此乃要件 請即處理 閣下如對 本通函任何方面或應採取的行動 有任何疑問，應諮詢 閣 下 的 股 票 經 紀 或 其 他 註 冊 證 券 商、銀 行 經 理、律 師、 專業會計師或其他專業顧問。 閣下如已售出或轉讓名下所有中國現代牧業控股有限公司的股份，應立即將本通函以及隨附之代表委任表格送交買主 或經手買賣的銀行、股票經紀或其他代理商，以便轉交買主。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通函內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明， 並明確表示概不對因本通函全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1117） 關於(1)有關買賣中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司待售股份的有條件協議及 (2)中信里昂證券有限公司代表中國現代牧業控股有限公司提出的 可能強制有條件現金要約以收購中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司的 全 部 已 發 行 股 份（中 國 現 代 牧 業 控 股 有 限 公 司 及 START GREAT已 擁 有 或 同 意 收 購 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in dairy stocks, specifically mentioning Modern Dairy (01117) increasing by 4.14% to HKD 1.51 and Yurun Dairy (09858) rising by 2.94% to HKD 4.91 [1] - On December 22, the Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations for imported dairy products from the EU, deciding to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures [1] - According to Caitong Securities, due to domestic raw milk overcapacity and a downward cycle in milk prices, the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing, creating a window for domestic deep processing capacity expansion [1] Group 2 - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is expected to further solidify the price advantage of domestic products and accelerate the replacement process of domestic deep processing [1] - The increase in domestic deep processing capacity will create additional demand for raw milk, benefiting upstream farms [1] - Companies to watch include Yurun Dairy and Modern Dairy, as they are positioned to benefit from these market changes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in dairy stocks, specifically mentioning Modern Dairy (01117) increasing by 4.14% to HKD 1.51 and Yurun Dairy (09858) rising by 2.94% to HKD 4.91 [1] - On December 22, the Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations for imported dairy products from the EU, deciding to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures [1] - According to Caitong Securities, with domestic raw milk production capacity being excessive and milk prices at a low point, the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing, creating a window for domestic deep processing capacity expansion [1] Group 2 - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is expected to further solidify the price advantage of domestic products and accelerate the process of domestic deep processing substitution [1] - The increase in domestic deep processing capacity will create additional demand for raw milk, benefiting upstream farms, and companies such as Yurun Dairy and Modern Dairy are recommended for attention [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in dairy stocks, specifically mentioning Modern Dairy (01117) increasing by 4.14% to HKD 1.51 and Yuanrong Dairy (09858) rising by 2.94% to HKD 4.91 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on December 22 regarding anti-subsidy investigations on imported dairy products from the EU, deciding to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures [1] - Financial analysts at Caitong Securities (601108) believe that due to domestic raw milk overcapacity and a downward cycle in milk prices, the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing, creating a favorable window for domestic deep processing capacity [1] Group 2 - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is expected to further solidify the price advantage of domestic products and accelerate the process of domestic deep processing substitution [1] - The increase in domestic deep processing capacity will create additional demand for raw milk, benefiting upstream farms [1] - Analysts recommend focusing on companies such as Yuanrong Dairy and Modern Dairy due to these favorable market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive movement in Hong Kong dairy stocks, with companies like Modern Dairy (01117.HK) and China Wangwang (00151.HK) both rising over 2% [1] - Other dairy stocks such as China Shengmu (01432.HK) and China Feihe (06186.HK) also experienced gains, indicating a broader positive trend in the sector [1] - Citic Securities stated that the EU's anti-subsidy ruling is favorable for domestic dairy product substitutes, suggesting a potential boost for local companies in the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU dairy imports, which is expected to accelerate domestic product substitution and stabilize raw milk prices. The policy will impose temporary countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [2][8]. - The policy targets high-fat dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, which have a high dependency on imports. This is expected to significantly increase the cost of EU products, thereby enhancing the price advantage for domestic manufacturers [8]. - The domestic dairy processing industry has historically relied on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology. The report estimates that the domestic production of similar products accounted for only 14%-18% in 2023, indicating a substantial market opportunity for local producers [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 46,266.30 billion and a circulating market value of 45,144.74 billion [5]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -2.1%, with a 6-month performance of 2.7% and a 12-month performance of -4.9%. Relative performance shows a decline of -5.9% over one month, -17.1% over six months, and -22.4% over twelve months [6]. Policy Impact - The countervailing measures are expected to create a market space of approximately 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese, accelerating domestic substitution. The report highlights that the production capacity of deep processing projects is expected to consume over 400 million tons of raw milk, potentially leading to a reversal in the raw milk cycle by the second half of 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment opportunities: - Domestic substitutes that will directly benefit from the policy, with a focus on companies like Lihigh and Miaoke, which are positioned to capture high-end market segments [8]. - Dairy farms such as Youran and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from a reversal in raw milk prices [8]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu, which are anticipated to strengthen their competitive edge through accelerated deep processing business and improved operational stability [8].

Group 1 - Dairy stocks showed significant activity in early trading, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.42% at HKD 1.51, Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 2.88% at HKD 0.25, Mengniu Dairy (02319) up 1.5% at HKD 15.56, and China Feihe (06186) up 1.42% at HKD 4.28 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing duties will be imposed on imported dairy products from the EU, which is expected to benefit domestic dairy producers [1] - Changjiang Securities indicated that with the growth in domestic product demand and low-cost domestic milk prices, the domestic substitution of deep-processed products is likely to accelerate [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities noted that the government is releasing policies to stimulate demand, including the National Healthcare Security Administration's goal for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026, along with local childcare subsidies [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments are working to enhance coordination between commerce and finance to boost consumption [1] - After previous capacity adjustments and accelerated reduction in dairy cow inventory, raw milk prices have stabilized, and a supply-demand turning point is expected in 2026, increasing the certainty of rising milk prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector is experiencing active trading, with several companies showing positive stock performance amid new government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Modern Dairy (01117) increased by 3.42%, trading at HKD 1.51 [1] - Original Ecology Dairy (01431) rose by 2.88%, trading at HKD 0.25 [1] - Mengniu Dairy (02319) saw a 1.5% increase, trading at HKD 15.56 [1] - China Feihe (06186) gained 1.42%, trading at HKD 4.28 [1] Group 2: Government Policies - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary countervailing measures on dairy products imported from the EU, effective December 23, 2025 [1] - Jiangsu Securities noted that the domestic demand for related products is increasing, and low domestic milk prices are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of deep-processed products [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Zhongyou Securities highlighted that policy measures are being released to stimulate demand, including a goal for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026 and local subsidies for childcare [1] - After previous capacity adjustments, the reduction in dairy cow inventory is accelerating, and raw milk prices have stabilized, indicating a potential supply-demand turning point in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong dairy stocks experienced a volatile rebound, with Modern Dairy rising over 3% [1] - Mengniu Dairy's decline narrowed to 0.9% [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本聯合公告的內容概 不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本聯合 公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何 責任。 本 聯 合 公 告 僅 供 參 考，並 不 構 成 收 購、購 買 或 認 購 現 代 牧 業 控 股 或 中 國 聖 牧 證 券 的 邀 請 或 要 約，亦 不 在 任 何 司 法 權 區 構 成 任 何 投 票 或 批 准 的 招 攬。本 聯 合 公 告不會於或向構成違反相關司法權區相關法律的任何司法權區發佈、刊發或派發。 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1117） （股份代號：1432） 聯合公告 有 關 中信里昂證券有限公司代表中國現代牧業控股有限公司 提出的可能強制有條件現金要約以收購中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司 的 全 部 已 發 行 股 份（中 國 現 ...