Investment Rating - The investment rating for China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that supply tightness supports freight rates, while long-distance cost increases and tax burdens are dragging down profits [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 18,657.84 million RMB - 2023: 22,090.52 million RMB (growth of 18.40%) - 2024E: 24,414.86 million RMB (growth of 10.52%) - 2025E: 26,663.67 million RMB (growth of 9.21%) - 2026E: 28,742.56 million RMB (growth of 7.80%) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as: - 2022: 1,457.33 million RMB - 2023: 3,350.58 million RMB (growth of 129.29%) - 2024E: 4,603.98 million RMB (growth of 37.41%) - 2025E: 6,009.56 million RMB (growth of 30.53%) - 2026E: 7,134.69 million RMB (growth of 18.72%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: - 2023: 0.70 RMB - 2024E: 0.97 RMB - 2025E: 1.26 RMB - 2026E: 1.50 RMB [2] Financial Ratios - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.74% in 2023 to 14.90% in 2026 [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.64 in 2023 to 8.75 in 2026 [2] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 72,083.61 million RMB in 2023 to 85,411.75 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Total liabilities are expected to remain stable around 34,980.29 million RMB in 2023, decreasing slightly to 33,558.42 million RMB by 2026 [3] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 8,822.16 million RMB in 2023 to 11,029.02 million RMB in 2026 [3] - Net cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching 3,015.40 million RMB [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.14 billion RMB for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.42 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.05% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.49 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.81 billion RMB, down 10.9% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in gross profit from foreign trade oil transportation was offset by growth in domestic trade and LNG profits [2]. - The supply-demand fundamentals in the oil transportation industry are expected to remain healthy, supporting the industry's outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company’s tanker capacity input was 5.9 billion ton-days, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year, while the transportation volume (excluding time charter) was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average daily earnings for VLCC TD3C route (Middle East to China) were approximately 36,846 USD/day, up 4.2% year-on-year, and for LR2 TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) were approximately 47,115 USD/day, up 44.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit from the tanker segment was 4.28 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, with foreign trade oil transportation contributing 3.15 billion RMB (down 9.8%) and domestic oil transportation contributing 1.13 billion RMB (up 1.5%) [2]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 23.98%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the addition of new VLCC capacity and rising charter rates [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.4 billion RMB, 6.67 billion RMB, and 7.61 billion RMB, respectively [3]. Market Outlook - According to Clarkson's forecast, the demand for crude oil ton-miles is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, and the demand for refined oil ton-miles is expected to grow by 7.9% year-on-year [2]. - The supply growth rate for crude oil tankers is projected at 0.3% in 2024, with a continued low growth trend for VLCC capacity [2].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中远海能（600026）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） Q3 扣非净利 7.3 亿，同比-19%，淡季需求偏 弱影响业绩表现，继续看好油运周期上行 公司公告 2024 年三季报： 1）业绩表现：2024 年前三季度营收 171 亿，同比+3.7%；归母净利润 34.2 亿， 同比-8.0%；扣非归母净利润 33.5 亿，同比+0.77%。Q3 营收 54.9 亿，同比 +10.8%；归母净利润 8.1 亿，同比-10.9%；扣非归母净利润 7.3 亿，同比-19%。 2）分业务来看：2024 年前三季度外贸油运业务实现毛利 31.5 亿，同比-9.8%； 内贸油运业务实现毛利 11.3 亿，同比+1.5%；LNG 业务贡献归母净利 6.8 亿， 同比+10.5%。2024Q3 外贸油运业务实现毛利 6.1 亿，同比-14.4%；内贸油运 业务实现毛利 4.2 亿，同比+1.9%；LNG 业务贡献归母净利 2.8 亿，同比+30.8%。 3）运营数据：2024 年前三季度外贸油品运输量（不含期租，下同）6484 万吨， 同比+4.9%；运输周转量 4016 亿吨海里，同比+11.7 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 ——中远海能 2024 年三季报点评 Q3 业绩符合预期，放低旺季逆向布局 中远海能(600026) [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫 ( 分析师 ) | 尹嘉骐 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976758 | 021-38038322 | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030006 | S0880524030004 | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 地缘油价导致油运市场经历压力测试，公司业绩同比下降符合预期。继续看 好未来数年油运供需向好，原油增产将助力油运需求增长。建议放低旺季逆向布局。 投资要点： 公 司 更 新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in Q3 performance due to pressure on oil shipping rates, but the LNG business is expected to accelerate its development [2][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in oil shipping demand as macroeconomic conditions improve and OPEC+ enters a production increase cycle in 2025 [8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.05% [3] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.50%, with a net profit of 808 million yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year and down 41.03% quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated a gross profit of 3.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with Q3 gross profit at 620 million yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year and down 52.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average TCE for the TD3C route was $36,846 per day, up 4.24% year-on-year, while the average TCE for the TC1 route was $47,115 per day, up 44.9% year-on-year [4] LNG Business Development - The company is actively introducing new clean energy capacity and accelerating the installation of desulfurization towers, with 8 new ship orders in hand [6] - As of June 30, 2024, the company has invested in 85 LNG vessels, with 45 in operation and 40 under construction, contributing a net profit of 680 million yuan from LNG transportation, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7] Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in oil shipping demand due to a mismatch between supply and demand, with a projected increase in oil shipping rates as the industry recovers [8] - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.587 billion yuan, 5.553 billion yuan, and 6.766 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.16, and 1.42 yuan per share [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][10]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 810 million RMB for Q3 2024, which is a decline of 10.9% quarter-on-quarter and 41.0% year-on-year, falling short of expectations [3]. - The overall net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.42 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [3]. - The report anticipates continued weak demand in the international oil transportation market, with freight rates expected to remain flat in Q4 [3]. - In the medium to long term, the supply of oil tankers is expected to tighten gradually from 2025 to 2026, which may lead to a recovery in freight rates as demand improves [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Business - The international crude oil transportation business generated a gross profit of 1.42 billion RMB in the first three quarters, down 29.9% year-on-year. Q3 gross profit was 140 million RMB, a significant decline of 56.9% quarter-on-quarter and 78.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling freight rates [4]. - China's crude oil imports decreased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to September, with a 3.7% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCC from the Middle East to China (TD3C) in Q3 fell by 10.1% quarter-on-quarter and 37.9% year-on-year [4]. Product Oil Transportation Business - The international product oil transportation business achieved a gross profit of 820 million RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 23.8% year-on-year. However, Q3 gross profit was 170 million RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46.6% [5]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BCTI) average for Q3 decreased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and 26.0% year-on-year [5]. Domestic Oil Transportation and LNG Business - The domestic oil transportation market remains stable, with a gross profit of 1.13 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year. Q3 gross profit was 410 million RMB, up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The LNG business reported a net profit of 680 million RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, attributed to fleet expansion [6]. Profit Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 23%, 21%, and 15% respectively, to 4.30 billion RMB, 5.38 billion RMB, and 6.11 billion RMB [7]. - The target price has been adjusted downwards by 12% and 9% to 9.20 HKD and 16.00 RMB respectively, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

中远海能（600026.SH） 优于大市 外贸油运需求疲软导致 Q3 业绩承压，继续看好刚性供给下运价弹性 中远海能发布 2024 年三季报，业绩表现偏弱。中远海能 2024 年前 3 季度实 现收入 171.44 亿元，同比+3.68%；归母净利润 34.15 亿元，同比-8.05%； 扣非归母净利润 33.49 亿元，同比+0.77%。其中，第三季度，海能实现营业 收入54.93 亿元，同比增长10.80%；归母净利润8.08 亿元，同比下滑 10.93%； 扣非归母净利润 7.32 亿元，同比下滑 19.00%。此外，公司三季度处置一艘 19 年船龄的 VLCC"新金洋"轮，贡献 0.76 亿元非经常损益。 6-8 月外贸油运景气度较低。中远海能 24Q3 实现单季度外贸油运业务收入 33.67 亿元，同比+14%，毛利 6.13 亿元，同比-14%，毛利率 18%，同比下降 3.8 pct。主要来自于原油运价的拖累。据克拉克森运价显示，2024 年 6 月 -8 月 VLCC 平均运价为 30317 美元/天，环比 2 季度业绩期 3-5 月的平均运价 48769 美元/天下滑 38%，主要受到 OP ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 3.415 billion yuan, down 8.05% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 3.349 billion yuan, up 0.77% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to falling freight rates for oil tankers, with the average freight rate for VLCCs dropping by 38% from the previous quarter [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, which is approximately 40.3% of the net profit for the first half of 2024 [3] - The major shareholder, China Ocean Shipping Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by no less than 679 million yuan and no more than 1.358 billion yuan, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3] - The supply side is expected to continue contracting, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [3] - The profit forecast has been revised downwards due to weaker-than-expected demand, with net profit estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 4.5 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's net profit was 808 million yuan, down 41.03% quarter-on-quarter and down 10.93% year-on-year [3] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.547 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.5% [4] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 29.4% in 2024, increasing to 35.8% by 2026 [4] Market Conditions - The average freight rate for VLCCs in Q3 2024 was approximately 35,000-36,000 USD/day, slightly above the market average [3] - The global order book represents 8% of the current fleet, indicating limited new capacity coming online [3] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, reflecting a commitment to return value to shareholders [3] - The major shareholder's planned increase in stake is seen as a positive signal for the market [3]

Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending September 30, 2024, the company's operating revenue was CNY 5,492,927,694.45, representing a 10.76% increase compared to CNY 4,959,218,430.74 in the same period last year[3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was CNY 808,460,815.54, a decrease of 10.93% from CNY 907,629,044.17 year-on-year[3]. - The basic earnings per share for the quarter was CNY 0.1695, down 10.93% from CNY 0.1903 in the previous year[3]. - For the year-to-date period, the total operating revenue reached CNY 17,143,704,565.04, an increase of 3.68% from CNY 16,534,602,106.32 in the same period last year[4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year-to-date period was CNY 3,415,078,828.91, reflecting an 8.05% decrease from CNY 3,713,864,739.82 year-on-year[4]. - The weighted average return on net assets for the quarter was 2.2015%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points compared to 2.6318% in the same period last year[3]. - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company for the period from January to September is approximately CNY 3.21 billion, a decrease from CNY 3.96 billion in the same period last year, representing a decline of about 18.8%[16]. - Basic earnings per share for the period is CNY 0.7158, a decrease from CNY 0.7785 in the same period last year, representing a decline of approximately 8.5%[16]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets as of the end of the reporting period were CNY 75,187,427,894.07, a 4.31% increase from CNY 72,083,612,271.55 at the end of the previous year[4]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company was CNY 35,977,100,890.07, an increase of 4.61% from CNY 34,391,504,390.45 at the end of the previous year[4]. - The total liabilities of the company were RMB 36,367,355,176.63, compared to RMB 34,980,288,739.23, indicating an increase of approximately 3.96%[14]. - Current assets totaled RMB 8,777,961,360.73, down from RMB 9,469,189,919.78, representing a decline of approximately 7.31%[14]. - Long-term equity investments increased to RMB 12,307,072,264.82 from RMB 10,081,911,917.05, marking a growth of about 21.93%[14]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was CNY 5,762,047,703.06, down 11.83% from CNY 6,535,299,505.96 in the previous year[4]. - The net cash flow generated from operating activities for the period is CNY 5.76 billion, down from CNY 6.54 billion year-on-year, indicating a decrease of approximately 11.8%[17]. - The cash inflow from operating activities totaled CNY 18.09 billion, compared to CNY 17.28 billion in the previous year, reflecting an increase of about 4.7%[17]. - The net cash flow from investing activities is negative at CNY -5.08 billion, compared to a negative CNY -0.99 billion in the same period last year, indicating a significant increase in cash outflow[18]. - The net cash flow from financing activities is negative at CNY -1.99 billion, compared to a negative CNY -3.96 billion in the same period last year, showing an improvement in cash flow[18]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 90,286,942.00, a significant increase from RMB 37,701,502.03, reflecting a growth of about 139.73%[14]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amount to CNY 4.32 billion, down from CNY 5.93 billion at the end of the previous year, indicating a decrease of about 27.5%[18]. Operational Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2024, the average daily earnings for VLCC on the Middle East to China route (TD3C) were approximately $36,846, an increase of about 4.2% year-on-year[11]. - The average daily earnings for LR2 on the Middle East to Japan route (TC1) were approximately $47,115, reflecting a significant increase of 44.9% year-on-year[11]. - The group achieved an operating revenue of RMB 15.5 billion in the oil tanker segment for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%[12]. - The total oil transportation capacity for the group was 589,984 million tons per day, up 7.8% year-on-year[12]. - The group reported a gross profit margin of 27.6% for the oil tanker segment, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year[12]. - The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of RMB 680 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%[12]. - The transportation volume (excluding time charter) was 12,617 million tons, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year[12]. - The transportation turnover (excluding time charter) was 4,325 billion ton-miles, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year[12]. Expenses - Total operating costs amounted to RMB 13,777,350,397.15, up from RMB 12,962,397,183.75, indicating an increase of about 6.27%[15]. - Research and development expenses for the period were RMB 11,923,109.92, down from RMB 16,711,414.30, indicating a decrease of approximately 28.55%[15]. - The company reported a decrease in interest expenses to RMB 1,028,130,807.34 from RMB 1,068,443,859.90, reflecting a reduction of about 3.77%[15]. - The company paid CNY 8.50 billion for purchases of goods and services, which is an increase from CNY 7.28 billion year-on-year, indicating a rise of about 16.7%[17].

Financial Performance - Operating revenue for the third quarter reached ¥5,492,927,694.45, an increase of 10.76% year-on-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥808,460,815.54, a decrease of 10.93% compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was ¥732,086,002.56, down 19.00% year-on-year[2] - Basic earnings per share decreased to ¥0.1695, a decline of 10.93% from the previous year[2] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 17,143,704,565.04, an increase from CNY 16,534,602,106.32 in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of approximately 3.7%[15] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 3,650,736,662.24, down from CNY 4,008,126,553.86 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 8.9%[16] - Total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders of the parent company was CNY 3,206,315,838.03 for the first three quarters of 2024, compared to CNY 3,964,188,329.15 in 2023, a decrease of approximately 19.1%[16] - The total comprehensive income for the third quarter was CNY 3,471,182,793.44, compared to CNY 4,354,481,143.65 in the same quarter last year, reflecting a decline of 20.2%[17] - Basic earnings per share for the third quarter were CNY 0.7158, down from CNY 0.7785 in the same period last year[17] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to ¥75,187,427,894.07, reflecting a growth of 4.31% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - The total assets as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 were CNY 75,187,427,894.07, an increase from CNY 72,083,612,271.55 at the end of 2023, representing a growth of about 2.9%[14] - The company's cash and cash equivalents were reported at RMB 4.32 billion, down from RMB 5.63 billion at the end of 2023[11] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the third quarter of 2024 were CNY 5,000,000,000, compared to CNY 4,500,000,000 at the end of 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 11.1%[14] - The total liabilities of the company included short-term borrowings of RMB 2.2 billion, a decrease from RMB 2.95 billion at the end of 2023[12] - The total liabilities as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 amounted to CNY 36,367,355,176.63, an increase from CNY 34,980,288,739.23 at the end of 2023, representing a growth of about 3.9%[14] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 52,448[6] - The largest shareholder, China Shipping Group Co., Ltd., held 1,536,924,595 shares, representing 32.22% of the total[6] Operational Metrics - In the first three quarters of 2024, the average daily earnings for VLCC TD3C route (Middle East to China) were approximately $36,846, an increase of about 4.2% year-on-year[10] - The average daily earnings for LR2 TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) reached approximately $47,115, reflecting a significant increase of 44.9% compared to the same period last year[10] - The group's oil tanker capacity input was 589,984 million ton-days, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.8%[10] - The total revenue from the oil tanker segment was RMB 15.5 billion, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while operating costs rose by 6.5% to RMB 11.22 billion[10] - The gross profit margin for the oil tanker segment was 27.6%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year[10] - The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of RMB 680 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.5%[10] Cash Flow - Operating cash inflow for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 18,089,151,149.59, an increase of 4.7% from CNY 17,275,866,857.88 in the previous year[18] - Net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 5,762,047,703.06, down 11.8% from CNY 6,535,299,505.96 in the same period last year[19] - Net cash flow from investing activities was -CNY 5,078,038,853.78, compared to -CNY 986,377,253.89 in the previous year, indicating increased investment outflows[19] - Net cash flow from financing activities was -CNY 1,995,994,588.09, a significant improvement from -CNY 3,958,686,367.18 in the same period last year[19] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were CNY 11,923,109.92, a decrease from CNY 16,711,414.30 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a decline of about 28.6%[15] Future Plans - The company plans to expand its market presence and invest in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and service offerings in the upcoming quarters[16]