Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy's Tangshan farm exemplifies the integration of technology and nature in dairy farming, showcasing advancements in livestock management and renewable energy utilization [1][5]. Group 1: Technological Advancements in Dairy Farming - The Tangshan farm features modernized cow housing equipped with advanced systems such as intelligent TMR feeding, self-sensing fans, precise spraying devices, estrus forecasting systems, and intelligent waste management [3]. - A smart system platform monitors the health status of each cow in real-time, ensuring optimal care and maximizing milk production through automated milking and quality control systems [3]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Integration - The farm has established a 39.8 MW centralized photovoltaic power station on the roofs of cow houses, utilizing a "full grid connection" model for sustainable green electricity supply [5]. - This innovative "photovoltaic + farm" system creates a synergistic relationship between energy production and agricultural practices, enhancing overall efficiency [5]. Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - The farm's circular system contributes to significant environmental benefits, including annual savings of over 10,000 tons of standard coal and reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by tens of thousands of tons, with an annual electricity generation exceeding 50 million kWh [6]. - The integration of photovoltaic panels and biogas projects establishes a closed-loop system that transforms waste into renewable energy, promoting a zero-carbon cycle [6]. Group 4: Commitment to Quality - During the Xiaoman season, the Tangshan farm leverages its expertise in breeding technology and quality management to create a scientifically sound, comfortable, and environmentally friendly growth environment for dairy cows, ensuring high-quality milk production [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are estimated at RMB 14.44 billion, RMB 15.28 billion, and RMB 16.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 310 million, RMB 750 million, and RMB 1.1 billion for the same years [6][15] - The company’s gross margin for raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at RMB 3.07 per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

智通财经APP获悉，近日，全球知名评级机构标普全球正式发布了备受瞩目的《可持续发展年鉴(中国 版)2025》。现代牧业(01117)凭借在环境、社会及管治(ESG)领域的深度探索与卓越表现，连续第二年 入选这一国际性荣誉榜单，彰显了其在推动绿色发展和履行社会责任方面的领先实力与国际认可。 自2008年起，标普全球推出的《可持续发展年鉴》便以严谨的评估标准与专业评价体系，成为全球ESG 投资者及利益相关方衡量企业可持续发展水平的权威参考，其可持续发展评估(CSA)数据库被公认为行 业标杆。今年，标普全球将目光再度聚焦中国市场。现代牧业凭借对可持续发展战略的长期深耕与显著 实践，以绿色发展、社会价值创造及精细化治理的卓越成效，在1,600多家候选企业中成功突围并再次 入选年鉴，展现出中国乳业领军企业的可持续发展实力与竞争力。 根据标普全球CSA发布的现代牧业的ESG评估结果，现代牧业CSA分数达56分(ESG分数达57分)，较上 一年提升了30%，进步显著。不仅体现了现代牧业在可持续发展战略上的卓越布局，也彰显了其持续创 新和高效执行的能力。 现代牧业高度重视企业治理与可持续发展，构建覆盖全产业链的安全控制体系以 ...

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 13,254 million, a decrease of 1.5% compared to RMB 13,458 million in 2023[10]. - The company experienced a significant loss of RMB 1,469 million for the year, compared to a profit of RMB 185 million in 2023[10]. - The total cost of sales for the group was RMB 9,802.9 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%[144]. - The gross profit for the raw milk business was RMB 3,257.2 million, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 31.2%[154]. - The gross profit for integrated dairy farming solutions was RMB 194.3 million, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 6.9%[154]. - The Group's cash EBITDA increased by 19.6% year-on-year to RMB 2,985.8 million in 2024, with a cash EBITDA margin of 22.5%[177]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities decreased significantly to RMB 2,403.6 million, down RMB 3,045.4 million year-on-year from RMB 5,449.0 million in 2023[184]. Production and Sales - The total raw milk sold reached 289.3 thousand tons, representing a 13.6% increase from 254.7 thousand tons in 2023[10]. - Average annualized milk yield per milkable cow reached 12.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with total raw milk production at 3.005 million tons, demonstrating a year-on-year increase of 16.1%[19]. - Total sales volume of raw milk increased by 13.6% year-over-year to approximately 2.893 million tons, compared to 2.547 million tons in 2023[140]. - Sales revenue from the raw milk business increased by 1.9% year-over-year to RMB 10,454.4 million, up from RMB 10,263.7 million in 2023[136]. - The average selling price (ASP) of raw milk decreased by 10.4% year-over-year to RMB 3.61/kg, down from RMB 4.03/kg in 2023[139]. Debt and Financing - The Group's debt-to-asset ratio increased to 67.2%, up 4.9 percentage points from the end of 2023, while the financing cost rate decreased to 3.40%[19]. - The total interest-bearing borrowings increased by 25.8% year-on-year to RMB 14,463.1 million, up from RMB 11,496.7 million in 2023[191]. - The net gearing ratio increased to 97.1% as of December 31, 2024, up from 74.4% in 2023, reflecting an increase in interest-bearing borrowings[179]. - The annual interest rate for bank borrowings ranged from 2.20% to 4.85% in 2024, compared to 1.50% to 8.16% in 2023[194]. Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company implemented cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancing measures, strengthening its core competitiveness amid a challenging market environment[17]. - The average unit cost of raw milk before inter-segment offset was RMB 2.53/kg, down RMB 0.39/kg from RMB 2.92/kg in the previous year[147]. - Selling and distribution costs increased by 17.8% year-on-year to RMB 445.1 million in 2024, up from RMB 377.8 million in 2023, mainly due to higher raw milk sales volume[166]. - Administrative expenses decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to RMB 766.2 million in 2024 from RMB 852.4 million in 2023, reflecting cost reduction efforts[169]. Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - The company aims to be a global dairy farming leader by deploying the entire industry chain and focusing on digital intelligence and ecological practices[17]. - Modern Dairy's strategic direction includes leveraging digital intelligence to innovate across the entire industry chain[43]. - The Group has developed the "Modern No. 1" Genomic Germplasm "Chip," filling a gap in the domestic commercial dairy cows genomic germplasms market[20]. - The company launched its "Green Leadership 2030" vision and initiated the "65 555 11" plan, focusing on six key areas and five core business areas[64]. - The Group's intelligent digital platform, Yunyangniu, focuses on data integration for dairy cow management, improving breeding capabilities and supply chain accuracy[121]. Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives - The Group has established a green recycling industrial chain for sustainable development, including biogas power generation and fertilizer treatment[126]. - The Group aims to reduce unit carbon emissions by 7%, 15%, and 20% by the end of 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively, using 2021 as the base year[133]. - The Group has been recognized for its green low-carbon initiatives, leading to the establishment of the "FRESH" strategy for sustainable development in the livestock industry[81]. - The company is dedicated to building a green and sustainable development ecosystem across the entire industry chain[41]. Market Conditions and Challenges - Domestic demand for dairy products decreased, leading to a 1.9% year-over-year decline in dairy product output, totaling 29.62 million tons[89]. - China's total raw milk output in 2024 was 40.79 million tons, a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, marking the first decline since 2018[89]. - The average annual prices of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal decreased by 14.8% and 21.3% respectively, providing some relief to dairy farming costs[90].

公 司 研 究 / 上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 10 日 现代牧业 (01117) ——2025 奶价有望企稳回升 轻装上阵业绩有望改善 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7668.38 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.31/0.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 88.66 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 7,915.66 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0764 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -10% 90% 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10 09/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 HSCEI 现代牧业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230 ...

清明节，是二十四节气中的第五个节气，也是传统节日。雨洗尘烟，新绿初绽，正是春耕春种的大好时 节。在陕西宝鸡，一片新绿的苜蓿地与远处秦岭的苍翠轮廓相映成趣，这里藏着一个将科技养殖与乡村 振兴完美融合的典范——现代牧业宝鸡牧场。让我们一起走进这里，赏关中生态牧歌，品绿韵绵长奶 香。 现代牧业宝鸡牧场位于陕西省宝鸡市农牧良种场院内，是一个高标准的专业化和规模化万头奶牛养殖基 地，也是陕西省农业产业化重点龙头企业。 宝鸡牧场依托智能化养殖系统，实现了全自动TMR喂养、全自动清粪、全自动挤奶以及粪肥资源化利 用。牧场规模大、奶牛品质优，凭借其先进的管理理念和科学的饲喂体系，养殖水平与原奶质量管控都 位居行业前列。 为了进一步方便农户施用沼肥、降低种植成本、提高收益，现代牧业宝鸡牧场建设了液肥还田管道，覆 盖土地面积达2800余亩，为周边农户带来了实实在在的便利和效益。 牧场不仅带来了技术，更激活了周边乡村的经济活力。农户在这里找到了工作，实现了"家门口就业"的 梦想。青贮种植面积的扩大，也让更多农户搭上增收快车。 牧场周边，猕猴桃和苗木郁郁葱葱，覆盖面积广阔。得益于现代牧业沼肥还田的推广，这片土地更加肥 沃，作物长势喜 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 现代牧业(1117.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1117 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 0.91/0.63 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 1.14 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 7,915.66 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 132.5 亿元，同比-1.5%，实现股东应占亏损 14.7 亿元，去年同期为实现盈利 1.9 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 68.4 亿元，同比基本持平，实现股东应占亏损 12.6 亿元，去年同 期为亏损 0.3 亿元。公司业绩表现符合之前盈利预警预期。 分析判断: ► ...

买入(首次) 事件 2025 年 03 月 29 日 业绩短期承压，期待原奶价格回升 | 当前股价 | （港元） | 1.13 | | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | （亿港元） | 89.4 | | 总股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 流通股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 52周价格区间 | （港元） | 0.6-1.31 | | 日均成交额 | （百万港元） | 8.6 | 市场表现 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 现代牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 —现代牧业（1117.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日，现代牧业发布 2024 年年报。 投资要点 ▌ 利润短期承压，现金流表现较好 收入符合预期，非现金项目拖累利润。2024 年公司实现营收 132.54 亿元，同减 1.5%； ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but has strong cash flow performance. Revenue for 2024 was 13.254 billion, a decrease of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.469 billion, compared to a profit of 0.185 billion in the previous year. The decline in profit was primarily due to losses from changes in the fair value of dairy cows and goodwill impairment [6]. - The profitability of raw milk continues to improve, with revenue from raw milk reaching 10.454 billion, an increase of 1.9%, and a gross margin of 31.2%, up by 2.8 percentage points. The company anticipates a gradual recovery in milk prices as the industry undergoes consolidation [7]. - The company is expanding its feed business and making breakthroughs in breeding, with comprehensive solutions for dairy farming generating 2.8 billion in revenue, despite a 12.4% decrease. The sales volume of feed has exceeded 1 million tons [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 132.54 billion, down 1.5%, and a net profit of -14.69 billion, compared to 1.85 billion in the previous year. The gross margin improved to 26.0%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Cash EBITDA was 29.86 billion, with a cash EBITDA margin of 22.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 4.0 percentage points respectively [6]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 28.08 billion, up 17.3%, while capital expenditure decreased by 8.1% to 34.52 billion [6]. Raw Milk Business - Raw milk revenue was 104.54 billion, accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.2%. The production volume reached 3.01 million tons, an increase of 16.1%. The average selling price of raw milk was 3.61 yuan/kg, down 10.4% from the previous year, but still above the market price of 3.32 yuan/kg [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 139.50 billion, 147.80 billion, and 156.91 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 0.04, 0.10, and 0.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25, 11, and 7 times for the respective years [10].