Group 1 - The core point of the news is that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (01880.HK) by 13.38 thousand shares on September 17, 2025, marking a trend of net reductions over recent trading days [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there have been three days of reductions, totaling a net decrease of 24.54 thousand shares [1][2] - In the last twenty trading days, there have been twelve days of reductions, with a cumulative net decrease of 42.86 thousand shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 46.2491 million shares of China Duty Free Group, which represents 39.73% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - The company primarily engages in the retail of tourism products and related services, operating in two main segments: sales of taxable and duty-free goods, and investment and development of commercial complexes [2] - The company's main business focuses on duty-free tourism retail, including wholesale and retail of duty-free products such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, luxury goods, clothing, and electronics [2]

Group 1 - The government has introduced 19 specific measures to boost service consumption, focusing on enhancing service supply and attracting foreign consumers [1][3] - The measures cover a wide range of industries, including internet, culture, telecommunications, sports events, education, and high-end healthcare, indicating a favorable policy environment for these sectors [1][3] - The emphasis is on addressing the supply-side shortage of quality services through financial support and policy adjustments, which is expected to invigorate the service consumption market [1][2] Group 2 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [2] - The overall consumption trend remains positive, with expectations for further policy support to boost consumption, potentially increasing the annual growth rate of retail sales to around 4.5% [2][4] - Analysts suggest a shift in policy focus from physical investments to experience-based service consumption, highlighting the importance of government support for service supply [4] Group 3 - Companies like Huazhu Group and Trip.com are expected to benefit from the recovery in tourism consumption, with Huazhu's EBITDA projected to grow by 5% to 1.5 billion yuan [5] - Trip.com anticipates a revenue growth of 12%-17% in 2025, benefiting from policies aimed at attracting foreign consumers [5] - Hong Kong Travel and China Duty Free are positioned to gain from inbound tourism and enhanced duty-free shopping opportunities, with potential increases in visitor numbers and sales [6]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector experienced a decline of 0.55% on September 17, with China Duty Free Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] - China Duty Free Group's closing price was 71.15, reflecting a decrease of 0.55%, with a trading volume of 283,000 shares and a transaction value of 2.011 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 83.0826 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 29.2964 million yuan [1] - The net inflow from speculative funds was 53.7862 million yuan, indicating varied investor sentiment within the sector [1] - China Duty Free Group had a net outflow of 83.0826 million yuan from institutional investors, representing a 4.13% decrease in net position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism retail sector experienced a 2.29% increase on September 16, led by China Duty Free Group, while the overall market indices showed modest gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The tourism retail sector saw a net inflow of 171 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 118 million yuan [1] - The stock of China Duty Free Group (601888) closed at 71.54 yuan, reflecting a 2.29% increase with a trading volume of 348,700 shares and a transaction value of 24.79 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Duty Free Group (中国中免) increased by 2.02% on September 16, reaching 71.35 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 344 million CNY and a market capitalization of 147.613 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 8.17%, with a 0.46% increase over the last five trading days, an 8.55% increase over the last 20 days, and a 17.20% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a stock market leaderboard) once this year, with the most recent appearance on April 10 [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free Group, established on March 28, 2008, and listed on October 15, 2009, primarily engages in the retail of tourism products and related services [2] - The company's main business segments include tourism retail, which accounts for 72.26% of revenue from duty-free and taxable goods, and tourism retail complex investment and development [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 28.151 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.600 billion CNY, down 20.81% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, China Duty Free Group has distributed a total of 18.405 billion CNY in dividends, with 7.241 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 82.66 million shares, an increase of 15.7285 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other significant shareholders include Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed Fund and various ETFs, with increases in their holdings compared to the previous period [3]

Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTG Duty Free) - **Ticker**: 1880.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$127 billion (US$16.4 billion) [5] Key Industry Insights - **Hainan Duty-Free Market**: Hainan is the key revenue source for CTG Duty Free, accounting for 55% of total revenue. The duty-free sales in Hainan are expected to improve, with a forecasted decline of only 1% in H225E, turning positive in Q425E [2][9]. - **Sales Performance**: Hainan duty-free sales decreased by 9% YoY in H125 but narrowed to a decline of 5% in June 2025, indicating a recovery trend [2][9]. Financial Performance - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit for Q425E is expected to increase YoY, with a projected NPM of 5.7% in H225E, up 1.8 percentage points YoY [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been cut by 14-12% due to lower-than-expected revenue and deteriorating margins. The revised EPS for 2025E is Rmb1.96, down from Rmb2.28 [6][12]. - **Revenue Projections**: Total revenue is expected to decline to Rmb53.647 billion in 2025E, with a gradual recovery to Rmb63.325 billion by 2027E [12][19]. Strategic Outlook - **Pricing Strategy**: The company plans to adjust its pricing strategy by reducing discounts and promotions, which is expected to stabilize margins and improve profitability [3][9]. - **Market Competition**: Cooling competition in Hainan's duty-free market is anticipated to support NPM expansion, alongside improved inventory management [9]. Valuation and Investment Rating - **Price Target**: The price target has been raised to HK$71.20 from HK$58.40, reflecting a 17% discount to the new price target for CTG-A [4][5]. - **Investment Rating**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations of positive sales growth and margin improvement in the coming years [4][9]. Risks and Challenges - **Major Risks**: - A sharp decline in CDF International's net profit - Higher concession rates at airports post re-tendering - Lower Hainan NPM due to increased discounts and a higher sales contribution from lower-margin consumer electronics [9]. Additional Financial Metrics - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to improve slightly, with GPM projected at 31.8% for 2025E [12]. - **Debt Metrics**: The net debt to EBITDA ratio is not meaningful (NM) for 2025E, indicating a strong balance sheet position [5]. Conclusion - The outlook for China Tourism Group Duty Free is cautiously optimistic, with expected improvements in sales and profitability driven by strategic pricing adjustments and a recovering Hainan market. However, potential risks related to competition and operational costs remain significant considerations for investors.

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector experienced a decline of 0.65% on September 15, with China Duty Free Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock price was reported at 69.94, reflecting a decrease of 0.65% with a trading volume of 246,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.728 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 211 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 191 million yuan [1] - The net inflow from speculative funds was recorded at 20.1027 million yuan, accounting for 1.16% of the total [1] - The net proportion of retail investors in the sector was noted at 11.06% [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) has seen a narrowing decline in revenue for the second quarter year-on-year, but the extent is below market expectations, leading to a downgrade in earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 14% to 12% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net profit margin have deteriorated due to the impact of sales costs and expenses [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating while raising the target price from HKD 58.4 to HKD 71.2 [1] Group 2: Sales Outlook - It is anticipated that sales at the Hainan duty-free stores will decline by 1% in the second half of the year due to a lower base, with a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [1] - If average customer spending stabilizes, sales in Hainan are expected to grow by 5% and 10% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Duty Free Group (01880) has seen a narrowing decline in Q2 revenue year-on-year, but the decline is below market expectations, and gross margin and net profit margin have worsened due to sales costs and expenses [1] Financial Performance - UBS has lowered the earnings per share estimates for China Duty Free Group for 2025 to 2027 by 14% to 12% [1] - The target price for the company has been raised from HKD 58.4 to HKD 71.2 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales Outlook - Due to a lower base, sales at China Duty Free's Hainan duty-free stores are expected to decline by 1% in the second half of the year, with a potential recovery in Q4 [1] - If average customer spending stabilizes, sales in Hainan are projected to grow by 5% and 10% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that China Duty Free Group's revenue decline in the second quarter has narrowed year-on-year, but the extent was below market expectations, leading to a downgrade in earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 14% to 12% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net profit margin have deteriorated due to the impact of sales costs and selling expenses [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on the company, raising the target price from HKD 58.4 to HKD 71.2 [1] Group 2: Sales Forecast - It is anticipated that sales at China Duty Free's Hainan duty-free stores will decline by 1% in the second half of the year due to a lower base, with a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [1] - If average customer spending stabilizes, the company's Hainan sales are expected to grow by 5% and 10% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1]