Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.58% to close at 27,183.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.62% to 5,451.03 points, and the National Enterprises Index climbed by 0.81% to 9,242.75 points [1] - The index opened at 27,202.96 points, initially rising before retreating, and ultimately gained 155.99 points with a total turnover exceeding 234 billion HKD [1] - There were 1,344 advancing stocks, 923 declining stocks, and 896 stocks closing flat by midday [1] - The net inflow for the southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) was 84.7 million HKD [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced gains, including chips, optical communications, biomedicine, new energy vehicles, oil and gas, banking, aviation, and port transportation [1] - Mixed performance was noted in new consumption, non-ferrous metals, and brokerage sectors, while gold, technology, real estate, and electricity sectors mostly declined [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Pop Mart rising by 4.90%, Longi Green Energy increasing by 8.88%, Xiaomi Group up by 1.08%, and SMIC gaining 1.71% [1] - China Ping An rose by 0.62%, AIA fell by 0.52%, Zijin Mining increased by 2.52%, and Tianzuo Zhixin surged by 12.40% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy rose by 5.49%, Zhihui gained 14.81%, and Rongchang Biotech increased by 3.64% [1] - HSBC Holdings rose by 0.72%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.77%, and China Petroleum gained 1.64% [1] Top Traded Stocks - Tencent Holdings saw a decline of 1.61% with a turnover exceeding 16.1 billion HKD; Alibaba rose by 1.65% with a turnover over 9.3 billion HKD; Meituan fell by 2.47% with a turnover of 6.6 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the AH premium rates of various companies, indicating significant discrepancies between their H-shares and A-shares, with some companies showing extremely high premiums while others exhibit negative premiums [1]. Group 1: Top AH Premium Rates - Northeast Electric (00042) has the highest AH premium rate at 831.03%, with H-share priced at 0.290 HKD and A-share at 2.25 CNY [1]. - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) follows with a premium rate of 296.70%, H-share at 0.910 HKD and A-share at 3.01 CNY [1]. - Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric (00187) ranks third with a premium of 285.05%, H-share at 4.280 HKD and A-share at 13.76 CNY [1]. Group 2: Lowest AH Premium Rates - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) has the lowest AH premium rate at -13.27%, with H-share priced at 511.000 HKD and A-share at 370 CNY [1]. - China Merchants Bank (03968) shows a premium of -4.06%, H-share at 49.300 HKD and A-share at 39.49 CNY [1]. - WuXi AppTec (02359) has a premium of -2.14%, with H-share at 120.800 HKD and A-share at 98.7 CNY [1]. Group 3: Top Deviation Values - Jinju Group (02009) has the highest deviation value at 24.42%, with a premium of 212.05% [1]. - Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric (00187) has a deviation value of 21.92%, with a premium of 285.05% [1]. - Longpan Technology (02465) ranks third with a deviation value of 19.68%, and a premium of 101.01% [1]. Group 4: Lowest Deviation Values - JunDa Co., Ltd. (02865) has the lowest deviation value at -70.56%, with a premium of 176.15% [2]. - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) follows with a deviation of -45.38%, and a premium of 105.94% [2]. - Chenming Paper (01812) has a deviation of -26.81%, with a premium of 190.80% [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) experienced a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 16.06 per share with a trading volume of HKD 235 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) has seen its stock price increase by over 60% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 5.04% to HKD 16.06, reflecting strong market performance and investor interest [1] Group 1: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy has undergone significant business restructuring, establishing an integrated operational model encompassing oil, gas, chemicals, and storage [1] - The core business of oil transportation has consistently contributed over 80% of the company's revenue for the past decade, with foreign trade crude oil and refined oil transportation being the main profit drivers [1] - As of September 2025, the company's fleet capacity distribution is projected to be 83.2% for oil tankers, 16.5% for LNG carriers, 0.3% for chemical tankers, and 0.1% for LPG carriers [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guotai Junan Securities highlights a two-phase development leading to a "super bull market" in oil transportation. The first phase is characterized by geopolitical conflicts that have restructured global crude oil trade, increasing shipping distances and driving up oil transportation demand for over three years [1] - The second phase is marked by a global increase in crude oil production, further boosting oil transportation demand [1] - Oil transportation rates have surged since September and are expected to remain high, with tanker profits projected to reach a ten-year high in Q4 2025 and for the entire year [1] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the oil transportation market will continue to exceed expectations, with potential benefits from falling oil prices [1]

消息面上，财通证券指出，中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体化链 式经营新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成品油 运输业务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。截至2025年9月，统一换算载重吨口 径下，油轮、LNG船、化学品船、LPG船运力分别占比83.2%、16.5%、0.3%、0.1%。 国泰海通证券表示，两阶段成就油运"超级牛市"。第一阶段：地缘冲突驱动全球原油贸易重构，俄 欧"舍近求远"拉长航距，驱动油运景气跨年度上行已超三年，且产能利用率升至阈值。第二阶段开启： 全球原油开启增产，驱动油运需求继续增长。该行认为，油运运价自9月飙升并维持高位，油轮2025年 Q4与全年盈利将创十年新高。预计2026年油运景气持续将超预期，且具油价下跌期权。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)再涨超5%，年初至今股价累涨超六成。截至发稿，涨5.04%，报 16.06港元，成交额2.35亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a slight increase of 0.07% at 1.453 yuan [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, which rose by 0.37%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which increased by 0.59%, and Sinopec, which saw a rise of 0.15% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 44.70% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.93% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Other notable stock performances within the ETF include Jereh Group, which fell by 0.34%, and China Merchants Energy, which decreased by 0.25%, while Guanghui Energy remained unchanged [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a diverse range of stock movements among its holdings [1]

Summary of the Transportation and Logistics Industry Research Report Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Transportation and Logistics, specifically the shipping sector - **Key Metrics**: - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rate at $102,897/day, down 11.0% week-over-week, up 213.2% year-over-year - MR (Medium Range) freight rate at $25,025/day, down 9.2% week-over-week, up 52.4% year-over-year - SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for routes to the US West Coast, Europe, and Southeast Asia down 5.0%, 4.8%, and 3.7% respectively week-over-week - BDI (Baltic Dry Index) up 14.9% week-over-week, BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) up 19.0%, BSI (Baltic Supramax Index) up 5.8% [4][5][6] Core Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping cycle is expected to remain "higher for longer" due to structural changes in demand from older vessels to compliant fleets following tightened sanctions from Europe and the US [5][6] - **Market Concentration**: The VLCC market is traditionally fragmented, with the top 10 companies holding a 44.1% market share. However, recent transactions and long-term charters have led to increased concentration, particularly with new entrants like Sinokor, which has acquired over 30 VLCCs [6] - **Asset Prices**: Second-hand VLCC prices have increased, with 10-year and 15-year-old vessels rising by 11.1% and 16.1% respectively since the beginning of the year [6] - **Charter Rates**: Frontline announced a one-year charter for 7 VLCCs at $76,900/day, exceeding the Clarkson quote of $71,750/day [6] Company Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能-A) with a target price of 13.50 and P/E ratios of 11.1 for 2026E and 19.2 for 2027E - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商南油-A) with a target price of 3.70 and P/E ratios of 10.8 for 2026E and 16.6 for 2027E - Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流-A) with a target price of 13.87 and P/E ratios of 10.6 for 2026E and 9.7 for 2027E - Seaspan Corporation (海丰国际-H) with a target price of 36.00 and P/E ratios of 9.1 for 2026E and 10.3 for 2027E [4][7] Risks - **Geopolitical Risks**: Changes in geopolitical conditions could impact the shipping industry significantly - **Economic Risks**: A substantial slowdown in global economic growth poses a risk to shipping demand [8] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Outlook**: The report maintains its profit forecasts and target prices for covered companies, indicating a positive outlook for the shipping sector [7] - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the shipping market, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and market concentration trends [5][6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil transportation industry, specifically the dynamics surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations and geopolitical tensions affecting freight rates [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The Clarkson VLCC TD3C-TCE index reported a rate of $118,000 per day, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [1][2]. - The Middle East to China route maintained a freight rate of $127,000 per day, showing no change week-on-week, indicating sustained high rates in the market [1][2]. - The completion of cargo bookings for mid-February on the Middle East route has led to a gradual tightening of available shipping capacity as lower-tier capacity is being absorbed [1][2]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has positively influenced market sentiment and freight rates [1][2]. U.S.-Iran Negotiation Insights - As of February 6, the U.S.-Iran negotiations have not reached a consensus, leaving the geopolitical situation complex [2]. - The U.S. has intensified sanctions, with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announcing sanctions against 15 entities and 14 vessels involved in illegal trade of Iranian oil, refined products, and petrochemicals [2]. Geopolitical Factors Impacting Oil Transportation - Two potential scenarios are outlined regarding geopolitical risks: 1. If geopolitical tensions escalate, such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, insurance rates and risk premiums could significantly increase freight rates. Additionally, if Iranian oil exports are hindered, Asian buyers may seek compliant market alternatives, boosting demand in those markets [2]. 2. Conversely, if geopolitical risks ease, similar to the situation with Venezuelan oil transitioning to compliant markets, the potential for sanctions on Iran to be lifted could lead to a clearing of shadow fleets and a shift from black to white oil [2]. Market Outlook - The outlook for the oil transportation market remains positive, with expectations for upward trends in freight rates driven by supply dynamics and amplified by geopolitical factors. Recommendations include investing in companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [2].

Company and Industry Summary Company: 中远海能 (COSCO Shipping Energy) Key Points - **Industry Context**: The company is positioned as a global leader in oil transportation, benefiting from a high level of activity in the foreign trade crude oil transportation sector, which is currently experiencing a favorable market environment [1] - **Performance Outlook**: The company is expected to see a release of performance opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics driven by upstream production expansion, geopolitical events, and tightening sanctions [1] - **Price Trends**: The report anticipates that the central price of freight rates is likely to maintain an upward trend, providing greater performance elasticity for the company [1] - **Initial Coverage Rating**: The company has been given an "Overweight" rating in the initial coverage [1] - **Capacity Structure Analysis**: The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's capacity structure and potential profit elasticity, discussing the future trends in the crude oil transportation industry [1] - **Demand Drivers**: Two major drivers on the demand side are identified, while the supply side is expected to see limited net increases, suggesting a resonance in supply and demand that could support rising freight rates [1] Financial Projections Key Points - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.31 billion, 27.86 billion, and 29.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits attributable to the parent company are forecasted to be 4.68 billion, 6.72 billion, and 7.38 billion yuan for the same years [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 18.7, 13.0, and 11.8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] Risk Factors Key Points - **Demand Risks**: A significant decline in crude oil demand poses a risk to the company's performance [2] - **OPEC+ Production Changes**: The risk that OPEC+ may not increase production as expected or may shift to production cuts [2] - **Sanction Implementation**: The potential for sanctions to not be implemented as anticipated [2] - **Environmental Policies**: Risks associated with the advancement of environmental policies that could impact operations [2] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing war risks and the potential for lock-up shares to be released [2]

财通证券研报指出，中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体化链式经营 新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成品油运输业 务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。外贸油运高景气助力业绩释放，内贸及 LNG运输稳增利润。考虑公司作为全球油运龙头有望迎来业绩释放期，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...