Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains a "buy" rating for Modern Dairy (01117), expecting EPS of 0.05 and 0.19 yuan per share for 2026 and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle [1] - The company is progressing with the acquisition of China Shengmu, having signed an irrevocable voting proxy agreement on October 30, and plans to acquire 1.28% of Shengmu shares for 37.52 million HKD, which will trigger a mandatory general offer [2] - The acquisition will integrate upstream resources from the major shareholder Mengniu, enhancing scale effects, with the total herd size expected to exceed 610,000 heads and raw milk production to surpass 4 million tons [3] Group 2 - The dairy cow inventory is accelerating its reduction due to ongoing financial pressures and a decrease in heifer restocking, with the impact expected to manifest monthly [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy investigations against dairy products from the EU, imposing temporary anti-subsidy tax guarantees, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing industry [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains a "buy" rating for Modern Dairy (01117), expecting EPS of 0.05 and 0.19 HKD per share for 2026 and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the reversal of the meat and milk cycle [1] - The company is progressing with the acquisition of China Shengmu, having signed an irrevocable voting proxy agreement on October 30, and plans to acquire 1.28% of shares for 37.52 million HKD, which will trigger a mandatory general offer [2] - The acquisition will integrate upstream resources from the major shareholder Mengniu, enhancing scale effects, with the total herd size expected to exceed 610,000 heads and raw milk production to surpass 4 million tons [3] Group 2 - The dairy cow inventory is accelerating its reduction due to ongoing financial pressures and a decrease in heifer restocking, with the impact expected to manifest monthly [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary rulings on anti-subsidy investigations against dairy products from the EU, imposing temporary anti-subsidy tax guarantees starting December 23, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations against EU dairy imports, implementing temporary anti-subsidy deposit measures starting December 23, 2025, which could accelerate domestic dairy product processing and promote local alternatives [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-subsidy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose temporary anti-subsidy tax deposits on EU dairy products, with rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%, generally close to 30% [1]. - The investigation found that EU dairy products have received subsidies that harm the domestic dairy industry [1]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Market - The anti-subsidy tax is expected to increase import prices, thereby accelerating the shift towards domestic dairy product processing [2]. - The current domestic milk prices are lower than international prices, which may further enhance the competitiveness of local products [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is anticipated to increase the consumption of raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [3]. - Domestic milk prices have stabilized since August, driven by supply adjustments from social pastures and increased demand from expanding consumption scenarios such as milk tea [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies benefiting from the deep processing business include Miaokelando (600882.SH), Yili (600887.SH), Mengniu Dairy (02319), and Lihigh Food (300973.SZ) [4]. - Upstream livestock companies that may benefit include Youran Dairy (09858), Modern Dairy (01117), and China Shengmu (01432) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU imported dairy products, specifically targeting cheese and high-fat cream, which are core categories in deep processing of dairy products. This policy is set to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers and is expected to have a rapid market impact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling on countervailing investigations against EU dairy imports, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic industry. Starting December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide a deposit of 21.9% to 42.7% based on the value of the goods [2]. Characteristics of the Policy - The ruling specifically targets cheese and high-fat cream, which are heavily reliant on imports, with over 50% of high-fat cream being imported. The measures impose a significant cost increase on EU products, with an average subsidy rate close to 30%. The policy takes effect immediately, demonstrating the government's commitment to market stability [3]. Market Impact - The countervailing policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the deep processing sector, potentially freeing up a market space of 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese. Historically, China's dairy processing industry has been heavily reliant on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology, with domestic products only accounting for 14%-18% of the market in 2023. The policy is anticipated to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers, particularly benefiting those in high-fat cream production [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities: - Domestic substitution beneficiaries: Recommended stocks include Lihigh Foods (300973.SZ) and Miaokelando (600882.SH), with Lihigh being the largest domestic cream producer and poised to benefit from price increases in imported brands [5]. - Dairy price reversal benefiting upstream farms: Companies like Youran Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) are highlighted, as they are expected to show resilience and potential profit recovery with the reversal of raw milk prices [5]. - Strengthening competitiveness of leading dairy companies: Recommendations include Yili (600887.SH) and Mengniu Dairy (02319), which are expected to benefit from stabilized milk prices and accelerated deep processing business, enhancing their long-term growth potential [5].

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear non-registered shareholder(s)(Note) , 24 December 2025 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") - Extraordinary General Meeting ("EGM") of the Company to be held on Friday, 16 January 2026 The EGM of the Company will be held virtually using online platform at https://meetings.computershare.com/CMD_EGM2025 (the "Online Platform") at 10:00 a.m. on Frid ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear registered shareholder(s), 各位登記股東： 24 December 2025 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") - Extraordinary General Meeting ("EGM") of the Company to be held on Friday, 16 January 2026 The EGM of the Company will be held virtually using online platform at https://meetings.computershare.com/CMD_EGM2025 (the "Online Platform") at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear non-registered shareholder(s), China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") – Notice of Availability - Notice of publication of Circular containing Notice of Extraordinary General Meeting (the "Current Corporate Communication") The English and Chinese versions of the Company's Current Corporate Communication are now available on the Company's website at w ...

(Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear registered shareholder(s), China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") – Notice of Availability China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 24 December 2025 - Notice of publication of Circular containing Notice of Extraordinary General Meeting and Proxy Form (the "Current Corporate Communications") The English and Chinese versions of the Company's Current Corporate Communications are now availabl ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1117） 於 二 零 二 六 年 一 月 十 六 日（星 期 五）上 午 十 時 正 以 電 子 方 式 舉 行 之 股 東 特 別 大 會（或 其 任 何 續 會）適 用 的 代 表 委 任 表 格 吾╱吾等 （附註1） 地 址 閣下是自願提供 閣下及 閣下委任代表之姓名及地址，以用於處理就本公司股東特別大會有關 閣 下 委 任 代 表 之 任 命 及 投 票 指 示（「該等用途」）。我 們 可能向就該等用途為我們提供行政、電腦及其他服務之代理人、承辦商或第三方服務供應商，以及其他獲法例授權而要求取得有關資料之人士或其他 與上述所列出之該等用途有關以及需要接收有關資料之人士提供 閣下及 閣 下 委 任 代 表 之 姓 名 及 地 址。 閣下所提供 閣下及 閣下委任代表之姓 名 及 地 址 將 就 履 行 該 等 用 途 所 需 之 時 間 內 保 留。有 關 存 取 及╱或 更 正 相 關 個 人 資 料 的 要 求 可 按 照 個 人 資 料（私 隱）條 例 提 出， ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1117） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通告的內容概不負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本通告全部 或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 股東特別大會通告 茲通告 中 國 現 代 牧 業 控 股 有 限 公 司（「現代牧業控股」）謹 訂 於 二 零 二 六 年 一 月 十 六 日（星 期 五）上 午 十 時 正 透 過 https://meetings.computershare.com/CMD_EGM2025 可 訪 問 的 網 上 平 台 以 電 子 方 式 舉 行 股 東 特 別 大 會，以 考 慮 並 酌 情 通 過 下 列 決 議 案 為 現 代 牧 業 控 股 普 通 決 議 案（不 論 有 否 修 訂）。除 本 通 告 另 有 界 定 者 外，本 通 告 所 用 詞 彙 與 現 代 牧 業 控 股 日 期 為 二 零 二 五 年 十 二 月 二 十 四 日 的 通 函（「通 函 ...