Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has priced in the stable recovery of the Hong Kong property market over the next two years, as several Hong Kong real estate stocks have reached or are close to historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The potential upside for rental stocks is greater, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most stock prices still over 30% lower than their peaks [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - The preferred stocks are Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties, due to the continuous improvement in their retail businesses in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development could become a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land and Henderson Land, but the overall recommendation is to wait for a better entry point [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that Swire Properties (01972) is expected to see a 21% year-on-year increase in shareholders' attributable and a 5% decrease in recurring underlying profit for 2025 [1] - The company is anticipated to show stable and improving operational performance in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, with the execution speed of its capital recycling plan exceeding expectations [1] - The company is expected to maintain its dividend commitment, with a projected total annual dividend of HKD 1.15 per share, corresponding to a 5% dividend yield [1] Group 2 - The forecast for Swire Properties' recurring underlying profit for 2026 has been raised by 11% to HKD 7.99 billion, indicating a 30% year-on-year growth, reflecting the impact of sales settlements at 6 Deep Water Bay Road [1] - A new forecast for 2027 recurring underlying profit of HKD 7.12 billion has been introduced, representing an 11% year-on-year decline, primarily due to conservative estimates for property development settlements [1] - The property investment segment is expected to achieve growth through natural increases from existing projects and the opening of new projects [1]

该行上调太古地产2026年经常性基本溢利预测11%至79.9亿元，意味同比增长30%，以反映深水湾道6号 销售结算带来的影响；引入2027年经常性基本溢利预测71.2亿元，同比跌11%，其下降主要反映审慎的 开发物业结算估计，而其中物业投资部分预计随存量项目自然增长和新项目开业而实现增长。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预测太古地产(01972)2025年股东应占和经常性基本溢利分别同比 增长21%和下降5%。该行认为相较于2025年上半年，下半年公司核心资产的整体经营情况呈现稳中向 好的态势，同时资本循环计划执行速度超出预期。该行维持予其"跑赢行业"评级及目标价26.5港元。 该行预计在稳健经营的背景下，太古地产将坚定兑现派息承诺，预测全年累计每股股息为1.15港元，对 应5%股息收益率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates that several brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, contributing to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market appears to have priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - There is greater potential upside for rental stocks, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below peak levels [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - JPMorgan's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could emerge as a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but the overall recommendation is to wait for better entry points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has contributed to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks for rental stocks are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has led to an 11% increase in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]

资本循环计划顺利推进，资产负债表维持稳健。公司于1H25 完成迈阿密商场、车位及邻近商场空置地 块的处置，2H25 则继续成功处置太古城车位等非核心资产，同时考虑港岛东中心交付，我们预计全年 物业处置有望贡献约20 亿港币利润。顺利的资产处置支持公司在持续的资本开支之下仍维持相对稳定 的杠杆水平和利息费用（1H25 净负债率15.7%）。 盈利预测与估值 业绩料持续稳中向好，支持中长期派息政策延续。我们维持2025 年经常性基本溢利预测61.7 亿港元 （同比-5%）、上调基本溢利12%至81.7 亿元以反映下半年超预期的资产处置进度；上调2026 年经常性 基本溢利预测11%至79.9 亿港元（同比+30%），以反映深水湾道6 号销售结算带来的影响；引入2027年 经常性基本溢利预测71.2 亿港元（同比-11%），其下降主要反映审慎的开发物业结算估计，而其中物 业投资部分预计随存量项目自然增长和新项目开业而实现增长。派息方面，我们认为公司将维持"目标 每年股息以中单位数幅度增长"的长期政策，预计2025 年股息收益率5.0%。维持跑赢行业评级及26.5 港 元目标价，对应4.3%/4.5%2025-26 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out by mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to the CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] - The report forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in Hong Kong residential prices in 2026, followed by a further 5% increase in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector is believed to have normalized, leading to a more moderate price increase outlook [1] Group 2 - The company has raised target prices for several stocks by an average of 8% to reflect a stronger outlook for residential prices and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook for "buy" ratings on Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101), while reiterating a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to its large capital expenditure plans [1] - The report identifies potential catalysts for Hang Lung Properties, Henderson Land (00012), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) in the first quarter [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that developers have already factored in a 5% to 10% increase in residential prices when comparing current residential prices and stock prices to 2021 [1] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility after earnings announcements [1] Group 4 - The report indicates that the rebound in earnings will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record a significant earnings rebound for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are projected to lead the earnings rebound for developers from 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America forecasts that the Hong Kong residential market will bottom out in mid-2025, with a recovery expected to strengthen in 2026, extending to CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Residential prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in 2026 and by 5% in 2027 [1] - The bank believes that sector valuations have normalized, anticipating a moderate increase in prices [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The bank has raised target prices for several companies by an average of 8% to reflect stronger residential price outlook and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The bank maintains a "buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [1] - MTR Corporation (00066) is reiterated with an "underperform" rating due to low likelihood of significant dividend increases amid large capital expenditure plans [1] Group 4: Potential Catalysts - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and plans to increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land Development (00012) will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility post-earnings announcement [1] - Wharf Holdings (01997) is projected to see a 7% increase in dividends for the fiscal year 2025, supported by a decline in HIBOR and rising excess rents [1] Group 5: Earnings Recovery - The bank believes that earnings recovery will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land Development expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record significant earnings rebound in fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are anticipated to lead the earnings rebound for developers from fiscal years 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]