所发布公告称，前8月累计煤炭销量2.8亿吨，同比减少 9.2%；8月煤炭销量3750万吨，同比减少3.1%。 ...

中国神华9月16日晚间公告，2025年8月公司煤炭销售量3750万吨，同比下降3.1%。2025年1-8月，公司 累计煤炭销售量2.8亿吨，同比下降9.2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, countering the decline in coal prices [1]. - The company is actively pursuing an integrated business model, enhancing its operational stability and future profitability [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 138.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12.0% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 45.79 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% decline [1]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 12.9% to 493 yuan per ton, while the production cost per ton fell by 7.7% to 177.7 yuan [5]. Business Segments - **Coal Business**: The company produced 165 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with total coal sales down 10.9% to 205 million tons [5]. - **Electricity Business**: The company generated 98.78 billion kWh of electricity, a decline of 7.4%, with an average selling price of 386 yuan/MWh, down 4.2% [5]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about demand growth in the second half of 2025, anticipating a national electricity consumption increase of 5%-6% year-on-year [5]. - Ongoing projects and asset acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's integrated operations and overall profitability [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, totaling 19.47 billion yuan, which represents 79% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [5]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 50.52 billion yuan, 52.43 billion yuan, and 55.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.54 yuan, 2.64 yuan, and 2.77 yuan [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that steel mill profitability continues to be under pressure, which is expected to lead to a further decline in coking coal prices in the short term. However, due to a strong increase in July, the baseline coking coal price forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 7% to 13% [1] - The current valuation level of the domestic coal sector lacks attractiveness, leading the company to maintain a "neutral" rating for the industry [1] - The rating for China Coal Energy (601898) has been downgraded to "sell" due to the expectation of negative free cash flow for the year and the management's apparent unwillingness to increase the dividend payout ratio. The forecasted dividend yield for 2025 to 2027 is only 3.7% to 3.9%, with the target price reduced from HKD 7.39 to HKD 7.21. Additionally, the company's earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been cut by 10% to 16% in response to the latest coal price expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite the current market expectations of relatively low coal inventory levels at domestic ports, which could support winter spot thermal coal prices, the overall forecast for spot coal prices for the year has been lowered by 4% due to disappointing price levels in the second quarter [1] - China Shenhua (601088) demonstrated resilient profitability in its interim results, with the smallest decline in unit profits for its coal business during the coal price drop in the first half of the year. The company maintains a "hold" rating, with the target price increased from HKD 32.18 to HKD 39.48 [1]

或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 8 月 | 累计 | 8 月 | 累计 | 8 月 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 商品煤产量 1. | 百万吨 | 28.6 | 223.3 | 28.7 | 224.4 | (0.3) | (0.5) | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 37.5 | 280.2 | 38.7 | 308.7 | (3.1) | (9.2) | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 28.0 | 207.1 | 25.3 | 211.0 | 10.7 | (1.8) | | ...

该行将中煤能源(01898)的评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提 高派息比例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元，并因应 对煤价最新预期，将该公司2025至2027年盈利预测下调10%至16%。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，钢厂盈利持续受压，料将导致焦煤价格在短期内进一步走 弱，但基于7月份强劲升幅，将2025至2027年基准焦煤价格预测上调7%至13%。中银国际认为内地煤炭 板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价格带来支持，但考虑到第二 季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行又指，中国神华(01088)中期业绩展示出 盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持有"评级，目标价由 32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 ...

该行将中煤能源评级降至"沽售"，因公司今年可能录得负数自由现金流，管理层似乎无意提高派息比 例，2025至2027年预测股息回报率仅达3.7%至3.9%，目标价从7.39港元降至7.21港元。该行又指，中国 神华中期业绩展示出盈利具韧性，在上半年煤价下跌期间，其煤炭业务单位利润降幅为最小，维持"持 有"评级，目标价由32.18港元上调至39.48港元。 中银国际发表研究报告指，虽然目前市场预期国内港口煤炭库存水平相对偏低，可为冬季现货动力煤价 格带来支持，但考虑到第二季价格水平逊预期，仍将今年全年现货煤价预测下调4%。该行认为，内地 煤炭板块当前估值水平缺乏吸引力，维持行业"中性"评级。 ...

格隆汇9月16日丨中国神华(01088.HK)公布，2024年8月，商品煤产量2860万吨，同比减少0.3%，煤炭销 售量达到3750万吨，同比减少3.1%。 运输方面，自有铁路运输周转量280亿吨公里，同比增长10.7%；黄骅港装船量1930万吨，同比增长 11.6%；天津煤码头装船量400万吨，同比增长8.1%；航运货运量960万吨，同比减少16.5%；航运周转 量94吨海里，同比减少27.1%。 2025 年 8 月，公司自有铁路运输周转量同比增长的主要原因，是自有铁路沿线煤源充足带来铁路运量 增加；黄骅港装船量同比增长的主要原因，是到港资源量增加；航运货运量及周转量同比下降的主要原 因，是业务结构调整、航线结构变化。 2025 年 1-8 月，聚乙烯、聚丙烯销售量同比增长的主要原因，是上年同期煤制烯烃生产设备按计划检 修导致基数较低。 发电方面，总发电量233.9亿千瓦时，同比增长3.8%；总售电量219.7亿千瓦时，同比增长3.6%。煤化工 方面，聚乙烯销售量3.23万吨，同比增长0.9%；聚丙烯销售量2.81万吨，同比减少4.4%。 ...

中国神华（601088）(01088)发布公告，于2025年8月，商品煤产量为2860万吨，同比减少0.3%;煤炭销 售量为3750万吨，同比减少3.1%。1-8月商品煤产量为2.23亿吨，同比减少0.5%;煤炭销售量为2.8亿吨， 同比减少9.2%。 于2025年8月，总发电量为233.9亿千瓦时，同比增长3.8%;总售电量为219.7亿千瓦时，同比增长3.6%。 1-8月总发电量为1441.2亿千瓦时，同比减少3.8%;总售电量为1354.6亿千瓦时，同比减少3.8%。 ...

| 这宫指标 | 单位 | 2025年 | | 2024 年 | | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (重述后) | | (%) | | | | | 8月 | 累计 | 8月 | 累计 | 8月 | 累计 | | (一) 煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 28.6 | 223.3 | 28.7 | 224.4 | (0.3) | (0.5) | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 37.5 | 280.2 | 38.7 | 308.7 | (3.1) | (9.2) | | (二)运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁微존输碳量 | 十亿吨公里 | 28.0 | 207.1 | 25.3 | 211.0 | 10.7 | (1.8) | | 2. 黄骅巷表船量 | 自月吨 | 19.3 | 146.3 | 17.3 | 144.0 | 11.6 | 1.6 | | 3. 天津煤码头翅量 | 自力吨 | 4.0 | 29.8 | 3.7 | 29. ...