WEST CHINA CEMENT(02233)

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水泥行业反内卷:过去,现在和未来
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-19 07:46
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The necessity for "anti-involution" in the cement industry remains, with a competitive landscape characterized by high concentration and state-owned enterprise dominance [1][12] - The cement industry is experiencing a significant oversupply, with a projected capacity utilization rate of only 53% in 2024, indicating a need for supply-side reforms to reduce actual capacity [3][22] - Short-term measures such as peak-shifting production will continue to support the industry, while medium-term strategies will focus on administrative measures to limit overproduction [4][30] Summary by Sections Supply Structure - The cement industry is primarily led by state-owned enterprises, with a concentration ratio (CR10) of 57% and an expected state-owned enterprise capacity share of around 45% in 2024 [1][12] - The top ten cement companies include four state-owned enterprises, which collectively hold about 71% of the capacity, facilitating coordinated efforts to stabilize prices and enhance efficiency [12][1] Industry Profitability - The industry is projected to achieve a total profit of 260 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of approximately 4.1%, although this represents an 86% decline from the peak levels seen in previous years [16][20] - The worst period in early 2024 saw over 55% of companies reporting losses, but a recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, with profits expected to reach 150-160 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [20][16] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total cement supply has peaked at around 1.81 billion tons, but demand continues to decline, leading to a significant oversupply issue [22][3] - The expected demand bottom is estimated to be between 1.2 to 1.5 billion tons, indicating a potential decline of 18% to 34% from 2024 levels [22][3] Review of Previous Supply-Side Reforms - Previous reforms included a ban on new capacity and the promotion of peak-shifting production, which successfully reduced new clinker capacity additions from a billion-ton level to a few million tons [2][26] - The industry's profit recovery from 518 billion yuan in 2016 to a historical high of 1867 billion yuan in 2019 was largely due to these reforms [2][29] Future Anti-Involution Strategies - The future governance of "anti-involution" will involve a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, with a strong emphasis on reducing excess capacity through administrative controls [4][30] - The carbon trading policy expected to be implemented by 2027 will further pressure high-emission capacities to exit the market, promoting a shift towards more efficient production methods [33][35]
周观点:AI材料行情继续扩散,传统建材进入提价旺季-20250818
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-18 06:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly in AI materials and traditional building materials entering a price increase season [1][3]. Core Insights - The AI materials market continues to expand, driven by the anticipation of mass production in the AI industry chain, which is expected to boost demand for related products [2][3]. - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with consumption fundamentals expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [10][24]. - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with price increases already observed in the Yangtze River Delta region [30][33]. Summary by Sections AI Materials - The M9 production for switches is expected to ramp up ahead of schedule, with core Q fabric suppliers also increasing production capacity [2]. - The demand for low dielectric fabrics is anticipated to rise alongside the production of GB200 and GB300 cabinets [2][3]. - The overall production ramp-up is seen as a key support for market trends [2]. Cement Industry - The opening of major infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet is expected to enhance market confidence and drive demand for cement [8][30]. - The cement market has seen a slight price increase, with certain regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 RMB per ton [33][34]. - The report highlights a potential supply reduction in the North China region due to planned production cuts for air quality improvement [32][33]. Building Materials - The report notes a significant policy shift in Beijing aimed at stimulating the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact consumption building materials [10][24]. - Companies in the consumption building materials sector are beginning to stabilize their earnings, with expectations of improved profitability in the coming quarters [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost management and pricing strategies among leading companies in the sector [25][26]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is currently facing price pressures, with average prices declining [41][42]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, which may lead to increased costs for glass manufacturers [42][43]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market challenges, with a focus on profitability in their automotive glass segment [44].
西部水泥(02233) - 完成主要出售事项及关连交易出售新疆的公司及资產
2025-08-15 11:54
香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 佈 的 內 容 概 不 負 責,對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或 任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 WEST CHINA CEMENT LIMITED 中 國 西 部 水 泥 有 限 公 司 (於澤西註冊成立的有限公司,註冊編號94796) (股份代號:2233) 完成主要出售事項及關連交易 出售新疆的公司及資產 茲提述(i)中國西部水泥有限公司(「本公司」)日期為二零二五年六月二十五日的公 佈及通函(「該通函」);及(ii)本公司日期為二零二五年八月十四日有關出售事項之 投票結果及最新進展公佈。除非文義另有所指,本公佈所用詞彙與該通函所界定 者具有相同涵義。 董事會欣然宣佈,出售事項已於二零二五年八月十五日根據股權轉讓協議及資產 購買協議各自之條款完成。 完成股權轉讓協議後,目標公司不再為本公司的附屬公司,並且其財務資料將不 再於本集團帳目內綜合計算。此外,完成資產購買協議後,相關目標資產已轉讓 予各資產購買協議的各資產買方。 承董事會 ...
西部水泥(02233) - 董事会会议日期
2025-08-14 12:01
董事會會議日期 中國西部水泥有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)謹此宣佈,本公司將於二零 二五年八月二十五日( 星期一 )下午一時舉行董事會會議,以(i)考慮及批准本公司 及 其 附 屬 公 司 截 至 二 零 二 五 年 六 月 三 十 日 止 六 個 月 的 中 期 財 務 業 績 及 其 公 佈 ; 及(ii)考慮派發中期股息( 如有 )。 香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 佈 的 內 容 概 不 負 責,對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或 任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 WEST CHINA CEMENT LIMITED 中 國 西 部 水 泥 有 限 公 司 (於澤西註冊成立的有限公司,註冊編號94796) (股份代號:2233) 香港,二零二五年八月十四日 於本公佈日期,執行董事為張繼民先生、曹建順先生、楚宇峰先生及王蕊女士; 非執行董事為馬朝陽先生、汪志新先生及汪滿波先生;及獨立非執行董事為李港 衛先生、譚競正先生、朱東先生、馮濤先生及樓家強先生。 承 ...
西部水泥(02233) - (1)於二零二五年八月十四日举行的股东特别大会投票结果;及(2)有关出售...
2025-08-14 11:06
WEST CHINA CEMENT LIMITED 中 國 西 部 水 泥 有 限 公 司 香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 佈 的 內 容 概 不 負 責,對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或 任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 (於澤西註冊成立的有限公司,註冊編號94796) (股份代號:2233) (1)於二零二五年八月十四日舉行的 股東特別大會投票結果;及 (2)有關出售新疆的公司及資產之 主要出售事項及關連交易的 最新進展 茲提述中國西部水泥有限公司(「本公司」)日期為二零二五年七月二十五日的通函 (「通函」)及股東特別大會(「股東特別大會」)通告(「通告」)及本公司日期為二零二 五年八月十四日有關延遲股東特別大會公佈。除另有界定者外,本公佈所用詞彙 應與通函所界定者具有相同涵義。 於二零二五年八月十四日舉行的股東特別大會投票結果 董事會欣然宣佈,於二零二五年八月十四日舉行的股東特別大會上,通告所載之 建議決議案(「普通決議案」)已以投票表決方式正式通過。 – 1 – ...
西部水泥(02233) - 因恶劣天气延迟股东特别大会
2025-08-14 04:03
香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 佈 的 內 容 概 不 負 責,對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或 任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 WEST CHINA CEMENT LIMITED 中 國 西 部 水 泥 有 限 公 司 (於澤西註冊成立的有限公司,註冊編號94796) (股份代號:2233) 香港,二零二五年八月十四日 於本公佈日期,執行董事為張繼民先生、曹建順先生、楚宇峰先生及王蕊女士; 非執行董事為馬朝陽先生、汪志新先生及汪滿波先生;及獨立非執行董事為李港 衛先生、譚競正先生、朱東先生、馮濤先生及樓家強先生。 – 2 – 茲提述中國西部水泥有限公司(「本公司」)日期為二零二五年七月二十五日的通函 (「通函」)以及本公司於同日的股東特別大會通告(「通告」)。除文義另有所指外, 本公佈所用詞匯與通函所界定者具有相同涵義。 根據通告,股東特別大會訂於二零二五年八月十四日( 星期四 )上午十時正假座香 港 中 環 法 院道 太 古 廣 場 港 島 香 格 里拉 大 酒 ...
水泥、民爆板块望受益新藏铁路等重点工程,持续看好高端电子布基本面量价齐升
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-12 06:13
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The cement and explosives sector is expected to benefit from key projects such as the New Tibet Railway, with a continuous positive outlook on the fundamentals of high-end electronic fabrics, which are seeing both volume and price increases [2][15] - Recent data shows that the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.2645 million square meters, down 13.04% year-on-year, indicating a decline in real estate demand [15] - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is anticipated to benefit local cement and explosives companies [15] - Current cement prices in many regions have reached or fallen below cost lines, and with rising coal prices, companies are facing increased profit pressures [2][18] - If industry self-discipline measures are effectively implemented, cement prices are expected to begin a recovery trend [2][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of August 4 to August 10, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.2%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 2.1%, with ceramics and cement sectors performing particularly well [12][18] - Notable stock performances included Zhenan Technology (+19.8%), ST Sansheng (+16.3%), and Tianshan Shares (+10.9%) [12] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: The national cement market price remained stable, with slight adjustments in specific regions. The average shipment rate for major regions was around 44% [18] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market showed slight price increases, with the main order prices for 2.0mm coated panels rising by 2.38% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarns remained weak, with average prices declining by 2.06% compared to the previous week [19] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Qingsong Jianhua, Gaozheng Minbao, Xibu Cement, Huaxin Cement, Honghe Technology, and Zhongcai Technology, indicating a favorable outlook for these stocks in the current market environment [20]
水泥股普遍活跃,重大项目持续推进,机构称“反内卷”大背景下价格易涨难跌
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 07:28
8月11日消息,水泥股普遍活跃,截至发稿,涨近10%,涨近5%,涨近4%,涨超3%。 消息面上,近日,新藏铁路有限公司成立,注册资本950亿人民币,经营范围含建设工程施工、建设工 程监理、铁路运输基础设备制造等,由中国国家铁路集团有限公司全资持股。中信证券指出,新藏铁路 公司成立,重大项目持续推进。根据水泥网,按每公里2万吨水泥测算,新藏铁路预计将带动水泥需求 约4000万吨,若分8年建设,年均需求约500万吨。有望显著拉动新疆和西藏地区的水泥消费增长。 此外,中泰证券认为,「反内卷」大背景下易涨难跌。本周全国水泥市场价格整体趋稳,环比持平。其 中河南地区价格小幅上调20元/吨,而内蒙古地区下调20元/吨。八月初,受持续高温和降雨天气影响, 全国水泥市场需求延续低迷态势,重点地区水泥企业平均出货率在44%左右。价格方面,当前多数区域 水泥价格已触及或跌破成本线,叠加煤炭价格持续走高,企业盈利压力进一步加大。为缓解经营压力, 长三角、湖北、湖南及川渝等地区企业正在就错峰生产方案展开积极磋商,若后续行业自律措施有效落 实,水泥价格将开启恢复性上调走势。 编辑/melody | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌 ...
港股异动 水泥股普遍活跃 重大项目持续推进 机构称“反内卷”大背景下价格易涨难跌
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-11 07:16
水泥股普遍活跃,截至发稿,西部水泥(02233)涨4.89%,报2.36港元;海螺水泥(00914)涨3.69%,报 24.74港元;华润建材科技(01313)涨3.14%,报1.97港元;华新水泥(06655)涨0.86%,报14港元。 消息面上,近日,新藏铁路有限公司成立,注册资本950亿人民币,经营范围含建设工程施工、建设工 程监理、铁路运输基础设备制造等,由中国国家铁路集团有限公司全资持股。中信证券指出,新藏铁路 公司成立,重大项目持续推进。根据水泥网,按每公里2万吨水泥测算,新藏铁路预计将带动水泥需求 约4000万吨,若分8年建设,年均需求约500万吨。有望显著拉动新疆和西藏地区的水泥消费增长。 此外,中泰证券认为,"反内卷"大背景下易涨难跌。本周全国水泥市场价格整体趋稳,环比持平。其中 河南地区价格小幅上调20元/吨,而内蒙古地区下调20元/吨。八月初,受持续高温和降雨天气影响,全 国水泥市场需求延续低迷态势,重点地区水泥企业平均出货率在44%左右。价格方面,当前多数区域水 泥价格已触及或跌破成本线,叠加煤炭价格持续走高,企业盈利压力进一步加大。为缓解经营压力,长 三角、湖北、湖南及川渝等地区企业 ...
港股异动 | 水泥股普遍活跃 重大项目持续推进 机构称“反内卷”大背景下价格易涨难跌
智通财经网· 2025-08-11 06:28
Group 1 - Cement stocks are generally active, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Western Cement (+4.89%), Conch Cement (+3.69%), China Resources Cement Technology (+3.14%), and Huaxin Cement (+0.86%) [1] - The establishment of Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Co., with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, is expected to significantly boost cement demand, estimated at around 40 million tons over the project's duration, translating to an average annual demand of approximately 5 million tons if constructed over 8 years [1] Group 2 - The national cement market prices are stabilizing, with a slight increase of 20 RMB/ton in Henan and a decrease of 20 RMB/ton in Inner Mongolia [2] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is around 44%, indicating continued low demand due to adverse weather conditions [2] - Many regions are discussing staggered production plans to alleviate operational pressures, which could lead to a potential recovery in cement prices if self-regulatory measures are effectively implemented [2]