今年4月，先声药业(02096)先后宣布自身多款差异化创新的ADC品种将亮相今年的AACR年会。此时正值港股医药板块的自主创新周期，叠加ADC新秀映恩 生物挂牌上市，市场聚光灯再次聚焦于港股ADC赛道。而作为国内创新ADC赛道的领头羊之一，先声药业也同样受到业界和市场的双重关注。 智通财经APP观察到，在多重利好推动下，4月22日，先声药业股价高开高走，盘中最大涨幅达到15.44%，远高于当日恒生医疗保健指数6.07%的涨幅。 拉长时间线来看，港股创新药板块中为数不多的先于2024年9月牛市率先启动的标的，先声药业在去年4月5日触及阶段性底部后，便走出了一段不惧外部因 素干扰、稳步上升的长牛行情，实现季度"五连阳"，至今区间最高累涨高达81.35%。 虽然近期恒指大盘波动不止，但投资者依旧选择用脚投票助力先声药业股价实现快速反弹和向上突破。究其原因则在于创新驱动下，公司的"投资确定性"正 得到持续验证。 投资确定性背后的创新驱动 自2000年首款ADC药物获批以来，该领域经历了多次技术迭代，从早期因毒性问题屡遭挫折，到近年来凭借新型连接子、高活性载荷和优化抗体设计的"三 位一体"突破，逐渐成为肿瘤治疗的主流方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The biopharmaceutical industry is crucial for national economy and people's livelihood, with leading domestic companies increasing R&D efforts and transitioning from generic drugs to innovative drugs [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - In 2024, the revenue from innovative drugs for the company is expected to account for 74.3%, contributing 4.928 billion yuan, making it the core engine of performance [2] - The company maintains a stable R&D expense ratio of 20% to 30% of revenue, with 1.523 billion yuan spent in the previous year, representing 23% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to R&D investment [2] - The company has nearly 60 self-developed projects in its pipeline, focusing on clinical value and molecular differentiation to determine which products advance to late-stage clinical development [2][3] Group 2: Internationalization and Collaboration - The company emphasizes internationalization as a key direction for innovative drug development, facing challenges such as differing clinical and market needs, regulatory requirements, and the need for sustainable funding [4] - The company has successfully licensed overseas rights for its self-developed therapies, with total agreements exceeding 1.6 billion USD, showcasing international recognition of its innovative drug development capabilities [4][7] Group 3: AI Integration in Drug Development - The company recognizes the potential of AI technology to enhance various aspects of the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on early-stage molecular generation, clinical research efficiency, and organizational management [5] - The company is exploring private AI deployment and has established an "AI+ department" to accelerate AI application in drug development [5] Group 4: Research Initiatives and Funding - The "Xiansheng All-Heavy Exploration Plan" was launched with a total investment of 2 billion yuan over five years, aimed at addressing the urgent clinical needs in neurology and oncology through interdisciplinary collaboration and innovative research [6][7] - The plan is supported by a scientific advisory committee composed of 11 academicians, ensuring the research's foresight and feasibility [7]

Summary of Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (Ticker: 2096.HK) - **Industry**: China Healthcare Key Points and Arguments Price Target Adjustments - **Price Target**: Increased from HK$8.70 to HK$9.50 [1] - **Bull Case**: Increased from HK$11.80 to HK$12.70 [1] - **Bear Case**: Increased from HK$3.80 to HK$4.30 [1] Sales Forecasts - **2025-2027 Sales Forecasts**: Adjusted by +2%, +8%, and -1% respectively, based on guidance and new assumptions [1] - **New Products Contribution**: Sales from new products and pipeline drugs such as Tocilizumab, SIM0500, and TGRX-326 are included in revenue models [1] Earnings Adjustments - **Recurring Net Incomes**: Adjusted by -7.7%, +14.3%, and -14.9% for 2025-2027 due to increased operating expenses [2] - **WACC**: Lowered from 11.0% to 11.5% due to a lower beta [2] Financial Metrics - **ModelWare EPS Estimates**: Adjusted for fiscal years ending 2024 to 2027, with EPS estimates of Rmb 0.29, 0.48, 0.70, and 0.64 respectively [3] - **Prior EPS Estimates**: Rmb 0.37, 0.52, 0.61, and 0.76 respectively [3] Investment Thesis - **Company Positioning**: Long-established pharmaceutical company focusing on oncology, CNS, and autoimmune diseases with a productive sales force [11] - **Legacy Drugs**: Strong cash-generating capabilities from legacy drugs like Endostar and Iremod [11] - **New Product Growth**: Newly launched products expected to drive near-term growth [11] - **Innovative Pipeline**: Over 10 innovative drug candidates in development with promising clinical progress [11] Risks and Challenges - **Sales Growth Risks**: Potential sales and margin erosion due to competition and slower ramp-up of new drugs [20] - **Policy Headwinds**: Continuous challenges from policy changes affecting margins and volumes [20] Market Performance - **Current Stock Price**: HK$8.25 as of April 1, 2025 [3] - **52-Week Range**: HK$8.52 to HK$5.03 [3] Consensus Rating - **Stock Rating**: Overweight [3] - **Industry View**: Attractive [3] Revenue Exposure - **Geographic Exposure**: 100% of revenue derived from Mainland China [16] Additional Important Information - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Simcere Pharmaceutical Group [30][31] - **Analyst Certification**: Analysts certify that their views are accurately expressed and have not received compensation for specific recommendations [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial metrics discussed in the conference call regarding Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, highlighting its market position, financial adjustments, and potential risks.

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.635 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 733 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 1.018 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 41.6% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from innovative drug business was RMB 4.928 billion, accounting for 74.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - Neuroscience revenue was RMB 2.174 billion, representing 32.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - Autoimmune revenue was RMB 1.811 billion, making up 27.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 28.0% [1] - Oncology revenue was RMB 1.298 billion, accounting for 19.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 17.6% [1] - Other fields generated RMB 1.352 billion, representing 20.3% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 18.0% [1] Product Development and Collaborations - The company has eight innovative drugs in the commercialization stage, with two new products recently approved in China [2] - The newly approved products include Enlituzumab for mCRC and Xianbixin sublingual tablets for AIS [2] - A collaboration agreement was signed with Shenzhen Tajiri Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for exclusive commercialization rights of NSCLC drug TGRX-326 in mainland China [2] Strategic Partnerships - A licensing option agreement was established with AbbVie Inc. for the investigational drug SIM0500, retaining rights in Greater China [4] - Collaboration with Guangzhou Fermi Technology Co., Ltd. for a pain relief candidate FZ002-037, securing exclusive rights in Greater China [4] - Partnership with Jinyu Boworunze Biotechnology Co., Ltd. for the commercialization of Tocilizumab injection in Greater China [4] Production Capacity and Innovation Initiatives - The company is enhancing production capacity to align with its Innovation 2.0 strategy, with a new production base completed in 12 months [4] - A new production license for Ledeqi Bevacizumab injection was approved in April 2024 [4] - The company plans to invest RMB 2 billion over five years in the "Seeking Innovation" program, focusing on ten scientific challenges in neuroscience and oncology [5] Research Directions - The ten research directions include reversing high mortality and disability rates in stroke treatment, precision treatment for neurodegenerative diseases, and enhancing cancer treatment efficacy [5] - Other areas of focus include RNA interference/mRNA technology applications, next-generation cell therapy, gene editing, and AI applications in drug discovery and clinical efficacy prediction [5]

新京报讯(记者王卡拉)在3月29日-3月30日举行的神经与肿瘤药物研发全国重点实验室协同创新会议上， 神经与肿瘤药物研发全国重点实验室发布"先声全重求索计划"，预计5年累计投入20亿元，聚焦神经与 肿瘤领域十大科学难题，支持"从0到1"的颠覆性创新研究。 "求索计划"由11位中国科学院及工程院院士组成科学指导委员会，为项目进行方向性规划，鼓励非共识 性创新、多学科交叉融合、综合运用新兴技术。 "求索计划"主要针对十大研究方向：从根本上逆转脑卒中高死亡率、高致残率的治疗手段；精准治疗神 经退行性疾病的潜在靶点发现、验证和药物研发；有望大幅提升当前肿瘤治疗效果的靶点(或组合)发 现、验证和药物研发验证；RNA干扰/mRNA技术在神经退行性疾病、肿瘤和感染等领域的治疗性应 用；新一代细胞治疗的临床应用；新一代基因编辑等相关技术的临床应用；新一代递送技术的临床应 用；抗衰老相关机制的临床应用；基于临床数据，AI技术手段应用于靶点发现、验证；AI技术手段应 用于药物研发临床有效性和安全性预测。 "求索，顾名思义就是要探索未知、攻克难题、寻找答案，我们要凝聚一群生命科学领域、年轻的求索 者，为了患者和临床医生的期待，探索 ...

Core Insights - The "Xiansheng Full Exploration Plan" was launched by Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, which will invest 2 billion yuan over the next five years to focus on ten major scientific challenges in the fields of neurology and oncology [1][2] - The plan aims to support disruptive innovation research from the ground up, with a scientific advisory committee composed of 11 academicians from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering [1] Group 1: Investment and Collaboration - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical will invest 2 billion yuan, and the Nanjing Jiangbei New Area will match this with an additional 2 billion yuan, creating a total investment of 4 billion yuan for the "Xiansheng Full Exploration Plan" [2] - The collaboration aims to establish a demonstration project that integrates technological innovation and industrial innovation [2] Group 2: Research Directions - The ten research directions supported by the plan include: 1. Treatment methods to fundamentally reverse the high mortality and disability rates of strokes 2. Discovery, validation, and drug development of potential targets for precise treatment of neurodegenerative diseases 3. Discovery, validation, and drug development of targets (or combinations) that could significantly improve current cancer treatment efficacy 4. Clinical applications of new-generation gene editing technologies 5. Therapeutic applications of RNA interference/mRNA technologies in neurodegenerative diseases, tumors, and infections 6. Clinical applications of new-generation cell therapies 7. Clinical applications of new-generation delivery technologies 8. Clinical applications related to anti-aging mechanisms 9. Application of AI technologies in target discovery and validation based on clinical data 10. Application of AI technologies in predicting clinical efficacy and safety in drug development [1] Group 3: Event Highlights - The meeting attracted two Nobel Prize winners, six academicians from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and nearly 700 leaders from top hospitals and research institutions across the country [2] - The theme of the meeting was "With You, We Dare to Go Far," focusing on collaborative innovation strategies for the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced the "Exploration Plan," committing to invest 2 billion yuan over the next five years to support innovative research in neurology and oncology [1] Group 1: Investment and Research Initiatives - The "Exploration Plan" will leverage the national key laboratory established by the company to foster disruptive innovations in drug development with significant clinical transformation potential [1] - The plan allows for rolling submissions throughout the year, with projects evaluated by the laboratory's principal investigators and authoritative experts in the field [1] - Funding, team support, and resources will be matched to the specific research proposals based on their value, prospects, and interim results [1] Group 2: Research Directions - The plan includes ten key research directions aimed at addressing high mortality and disability rates from strokes, discovering and validating potential targets for neurodegenerative diseases, and enhancing cancer treatment effectiveness [2] - It also focuses on the clinical application of next-generation gene editing technologies, RNA interference/mRNA technologies, and new cell therapy applications [2] - Additional areas of research include the clinical application of new delivery technologies, anti-aging mechanisms, and the use of AI technologies for target discovery and drug development efficacy and safety predictions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.635 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 733 million yuan, up 2.6%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.018 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 41.65% [3][6] - The revenue from innovative drugs reached 4.928 billion yuan, accounting for 74.3% of total revenue, which is the highest since the company's listing [3][6] - The company is set to launch multiple innovative drugs, including Enlitai and Xianbixin, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.635 billion yuan and a net profit of 733 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 1.018 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][8] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.659 billion yuan, 9.073 billion yuan, and 10.493 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.43%, 18.47%, and 15.65% [6][8] Innovative Drug Pipeline - The company has received approval for two new innovative drugs in 2024, expanding its portfolio to a total of eight approved innovative drugs. This includes the anticipated launch of Xianbixin, which is expected to enhance treatment options for stroke patients [4][5] - The innovative drug revenue is expected to continue growing, supported by the inclusion of Koseira and Enlitai in the national medical insurance directory, which will facilitate sales growth [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.43 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [6][8] - The report suggests that the company's valuation is likely to recover as the revenue from innovative drugs increases and multiple new products are launched [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 11.20, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current closing price of HKD 7.52 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance is expected to recover in the second half of 2024, continuing into 2025-2027, driven by the launch of six innovative drugs and ongoing opportunities for business development (BD) abroad [3][7]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 11.20, reflecting optimism about the recovery in performance and valuation correction due to BD catalysts [3][7]. - The company anticipates a revenue and adjusted net profit growth of over 15% in 2025, primarily from new products and increased shareholder returns [7][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 7,637 million, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 1,221 million, reflecting an 11% increase from previous forecasts [6][12]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve to 80.7% in 2025, up from 79.3% in the previous estimate [6]. - The company plans to launch three new products by 2025, contributing to a peak sales potential of RMB 60-80 billion from the six new products by 2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 18,697.13 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 8.42 and a low of HKD 5.12 [5]. - The report highlights a strong cash return rate of over 6% based on current stock prices, supported by dividends and share buybacks totaling RMB 10.9 billion [7]. - The company's innovative drug revenue has increased its contribution to total revenue, enhancing overall profitability [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised the target price for Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) to HKD 11.2, continuing to recommend it as a key industry stock due to optimistic profit margin improvements and expected performance recovery from 2H24 onwards [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects strong growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, with projections of a 0.4% increase in revenue to RMB 6.64 billion and a 42% increase in adjusted net profit to RMB 1.02 billion, aligning with previous forecasts [2] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in 2H24, with expected growth rates of 9% in revenue and 48% in adjusted net profit compared to 1H24 [2] - The contribution of innovative drug revenue is projected to rise to RMB 4.9 billion, increasing its share of total revenue by 2.3 percentage points to 74.3% [2] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has successfully licensed out its BCMA/GPRC5D/CD3 tri-antibody to AbbVie for over USD 1 billion, indicating strong international collaboration [3] - The company is advancing its product development pipeline, with plans to initiate multiple Phase Ib clinical trials for IL-2muFc in 2025 [3] - The company is leveraging its innovative technology platforms, including dual-target TCE and ADC, to create more business development opportunities, with several products expected to enter IND by 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management expects revenue and adjusted net profit to grow by over 15% in 2025, driven by new products and increased shareholder returns [2] - The company anticipates the launch of six new products, which could generate peak sales of RMB 6-8 billion collectively [2]