Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 maintains a target price of HKD 9.4 for China Biologic Products (01177) and a "Buy" rating based on a DCF model, projecting revenue growth rates of 19.1% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 10.6% in 2027 [1] Revenue and Profit Projections - The firm expects adjusted net profit growth rates of 81.3% in 2025 and 11.3% in 2027, with a significant decline of 30% anticipated in 2026 [1] - Potential contributions from external licensing to revenue and profit have not been considered in these projections [1] Clinical Development Insights - Recent Phase II clinical results for the PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 indicate that it can rapidly improve lung function and symptoms in patients [1] - The firm believes TQC3721 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug and has significant external licensing potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 maintains a target price of HKD 9.4 for China Biologic Products (01177) and a "Buy" rating based on a DCF model, projecting revenue growth rates of 19.1% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 10.6% in 2027 [1] Revenue and Profit Projections - The firm expects adjusted net profit growth rates of 81.3% in 2025 and 11.3% in 2027, with a significant decline of 30% anticipated in 2026 [1] - Potential contributions from external licensing to revenue and profit have not been considered in these projections [1] Clinical Development Insights - China Biologic Products recently announced Phase II clinical results for its PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721, which demonstrated rapid improvement in patients' lung function and symptoms [1] - The firm believes TQC3721 has the potential to become a blockbuster drug and has significant external licensing potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to FIC/BIC innovation, supported by engineer dividends, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, indicating a qualitative improvement as it enters the 2.0 era [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from policy reforms in payment systems, enhancing the profitability of innovative drug companies as they commercialize domestic products [2] - The upcoming ESMO conference in mid-October is anticipated to provide new investment opportunities through the release of relevant clinical data and business development (BD) activities [2] Group 2: Investment Climate - The investment landscape has improved since early this year, with a notable reversal in the financing trend for the innovative drug industry, particularly in the A/H market [3] - The recovery of IPO projects and financing activities in the secondary market is expected to positively impact investment data in Q3, benefiting domestic CROs and upstream research sectors [3] Group 3: Policy Support - Continuous advancement of commercial medical insurance policies since 2025 is likely to accelerate payment system reforms, easing supply-demand conflicts and supporting domestic innovation [4] - Fiscal policy enhancements are expected to increase market interest in domestic medical equipment stocks [4] Group 4: Target Companies - A-share targets include: BeiGene (688235.SH), Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH), Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ), WuXi AppTec (603259.SH), Tigermed (300347.SZ), New Industry (300832.SZ), BGI Genomics (688114.SH), Huatai Medical (688617.SH), and Dian Diagnostics (300244.SZ) [5] - H-share targets include: Kelun Biotech (06990), CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093), China Biologic Products (01177), CanSino Biologics (09926), WuXi Biologics (02269), Junshi Biosciences (01877), and Zai Lab (09688) [5]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (601727) surged by 15.72%, hitting the upper limit in A-shares, driven by recent positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as local supply chain integration accelerates, with domestic foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose by 11%, as the company is a leading copper smelter in China, with First Quantum's copper mine expected to resume production [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) increased by 8%, following a significant rise in cobalt prices, which surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls from the Congo [1] Group 2 - Hang Seng Bank (00011) saw a 26% increase, following HSBC's recommendation for its privatization [2] - Solar energy stocks experienced gains, with upstream prices rising more than downstream prices in September; New Special Energy (01799) rose 4.52%, Flat Glass (601865) increased by 7.67%, and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) gained 3.73% [2] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress; China Railway (601390) rose 9%, China Metallurgical Group (601618) increased by 6%, and CRRC Corporation (601766) gained 4.17% [2] - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the launch of Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market; H shares increased by 10.73% [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, as it made a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with notable declines in stocks such as Innovent Biologics (09969) down over 9%, I-Mab (01801) down over 6%, and China Biologic Products (01177) down over 6% [3] Group 4 - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its year-to-date high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (02727) surged by 15.72%, with its A-shares hitting the daily limit, driven by positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as domestic supply chain localization accelerates, with local foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 11%, being a leading copper smelting company in China, with a potential resumption of production at a copper mine owned by First Quantum [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 8%, as cobalt prices surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) jumped 26% following HSBC's recommendation to privatize the bank [1] - Solar stocks saw gains in early trading, with prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continuing to rise in September, particularly in upstream sectors [1] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" railway development planning [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the overseas debut of its Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, making a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with several constituent stocks like Innovent Biologics (09969) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177) experiencing declines of over 6% [3] - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its yearly high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.22% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector faced significant losses, with notable declines in specific companies [1] - Nocera Healthcare and SiHuan Pharmaceutical both dropped over 8% [1] - China Biologic Products and Hansoh Pharmaceutical saw declines exceeding 4% [1]

每经AI快讯，10月9日，港股中国生物制药跌超5%，报8.12港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration has announced the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, which will take place on October 21, covering 55 varieties and 162 specifications, including key areas such as antiviral and kidney disease treatment drugs [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Procurement Policy - The 11th batch of centralized procurement aims to stabilize clinical practices, ensure quality, prevent collusion, and avoid excessive competition [1]. - The new procurement rules will optimize price control mechanisms to prevent companies from underbidding, which previously led to unsustainable low prices [1][4]. - The focus on high-value consumables and medical devices is expected to benefit companies with strong cost advantages and product quality, particularly in major categories like cardiovascular and anti-infection drugs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The centralized procurement policy presents both opportunities and challenges for pharmaceutical companies, prompting some generic drug firms to shift towards a combination of generics and innovation [2][5]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the procurement sector is expected to primarily benefit high-value consumables, which have been adversely affected by previous procurement rounds [2][4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, as some innovative drug stocks are currently overvalued following previous market enthusiasm [3][9]. - The ongoing improvement of procurement policies is seen as a catalyst for the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry, favoring large innovative drug companies with strong R&D capabilities [5][9]. Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - Companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Fosun Pharma are highlighted for their strong R&D pipelines and potential for growth, with Kelun having over 30 projects focused on oncology [6][7]. - Fosun Pharma has made significant progress in its innovative transformation, with multiple products showing promising clinical trial results [6][8]. - China National Pharmaceutical Group is expected to have nearly 20 innovative products approved in the next three years, with several projected to exceed sales of 2 billion RMB [8].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國生物製藥有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01177 | 說明 | - | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.025 | HKD | | 750,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.025 | HKD | | 750,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has initiated coverage on China Biologic Products (01177) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 10, forecasting earnings per share of RMB 0.293, RMB 0.259, and RMB 0.283 for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The investment sentiment in the healthcare sector in mainland China has significantly rebounded over the past year, positioning China Biologic Products favorably within this trend [1] - The company is recognized as one of the largest and best-developed pharmaceutical enterprises in China, with strong capabilities in scale, financing, and commercial infrastructure [1] Group 2: Company Strategy and Development - The company has increased its investment in business development (BD) to rapidly expand its portfolio of innovative drugs [1] - There is potential for external licensing in the short term, with several key catalysts and possible product approvals on the horizon that could add new value to its innovative pipeline [1] - Important clinical data is expected to be released soon, which is likely to accelerate the progress of innovative research and development [1]