创新管线持续推进，对外授权进展顺利。1H25 公司实现2 个产品对外授权（分别为GPRC5D-BCMA- CD3 三抗授权给Abbive 以及CDH6-ADC 授权给NextCure），2 个产品获批上市（达利雷生及苏维西塔 单抗NMPA 获批），2 款产品递交NDA（玛氘诺沙韦及乐德奇拜单抗）。公司早期研发在肿瘤领域聚焦 ADC/TCE/小分子平台，非肿瘤领域聚焦靶向多个炎症通路，多款产品具备对外授权潜力，我们看好对 外授权合作成为公司收入可持续增长来源。 盈利预测与估值 考虑创新药商业化进展顺利，我们上调2025/2026 核心净利润6%/10%至12.52 亿元/14.27 亿元。当前股 价对应2025/2026 年23.8 倍/20.0 倍经调市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑板块估值中枢上行，我们上调 目标价32.8%至17.00 港元，对应31.6/27.8 倍2025/2026 年经调市盈率，隐含33.1%的上行空间。 风险 机构：中金公司 研究员：俞波/陈诗雨/张琎 1H25 业绩超出市场预期 公司公布1H25 业绩：收入35.85 亿元，同比增长15.1%；归母净利润6.04 亿元，同比增长32 ...

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 3.57%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.03 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 CITIC first-level industry indices [5] - The top ten stocks by increase this week include: Seer Medical (51.55%), Guangsheng Tang (48.64%), Shenzhou Cell (45.01%), and others [5][30] - The top ten stocks by decrease include: Linuo Medical (-5.73%), New Ganjing (-5.53%), ST Zhongzhu (-4.79%), and others [5][30] Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is low, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry growth in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors and the driving effect of major categories [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of products that can generate profits. Companies with differentiated domestic and international pipelines are recommended for attention [9] - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is benefiting from subsidy policies. Companies in this space are expected to see growth [9][16] - The innovation chain (CXO + life science services) is expected to see a recovery in overseas investment and a bottoming out in domestic investment, leading to a new wave of innovation [9] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in the specialty raw materials sector, which is currently at a near ten-year low in valuation [9][22] Industry and Company Events - The blood products sector is expected to grow significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a loosening of plasma station approvals and an increase in product variety and capacity [12] - The IVD market, particularly in chemical luminescence, is projected to grow rapidly, with domestic brands increasing their market share due to accelerated domestic substitution [14] - The medical device market is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by a recovery in procurement and the introduction of new products [16] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the acceleration of prescription outflow and an improved competitive landscape, with a focus on chain pharmacies [12][20] - The life science services sector is recovering, with an increase in demand from both domestic and overseas markets, and a trend towards consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [21] Earnings Forecast for Q2 2025 - Companies such as Maipu Medical and Bide Pharmaceutical are expected to see revenue growth rates of around 30% and 20%+, respectively, in Q2 2025 [11] - The medical device sector is projected to have varied growth rates, with companies like Mindray Medical expected to experience a decline, while others like Huayi Medical are expected to see stable growth [11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies in the neuro-interventional and peripheral interventional sectors that are benefiting from procurement policies and have a comprehensive product lineup [19] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is recommended for investment due to the expected acceleration of prescription outflow and improved competitive dynamics [20] - Companies in the life science services sector are advised for attention due to the anticipated recovery in demand and the potential for high profit elasticity as they enter the return on investment phase [21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.96%, down 232 points, closing at 23,989 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.20% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 130.6 billion in the morning session [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating that innovative drugs remain a key investment theme [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index surged by 2.79% [1] - Ascentage Pharma-B (06855) rose by 8%, Kelun-Biotech (06990) increased by 7%, and Zai Lab (09688) gained 5.21% [1] - Kangfang Biotech (09926) saw a rise of over 11% as its first dual-antibody ADC drug AK146D1 entered clinical enrollment [2] - Innovent Biologics (01801) increased by over 6% following the approval of its drug Ma Shidu Peptide for commercialization [3] - CStone Pharmaceuticals-B (02616) rose by over 11% after disclosing two dual-specific antibody drug targets, CS2013 and CS2015 [4] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096) gained 4.43% after its new generation anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody "Suvetizumab" was approved for market [5] Group 3: Other Sectors - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Macau's June gaming revenue exceeding expectations, and Citigroup predicts growth momentum will continue in the second half of the year [5] - MGM China (02282) increased by 2.6%, and Melco International Development (00200) rose by 1.75% [5] - Wheelock Properties (01997) gained 7.32% as Hong Kong's retail sales value rebounded in May, leading Morgan Stanley to upgrade the company's rating [5] - Global New Material International (06616) rose by over 5% as the acquisition of Merck's surface solutions business is nearing completion [6] - Giant Star Legend (06683) increased by over 3% after its subsidiary invested USD 8 million in the Starlight New Economy Industry Fund [7] - Kingsoft (03888) fell nearly 7% as its new game "Unrestricted Machine" entered public testing, with market attention on its performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096), with a target price of HKD 14.3, and continues to recommend it as a key focus in the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report has raised the profit forecast for the company for the years 2025-2027 by 6-11% and is optimistic about the potential for more overseas transactions in the short term, particularly focusing on targets such as CDH6 and CDH17, which have recently garnered significant attention [1]. - At the ASCO 2025 conference, the company's oncology pipeline showcased 18 research studies. Key studies to watch include: 1. The final analysis of overall survival (OS) in a Phase III study of Suviscita monoclonal antibody for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, with median OS of 15.3 months for the treatment group compared to 14 months for the control group, with approval expected within the year [1]. 2. The results of an Ib phase study on SIM0270 combined with Palbociclib for second-line or higher ER+/HER2- breast cancer, showing an overall response rate (ORR) of 41.5% and clinical benefit rate (CBR) of 82.5%, with rates of 87.5% and 100% respectively in baseline ESR1 mutation patients. The company is currently conducting a Phase III study to evaluate the efficacy of SIM0270 combined with Everolimus in CDK4/6 inhibitor-treated ER+/HER2- breast cancer [1].

Group 1 - The company has presented excellent data on potential blockbuster products such as Suvisetant monoclonal antibody, oral SERD, and multiple ADCs at an international academic conference, which is expected to drive more overseas transactions and enhance product recognition among patients and doctors post-launch [1][2] - At the ASCO 2025 conference, the company showcased 18 research studies in its oncology pipeline, highlighting key products like Suvisetant and SIM0270 [2] - The final analysis of the OS for Suvisetant in treating platinum-resistant ovarian cancer showed median OS of 15.3 months for the treatment group compared to 14.0 months for the control group, indicating a potential advantage over Bevacizumab [2] Group 2 - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for innovative drugs and potential collaboration income based on the positive clinical data, leading to an increase in the target price to HKD 14.3 [3] - The sales revenue forecast for Dalirelix has also been increased due to the recent approval of a similar product, which is expected to expand market opportunities significantly [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 6-11%, reflecting an increase in the proportion of high-margin collaboration income [3]