以下文章来源于格隆汇APP ，作者城北徐公 格隆汇APP . 中国领先的全球投资研究平台。全球视野，下注中国。让普通的投资者能够享受到专业的研究服务，让每一个个体的投资之路不再孤单和艰难。 来源丨格隆汇（ ID：hkguruclub） 作者丨城北徐公 图源丨Midjourney 现在全球市场讨论最多的话题，就两个： 1. 美联储 12 月份到底将不降息； 2.AI 到底有没有、有多大泡沫？ 前者的分歧越来越大，预期概率一变再变；后者， Peter Thiel 和软银旗下基金都选择在高位减持甚至清仓英伟达，恐慌情绪不断蔓延，投资者也开始纷纷 抛售 AI 股。 此时此刻，作为全世界的希望，英伟达再一次站了出来。 11 月 19 日盘后，英伟达扔出堪称离谱 Q3 财报：总营收达到创纪录的 570.06 亿美元，不仅同比暴涨 62% ，还远超市场预期的 549.2 亿。 净利润飙到 319.1 亿美元，同比涨 65% ，折算下来每天净赚 3.5 亿；每股收益为 1.30 美元，同样超过预期的 1.26 美元。 更重要的是接下来的预期， Q4 营收预计将达到 650 亿美元，上下浮动 2% ，依然远远超过分析师平均预期 ...

生成式AI 二、NotebookLM震撼上线"一键生成幻灯片"功能，这次不一样 1. Google AI笔记神器NotebookLM正式推出"一键生成幻灯片"功能，用户只需上传资料即可在几分钟内生成逻辑清 晰的演示文稿； 2. 提供详细版和演讲版两种核心模式，支持通过提示语精准控制幻灯片风格、受众和重点，输出多种语言满足跨国汇 报需求； 3. 支持在线演示、PDF下载和链接共享多种管理方式，可广泛应用于学生复习、职场汇报和教师培训等多个场景。 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A2DOsQLxGMtXU9h-rwJWlQ 三、Meta再推WorldGen，一句话，「盖」出50×50米一座城 一、Nano Banana Pro的一张AI合影，肉眼难辨，刷爆全网 1. 谷歌Nano Banana Pro出世仅48小时即在LMArena榜单双榜第一，其AI生成的硅谷CEO合影刷爆全网，逼真到肉 眼无法分辨； 2. 该模型基于Gemini 3 Pro，在文字-图像测试中领先第一代84分，在图像编辑中高出41分，可通过坐标生成特定 地点历史事件； 3. 谷歌全栈优势凸显，从DeepMind研究人员搭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the AI sector, particularly focusing on Nvidia's recent Q3 earnings report, which shows strong financial performance despite concerns about potential bubbles in the AI market [1][2][4][30]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a record total revenue of $57.006 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 62%, significantly surpassing market expectations of $54.92 billion [4]. - The net profit reached $31.91 billion, up 65% year-on-year, translating to a daily profit of $350 million [4]. - For Q4, Nvidia expects revenue to reach $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $61.66 billion [5]. Business Segments - The data center business, contributing 89.5% of total revenue, generated $43 billion, primarily driven by the performance of the Blackwell series chips [20]. - The gaming and AI PC segment achieved $4.3 billion in revenue, with a 30% year-on-year growth, supported by strong sales of the RTX 50 series graphics cards [23]. - The professional visualization segment saw a revenue increase of 62% year-on-year, driven by demand in design tools and medical imaging [25]. - The automotive and robotics segment, while only 1% of total revenue, showed significant growth potential, with a 55% increase in shipments of the DRIVE AGX Orin chips [27]. Market Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the exponential growth in demand for GPUs, stating that every GPU is being utilized, indicating a healthy cycle for AI [7]. - Despite concerns raised by a controversial article alleging financial discrepancies within Nvidia's reporting, the company’s actual data appears robust upon closer examination [10][14][18]. - The article highlights the interconnected nature of funding within the AI sector, suggesting potential risks if the funding cycle were to break [12]. Future Outlook - Nvidia has committed to a revenue target of $500 billion, with clear visibility into data center revenue for the next two years [32]. - Key growth drivers include the anticipated shift from training to inference demand, the emergence of embodied AI, and the ongoing expansion of sovereign and enterprise AI projects [32]. - The success of the upcoming Rubin platform is seen as critical for sustaining growth, with expectations for advanced technology and increased production capacity [34]. Conclusion - Nvidia's Q3 results indicate a strong foundation for continued growth in the AI sector, despite the presence of speculative bubbles [30][31]. - The ongoing transformation of data centers into "AI factories" is expected to drive demand for several years, marking a significant shift in the industry [35].

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (00268) focuses on subscription-first and AI-first strategies, enhancing its product capabilities as a leading ERP provider in China, with revenue forecasts maintained at 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and a "Buy" rating upheld [1] Group 1: Product Updates - The recent product upgrade features a comprehensive enhancement of "platform + data cloud + AI-enhanced SaaS + AI native intelligence agents" [1] - The new AI product "Xiao K" serves as a unified entry point for enterprise-level AI agents, integrating nearly 20 agents covering various fields such as supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, HR, finance, and ESG, facilitating both independent and collaborative solutions for enterprise pain points [1] Group 2: AI Product Strategy - "Kingdee Cloud" has been fully upgraded to "Kingdee AI," with a strategic shift towards the Kingdee AI product family, offering AI packages for enterprises of all sizes [2] - The Kingdee Cloud Star flagship version will be upgraded to the Kingdee AI Star package on December 12, allowing customers to upgrade with one click, with a payment model based on organization size and usage [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kingdee's subscription ARR grew approximately 18% year-on-year to 3.86 billion, with a net addition of 130 million ARR compared to June, indicating stable overall growth [3] - The renewal rates for various products are reported as follows: Cang Qiong & Xing Han at 105%, Xing Kong at 95%, Xing Chen at 93%, and Jing Dou Yun at 88% [3] Group 4: International Expansion - Kingdee is accelerating its overseas expansion, initially serving Chinese enterprises abroad, then actively developing local markets, and finally establishing local R&D and delivery centers based on regional business conditions [4] - The management anticipates that overseas revenue could increase to 5%-10% of total revenue within the next 3-5 years [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$452.3 billion for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from AI investments and major clients like Apple, despite facing challenges from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached NT$989.92 billion, a 30.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit growth of 39.1% [1][11]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.5%, with an operating margin of 50.6% and a net profit margin of 45.7% [11]. - TSMC has revised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 34-36%, up from nearly 30% previously [2][11]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion, with an average of $41 billion, reflecting an increase from the previous average of $40 billion [3][12]. - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $9.7 billion, bringing the total for the first three quarters to $29.39 billion [3][12]. AI Market Outlook - TSMC's chairman emphasized the ongoing strong demand for AI-related products, with expectations of maintaining a compound annual growth rate of around 40% for AI business [5][6][9]. - The company is adapting to the evolving AI landscape by enhancing its production capabilities and collaborating closely with clients [9][10]. Global Strategy - TSMC's global expansion strategy is based on customer demand, geographical flexibility, and government support [12]. - The company is accelerating the introduction of advanced processes in its Arizona facility and expanding its operations in Japan and Germany [13][12]. Advanced Process Development - TSMC's 2nm process is set to enter trial production in Q4 2025, with mass production expected next year [13]. - The company is also focusing on advanced packaging technologies to meet increasing demand [13].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (601727) surged by 15.72%, hitting the upper limit in A-shares, driven by recent positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as local supply chain integration accelerates, with domestic foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose by 11%, as the company is a leading copper smelter in China, with First Quantum's copper mine expected to resume production [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) increased by 8%, following a significant rise in cobalt prices, which surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls from the Congo [1] Group 2 - Hang Seng Bank (00011) saw a 26% increase, following HSBC's recommendation for its privatization [2] - Solar energy stocks experienced gains, with upstream prices rising more than downstream prices in September; New Special Energy (01799) rose 4.52%, Flat Glass (601865) increased by 7.67%, and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) gained 3.73% [2] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress; China Railway (601390) rose 9%, China Metallurgical Group (601618) increased by 6%, and CRRC Corporation (601766) gained 4.17% [2] - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the launch of Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market; H shares increased by 10.73% [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, as it made a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with notable declines in stocks such as Innovent Biologics (09969) down over 9%, I-Mab (01801) down over 6%, and China Biologic Products (01177) down over 6% [3] Group 4 - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its year-to-date high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (02727) surged by 15.72%, with its A-shares hitting the daily limit, driven by positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as domestic supply chain localization accelerates, with local foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 11%, being a leading copper smelting company in China, with a potential resumption of production at a copper mine owned by First Quantum [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 8%, as cobalt prices surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) jumped 26% following HSBC's recommendation to privatize the bank [1] - Solar stocks saw gains in early trading, with prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continuing to rise in September, particularly in upstream sectors [1] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" railway development planning [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the overseas debut of its Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, making a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with several constituent stocks like Innovent Biologics (09969) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177) experiencing declines of over 6% [3] - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its yearly high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [3]

Summary of NVIDIA's Q1 Fiscal 2026 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA - **Fiscal Quarter**: Q1 of Fiscal 2026 - **Date of Call**: May 28, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Data Center Revenue**: Reached $39 billion, a 73% year-on-year growth driven by AI workloads transitioning to inference and AI factory build-outs [2][3] - **Export Controls Impact**: New U.S. export controls on the H20 GPU, specifically designed for the China market, resulted in a $4.5 billion inventory write-down and a loss of $2.5 billion in potential revenue for Q1 [2][13] - **China Market**: The loss of access to the China AI accelerator market, projected to grow to nearly $50 billion, poses a significant risk to NVIDIA's business [2][19] Financial Performance - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Q1 recognized $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before export controls [2] - Anticipated total revenue for Q2 is $45 billion, with a significant decline in China data center revenue expected [11][12] - **Gross Margins**: GAAP gross margin at 60.5%, non-GAAP at 61%. Excluding the $4.5 billion charge, non-GAAP gross margins would have been 71.3% [11] - **Shareholder Returns**: NVIDIA returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [11] Product and Technology Developments - **Blackwell Architecture**: Contributed nearly 70% of data center compute revenue, with significant improvements in manufacturing yields and ramp-up rates [3][4] - **Inference Demand**: Strong demand for inference, with Microsoft processing over 100 trillion tokens in Q1, a five-fold increase year-on-year [4] - **AI Factory Deployments**: Nearly 100 NVIDIA-powered AI factories in operation, doubling year-on-year, with significant growth in GPU usage per factory [5] Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - **Collaborations**: Partnerships with major companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Yum Brands to enhance AI capabilities across various sectors [6][10] - **Networking Solutions**: Revenue from networking grew 64% quarter-over-quarter to $5 billion, with significant adoption of Spectrum X among major cloud service providers [7][28] Future Outlook - **Guidance for Q2**: Expected revenue decline in China data center revenue, with a loss of approximately $8 billion in H20 revenue anticipated [11][18] - **Long-term Growth**: NVIDIA's roadmap extends through 2028, with a focus on AI infrastructure, enterprise AI, and industrial AI [4][30] - **AI as Infrastructure**: The company emphasizes the importance of AI as essential infrastructure, similar to electricity and the internet, with a significant build-out expected globally [22][25] Additional Insights - **Export Control Concerns**: The U.S. export restrictions are seen as detrimental to American competitiveness in the global AI market, potentially benefiting foreign competitors [13] - **Emerging AI Technologies**: The introduction of reasoning AI models is driving a surge in inference demand, with significant implications for compute requirements [14][19] - **Investment in Manufacturing**: NVIDIA is investing in onshore manufacturing capabilities to strengthen its supply chain and support AI infrastructure development [15][26] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during NVIDIA's Q1 Fiscal 2026 conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic direction, and the broader implications for the AI industry.

Core Insights - Glean, an AI startup, has raised $150 million in funding, achieving a valuation of $7.2 billion, significantly up from $4.6 billion in September 2022 [2][3] - The funding round was led by Wellington Management, with participation from existing investors like Sequoia Capital, indicating strong confidence in Glean's growth trajectory [3] - Glean aims to use the new funds to accelerate product development, expand its partner ecosystem, and pursue international growth [3] Company Overview - Founded in 2019, Glean started with enterprise search and has since developed products like Glean Assistant and Glean Agents, leveraging RAG technology for AI-driven enterprise search [4][6] - Glean Search allows employees to find data across internal documents and the web, while Glean Assistant automates daily tasks and provides data analysis through natural language queries [6] - Glean Agents enables the creation of AI agents for tasks like debugging software code, supporting over 100 million agents annually [6] Market Position and Growth - Glean's business model reflects a broader shift in the enterprise AI sector, moving from pilot projects to widespread deployment of autonomous agents [7] - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing from $55 million to $100 million [7] - Glean's client base includes Fortune 500 companies like Dell, showcasing its strong market presence [7] AI Implementation in Enterprises - Arvind Jain, Glean's CEO, emphasizes the importance of a robust data infrastructure for effective AI applications, including deep integration with enterprise systems and a solid security framework [8][9] - The challenges of enterprise AI deployment stem from the private and context-dependent nature of enterprise data, requiring an understanding of organizational structure and user roles [9] - Jain suggests that AI entrepreneurs should focus on solving specific business problems rather than starting with AI technology itself, building trust with enterprises through clear value propositions [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for NVIDIA, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [36]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported FY26Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 69% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, significantly exceeding market expectations of $43.3 billion and company guidance of $43 billion ± 2% [3][7]. - The data center business continues to drive growth, with Q1 data center revenue reaching $39.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter, with Blackwell contributing 70% of data center computing revenue [3][4]. - The company anticipates FY26Q2 revenue to be around $45 billion, considering an estimated loss of $8 billion in H20 revenue due to recent export control restrictions [5][8]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center**: FY26Q1 revenue reached a record high of $39.1 billion, with computing revenue at $34.2 billion (up 76% YoY) and networking revenue at $4.957 billion (up 56% YoY) [4]. - **Gaming**: FY26Q1 revenue was $3.763 billion, reflecting a 42% YoY increase and a 48% QoQ increase, driven by strong adoption of Blackwell architecture GPUs [4]. - **Professional Visualization**: FY26Q1 revenue was $509 million, showing a 19% YoY increase, with expectations for recovery in Q2 [4]. - **Automotive and Robotics**: FY26Q1 revenue was $567 million, up 72% YoY, driven by strong demand for autonomous driving and electric vehicles [4]. Profitability Metrics - The GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins for the quarter were 60.5% and 61.0%, respectively. Excluding a $4.5 billion expense, the non-GAAP gross margin would have reached 71.3% [3][7]. - GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.76 and $0.81, respectively. Adjusting for the $4.5 billion expense, the non-GAAP diluted EPS would have been $0.96 [3][7]. Future Outlook - The company aims to improve gross margins to the mid-70% range in the second half of the year, with FY26Q2 gross margin guidance set at 71.8% and 72.0% for GAAP and non-GAAP, respectively [5][8]. - NVIDIA is experiencing a significant increase in demand for AI applications, with expectations for AI spending to reach nearly $1 trillion in the coming years [12][17].