Core Insights - Modern Dairy has been awarded the CDP management level rating for the third time, highlighting its leadership in sustainable practices within the global dairy industry [1] - The CDP has gathered over 640 signatories representing approximately $127 trillion in assets, with nearly 25,000 companies disclosing environmental impact data [1] Climate Change - The company has established clear carbon reduction targets and developed a comprehensive carbon management system that spans the entire production cycle, from feed cultivation to waste treatment [2] - Modern Dairy's biogas generation has exceeded 100 million kilowatt-hours annually, with renewable energy usage accounting for nearly 60% [2] - The "full lifecycle low-carbon ranch" project has received multiple recognitions, including from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [2] Water Security - Efficient water resource management is a key component of the company's sustainability strategy, with significant water-saving measures implemented across various business units [4] - The company has achieved a 39% increase in water use efficiency in dairy farming through real-time data management [4] - Approximately 9.78 million cubic meters of wastewater are recycled annually, demonstrating the company's commitment to reducing environmental impact [4] Forest Protection - Modern Dairy aims to achieve a "zero deforestation" goal by 2030, actively managing forest risk in its supply chain [6] - In 2024, the company plans to source 42,000 tons of zero-deforestation or sustainably certified soybean meal, representing 13% of its total soybean meal procurement [6] - The company emphasizes traceability in its supply chain and collaborates with key suppliers to implement deforestation-free procurement initiatives [6] Sustainable Development Philosophy - The company adheres to a "coexistence with nature" philosophy and aims to integrate commercial growth with ecological value through its "FRESH" strategy [6] - Modern Dairy is committed to leading the industry towards a green and low-carbon development model, contributing to high-quality growth and sustainable prosperity in global dairy [6]

Core Insights - Modern Dairy has been awarded the CDP management level rating for the third time, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development through excellent ESG governance in greenhouse gas reduction, water resource management, and forest protection [1][2] Group 1: Climate Change - The company has established clear carbon reduction targets and has developed a comprehensive carbon emission management system that spans the entire production cycle, from feed planting to waste treatment [3] - Modern Dairy's biogas generation has exceeded 100 million kilowatt-hours annually, with renewable energy usage accounting for nearly 60%, demonstrating significant carbon reduction achievements [3] - The "low-carbon dairy farm" project has received multiple recognitions, including being listed as an excellent practice by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [3] Group 2: Water Security - Efficient water resource management is a key component of the company's sustainable development strategy, with specific water-saving targets set across various business units [5] - The company has achieved a 39% increase in water use efficiency in dairy farming through real-time data management of cooling systems [5] - In feed planting, the implementation of smart irrigation technology has resulted in water savings of 25-30% per acre, effectively reducing resource consumption [5] Group 3: Forest Protection - Modern Dairy aims to achieve a "zero deforestation" goal by 2030, actively managing forest risk in its supply chain by prioritizing suppliers that do not contribute to deforestation [7] - In 2024, the company plans to source 42,000 tons of deforestation-free or sustainably certified soybean meal, representing 13% of its total soybean meal procurement [7] - The company emphasizes traceability in its procurement process and collaborates with key suppliers to implement deforestation-free sourcing pilot projects, reinforcing its role as a leader in sustainable development within the industry [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國現代牧業控股有限公司(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01117 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The raw milk price is stabilizing and expected to rise in 2026, benefiting from the reduction in supply-side expansion and a decrease in breeding stock, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side [2][3] Group 1: Raw Milk Price Trends - The raw milk price has shown signs of recovery in September due to seasonal supply-demand mismatches and the implementation of new sterilized milk standards, leading to a preliminary balance in the industry supply-demand structure [2] - The self-sufficiency rate of raw milk in China exceeds 70%, with imports of dry dairy products equivalent to 15 million tons of fresh milk in 2024, accounting for 37% of raw milk production [2] - Major companies like Yili and Mengniu are enhancing their processing capacity, which is expected to further boost raw milk demand as domestic substitution increases [2] Group 2: Beef Cattle Market Outlook - The stock of breeding cows continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% in national cattle stock as of Q3 2025, indicating a sustained supply gap and a favorable market cycle expected to continue until 2027 [3] - The U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef starting August 2025, leading to increased beef imports into China, with the impact of this tariff expected to diminish following policy relaxations in November [3] - Future import restrictions could further stimulate domestic beef demand, especially as the investigation into beef import measures concludes in January [3] Group 3: Profitability and Margin Improvements - Profitability for dairy farming leaders is expected to improve significantly, with gross margins potentially increasing by over 6% to 10% if milk prices rise by 10% to 20% [3] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are anticipated to increase, with companies like Yuran and Modern Farming expected to see additional revenue of 240 million and 180 million yuan respectively from rising cattle prices [3] - The fair value of breeding cows is likely to benefit from the reversal in milk prices, reduced feeding costs, and optimized herd structures [3]

Core Insights - China Modern Dairy Holdings Limited has been awarded the "Best Bond Deal of 2025" by FinanceAsia for its 5-year $350 million senior unsecured sustainable development bond issuance, recognizing its leadership in sustainable finance and impactful industry contributions [1][6] Group 1: Milestones Achieved - The bond issuance is the first sustainable USD bond in the Asia-Pacific food and beverage sector and the first globally in the dairy industry [1][3] - The issuance received a second-party opinion from Moody's and was rated SQS3 (Good), highlighting its best practices in fundraising, project evaluation, and fund management [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite a challenging market environment with expectations of global interest rate cuts and currency fluctuations, the issuance was successfully completed with strong investor demand [4][5] - The final order book exceeded $1.2 billion, achieving a subscription rate of 3.4 times, and the issuance size was increased from $300 million to $350 million due to high demand [5] Group 3: Recognition and Impact - The bond issuance set a record for the narrowest spread for a BBB-rated issuer in the Asia-Pacific food and beverage sector in 2025 [6] - The successful issuance not only secured critical funding for the company's green and social responsibility projects but also showcased the leadership of the Chinese dairy industry in the ESG space [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities emphasizes the importance of consumption in economic growth, predicting a stabilization in the consumption fundamentals in 2026, which presents a significant opportunity for investment in the food and beverage industry [1] Group 1: Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector is at a cyclical bottom, with low expectations, low holdings, and low valuations, suggesting potential for left-side layout opportunities [2] - The rapid clearing of financial reports in the past two quarters indicates a resolution of supply-demand conflicts, with a gradual recovery in household consumption expected [2] - The white liquor business model remains strong, and with a potential economic recovery, valuations are likely to rebound quickly [2] Group 2: Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to maintain a structural market in 2026, with investment opportunities in companies with strong single-product growth logic and those benefiting from competitor adjustments [3] - Overall profitability in the beer sector is on an upward trend, driven by the expansion of products priced between 8-10 yuan and improved efficiency from lean management [3] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is positioned for a turnaround in the raw milk cycle in 2026, with a focus on the profitability elasticity of the dairy supply chain [4] - Demand for dairy products has shown differentiation, with low-temperature fresh milk and cheese experiencing healthy growth, while room temperature liquid milk has been a drag [4] - The average milk price in major production areas is expected to recover above the average cost of production in 2026, making it an opportune time to invest in the dairy supply chain [4] Group 4: Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink sector has seen significant performance differentiation, with companies in strong growth categories leading the industry [5] - In 2026, there is a focus on functional beverages and the competitive landscape of packaged water, with an emphasis on companies introducing new products [5] - The demand for low-sugar functional beverages is anticipated to grow, particularly among white-collar workers seeking fatigue-relief options [5] Group 5: Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from strong new channel drivers, with expectations of improved gross and net profit margins due to scale effects [6] - The konjac product category is maintaining high market interest, with significant growth potential in China [6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong performance during the adjustment period and those with leading products in the snack sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in vegetables and corrugated paper, with the spot cost index for vegetables rising by 7.08% month-on-month and 16.16% year-on-year, while corrugated paper prices increased by 8.81% month-on-month and 17.49% year-on-year [6][24][27]. - Most spot cost indices for monitored consumer goods have risen, while futures cost indices have generally declined, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [31]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 2.25% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.04% since the beginning of the year [12][32]. - The futures index also fell by 2.62% month-on-month, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12][32]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments decreased by 0.95% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 3.50% since the start of the year [15][33]. - Soybean prices have shown an increase, with spot prices rising by 1.38% month-on-month [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.07% [18][34]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.03 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.64% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.47% [21][35]. - Palm oil prices have decreased significantly, impacting production costs [21][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 0.37% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.52% [24][36]. - Vegetable prices have surged due to adverse weather conditions, contributing to rising costs [24][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 2.50% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.70% [27][37]. - The price of PET chips has declined, affecting overall production costs [27][37].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

Core Viewpoint - Modern Farming (01117) has been recognized as a "2025 Excellent Practice Case for Sustainable Development of Listed Companies" by the China Listed Companies Association for its achievements in digital innovation in smart farming and deep governance of process waste gas [1][3] Group 1: Social Dimension - The company has made key breakthroughs in gene breeding and digital farming, developing the "Modern No. 1" genomic chip to shift dairy cattle breeding from "import dependence" to "self-control" [3] - Modern Farming has established smart platforms like "Cloud Cattle" and "AI Cattle Doctor," equipping 60,000 dairy cows with smart collars for health monitoring and precise feeding, showcasing the company's commitment to technology-driven innovation and responsibility [3] Group 2: Environmental Dimension - The company has been recognized for its pollution prevention and ecosystem protection efforts, creating a green circular industry chain that utilizes 100% of manure resources [3] - In 2024, the biogas power generation is expected to exceed 107 million kilowatt-hours, with over 8 million tons of organic fertilizer promoted, demonstrating significant carbon reduction effects [3] - Modern Farming actively conducts biodiversity assessments and ecological restoration, implementing biogas fertilizer return and saline-alkali land improvement in regions like Inner Mongolia and Tokto, achieving both ecological benefits and agricultural income [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company will continue to adhere to the development philosophy of "Technology for Good, New Agriculture," implementing the national "dual carbon" strategy and deepening green low-carbon farming models [3] - It aims to enhance manure resource utilization and ecological protection technologies, driving the entire industry chain towards a new stage of efficient, green, and sustainable high-quality development [3]