值得一提的是，6月25日，西部水泥发布公告称，将以总价16.5亿元将其位于新疆的水泥及相关资产出 售给海螺水泥（600585），并计划将所得款项用于偿还优先票据及支持海外扩张。 海外水泥销量大涨 水泥是国民经济建设的重要基础原材料。据了解，近年来中国水泥行业不断向高端化、智能化、绿色化 发展，技术、装备、管理、服务等各方面的能力受到了国际市场的认可。 截至2024年底，中国企业累计在21个境外国家投资建设了49条水泥熟料生产线，已投产项目合计熟料产 能6828万吨，水泥产能9820万吨。 中国水泥行业先进产能加速"出海"，助力满足全球基础设施建设需求，也促进了自身业绩增长。 7月23日，西部水泥发布的公告显示，公司预计上半年归母净利润约6.96亿元至7.74亿元，较上年同期 3.87亿元增幅约为80%至100%。 西部水泥介绍，公司海外水泥销量2024年上半年约为116万吨，2025年上半年约为380万吨，同比增加约 230%，带动海外水泥收益约为18.81亿元，大大超出公司上年同期收益9.23亿元，增幅约为104%。 7月23日，西部水泥发布公告称，公司预计上半年归母净利润约6.96亿元至7.74亿元，较上 ...

Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, GUOTJU priced 3yr floating rated bond at SOFR+60 (IPT at SOFR+115). In KR, DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26-30s were 1-2bps wider. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2-4bps. In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28-35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31-40s tightened 2-4bps. NANYAN/BNKEA 30-34s tightened 2-3bps. In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34-35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54-55s ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | | 国企指数 | 9279.40 | +0.41% | | 800100 | | | | 恒生指数 | 25688.87 | +0.59% | | 800000 | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 5780.04 | +0.60% | | 800700 | | | 芯片股走强，华虹半导体涨超6%。SEMI在报告中指出，2025年全球原始设备制造商（OEM）的半导体 制造设备总销售额预计将创下1255亿美元的新纪录，同比增长7.4%。天风证券认为，综合来看2025 年，全球半导体增长延续乐观增长走势，2025年AI驱下游增长。 7月24日消息，港股三大指数低开高走。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.59%，报25688.87点，恒生科技指 数涨0.6%，国企指数涨0.41%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，联想集团涨超2%，美团涨超1%，百度、网 易跌超2%；芯片股走强，华虹半导体涨超6%；锂电池概念多股大涨，天齐锂业涨超15%；雅下水电相 关概念回暖，建材水泥股活跃，西部水泥涨超16%；中资券商股走高，中州证券涨超5%；黄金股回 调，潼关黄金跌 ...

港股建材水泥股持续冲高，西部水泥(02233.HK)涨超10%，华新水泥(06655.HK)涨超5%，山水水泥 (00691.HK)涨超3%。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects its profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to increase between approximately RMB 696 million and RMB 774 million, compared to RMB 387 million for the same period in 2024, representing a growth of about 80% to 100% [1] - The primary reasons for this expected increase are a significant rise in overseas cement sales and an increase in gross profit from cement sales in China [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with strong earnings forecasts for companies like China National Materials and China Jushi, driven by wind power demand and AI applications [6][10] - The cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Glass Fiber - The mid-year earnings forecast for glass fiber is optimistic, with China National Materials expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 670-830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186-254% [6] - China Jushi's net profit is projected to be around 1.65-1.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163-171% [6] - The demand for ordinary glass fiber remains under pressure, while special electronic fabrics are experiencing accelerated growth due to the AI wave [6][10] Cement - Cement prices have continued to decline, with average prices at 352.74 yuan per ton, down 0.65 yuan month-on-month and 45.32 yuan year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is 43%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [27] - There are plans for price increases in certain regions as prices approach bottom levels [27] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices are stable, with slight increases in some areas, and overall demand remains cautious [9][41] - The production capacity utilization rate for the float glass industry is at 82.09%, with a total of 283 production lines [9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 5.734 million weight boxes, down 97,000 weight boxes month-on-month [9][41] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Keda Manufacturing as key players [10] - It also suggests that the demand for building materials is expected to rise, particularly in the renovation sector, benefiting companies with strong business models [10]

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are WuXi AppTec (22.57%), CATL (17.76%), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (14.27%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute increase in short positions are Alibaba Health (4.45%), China Liansu (2.54%), and Hong Kong Travel (2.02%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute decrease in short positions are Far East Horizon (-1.62%), ZhongAn Online (-1.55%), and Rongchang Biologics (-1.32%) [1][3] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that WuXi AppTec has 87.35 million shares, CATL has 27.69 million shares, and COSCO Shipping Holdings has 411 million shares [2] - Alibaba Health's short position increased from 6.97% to 11.42%, while China Liansu's increased from 0.61% to 3.15% [2] - Far East Horizon's short position decreased from 4.43% to 2.82%, and ZhongAn Online's decreased from 7.43% to 5.88% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three potential paths for the construction materials industry to counteract "involution," aiming to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. These paths include limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing production capacity, and constraining current output [6][7] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in cement prices and a decrease in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand environment [8] - Recommendations include focusing on special glass fiber and the African supply chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main investment focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for the construction materials industry to adapt to economic pressures through various strategies to manage supply and demand effectively [6][7] Market Performance - Cement prices have continued to decline, with the national average price dropping by 1.2% due to weak market demand and production issues [8][25] - The average cement price is reported at 353.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.13% [25] Recommendations - Special glass fiber is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in companies like China National Materials Technology, which is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [9] - The African supply chain is also recommended, with companies like Keda Manufacturing showing strong performance in niche markets [9] Demand Trends - The report notes a significant decline in real estate transaction volumes, with a 17% year-on-year decrease in new home sales across 30 major cities [8] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a shift towards existing inventory products, driven by improved demand in the second-hand housing market and urban renovation policies [9]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the building materials industry is expected to return to historical high demand levels due to the emergence of stock demand, with a significant shift towards consumption characteristics of building materials [4][7][22] - The residential renovation demand currently accounts for nearly 50% and is projected to reach around 70% by 2030, indicating a qualitative change in consumption demand for building materials [7][22][23] - The report highlights the potential of African markets for capacity expansion, identifying undervalued local leaders such as Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and Western Cement [4][9][10] Group 2: Stock Chain Insights - The stock category is seen as a cyclical demand segment that can emerge positively, with a significant supply exit in consumer building materials due to the deep adjustment in the real estate sector [7][47] - The report predicts that by 2024, production levels for various building materials will be at approximately 90% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum board, and 62% for waterproofing materials compared to their peak levels [7][47][50] - The report suggests that the supply exit in consumer building materials is thorough, driven by the expansion of leading enterprises' advantages and changes in demand structure [7][47][50] Group 3: African Chain Insights - Africa is identified as a fertile ground for the export of building materials, driven by population growth and urbanization, with local leaders like Keda Manufacturing benefiting from market share advantages [9][10] - Keda Manufacturing holds a 20% market share in the ceramic tile market in Central Africa, with a net profit margin recovering to over 20% in Q1 2025 [9][10] Group 4: Domestic Substitution Chain Insights - The report highlights the opportunities for domestic substitution in building materials, particularly in specialty fiberglass and industrial coatings, driven by the transformation goals of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [10][10] - Key players in specialty fiberglass, such as China National Building Material, are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [10][10]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to benefit from the improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand, with a long-term view of continuous optimization in supply structure. Recommended companies include Shengfeng Cement, Tapai Group, Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Tibet Tianlu [20][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.92% [2][15] - The cement price has recently hit a low, with the average price in East China down by 17 CNY/ton year-on-year, indicating potential for price rebound due to the implementation of price coordination mechanisms [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 3.63%. Notable stock performances include Yamaton (+34.9%), Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%), and Kaisheng New Energy (+19.6%) [12][14] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: The national cement market price fell by 1.3% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 42% due to weak demand [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market saw a general decline in new orders, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels down by 2.27% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn remains stable, with prices holding steady at around 3669 CNY/ton [19] Long-term Value of Traditional Building Materials - The report emphasizes that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials like carbon fiber are expected to see sustained growth due to high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21]