COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy - **Ticker**: 1138.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$67.7 billion / $8.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$88.5 billion / $11.3 billion - **Current Price**: HK$14.20 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$16.00 (Upside: 12.7%) [1][5] Industry Insights - **Tanker Market Dynamics**: The tanker market is expected to experience tighter supply due to the exit or low utilization of shadow or sanctioned capacity, which will drive freight rates higher than market expectations [1] - **Shadow Fleet Impact**: Approximately 18% of current total tanker capacity is classified as shadow or sanctioned fleet, which affects the overall supply-demand balance in the tanker market [2][17] - **Geopolitical Factors**: The analysis suggests that if sanctions on oil from Russia or Iran were lifted, it could lead to a significant exit of shadow fleet capacity, as unsanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleet for transportation [1][19] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth for COSCO Shipping Energy is as follows: - 2024: Rmb 23,130.7 million - 2025: Rmb 25,363.1 million - 2026: Rmb 30,481.0 million - 2027: Rmb 30,653.4 million [5][15] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected EBITDA growth rates are: - 2024: Rmb 8,575.0 million - 2025: Rmb 9,757.3 million - 2026: Rmb 12,922.7 million - 2027: Rmb 13,024.5 million [5][15] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: Rmb 0.80 - 2025: Rmb 0.97 - 2026: Rmb 1.34 - 2027: Rmb 1.34 [5][15] Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 9.6 - 2025: 13.0 - 2026: 9.4 - 2027: 9.4 [11] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024: 0.9 - 2025: 1.4 - 2026: 1.2 - 2027: 1.2 [11] - **Dividend Yield**: - 2024: 5.6% - 2025: 3.7% - 2026: 5.3% - 2027: 5.3% [11] Strategic Outlook - **Freight Rate Sensitivity**: The company is expected to benefit from higher freight rates due to the transition of Venezuelan oil transportation from shadow fleet to mainstream fleet [1][17] - **Scenario Analysis**: - Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil could lead to a potential upside of 63% to the share price - Lifting sanctions on Russian oil could result in a 27% to 33% upside - A scenario where both sanctions are lifted could lead to a 94% to 102% upside [18] - **Downside Risks**: A potential downside of 10% to 6% exists if disruptions in the Red Sea are resolved, which could reduce shipping demand by 2% [18] Conclusion - COSCO Shipping Energy is positioned to capitalize on favorable market conditions driven by geopolitical factors and a tightening supply of tanker capacity. The financial outlook shows promising growth in revenue and earnings, supported by strategic shifts in oil transportation dynamics. The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on the potential for significant upside in share price under various scenarios.

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将中远海能(01138)2026及2027年的净利润预测分别上调11%与 12%，以反映运费更高，并升中远海能港股目标价48%至16港元，升中远海能(600026.SH)A股目标价 10%至18元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 该行分析显示，在极端情境下，若俄罗斯或伊朗石油的制裁完全解除，可能会进一步加速影子船队运力 的退出，因为不受制裁的石油不再需要影子船队进行运输。同时，影子船队亦不太可能回归主流或合规 船队，因该些船只一般船龄都过高，后续维护需求增加以及监管风险上升，理应被拆解。根据Clarksons 与标普全球的数据，以载重吨位计算，目前油轮总运力中有18%及16%分别属于影子船队及受制裁船 队。 该信息由智通财经网提供 高盛认为国际运价仍有进一步上行空间，因受影子船队、受制裁船队相继退出市场或利用率偏低影响， 将使有效运力低于市场预期。预期中远海能将成为此轮运价上行的受益者，并假设委内瑞拉的石油运输 将由影子船队转向主流船队。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能（600026）(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东亚银 行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东 亚银行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - A recent trade agreement between the US and India is expected to boost compliance oil transportation demand, as India will cease purchasing Russian oil and increase imports from the US [4] - Following the imposition of punitive tariffs by the US, India's imports of Russian oil have decreased significantly, with a total of 26 million tons imported from September 2025 to January 2026, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year decline [4] - The cessation of Russian oil imports by India is anticipated to further support compliance market freight rates, with potential increases in demand for oil from the Americas [4] - The current high demand in the foreign trade oil transportation sector presents an opportunity for oil transport companies to release performance potential, with expectations of rising freight rates due to upstream expansion and geopolitical events [4] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The shipping and port sector has shown a performance of -8% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2] Analyst Information - The report is authored by analyst Zhu Yubo, with contact information provided for further inquiries [3] Related Reports - The report references previous analyses on geopolitical events and oil transportation market opportunities [3]

Group 1 - As of February 4, 100 stocks reached a 52-week high, with METROPOLIS CAP (08621), Asia Backup (08290), and Wenling Tooling (01379) leading the high rate at 74.55%, 63.89%, and 57.48% respectively [1] - METROPOLIS CAP closed at 0.048 with a peak of 0.096, while Asia Backup closed at 0.032 with a peak of 0.059, and Wenling Tooling closed at 3.400 with a peak of 6.000 [1] - Other notable stocks that reached new highs include Asia Internet Technology (00679) at 46.23% and Asia Pacific Financial Investment (08193) at 25.45% [1] Group 2 - The 52-week low rankings show that Gaodi Co. (01676) had the largest decline at -45.71%, followed by Xixiang Group (02473) at -23.42% and Jianfa Xingsheng (00731) at -21.51% [3] - Gaodi Co. closed at 0.243 with a low of 0.171, while Xixiang Group closed at 2.370 with a low of 2.060, and Jianfa Xingsheng closed at 0.137 with a low of 0.135 [3] - Other significant declines include Huaxia SOL-R (83460) at -14.34% and Huaxia SOL-U (09460) at -13.97% [3]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查App显示，近日，中远海能（600026）发生工商变更，注册资本由约47.7亿 元增至约54.7亿元。 ...

2月4日， 涨超7%，今年以来累计涨超58%，截至发稿，涨7.54%，报15.22港元，成交额2.24亿港元。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据 了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通 道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/ 天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。 国泰海通认为，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于 预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 编辑/KOKO ...

南方财经2月4日电，截至发稿，中远海能涨8.24%、中国船舶租赁(03877.HK)涨3.21%、中远海发 (02866.HK)涨1.83%。财通证券发布研报称，在当前外贸原油运输行业高景气背景下，油运公司迎来一 轮业绩释放机遇。且中期来看，伴随上游扩产&地缘事件&制裁收紧利好供需，运价中枢有望保持上 涨，从而给予油运企业更大的业绩弹性空间。 ...

截至发稿，中远海能(01138.HK)涨7.46%、中国船舶租赁(03877.HK)涨3.21%、海翔海运(02510.HK)涨 1.69%。 ...