近期，北京三里屯太古里完成新一轮改造，重装亮相。本轮调整自2022年启动，以北区为核心，涉及近 半商业空间的结构性重构，并同步推进南区、西区公共空间与动线系统优化。无论从持续时间还是资本 投入强度来看，这一轮改造在北京成熟商圈中都较为少见。 在太古地产2025年中期业绩报告中，太古地产行政总裁彭国邦（Tim Blackburn）披露称，公司计划投 放于中国内地的500亿港元资金，已落实约92%进度。三里屯太古里的改造项目，正是这笔巨额资本在 地标性项目上的具体投射。 近年来，新增商业用地供给有限，北京核心商圈转向"存量提质"。2021年北京市委办公厅印发的《北京 市城市更新行动计划（2021–2025年）》，明确提出要"系统推进存量空间的提质增效"，三里屯太古里 的这轮升级，也是这一框架下所推进的代表案例之一。 本轮更新并非只针对店铺本身。北区多栋楼体及下沉广场也完成了相应改造，三里屯西街等区域正在同 步优化，并新增人行连接系统，这也意味着三里屯太古里将承担起更多"城市公共空间"功能。 与传统商业改造不同，三里屯太古里并未选择完全停业，而是在运营状态下推进施工。 在谈及改造动因时，太古地产零售业务董事韩置向智 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]

Core Insights - Swire Properties announced significant progress in the renovation and upgrade of Sanlitun Taikooli, with nearly half of the commercial space in the North District completed and brand optimization achieved [1][2]. Group 1: Renovation and Brand Strategy - The strategic upgrade of Sanlitun Taikooli began in 2022, driven by two market trends: the increasing demand for customized retail spaces from brand partners and the growing consumer desire for diverse experiences [2]. - The North District has welcomed flagship stores from top international brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hermes, all designed by world-class architects, enhancing the high-end retail experience in Beijing [2][3]. - The project has successfully launched 171 high-quality brand flagship stores and hosted 227 exclusive events, focusing on both high-end luxury brands and diverse consumer needs [3]. Group 2: Community and Urban Development - The upgrade aligns with Beijing's efforts to establish itself as an international consumption center, responding positively to urban development strategies [4]. - A new pedestrian bridge connecting the South and West Districts has been constructed, improving regional connectivity and enhancing the overall shopping experience for consumers [5]. - The project integrates ESG principles into the renovation process, utilizing green materials and energy-saving systems to reduce environmental impact, reflecting the alignment of commercial projects with sustainable urban development goals [5]. Group 3: Future Developments - Ongoing renovations include the transformation of the North District N1 floor (formerly the Opposite House Hotel) and further enhancements to community spaces and public quality in the surrounding area [5].

Group 1 - Hong Kong local real estate stocks experienced a broad increase, with Hysan Development rising over 5% [1] - Other notable gainers include Kowloon Development and Kerry Properties, both up over 4%, while Kowloon Group and Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by over 3% [1] - Swire Properties B shares rose nearly 3%, and Longfor Group, Sino Land, Swire Properties A, and Swire Group all saw increases of over 1% [1] Group 2 - Hysan Development's latest price is 21.600 with a market capitalization of 221.83 billion [2] - Kowloon Development's latest price is 26.600 with a market capitalization of 807.64 billion [2] - Kerry Properties' latest price is 22.840 with a market capitalization of 331.48 billion [2] - Kowloon Group's latest price is 24.940 with a market capitalization of 762.17 billion [2] - Sun Hung Kai Properties' latest price is 113.900 with a market capitalization of 3300.57 billion [2] - Swire Properties B's latest price is 12.460 with a market capitalization of 354.98 billion [2] - Longfor Group's latest price is 43.960 with a market capitalization of 1538.5 billion [2] - Sino Land's latest price is 11.500 with a market capitalization of 1090.72 billion [2] - Swire Properties' latest price is 23.380 with a market capitalization of 1346.1 billion [2] - Swire Group's latest price is 74.400 with a market capitalization of 579.57 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties has made significant progress in the renovation and upgrade of Sanlitun Taikoo Li, with nearly half of the commercial space in the North District completed and flagship stores of top international brands like Dior, Louis Vuitton, and Tiffany set to open by December 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Progress - The renovation began around 2022, coinciding with the expiration of leases for several large anchor stores, providing an opportunity for upgrades [2]. - The North District has undergone a comprehensive transformation since early 2023, including redesigning public areas, store structures, facades, and surrounding landscapes to create a high-end fashion destination [3]. Group 2: Brand and Store Changes - The transformation aims to shift Sanlitun Taikoo Li from a trendy hotspot to a high-end fashion destination, with the closure of popular fast-fashion brands like ZARA and H&M, and the relocation of Uniqlo [3]. - The new design features flagship stores and core concept stores from global brands, with all stores designed by top architects [3]. Group 3: Target Audience and Experience - The management acknowledges that while Sanlitun Taikoo Li has historically been a gathering place for young people, the demographic has matured, necessitating adjustments in the commercial offerings [4]. - Despite the changes, the venue continues to provide diverse experiences for younger visitors, including the addition of bookstores, dessert shops, and cafes along Sanlitun Road [4].

本次升级另一亮点是：实现了商业空间与城市肌理的深度融合。南区完成品牌矩阵迭代，西区通过政企 协同优化街区环境，新建人行连桥打通南西两区动线，提升区域连通性。公共空间升级同步落地，北区 下沉花园改造为集艺术、文化与社群活动于一体的复合型空间，高品质贵宾休息区、品牌VIP尊享空间 及优化后的落客区，构建全场景服务体系。三里屯街道办事处工委书记孙曙光认为，这种"商业升级 +社区营造"的模式，在政企共治中激活了区域活力，为城市更新提供了有效范本。 新京报记者了解到，三里屯太古里的焕新仍在推进。三里屯太古里总经理马泽丹透露，北区N1楼（原 瑜舍酒店）的改造重建工程、周边区域的进一步社区营造与公共空间品质提升工作正在稳步推进，未来 将持续深化国际先锋艺术、时尚与文化的融合共生。 据统计，2025年上半年，三里屯商圈客流量达4681万人次，同比增长33.5%，近3年持续保持增长态 势。2025年12月旗舰集群集中启幕后，项目客流量实现显著增长。 新京报讯（记者王萍）1月21日，太古地产宣布，三里屯太古里新一轮焕新升级取得里程碑式进展。北 区近半数商业空间完成焕新，迪奥、路易威登、蒂芙尼等国际顶级品牌旗舰店集中入驻，此外，即 ...

Core Insights - Swire Properties announced significant progress in the renovation and upgrade of Sanlitun Taikoo Li, aiming to establish it as a globally recognized fashion and cultural destination [1] - The renovation focuses on experiential retail, integrating local cultural elements with global lifestyle trends, providing a dynamic platform for both international and local brands [1] Group 1: Renovation Progress - The North District renovation has been completed over three years since its initiation in 2022, with nearly half of the commercial space revamped and an optimized brand lineup [3] - High-end flagship stores from international brands such as Dior, Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Tiffany & Co. have opened, all designed by top architects [3] - The foot traffic at Sanlitun Taikoo Li has significantly increased since the opening of multiple flagship stores in December 2025 [3] Group 2: Brand and Service Enhancements - The brand mix emphasizes diversity and functional integration, featuring China's first Dior restaurant and the first Le Café Louis Vuitton in Beijing, along with a planned Hermès store set to open in Spring 2026 [4] - A variety of luxury brands, including Alaïa, Balenciaga, Burberry, and Rolex, have established flagship stores, creating a multi-layered high-quality brand cluster [4] - Service enhancements include the establishment of high-quality VIP lounges, an upgraded membership system, improved drop-off areas, and a revitalized sunken garden for cultural and community activities [5] Group 3: Future Developments - The renovation journey continues with plans for the redevelopment of the North District N1 floor and further community building and public space quality improvements [5] - The project aims to deepen the integration of international avant-garde art, fashion, and culture, reinforcing its status as a future urban landmark and contributing to Beijing's development as a world-class city [5]

首选股方面，收租股(商场/写字楼类)偏好恒隆地产(00101)及太古地产(01972)。发展商偏好信和置业 (00083)。同时亦看好置地公司，但建议等待更佳的入市时机。 摩根大通发布研报称，香港地产股业绩期将于1月底展开。虽然该行预期大部分公司的盈利仍将持续下 行，香港住宅市场改善对2025财年报表的影响有限，但该行认为即将公布的业绩或将成为大多数公司的 低位，下一财政年度盈利很大机会反弹。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the earnings of most Hong Kong real estate stocks are expected to continue declining, the upcoming earnings announcements may represent a low point for many companies, with a significant chance of earnings rebound in the next fiscal year [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - The earnings season for Hong Kong real estate stocks is set to begin at the end of January [1] - The impact of the improvement in the Hong Kong residential market on the fiscal year 2025 financial statements is expected to be limited [1] - Most companies are anticipated to report continued earnings decline [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - For rental stocks (shopping malls/office buildings), the preferred choices are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1] - For developers, the preferred stock is Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - The report also expresses a positive outlook on the Land Development Company but suggests waiting for a better entry point [1]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]