Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate sector to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Market - The residential property market is viewed as the most promising, with prices having dropped 30% since 2018 and expected to bottom out by 2025, followed by a projected 10% increase in 2026 and further growth in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, reaching 140,000 annually post-pandemic, has doubled compared to the 70,000 per year from 2012 to 2019, contributing to positive population growth [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Market - Despite high vacancy rates, the office market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the continuous rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, as well as potential pressure from the expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China [2].

Core Insights - The luxury retail sector in China is facing significant challenges, with high-end malls and luxury brands experiencing a decline in performance and store closures due to changing consumer behavior and economic conditions [4][18][24]. Group 1: Market Trends - High-end malls like One ITC and IFC have seen a wave of luxury brand withdrawals, including major names like LV, Celine, and Tiffany, leading to increased vacancy rates [4][10]. - The luxury market in mainland China is projected to experience a continuous decline, with sales expected to drop by 18%-20% in 2024, reverting to 2020 levels [19][21]. - The relationship between luxury brands and high-end malls, which was once mutually beneficial, is deteriorating as both sectors struggle to adapt to new market realities [12][17]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Hang Lung Properties reported an 18.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of the year, with net profits decreasing for two consecutive years [6][10]. - Other major players in the high-end real estate sector, such as Swire Properties and New World Development, are also facing financial difficulties, with Swire reporting a loss of HKD 1.202 billion [8][10]. - Rental income from luxury brands is becoming increasingly critical for high-end malls, with Hang Lung's rental income share rising from 58.8% to 70.3% [24]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - In response to declining performance, high-end malls are exploring new strategies, such as introducing new consumer brands and shifting towards a more inclusive customer base [26][29]. - Companies like China Resources are successfully expanding their shopping centers by focusing on experiential retail and attracting a broader range of consumers through innovative marketing strategies [32][33]. - The shift from traditional luxury retail to a more experience-driven model is evident, with malls aiming to transform from mere shopping venues to lifestyle destinations [32][34].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年12月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年1月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | Swire Properties Limited 太古地產有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01972 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 ...

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Group announced that Augustus Tang will step down as Chairman of the Board on May 13, 2026, and retire from Swire Group on May 31, 2026, concluding over 30 years of his career [1] - The board has appointed Rupert Hogg as the new Chairman of Cathay Pacific Group, effective from May 13, 2026 [1] - Rupert Hogg, currently the Chairman of Swire Properties and a director of Cathay Pacific Airways, aims to work closely with the leadership team to enhance the overall performance of Cathay Pacific Group and support Hong Kong's position as a leading international aviation hub [1] Group 2 - Augustus Tang expressed his honor in serving as Chairman of Cathay Pacific Group for the past six years and thanked customers for their continued support [1] - Rupert Hogg has held significant positions in major markets including mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, and the Middle East since joining Swire Group in 1987 [1] - Hogg will continue to serve as Chairman of Swire Properties, Swire Group, and Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company alongside his new role at Cathay Pacific Group [1]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties is undergoing significant management changes, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing its operations in mainland China, particularly in the retail sector, which has shown stronger performance compared to its office business [7]. Group 1: Management Appointments - David Poraj-Wilczynski has been appointed as the CEO for mainland China, bringing extensive leadership experience from various sectors including marine and real estate [1][2]. - Jessica Huang has been promoted to Vice Chairman of Swire Properties, overseeing digital transformation efforts in Hong Kong and mainland China, after successfully managing the Guangzhou Taikoo Hui [4]. - Mark Wang, previously the General Manager of Beijing Taikoo Li, will take over as the General Manager of Guangzhou Taikoo Hui [4]. - Guy Moore has been appointed General Manager of Beijing Taikoo Li, with a focus on the expansion of the project set to be completed in phases by 2026 [5]. - Chen Xiaoying has been appointed General Manager of Swire Properties' residential business in mainland China, while continuing her role in investment development for North China [6]. Group 2: Retail Performance - Swire Properties' retail sales in Hong Kong have shown modest growth, with Taikoo Place shopping mall sales increasing by 3.6% year-on-year as of September [7]. - In contrast, the mainland retail market has demonstrated significant growth, with Shanghai Xinye Taikoo Hui sales up by 41.9% and a rental rate of 95% [7]. - Other notable sales increases include Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li at 7.8%, Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li at 5.6%, and Chengdu Taikoo Li at 2.4% [7]. Group 3: Investment Plans - Swire Properties has committed to a strategic investment plan of HKD 100 billion over ten years, with half of this amount allocated to mainland China [7]. - As of the mid-year financial report, 67% of the investment plan has been committed, with 92% of the HKD 50 billion earmarked for mainland projects already secured [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "little ice age," resulting from structural changes in the economy, leading to new consumer behavior trends [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Consumers are increasingly unwilling to experiment with gimmicks, favoring cost-effectiveness and quality-price ratio in their purchases [1] - "Small happiness" consumption and self-improvement consumption are expected to become mainstream trends in the market [1] Group 2: Technological Impact - A technological revolution is anticipated to drive innovation across various consumer categories [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup reports that JD Group has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Tower for HKD 3.5 billion from Lishin Development, while a local higher education institution purchased a commercial building in Kowloon Tong for HKD 1.96 billion from Frasers Property [1] - The demand from Chinese enterprises for office spaces is expected to continue supporting the Hong Kong office market, driven by factors such as more Chinese tech giants considering property acquisitions in Hong Kong and an increase in A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong [1] - Citigroup observes that the sale of office properties in Hong Kong is primarily aimed at generating immediate cash flow and optimizing investment portfolios, particularly for regional owners who are also considering commercial property growth prospects in other regions like Singapore and Australia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that office performance in Central and West Kowloon will outperform other areas by 2026, with rental rates for major owners in Central likely stabilizing by the end of next year [2] - New quality supply in West Kowloon, such as IGC, is expected to be competitive in attracting demand, with rental levels comparable to those in the Eastern District of Hong Kong, benefiting companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties [2] - Given the historical high of overall new supply, competition in Causeway Bay is anticipated to intensify, with projects like Hysan Development's Lee Gardens likely to perform well, while properties in Eastern Hong Kong may face pressure [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup reported that JD Group agreed to acquire a 50% stake in the Central China Construction Bank Tower for HKD 3.5 billion from Lishin Development, while a local higher education institution purchased a Kowloon Tong office building for HKD 1.96 billion from Frasers Property [1] - Citigroup expects demand from Chinese enterprises for office spaces to continue supporting the Hong Kong office market, driven by factors such as more Chinese tech giants considering property acquisitions and an increase in A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong [1] - The report noted that the sale of office buildings in Hong Kong is primarily aimed at generating immediate cash flow and optimizing investment portfolios, particularly for regional owners who are also considering commercial property growth in other regions like Singapore and Australia [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that office performance in Central and West Kowloon will outperform other areas by 2026, with rental rates for major owners in Central expected to stabilize by the end of next year [2] - The report highlights that new quality supply in West Kowloon, such as IGC, may be competitive in attracting demand, with rental levels comparable to those in the Eastern District of Hong Kong Island [2] - Citigroup anticipates increased competition in Causeway Bay due to a historic high in overall new supply, with specific projects like Hysan Development's Lee Garden performing well, while properties in Eastern Hong Kong Island may face pressure [2]

Core Insights - Swire Properties has announced the launch of "Qiantan Place," a joint development with Lujiazui Group, which includes two Grade A office buildings expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - "Qiantan Place" consists of One Qiantan Place and Two Qiantan Place, forming part of the expanded Qiantan Taikoo Li mixed-use development [1] - The total construction area of the two office buildings is approximately 125,600 square meters, with One Qiantan Place offering 30 floors of premium office space and Two Qiantan Place providing 24 floors [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Shanghai is the largest city by area for Swire Properties' business in mainland China, with significant ongoing projects including the Qiantan Taikoo Li and Lujiazui Taikoo Yuan [1] - The Qiantan area has developed into a vibrant urban hub, attracting global investors and multinational corporations due to its comprehensive business environment [3] Group 3: Future Vision - The collaboration between Swire Properties and Lujiazui Group aims to create a landmark office space that meets the growing demand for high-quality office environments in Shanghai [3] - The project reflects a commitment to innovation, sustainability, and community engagement, aligning with the trends in the office market that prioritize employee well-being and operational efficiency [3]

Core Insights - Swire Properties and Lujiazui Group have jointly launched "Qiantan Plaza," which includes two super-grade A office buildings as part of the expansion of the Qiantan Taikoo Li integrated development project, with pre-leasing officially commenced [1][3] Group 1: Project Overview - Qiantan Plaza consists of two super-grade A office buildings, Qiantan Plaza One and Qiantan Plaza Two, located in the Qiantan International Business District of Shanghai [3] - The total construction area of the project is approximately 125,600 square meters, with one building having 30 floors and the other 24 floors, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [3] - The project is designed by KPF and features outdoor terraces, rooftop greenery, and panoramic views of the Huangpu River, focusing on employee well-being and office efficiency [3] Group 2: Connectivity and Sustainability - The project boasts convenient transportation links, adjacent to major roads and connecting to metro lines 6, 8, and 11, with the 19th line expected to enhance connectivity by 2028 [3] - Qiantan Plaza emphasizes sustainable development, having received dual platinum pre-certifications from LEED and WELL, and includes green technologies such as a dedicated energy center, air quality monitoring systems, and rooftop solar panels [3] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The collaboration continues the successful experience of the Qiantan Taikoo Li, which has become a benchmark since its opening in 2021, with the expansion project set to double the retail area to 267,000 square meters [3] - As a core project for Swire Properties in Shanghai, Qiantan Plaza aims to leverage the mature business environment of Qiantan to attract global enterprises and talent, injecting new vitality into Shanghai's urban business landscape [3]