国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 ...

乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 ...

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a significant rise, with China Shengmu (01432) up 12.66% to HKD 0.445, YouRan Dairy (09858) up 8.87% to HKD 4.05, Modern Dairy (01117) up 8.77% to HKD 1.24, and Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 7.14% to HKD 0.375 [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" starting January 1, 2025, will provide a subsidy of HKD 3,600 per child per year for families with children under three years old, significantly reducing family childcare costs and stimulating birth rates and consumption potential in infant families, especially in lower-tier cities [1] - The annual distribution of childcare subsidies is estimated to be around HKD 100 billion, which is expected to have a multiplier effect and potentially increase demand in the dairy industry [1] Group 2 - The formal introduction of the national subsidy into the fertility sector reflects the government's high emphasis on fertility issues, with the dairy sector likely to see increased attention as national policies are implemented and followed by local policies [1] - The policy's alignment with previous expectations and its positive signal upon implementation indicate a strong governmental commitment to addressing fertility challenges, which is anticipated to boost the dairy product sector, particularly infant formula consumption [1]

Core Insights - Modern Dairy has achieved a significant improvement in its ESG rating, moving from A to AA, with a comprehensive score of 8.78, and has risen from 31st to 2nd place in the rankings, indicating its leadership in ESG practices [1] Group 1: ESG Rating and Performance - Wind ESG's rating system is based on international ESG principles, integrating assessment frameworks with the characteristics of the Chinese capital market, and has evaluated over 12,000 companies in Greater China [5] - Achieving an AA rating signifies high management standards, low ESG risks, and strong sustainable development capabilities for companies [5] Group 2: Sustainable Development Initiatives - Modern Dairy emphasizes environmental protection and green development, actively promoting ISO 14001 environmental management systems and ISO 14064 greenhouse gas verification, while optimizing carbon management and resource recycling mechanisms [5] - The company focuses on employee development and community building, enhancing occupational health and safety systems, and continuously advancing talent development projects to create a sustainable industrial ecosystem [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Modern Dairy plans to continue implementing its sustainable development strategy "FRESH," responding to national strategies and green development calls, and exploring green practices suitable for industry promotion [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The dairy industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, influenced by the growth cycle of cattle, which takes approximately 13 months from calf to mature cow [1] - The industry has become increasingly large-scale since 2008, driven by food safety incidents and environmental regulations, leading to a consolidation of farms [2] - As of 2020, leading farms accounted for 43% of the market, although the overall competition remains fragmented with top companies holding less than 4% market share [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Milk price fluctuations are influenced by both supply and demand factors [3] - Supply factors include the price of imported milk powder, which serves as a substitute for fresh milk when prices are lower abroad [3] - Demand factors are driven by population growth and per capita dairy consumption, which is affected by income levels and health awareness [5] - Feed costs constitute about 70% of the raw milk sales cost, making it a significant factor in dairy farming profitability [5] Historical Price Cycles - The industry has experienced three major cycles from 2008 to present: - **2008-2013**: Milk prices fell due to the melamine scandal, leading to reduced demand [6] - **2013-2018**: Prices rose due to supply constraints from disease outbreaks and rising feed costs, followed by a decline due to increased imports [7] - **2019-Present**: Prices have been rising due to supply reductions from farm exits and supportive policies, although a recent oversupply has led to price declines starting in 2021 [9] Current Market Conditions - Current milk prices are around 3203, showing a slight decline from the previous week [9] - The industry is in a phase of bottoming out, with many farms facing losses due to falling prices and rising feed costs [10] - Factors such as rising beef prices and seasonal procurement pressures are expected to increase financial strain on smaller farms [11] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see a balance between supply and demand, aided by government subsidies and new standards reducing reliance on imported milk powder [12] - Companies like YouRan are expected to benefit from a rebound in milk prices, with potential profit increases linked to higher proportions of premium milk sales [13] - The integration of supply chains and cost management strategies are expected to enhance profitability for leading firms [17] Company-Specific Insights - YouRan's revenue is significantly supported by stable demand from major customers like Yili, which accounts for 95% of its raw milk income [16] - The company has a diversified product range, including organic and premium milk, which helps mitigate risks associated with falling milk prices [14] - The overall industry outlook suggests that leading companies will benefit from cost reductions and a potential rebound in milk prices, with historical price cycles indicating a strong likelihood of recovery [23][24] Conclusion - The dairy industry is currently navigating a challenging environment with fluctuating prices and rising costs, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support and market adjustments. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these changes through strategic management and product differentiation.

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國現代牧業控股有限公司(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年8月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01117 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the raw milk price continues to decline, and the industry is expected to enter a supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, benefiting the leading company in the livestock industry due to its cost advantages and potential for performance elasticity [1][2] - The company is projected to have revenues of 13.35 billion, 14.60 billion, and 16.35 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively, and a net profit of -580 million, 438 million, and 1.58 billion yuan [1] - The company holds a 7% market share in the livestock industry in 2024, with a significant portion of raw milk sourced from its own production, which is over 90% [2] Group 2 - The company has implemented a cost-leading strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes grass planting, feed processing, and dairy farming, aiming to reduce procurement costs through economies of scale [3] - The company has seen a 13.6% increase in sales volume to 2.89 million tons in 2024, with a projected 10% increase in sales volume for the first half of 2025 due to structural optimization of the cattle herd [2] - The company has successfully reduced the cost of milk sales by nearly 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, alongside a continuous decline in financing costs due to debt structure optimization [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Modern Dairy, with a target price of HKD 1.59 per share, corresponding to a 1.09 times P/B ratio for 2025 [7][11][17]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, benefiting from a cyclical recovery and demonstrating strong earnings elasticity. The report anticipates a rebound in raw milk prices and a return to supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025 [3][11][53]. - The company has implemented a cost leadership strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes feed production, dairy farming, and processing, aiming to reduce procurement costs and enhance operational efficiency [11][20][45]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 133.50 billion, RMB 145.99 billion, and RMB 163.47 billion, reflecting growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be -RMB 5.80 billion, RMB 4.38 billion, and RMB 15.84 billion, with EPS of -0.07, 0.06, and 0.20 yuan per share [5][16][19]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.0% in 2024 to 33.6% by 2027, driven by cost reductions and increased milk prices [5][19]. Industry Position - Modern Dairy holds a 7% market share in the dairy industry as of 2024, with a significant portion of its raw milk sales being secured by its major shareholder, Mengniu Dairy, which has consistently purchased over 90% of the company's raw milk [11][32][20]. - The company has expanded its operations through acquisitions and innovative leasing models, allowing for low-cost expansion and increased production capacity [20][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has focused on optimizing its herd structure, increasing the proportion of productive cows, and enhancing milk yield through digital management systems. The average milk yield per cow is expected to exceed 13 tons in the first half of 2025 [60][11]. - Cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in feed costs, with the cost per kilogram of milk dropping by 16.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.95 in 2024 [45][46].

农业农村部办公厅发布《关于加快奶业纾困提升奶业高质量发展水平的通知》提出，各地要落实白名单 制度，及时向金融机构推送生产经营水平高、信用良好的奶牛养殖场名单，"点对点"做好金融政策对 接。 推动银行机构持续创新"青贮贷"等金融产品，保障养殖场青贮饲料收储资金需求。要将符合条件的项目 纳入农业农村基础设施融资项目库储备，探索采取贴息补助的办法给予支持。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，7月28日国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，"国补"正式进入生育领域，食饮 訾猛团队测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。考虑 到适龄人口发展趋势，国泰海通预计未来出生人口数将有所减少，单年度补贴额度也将随之降低，但仍 为一笔可观的财政支出。对乳制品行业而言，全国层面的育儿补贴有望拉动相关乳品消费，尤其是奶粉 等，有助于提振板块景气度，加速供需缺口收敛。 乳品行业涉及相关港股： 澳优（01717）、H&H国际控股(01112)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、现代牧业(01117)、中国飞鹤(06186)、优然 牧业(09858)、原生态牧业(01431)等。 加强银政企户精准有效对接，引导金融机构通过展期、续 ...

农业农村部办公厅发布《关于加快奶业纾困提升奶业高质量发展水平的通知》提出，各地要落实白名单 制度，及时向金融机构推送生产经营水平高、信用良好的奶牛养殖场名单，"点对点"做好金融政策对 接。 推动银行机构持续创新"青贮贷"等金融产品，保障养殖场青贮饲料收储资金需求。要将符合条件的项目 纳入农业农村基础设施融资项目库储备，探索采取贴息补助的办法给予支持。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，7月28日国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，"国补"正式进入生育领域，食饮 訾猛团队测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。考虑 到适龄人口发展趋势，国泰海通预计未来出生人口数将有所减少，单年度补贴额度也将随之降低，但仍 为一笔可观的财政支出。对乳制品行业而言，全国层面的育儿补贴有望拉动相关乳品消费，尤其是奶粉 等，有助于提振板块景气度，加速供需缺口收敛。 乳品行业涉及相关港股： 澳优（01717）、H&H国际控股(01112)、蒙牛乳业(02319)、现代牧业(01117)、中国飞鹤(06186)、优然 牧业(09858)、原生态牧业(01431)等。 加强银政企户精准有效对接，引导金融机构通过展期、续 ...