公 司 研 究 / 上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 10 日 现代牧业 (01117) ——2025 奶价有望企稳回升 轻装上阵业绩有望改善 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7668.38 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.31/0.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 88.66 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 7,915.66 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0764 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -10% 90% 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10 09/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 HSCEI 现代牧业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230 ...

清明节，是二十四节气中的第五个节气，也是传统节日。雨洗尘烟，新绿初绽，正是春耕春种的大好时 节。在陕西宝鸡，一片新绿的苜蓿地与远处秦岭的苍翠轮廓相映成趣，这里藏着一个将科技养殖与乡村 振兴完美融合的典范——现代牧业宝鸡牧场。让我们一起走进这里，赏关中生态牧歌，品绿韵绵长奶 香。 现代牧业宝鸡牧场位于陕西省宝鸡市农牧良种场院内，是一个高标准的专业化和规模化万头奶牛养殖基 地，也是陕西省农业产业化重点龙头企业。 宝鸡牧场依托智能化养殖系统，实现了全自动TMR喂养、全自动清粪、全自动挤奶以及粪肥资源化利 用。牧场规模大、奶牛品质优，凭借其先进的管理理念和科学的饲喂体系，养殖水平与原奶质量管控都 位居行业前列。 为了进一步方便农户施用沼肥、降低种植成本、提高收益，现代牧业宝鸡牧场建设了液肥还田管道，覆 盖土地面积达2800余亩，为周边农户带来了实实在在的便利和效益。 牧场不仅带来了技术，更激活了周边乡村的经济活力。农户在这里找到了工作，实现了"家门口就业"的 梦想。青贮种植面积的扩大，也让更多农户搭上增收快车。 牧场周边，猕猴桃和苗木郁郁葱葱，覆盖面积广阔。得益于现代牧业沼肥还田的推广，这片土地更加肥 沃，作物长势喜 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 现代牧业(1117.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1117 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 0.91/0.63 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 1.14 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 7,915.66 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 132.5 亿元，同比-1.5%，实现股东应占亏损 14.7 亿元，去年同期为实现盈利 1.9 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 68.4 亿元，同比基本持平，实现股东应占亏损 12.6 亿元，去年同 期为亏损 0.3 亿元。公司业绩表现符合之前盈利预警预期。 分析判断: ► ...

买入(首次) 事件 2025 年 03 月 29 日 业绩短期承压，期待原奶价格回升 | 当前股价 | （港元） | 1.13 | | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | （亿港元） | 89.4 | | 总股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 流通股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 52周价格区间 | （港元） | 0.6-1.31 | | 日均成交额 | （百万港元） | 8.6 | 市场表现 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 现代牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 —现代牧业（1117.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日，现代牧业发布 2024 年年报。 投资要点 ▌ 利润短期承压，现金流表现较好 收入符合预期，非现金项目拖累利润。2024 年公司实现营收 132.54 亿元，同减 1.5%； ...

2025 年 03 月 29 日 业绩短期承压，期待原奶价格回升 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 | 当前股价 | （港元） | 1.13 | | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | （亿港元） | 89.4 | | 总股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 流通股本 | （百万股） | 7,915.7 | | 52周价格区间 | （港元） | 0.6-1.31 | | 日均成交额 | （百万港元） | 8.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 现代牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 —现代牧业（1117.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日，现代牧业发布 2024 年年报。 投资要点 ▌ 利润短期承压，现金流表现较好 收入符合预期，非现金项目拖累利润。2024 年公司实现营收 132.54 亿元，同减 1.5%； ...

成本下降使毛利率及现金EBITDA改善，公允价值变动及商誉减值影响24年报表净利润 尽管受原奶售价下降影响，但受益于公斤奶饲料成本下降16.7%及单产提升带来的内生效益改善，24年 毛利率小幅扩张2.8ppt。得益于毛利率改善，公司24年现金EBITDA同增20%，表现良好。 行业存栏量开始持续去化，周期反转趋势未来利好龙头业绩改善。 根据草根调研，目前牧业85-90%面临亏损压力，行业存栏量于2024年3月已开始环比减少，24年行业存 栏量同比下降，25年1-2月延续去化趋势，该行预计2025年行业有望继续去化。根据统计局数据，2024 年我国牛奶产量4,079万吨，同比-2.8%，该行预计2024年国内原奶供需缺口或约为高单位数至10%左 右，考虑上游去化，该行预计2025年供需缺口有望改善、原奶价格或有望企稳，2026-2027年原奶价格 或有望逐渐进入上行周期。牧业目前处于周期底部，拉长周期看该行认为目前是左侧投资较好时间点。 公司单产延续提升，奶价降幅好于行业 受益于基因改良、技术提升等举措，2024年公司成乳牛单产同比小幅提升1.6%至12.8吨;2024年底公司 牛群规模49.1万头，剔除并表贡 ...

Summary of Modern Dairy's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Modern Dairy - **Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: RMB 13.254 billion, with a cash flow adjustment of RMB 2.986 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.61% [3][4][7] - **Loss**: Reported a loss of RMB 1.469 billion due to non-cash items including a fair value loss of RMB 861 million and goodwill impairment of RMB 599 million [4][10] Key Financial Metrics - **Adjusted Operating Profit Margin**: Increased by 4 percentage points to 22.5% [3][4] - **Dairy Cow Inventory**: Exceeded 490,000 heads, a 9% increase year-on-year, including 30,000 organic dairy cows from acquisitions [4][5] - **Raw Milk Production**: Reached 3.01 million tons, a 16.1% increase year-on-year, with annualized yield per cow at 12.8 tons, up 1.6% [4][5] - **Feed Costs**: Decreased by 16.7% to RMB 1.95 per kg, with sales cost per kg of milk down 13.4% to RMB 2.53 [4][5] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: Operating cash flow, excluding working capital changes, grew 17% to RMB 2.8 billion [4][7] Strategic Developments - **Specialty Milk Production**: Accelerated focus on specialty milk, with organic milk production reaching 470,000 tons and a target of 10% specialty milk by 2027 [4][6] - **A2 Milk Certification**: Achieved for Zhangyuan Phase I and Shanghe Pasture, with plans to increase certified student pastures to 13 [4][6] Industry Insights - **Inventory Reduction**: Accelerated de-stocking in the industry, with small farms disappearing; a potential turning point in dairy supply-demand dynamics expected by Q3 2025 [4][8] - **Import Reduction**: Decrease in imported milk powder, with demand-side stimulus policies likely to address supply-demand discrepancies [4][8] - **Future Impairment Outlook**: Significant improvement in impairment expected in 2025, with no large-scale one-time impairment projects anticipated [4][10] Challenges and Risks - **Market Dynamics**: The industry faces challenges including sales issues, market expansion, and financial pressures, particularly for small-scale farms [20][25] - **Supply Chain Issues**: The trend of small farms exiting the market due to financial difficulties and inability to secure loans [20][25] - **Feed Cost Uncertainty**: Potential challenges from tariff countermeasures affecting feed costs in Q4 [9] Price Trends and Projections - **Raw Milk Price**: Expected to stabilize around RMB 3.45 per kg, with potential to approach RMB 4 per kg [16][22] - **Consumer Demand**: Current demand remains sluggish, with a potential turning point in the second half of 2025 [32][35] Conclusion - Modern Dairy is navigating a complex landscape with significant operational improvements and strategic initiatives in specialty milk production. However, the company faces industry-wide challenges, particularly from small-scale farms and fluctuating market dynamics. The outlook for 2025 suggests a cautious optimism with expected improvements in financial performance and market conditions.

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is expected to see a turning point in the second half of 2024, with signs of recovery in milk powder and beef prices after a prolonged downturn [1][2][3] Industry Summary - The dairy sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, but recent indicators suggest a potential rebound. The domestic milk price is projected to decline in 2024 but may stabilize and improve in 2025 due to accelerated capacity adjustments and rising international milk prices [2][3] - Domestic raw milk production and cattle inventory are both expected to decrease in 2024, with a reported 4.5% drop in cattle inventory, reversing five years of growth. The total raw milk output is anticipated to be 40.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3][4] - The average purchase price of fresh milk in China was 3.11 yuan/kg in February 2024, down 0.3% month-on-month and 14.1% year-on-year, while international prices are significantly higher, with New Zealand at approximately 3.12 yuan/kg, and the US and Europe at 3.83 yuan/kg and 4.01 yuan/kg respectively [3] Company Summary - Modern Dairy reported a revenue of 13.25 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, but cash EBITDA increased by 19.6% to 2.99 billion yuan. The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs to navigate the challenging market [7][9] - The cost of milk sales decreased to 2.53 yuan/kg, down 13.4% year-on-year, and feed costs fell to 1.95 yuan/kg, down 16.7%, contributing to a gross profit margin increase of 2.8 percentage points [7] - Despite a net loss of 1.42 billion yuan in 2024, attributed to declining milk and beef prices and biological fair value adjustments, the company remains optimistic about future profitability as prices stabilize [6][8] - Modern Dairy is diversifying its revenue streams, with a reported income of 2.8 billion yuan from comprehensive breeding solutions and significant advancements in breeding projects aimed at reducing reliance on imported frozen semen [9]

Financial Performance - The company recorded cash EBITDA of RMB 2,986 million, an increase of approximately RMB 490 million or 19.6% compared to 2023[3]. - Total revenue for the year was RMB 13.254 billion, a decrease of 1.5% compared to RMB 13.458 billion in 2023[5]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 1,469 million for the year, compared to a profit of RMB 185 million in 2023[5]. - Gross profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 3,128,013, down from RMB 3,451,465 in 2023, indicating a decline of about 9.36%[9]. - The company reported a net loss before tax of RMB 1,474,212 for 2024, compared to a profit of RMB 228,996 in 2023, representing a significant shift in performance[9]. - The group reported a pre-tax loss of RMB 1,474,212 for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to a pre-tax profit of RMB 228,996 in 2023[29]. - The total dividend declared for the year was RMB 34,888,000, a decrease of 68.8% from RMB 111,997,000 in 2023, with a proposed dividend of RMB 0.0122 per share for the upcoming year[45]. - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB (1,416,753) thousand for 2024, compared to a profit of RMB 175,159 thousand in 2023, indicating a significant decline in performance[46]. Revenue and Sales - Raw milk sales revenue amounted to RMB 10.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9%[4]. - The company’s herd size increased by 9.0% to 491,169 heads, while total fresh milk sales volume rose by 13.6% to 289.3 thousand tons[5]. - Revenue from breeding products and platform services increased to RMB 68,864,000 in 2024 from RMB 51,496,000 in 2023, a growth of 33.9%[23]. - The raw milk business generated external sales of RMB 10,454,371, an increase of 1.9% from RMB 10,263,657 in the previous year[29]. - The integrated breeding solutions segment recorded revenue of RMB 2,800.0 million, a decline of 12.4% from RMB 3,194.6 million in 2023, primarily due to weak market demand[67]. Assets and Liabilities - The company’s total equity decreased to RMB 11,122,796 in 2024 from RMB 11,842,764 in 2023, a decline of approximately 6.08%[12]. - Total assets less current liabilities increased to RMB 25,310,830 in 2024 from RMB 22,931,460 in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 10.05%[12]. - Non-current assets rose to RMB 25,861,893 in 2024, up from RMB 24,526,141 in 2023, reflecting a growth of about 5.43%[11]. - The group’s biological assets had a carrying amount of RMB 12,435,776,000 as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 11,927,977,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 4.3%[21]. - The group’s net debt is approximately RMB 10,795.4 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to approximately RMB 8,813.2 million as of December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of about 22%[89]. Operational Metrics - The average annual milk yield per cow reached 12.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while total raw milk production reached 3.005 million tons, up 16.1%[4]. - The average price of raw milk has been declining for three consecutive years, impacting production motivation and leading to a decrease in raw milk output by 2.8% in 2024, the first decline since 2018[51]. - The average prices of corn and soybean meal, key feed components, decreased by 14.8% and 21.3% respectively, which somewhat alleviated cost pressures for dairy farming[51]. - The proportion of mature cows in the total herd increased to 51.1% in 2024, up 2.6 percentage points from 2023, aligning with the group's herd management strategy[56]. Financial Management - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio increased by 4.9 percentage points to 67.2% by the end of 2024, while the proportion of interest-bearing loans with a maturity of over one year rose to 79.5%[4]. - The financing costs for 2024 are expected to be RMB (528,674), slightly higher than RMB (521,247) in 2023, indicating a rise of about 1.83%[9]. - The company incurred a goodwill impairment loss of RMB 599,240 in 2024, which was not present in 2023[9]. - The company recognized impairment losses of RMB 18,686,000 for trade receivables and other receivables in 2024, up from RMB 17,278,000 in 2023[39]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and build a sustainable business model in the dairy farming industry, focusing on steady growth in core business[96]. - The development strategy will emphasize cost control, lean management, and innovation, while actively embracing digitalization and sustainability[97]. - The company is exploring a comprehensive cattle service industry chain, offering a one-stop solution from breeding to management output, technical training, and consulting services[99]. - The company is actively investing in breeding business to enhance self-sufficiency in core breeding sources and improve dairy cow genetic quality[62]. Market Environment - The government has introduced supportive policies to stabilize the dairy industry, including subsidies for fresh milk and beef cattle production, aimed at reducing costs for farmers and enterprises[52]. - In 2024, China's dairy product imports decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 2.768 million tons, marking three consecutive years of significant decline[53]. - The self-sufficiency rate of raw milk in China increased to 72% in 2024, up 1 percentage point from 2023, reflecting a continuous recovery trend[53].

Summary of the Conference Call on Modern Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy farming industry in China has a low concentration level, with a CR5 of approximately 19%, significantly lower than the CR3 of 50% in the United States, indicating substantial room for improvement [5] - The average scale of the top 30 dairy farming groups has increased by nearly 90% over the past three years, highlighting a clear trend towards larger operations [5] Key Insights on Milk Prices - It is anticipated that fresh milk prices will bottom out and rebound in the second half of 2025, moving away from an L-shaped stagnation [2][6] - Historical average prices from 2016 to 2019 ranged from 2.6 to 3.5 yuan per kilogram, suggesting potential for price recovery as supply and demand dynamics shift [6] Profitability Factors for Dairy Farms - Profitability for upstream dairy farms is strongly influenced by raw milk prices, feed prices, and beef prices. Currently, both raw milk and beef prices are at low levels, but there is strong upward potential [7] - Super-large farms exhibit resilience, allowing them to withstand current pressures and achieve profitability [7] International Market Influence - International raw milk prices from major dairy-producing regions (New Zealand, EU, and the US) are significantly higher than domestic prices, indicating that domestic prices have room to rise [8] Short-term Catalysts - The post-Spring Festival demand slump is expected to lead to further declines in raw milk prices, accelerating capacity reduction in upstream farms and increasing the need for herd restructuring [9] Historical Development of the Dairy Industry - The dairy farming industry has evolved through five stages since 1978, with significant growth and consolidation occurring in recent years [10] Production and Yield Trends - Dairy production increased from 30.74 million tons in 2018 to 41.96 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.43%. However, production is projected to decrease to approximately 40.79 million tons in 2024 [12] - Despite a decline in herd numbers, milk yield per cow has been increasing, indicating potential for overall production stability [12] Modern Dairy's Performance - Modern Dairy's raw milk price has decreased from a peak of 4.38 yuan per kilogram in 2021 to 3.12 yuan per kilogram in early February 2025, yet the company has shown strong resilience with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 37.89% from 2021 to 2023 [13] - The company maintains a close relationship with Mengniu, supplying over 90% of its raw milk to them, which ensures stable and high selling prices [14] Strategic Measures - In response to market changes, Modern Dairy has focused on optimizing herd structure and controlling herd size, resulting in a slight decrease in cow numbers while still achieving revenue growth in raw milk business [15] - The company has effectively controlled feed costs through self-supply and partnerships, maintaining lower feed costs compared to competitors [15] Financial Health - Modern Dairy exhibits strong cash flow and has optimized its leverage, maintaining a conservative approach compared to more aggressive competitors [17] Competitive Advantages - As a leading enterprise, Modern Dairy benefits from genetic improvements and scientific management, stable high-price sales through partnerships, and robust financial health, positioning it favorably within the industry [18]