证券分析师：盛瀚 A0230522080006 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 胡静航 A0230524090002 2026.3.18 内容提要：拥抱周期反转 证 券 研 究 报 告 拥抱周期反转 2026年农林牧渔行业春季投资策略 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 生猪养殖：至暗时刻将至，产能去化提速在即。春节之后，生猪价格加速下跌，3月价格跌破全行业现金 成本。向后展望，进入消费淡季，供给压力仍大，预计肥猪价格将继续探底，叠加饲料价格回升，行业现金 流压力不断累积，与此同时仔猪价格大概率快速回落，共同催化产能去化的明显提速。 ◼ 农产品：原油价格上行有望扭转农产品价格周期。地缘冲突推升原油价格，全球大宗商品供应链面临较 大不确定性，中国主要农产品价格已持续下跌三年，原油价格中枢上行后，将从生物燃料需求与农资成本端 共同支撑农产品价格，粮价周期有望反转。 ◼ 牧业：肉牛先行反转，涨势有望加速；原奶继续磨底，拐点渐近。在经历了前期产能深度去化后，肉牛 供给加速收缩的周期有望于2026年逐步开启（2025年来犊牛价格先行反转已验证了这一供给预期）；原奶 价格仍在磨底，待产能实 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in February 2026, marking the highest growth since January 2023. This recovery is expected to benefit companies with strong pricing power in the food and beverage sector [2][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can effectively pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the condiment and restaurant supply chain sectors, as the industry transitions from a cost dividend phase to an initial stage of price increases [3][40] Summary by Sections CPI and Economic Recovery - The CPI has rebounded, indicating a shift towards moderate inflation, with the government targeting a CPI growth of around 2% for 2026. This is supported by fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases [6][15] - The service sector has become a key driver of growth, with significant increases in service prices contributing to the overall CPI rise [20][23] CPI-PPI Dynamics - The report discusses the narrowing of the CPI-PPI (Producer Price Index) gap, which is currently at 2.2 percentage points. This gap indicates that consumer prices are rising faster than production costs, benefiting companies with strong pricing power [28][30] - The report notes that the PPI has shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in February 2026, suggesting a stabilization in raw material prices [27][29] Cost Transmission and Pricing Power - The report identifies key raw materials that constitute 65%-85% of the operating costs for leading companies in the food and beverage sector, including soybeans, sugar, and dairy products. The ability to manage these costs effectively will be crucial for maintaining profitability [41][44] - Companies in the condiment and restaurant supply chain are highlighted as having strong pricing power, with expectations for a new round of price increases due to rising costs and improved demand conditions [3][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong channel and product capabilities, clear price increase expectations, and high dividend attributes, such as Haidilao, Anjoy Foods, and Mengniu Dairy [3][40] - It also suggests investing in leading beer companies and high-growth regional leaders, as well as companies in the dairy and snack sectors that possess category and channel advantages [3][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical tensions persist, and concerns about inflation have led to a decline in US Treasuries. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen significantly, with the 2 - year yield rising more, reflecting concerns about limited Fed rate - cut space due to rising inflation expectations. The situation's uncertainty remains high, and the duration of the Holmuiz Strait's navigation restrictions is crucial [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index falling 0.5% last week [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds have risen. Factors such as improved inflation expectations, good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and reduced expectations of future monetary policy easing have jointly promoted the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [1][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Off - shore Market - There were 3 new issuances of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $1.45 billion, mainly financial bonds; about 17.5 billion RMB of off - shore RMB bonds were newly issued, also mainly financial bonds [2]. - The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries rose 14 and 16 basis points respectively to 4.28% and 3.72% last week, mainly due to market concerns about potential inflation problems caused by the continuous high oil price [1][2]. - Key - term US Treasuries have fully reversed all their gains this year. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen 11 and 24 basis points respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index fell 0.5% last week, and the spread narrowed by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.5%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index fell 0.4%, and the spread widened by 3 basis points [1][3]. On - shore Market - The People's Bank of China net - withdrew 10.11 billion RMB of short - term liquidity through reverse repurchase operations last week, and inter - bank funding rates rebounded. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 5 and 1 basis points respectively to 1.46% and 1.50% [4]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds rose 1 and 3 basis points respectively to 1.37% and 1.81% last week [4]. - February's inflation data showed improved price pressure, and the continuous geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, improving market expectations of subsequent inflation. The macro data from January to February showed good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and although retail data was still weak, it was better than market expectations. Coupled with the guidance of the People's Bank of China, market expectations of future monetary policy easing have weakened, jointly promoting the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [4]. Recent Newly Issued Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Beijing Construction Engineering (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. issued bonds with a coupon rate of 4.10%, an issue amount of $300 million, and a maturity date of March 19, 2029 [5]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The appendix provides a detailed list of various Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issue amount, maturity date, and ratings from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch [17][19][21].

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig prices are hovering at the bottom, suggesting a new cycle is beginning in the industry. The average price for lean pigs is currently 10.4 CNY/kg, which is a 0.1% increase week-on-week but a 28.4% decrease year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2019 [6][14][25] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, particularly large breeding enterprises such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology and smaller companies like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [6][14][15] Livestock Breeding - The report notes that the current cash flow pressure in the industry is exacerbated by rising feed costs, leading to cash flow losses for most breeding groups. The elimination of sows is expected to accelerate, initiating a capacity reduction phase [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the restaurant chain, which could benefit companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Shares in the white feather chicken segment [6][14] Dairy Industry - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is reported at 3.03 CNY/kg, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, with a stable trend month-on-month. The report suggests that the overall increase in the proportion of breeding cows will help improve the supply-demand balance for raw milk [15][16] Feed and Animal Health - The report highlights that feed prices are rising due to increased fishmeal and soybean meal prices, which could impact the spring stocking of aquatic products. The report anticipates a structural differentiation in the aquaculture industry in 2026, which may increase competitive pressure on local and single-species feed companies [16][17] - Leading companies in the animal health sector are actively seeking breakthroughs in pet healthcare and synthetic biology, which could enhance industry profitability. Companies such as Reap Bio, Keqian Bio, and others are recommended for attention [16][17] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.8 percentage points, with the agricultural products processing, livestock breeding, and planting sectors showing significant gains of 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.1% respectively [23][24] - The report tracks key agricultural product prices, noting that corn prices increased by 1.2% to 2447 CNY/ton, while soybean meal prices rose by 8.3% to 3439 CNY/ton [17][25] Key Company Insights - Huazhong Holdings reported a significant increase in pig sales in February, with a 32.23% month-on-month increase and a 48.78% year-on-year increase, indicating strong sales performance despite price fluctuations [19] - Tianma Technology disclosed its eel output for February, with a total of 1163.92 tons, indicating a stable market for this product [20] - Zhongchong Co. announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds due to favorable stock performance, which may impact its capital structure [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream supply chain dynamics, highlighting that the core logic of performance in the upstream sector revolves around "cost" and "supply-demand" factors, exhibiting clear cyclical characteristics [9]. - It identifies two main drivers for the current uptrend in the upstream food and beverage sector: the rising prices of bulk agricultural products and the ability of companies to directly pass on costs to consumers [9]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments based on geographical and supply-demand logic, with a focus on corn and soybean chains due to their strong price increase expectations [9]. Summary by Sections Upstream Investment Focus - Recommended upstream investment targets include: 1. Agricultural processing: COFCO Technology (000930), Crown Agricultural (600251), Andeli (605198), Jinlongyu (300999), and Zunming (003030) [4]. 2. Food raw material suppliers: Huakang (605077), Morning Light Bio (300138), and Fufeng Group (00546) [4]. 3. Livestock: Recommended Yuran Livestock (09858) and Modern Animal Husbandry (01117) [4]. Downstream Investment Focus - Recommended downstream investment targets include: 1. Baijiu: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Kweichow Moutai (600519), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Shede Liquor (600702) [4]. 2. Catering supply chain: Yihai International (01579) and Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215) [4]. 3. Snack foods: Recommended Yanjinpuzi (002847), Qiaqia Food (002557), and Miaokelando (600882) [4]. 4. Health products: Focus on valuation, with related targets including Minsheng Health (301507) and H&H International Holdings (01112) [4].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部 或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 香港，二零二六年三月五日 截 至 本 公 告 日 期，執 行 董 事 為 孫 玉 剛 先 生 及 朱 曉 輝 先 生；非 執 行 董 事 為 陳 易 一 先生（主席）、張平先生、溫永平先生及甘璐女士；獨立非執行董事為李勝利先生、 李港衛先生及周明笙先生。 承董事會命 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 公司秘書 李國發 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1117） 董事會會議日期 中國現代牧業控股有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）董事會（「董 事 會」）謹 此 宣 佈，將 於 二 零 二 六 年 三 月 二 十 四 日（星 期 二）舉 行 董 事 會 會 議，藉 以 （其 中 包 括）批 准 本 集 團 截 至 二 零 二 五 年 十 二 月 三 十 一 日 止 年 度 的 全 年 業 績 以 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The restaurant sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in consumer demand. During the Spring Festival, restaurant revenue grew by 31.2% year-on-year, with dine-in services up by 26.5% and snack services up by 42.1% [4][5] - The average daily sales of key retail and restaurant enterprises during the Spring Festival increased by 5.7% year-on-year, indicating strong terminal demand. It is expected that revenue for restaurant supply companies will see rapid growth in January and February [4] - The price of raw milk is stabilizing at a low level, with fresh milk averaging 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.3% year-on-year. However, the price of culling cows has risen by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating an upward trend in the beef market [5] - The snack sector performed well during the Spring Festival, benefiting from the return home and "red envelope economy," with significant sales growth in bulk snacks and nut gift boxes [5] - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.54% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 first-level sectors [6] Group 2: Electronic Industry - Nvidia's performance continues to exceed market expectations, with Q4 revenue reaching $68.127 billion, up 73.21% year-on-year, and net profit of $42.96 billion, up 94.47% year-on-year. The data center segment remains a core growth driver [11][12] - The upcoming GTC conference from March 16-19 is expected to showcase Nvidia's new Feynman platform and a new inference chip integrated with Groq LPU technology, indicating a strong focus on AI and inference computing [12] - The electronic sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with effective supply clearing and rising prices for storage chips. There is a strong emphasis on domestic production capabilities [10][14] - The electronic industry index rose by 4.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points, with semiconductor and electronic components showing significant gains [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core View - The market sentiment is dominated by risk - aversion, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 15 and 10 basis points respectively last week to 3.94% and 3.37%. Although recent data shows a rebound in US inflation pressure, risk - aversion sentiment has overshadowed this, causing the yields to drop [1][2][3]. - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has escalated, with the US and Israel launching military actions against Iran and Iran counter - attacking and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which may affect inflation. The military action may last for four weeks, and in the short term, US Treasuries may remain volatile under the resonance of risk - aversion and rising inflation expectations. Higher - than - expected inflation data and the rise in energy prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts have further reduced the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in March [1][3]. - Driven by the significant decline in US Treasury yields, Chinese dollar - denominated bonds performed well last week, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese dollar - denominated bond total return index rising 0.4% for the week. Among them, the high - rating index rose 0.5% and the high - yield index rose 0.2% [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, after the Spring Festival, the central bank net - withdrew short - term liquidity of 611.4 billion RMB through reverse repurchase operations and net - injected long - term funds of 300 billion RMB through MLF over - renewal. Bank - to - bank funding rates have rebounded significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. The 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields were flat and up 2 basis points respectively compared to before the Spring Festival, reaching 1.38% and 1.82%. The domestic interest - rate bond market was also boosted by risk - aversion sentiment on Monday, with yields on Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declining. The Two Sessions will be held this week, and the 2026 economic targets, fiscal support, and possible release of more monetary policy signals will be priced in the bond market [1][4]. 3. Summary by Category Off - shore Market - The issuance of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds remained light, with only one new issuance of over $100 million for the whole week. In contrast, the issuance of off - shore RMB bonds was quite active, with a total issuance of 65.5 billion RMB for the whole week, mainly driven by the issuance of 50 billion RMB central bank bills by the People's Bank of China [2]. - The significant decline in US Treasury yields was due to the market being dominated by risk - aversion sentiment. Although recent inflation data in the US has rebounded, the geopolitical risk has significantly escalated, and the US Treasury market has priced in the war risk in advance [2][3]. On - shore Market - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed back to the banking system. The central bank adjusted the liquidity through reverse repurchase operations and MLF. Bank - to - bank funding rates increased, and the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds changed compared to before the Spring Festival. The domestic interest - rate bond market was affected by risk - aversion sentiment, and the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities declined. The upcoming Two Sessions may bring new economic and policy signals to the bond market [1][4]. List of Chinese Dollar - denominated Bonds The documents provide a detailed list of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds, including information such as issuers, guarantors, coupon rates, issuance amounts, maturities, and ratings [7][17][23].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國現代牧業控股有限公司(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年3月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01117 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the dairy industry, with a clear and steady path towards recovery, expected to reach the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, followed by a rebound in 2026 and a peak in 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" pattern [1][2][3] Group 1: 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with raw milk business revenue at 5.07 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The decline in raw milk prices led to significant non-cash losses in fair value changes of biological assets, resulting in a net profit loss of 980 million yuan in the first half of 2025; however, cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates a balanced supply and demand for raw milk, with prices stabilizing and increasing, alongside rising beef prices due to a supply gap; the acquisition of China Shengmu is expected to be completed, leading to improved profitability [2][3] - Cash profits are projected to grow due to industry capacity clearing and enhanced production efficiency, with raw milk business revenue expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year [2] Group 3: 2028 Peak Outlook - The peak of the dairy and meat cycles is expected in 2028, with domestic fresh milk prices projected to rise to 3.6 yuan/kg and beef prices recovering to previous cycle highs; this will solidify the "stable milk and strong meat" pattern [3] - The company is expected to benefit from its scale advantages, leading production levels, and cost control capabilities, with an estimated total pre-tax profit increase of approximately 3.1 billion yuan from the reversal of the meat and milk cycles from 2025 to 2028 [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at -0.14, 0.09, and 0.17 yuan, reflecting increases of 14% for 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 1.90 HKD for 2026, based on a 19x PE valuation, recognizing its leading position in the domestic livestock industry and the potential for profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [3]