Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 備註： Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01972 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 5,757,484,800 | | 0 | | 5,757 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that the Hong Kong property market has begun to recover, predicting a rebound in residential property prices from 2027 to the second half of 2026, with an expected increase of approximately 3% and a further 5% rise in 2027 [1] Summary by Category Market Outlook - The forecast for residential property price rebound has been advanced to the second half of 2026 from 2027, with an anticipated increase of about 3% in 2026 and an additional 5% in 2027 [1] - The recovery in property prices is expected to lead to a resurgence in profitability and dividends for local property developers by 2027 [1] Company Ratings and Target Prices - Average target prices for local property stocks have been raised by 3%, with earnings forecasts adjusted upwards by up to 4% from this year to 2027 [1] - Longfor Group (01113) and Sino Land (00083) are favored among developers, with Longfor's rating upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" and target price increased from HKD 39 to HKD 42 [1] - Sino Land is also given a "Buy" rating, with its target price raised from HKD 9.8 to HKD 10.8 [1] Rental Stocks - The report expresses a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), both receiving "Buy" ratings, with target prices adjusted to HKD 10 and HKD 24.5 respectively [1] - The rating for MTR Corporation (00066) is maintained at "Underperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports an improvement in the office market due to better hiring conditions in the financial sector, predicting a recovery in the Central Grade A office market driven by increased recruitment and reduced supply [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Central Grade A office market is expected to recover first, with signs of bottoming out and a rebound anticipated [1] - The overall Hong Kong office market is projected to reach a turning point [1] Group 2: Rental Forecast - UBS forecasts that the rental decline for Central Grade A offices will narrow to 5% this year, compared to a 12% drop last year [1] - For the next two years, Grade A office rents across Hong Kong are expected to decline between 3% to 5%, an improvement from last year's 9% drop [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - UBS assigns a "Buy" rating to Swire Properties (01972), which is involved in Central Grade A offices, while giving a neutral rating to Swire A (00019) and Hongkong Land [1] Group 4: Market Data - The number of licenses increased by approximately 1,300 year-on-year as of June 2025, attributed to strong stock market performance this year [1] - The financial sector accounts for 57% of office tenants, indicating its significant impact on the office rental market [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports improvement in net absorption of office space in Hong Kong due to better hiring conditions in the financial sector [1] - The number of licenses is expected to increase by approximately 1,300 by June 2025, attributed to strong stock market performance this year [1] - Financial sector tenants account for 57% of office space users, indicating a potential stabilization in the commercial property market [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the rental decline for Grade A office space in Central will narrow to 5% this year, compared to a 12% decline last year [1] - For the next two years, Grade A office rents across Hong Kong are expected to decrease by 3% to 5%, an improvement from last year's 9% decline [1] - UBS assigns a "Buy" rating to Swire Properties, while giving a "Neutral" rating to Swire Pacific and Hongkong Land [1]

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Group 1 - The recent policy report from the government does not present significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" have not been implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083), while the most favored landlords are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that the Hong Kong government's Chief Executive, John Lee, has presented his fourth Policy Address, highlighting the optimization of capital investment plans and predicting that the super luxury property market will continue to outperform [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report states that transactions for properties priced between HKD 30 million and HKD 50 million accounted for approximately 1.2% of total transactions in the first half of the year, with a transaction value of around HKD 14 billion [1] - Hong Kong real estate stocks have risen approximately 25% year-to-date, and the fourth quarter performance is expected to be driven by several factors [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The CCL leading index for second-hand property prices increased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a cumulative increase of 0.8% for the year; if this trend continues, it may narrow the net asset value (NAV) discount for real estate stocks [1] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is estimated that Hong Kong's best lending rate will decrease by 12.5 basis points [1] - Strong retail performance is anticipated during the Golden Week in Hong Kong and mainland China [1] Group 3: Preferred Stocks - Citigroup's preferred stocks include Link REIT, Swire Properties, and New World Development, with a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties as well [1] - The company expects an increase in pricing power for new developments, combined with potential interest rate cuts, leading to significant residential property prices and transaction volumes by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core driving factors of the Hong Kong real estate market are interest rate fluctuations, with a downward trend in the US benchmark interest rate expected to be a certainty in the near term [1][2] - The Hong Kong real estate market has entered a new cycle driven by policy changes and structural differentiation, with a significant rebound expected following the "withdrawal of tightening" policy in February 2024 [1][2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong is projected to reach 53,099 transactions in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5% compared to 2023 [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Hong Kong market is attributed to the resonance of three main factors: policy, interest rates, and demand, with a shift from suppression to full stimulation in the policy environment after February 2024 [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected a total of HKD 129 billion into the market due to a strong Hong Kong dollar, leading to a significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% to 0.57% [2] - The introduction of talent recruitment plans has contributed to a year-on-year population growth in Hong Kong by June 2025, enhancing purchasing power and stabilizing the market [2] Group 3 - The current phase of the Hong Kong real estate market is characterized as an initial recovery stage, marked by a halt in price declines, a narrowing of price drops, and structural stabilization [3] - Transaction volumes have rebounded, and sentiment indicators have improved, indicating a shift in policy direction from "preventing bubbles" to "stabilizing the market" [3] - Leading indicators show a continuous decline in interest rates, increased supply, improved inventory digestion rates, and a positive impact on demand from population recovery [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that high-end consumer spending is becoming more cautious, leading to a year-on-year decline in retail property revenues for most companies in the first half of 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Retail Property Performance - Many companies reported a decline in retail property income for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - For instance, Hang Lung's overall retail income in mainland China was 2.412 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, with an overall occupancy rate of 94% [5]. - Specific performance metrics include: - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza: 0% change in income, 98% occupancy [7] - Shenyang City Government Hang Lung Plaza: 37% decline in income, 86% occupancy [7] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza: 8% increase in income, 96% occupancy [7]. Group 2: New Developments and Strategic Moves - Hang Lung signed a 20-year operating lease with Hangzhou Baida Group, adding approximately 42,000 square meters of retail space, a 40% increase [7]. - Swire Properties reported stable or increasing occupancy rates across its properties, with Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li and Guangzhou Taikoo Hui achieving 100% occupancy [8][9]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Strategic Adjustments - CapitaLand China Trust's nine retail properties generated 629 million yuan in revenue, a 4.46% decline, attributed to lower occupancy and rental levels in certain locations [10]. - Dalian Wanda's strategic move to privatize and repurchase shares for 2.932 billion Hong Kong dollars aims to optimize governance and improve profitability [10]. - The introduction of new stores, including international brands, reflects a trend towards personalized and experiential retail [11][13]. Group 4: Trends in Retail Formats - The report highlights a shift in outlet malls towards more flexible and experience-oriented models, moving away from traditional discount centers [14]. - New outlet projects, such as the Huipin Warehouse City Outlet in Shanghai, emphasize self-service shopping and diverse brand offerings [13].