Group 1 - Dairy stocks have seen significant gains, with Australia Asia Group rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Dairy up by 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Dairy and China Shengmu also experiencing increases [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" starting January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of HKD 3,600 per child for infants under three years old, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately HKD 100 billion, which is expected to boost demand in the dairy sector [1] - The meat and milk cycle is positively impacting livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to enhance profitability and cash flow for companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu, with projected revenue increases of HKD 440 million, HKD 340 million, and HKD 80 million respectively under a 40% increase in beef prices [1] Group 2 - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, benefiting the raw milk supply structure and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1] - There is a recommendation to prioritize investment in leading livestock companies listed in Hong Kong due to the favorable market conditions [1]

财通证券则指出，肉奶周期共振，从两个维度利好牧企。短期来看，肉牛价格上涨可直接增厚牧企淘牛 收益，带来可观的利润及现金流改善。经过测算，相较2024年水平，在淘牛价格上涨40%假设下，预计 优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧通过淘牛或可分别增加收益4.4、3.4、0.8亿元。中期来看，肉牛价格上 行有望催化行业内社会牧场存栏加速出清，利好原奶供给格局改善，从而进一步传导至原奶价格。优先 关注港股牧业龙头公司。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式 进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有加码可能，提振乳品等行业需 求。 智通财经APP获悉，乳业股涨幅居前，截至发稿，澳亚集团(02425)涨35.62%，报1.98港元；现代牧业 (01117)涨13.49%，报1.43港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨9.21%，报0.415港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨7.95%， 报0.475港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.19%，报4.36港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy in China is expected to significantly boost demand in the dairy industry, leading to notable stock price increases for major dairy companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Dairy stocks have seen substantial gains, with Australia Asia Group (02425) rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Farming (01117) up 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Farming (01431) and China Shengmu (01432) also experiencing increases [1] - The overall positive sentiment in the dairy sector is reflected in the stock performance of leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly implemented child-rearing subsidy scheme will provide annual subsidies of CNY 3,600 per child for children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately CNY 100 billion [1] - This subsidy is expected to have a multiplier effect, enhancing demand for dairy products and benefiting the industry as a whole [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current meat and milk cycle is favorable for livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to improve profitability and cash flow for these firms [1] - Projections indicate that under a scenario where beef prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, companies like Yuran Farming, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of CNY 440 million, CNY 340 million, and CNY 80 million respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02425 | 澳亚集团 | (0) | 1.650 | 13.01% | | 01432 | 中国圣牧 | | 0.480 | 9.09% | | 01117 | 现代牧业 | | 1.360 | 7.94% | | 09858 | 优然牧业 | | 4.340 | 7.69% | | 01431 | 原生态牧业 | | 0.395 | 3.95% | | 02319 | 蒙牛乳业 | | 16.320 | 0.12% | 消息上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生 育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低家 庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000多 万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 另外，华泰证券最新报告指，在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来 从"规模扩张"向"价值提升"的战 ...

截 至 本 公 告 日 期，執 行 董 事 為 孫 玉 剛 先 生 及 朱 曉 輝 先 生；非 執 行 董 事 為 趙 傑 軍 先 生（主 席）、張 平 先 生、陳 易 一 先 生 及 甘 璐 女 士；以 及 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 為 李 勝 利 先生、李港衛先生及周明笙先生。 董事會會議日期 中 國 現 代 牧 業 控 股 有 限 公 司（「本公司」）董 事 會（「董事會」）謹 此 宣 佈，將 於2025年 8月26日（星 期 二）舉 行 董 事 會 會 議，藉 以（其 中 包 括）批 准 本 公 司 及 其 附 屬 公 司 截 至2025年6月30日止六個月的未經審核綜合財務報表及中期業績公告以及其刊發， 並酌情考慮派發中期股息的建議。 承董事會命 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 公司秘書 李國發 香港，2025年8月11日 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部 或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代 ...

国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 ...

乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 ...

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a significant rise, with China Shengmu (01432) up 12.66% to HKD 0.445, YouRan Dairy (09858) up 8.87% to HKD 4.05, Modern Dairy (01117) up 8.77% to HKD 1.24, and Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 7.14% to HKD 0.375 [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" starting January 1, 2025, will provide a subsidy of HKD 3,600 per child per year for families with children under three years old, significantly reducing family childcare costs and stimulating birth rates and consumption potential in infant families, especially in lower-tier cities [1] - The annual distribution of childcare subsidies is estimated to be around HKD 100 billion, which is expected to have a multiplier effect and potentially increase demand in the dairy industry [1] Group 2 - The formal introduction of the national subsidy into the fertility sector reflects the government's high emphasis on fertility issues, with the dairy sector likely to see increased attention as national policies are implemented and followed by local policies [1] - The policy's alignment with previous expectations and its positive signal upon implementation indicate a strong governmental commitment to addressing fertility challenges, which is anticipated to boost the dairy product sector, particularly infant formula consumption [1]

Core Insights - Modern Dairy has achieved a significant improvement in its ESG rating, moving from A to AA, with a comprehensive score of 8.78, and has risen from 31st to 2nd place in the rankings, indicating its leadership in ESG practices [1] Group 1: ESG Rating and Performance - Wind ESG's rating system is based on international ESG principles, integrating assessment frameworks with the characteristics of the Chinese capital market, and has evaluated over 12,000 companies in Greater China [5] - Achieving an AA rating signifies high management standards, low ESG risks, and strong sustainable development capabilities for companies [5] Group 2: Sustainable Development Initiatives - Modern Dairy emphasizes environmental protection and green development, actively promoting ISO 14001 environmental management systems and ISO 14064 greenhouse gas verification, while optimizing carbon management and resource recycling mechanisms [5] - The company focuses on employee development and community building, enhancing occupational health and safety systems, and continuously advancing talent development projects to create a sustainable industrial ecosystem [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Modern Dairy plans to continue implementing its sustainable development strategy "FRESH," responding to national strategies and green development calls, and exploring green practices suitable for industry promotion [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The dairy industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, influenced by the growth cycle of cattle, which takes approximately 13 months from calf to mature cow [1] - The industry has become increasingly large-scale since 2008, driven by food safety incidents and environmental regulations, leading to a consolidation of farms [2] - As of 2020, leading farms accounted for 43% of the market, although the overall competition remains fragmented with top companies holding less than 4% market share [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Milk price fluctuations are influenced by both supply and demand factors [3] - Supply factors include the price of imported milk powder, which serves as a substitute for fresh milk when prices are lower abroad [3] - Demand factors are driven by population growth and per capita dairy consumption, which is affected by income levels and health awareness [5] - Feed costs constitute about 70% of the raw milk sales cost, making it a significant factor in dairy farming profitability [5] Historical Price Cycles - The industry has experienced three major cycles from 2008 to present: - **2008-2013**: Milk prices fell due to the melamine scandal, leading to reduced demand [6] - **2013-2018**: Prices rose due to supply constraints from disease outbreaks and rising feed costs, followed by a decline due to increased imports [7] - **2019-Present**: Prices have been rising due to supply reductions from farm exits and supportive policies, although a recent oversupply has led to price declines starting in 2021 [9] Current Market Conditions - Current milk prices are around 3203, showing a slight decline from the previous week [9] - The industry is in a phase of bottoming out, with many farms facing losses due to falling prices and rising feed costs [10] - Factors such as rising beef prices and seasonal procurement pressures are expected to increase financial strain on smaller farms [11] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see a balance between supply and demand, aided by government subsidies and new standards reducing reliance on imported milk powder [12] - Companies like YouRan are expected to benefit from a rebound in milk prices, with potential profit increases linked to higher proportions of premium milk sales [13] - The integration of supply chains and cost management strategies are expected to enhance profitability for leading firms [17] Company-Specific Insights - YouRan's revenue is significantly supported by stable demand from major customers like Yili, which accounts for 95% of its raw milk income [16] - The company has a diversified product range, including organic and premium milk, which helps mitigate risks associated with falling milk prices [14] - The overall industry outlook suggests that leading companies will benefit from cost reductions and a potential rebound in milk prices, with historical price cycles indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [23][24] Conclusion - The dairy industry is currently navigating a challenging environment with fluctuating prices and rising costs, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support and market adjustments. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these changes through strategic management and product differentiation.