申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 纺织服装 | 公司研究 23H2 毛利率环比改善，业绩拐点信号显现 2024年3月27日 申洲国际 (2313.HK) 买入 公司发布2023年业绩公告，业绩符合预期。23年实现营收250亿元，同比下滑10.1%，归母净 利润45.6亿元，同比下滑0.1%，主要受欧美运动类产品消费需求不足及客户去库存的影响。其中， 维持 23H2实现营收134亿元，同比下滑5.5%，归母净利润24.3亿元，同比增长10.7%，业绩环比上 半年改善，下半年随订单逐步回暖，收入降幅收窄、利润改善程度更高。拟派发末期股息每股1.08 港元，此前已派发中期股息每股0.95港元，23年累计派息每股2.03港元，派息比率达60.3%。 市场数据：2024年3月27日 欧美运动类产品需求暂下滑，内衣品类及新客户贡献提升。1）分品类：内衣类产品收入增速最高。 收盘价（港币） 72.70 23年，运动类产品收入180亿元，同比下滑13.6%，营收占比72.2%，主要系欧美客户处于去库 恒生中国企业指数 5,72 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue due to inventory destocking by European and American brand clients, with a 10.12% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 24.97 billion RMB in 2023. However, net profit remained stable at 4.557 billion RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [2][4][6] - The gross margin improved to 24.27%, up 2.22 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to increased capacity utilization and enhanced efficiency of overseas factories [3][6] - The company is transitioning towards a green low-carbon production model, with approximately 50% of its electricity sourced from green energy as of the end of 2023 [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 24.97 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.12% year-on-year, while net profit was 4.557 billion RMB, showing a marginal increase of 0.12% [4][5] - The sales net profit margin was 18.25%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points from 2022, and the gross margin was 24.27%, up 2.22 percentage points [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - By product category, revenue from sports products was 18.032 billion RMB, down 13.6% year-on-year, while leisure products generated 5.673 billion RMB, down 1.4%. The lingerie segment saw a 30.2% increase to 1.067 billion RMB [2][4] - Geographically, revenue from Europe and the US declined significantly, with decreases of 19.1% and 20.4%, respectively, while domestic market revenue increased by 0.7% to 7.124 billion RMB [2][3] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 15% in 2024, reaching 28.83 billion RMB, with net profit projected to increase by 17% to 5.337 billion RMB [6][7] - The report highlights the potential for order recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by brand client expansion and improved operational efficiency in overseas factories [5][6]

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研究报告称，予申洲国际(02313)“买入”评级，将2024年至2025年的每股盈利预测上调3%至4%，并将目标价由102港元上调至108港元。 报告中称，公司2023年业绩的营业收入低于市场普遍预测，不过同一时间公司归属利润符合预期，受毛利率超出预期所带动。该行认为，公司于今年内可实现双位数的销售增长，主要受惠于去年的低基数效应；加上除了Nike以外，所有主要全球及国内品牌订单均录得双位数增长的表现。 此外，花旗预期申洲今年的营业收入成长率为12%，并指公司自去年第四季开始已恢复正增长，预计相关表现在今年第一季仍可维持。该行预期公司今年的毛利率将进一步上调3.5%至27.8%，而且相信未来派息率将维持于60%以上。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The company's 2023 profits met expectations, and the outlook for 2024 is optimistic with a strong recovery in orders anticipated [5]. - The company is expected to see continued growth driven by overseas capacity expansion and the acquisition of new customers and product categories [5]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue was 24.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.56 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.1% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 24.3%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased to 18.3%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 5.65 billion, 6.55 billion, and 7.31 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [5][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 61.95 and 86.15 HKD over the past 52 weeks [4]. - The current market capitalization is 98.91 billion HKD with 1.503 billion shares outstanding [4]. Order Recovery and Customer Performance - The company anticipates a recovery in orders for 2024, with expected sales growth in the double digits, particularly from key clients like Uniqlo and Nike [5]. - The first major client, Nike, showed a significant improvement in orders, with revenue increasing by 22% in H1 2023 and 1% in H2 2023 [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from improved capacity utilization and a strong recovery in orders, with a positive outlook for profit recovery [5].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 申洲国际（02313.HK） 2023 年业绩点评：下半年收入降幅收窄，24 年展 2024 年 03月 28日 望积极 买入（维持） 证券分析师 李婕 执业证书：S0600521120003 [盈Ta利bl预e_测EP与S]估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E lijie@dwzq.com.cn 营业总收入（百万元） 27,781 24,970 28,560 32,650 36,634 证券分析师 赵艺原 同比 16.51% -10.12% 14.38% 14.32% 12.20% 执业证书：S0600522090003 归母净利润（百万元） 4,563 4,557 5,574 6,403 7,274 同比 35.33% -0.12% 22.31% 14.87% 13.60% zhaoyy@dwzq.com.cn EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 3.04 3.03 3.71 4.26 4.84 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 22.22 22.24 18.19 15.83 13.94 股价走势 [ [TT aab bl le e_ _T S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (2313 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 116.00, indicating a potential upside of 76.3% from the current price of HKD 65.80 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong order growth and full capacity utilization across all factories, suggesting a robust outlook for 2024. Despite a 10.1% year-on-year decline in sales for 2023, net profit remained stable at RMB 4.557 billion, aligning with market expectations. The second half of 2023 saw a narrowing of sales decline from -15% in the first half to -5.5% [1][5]. - The management anticipates a sales increase of no less than 15% year-on-year for 2024, with an average selling price growth of 1-2% in USD. Key clients such as Uniqlo, Adidas, and Puma are expected to see order growth exceeding 10%, while new clients like Lululemon may experience a 40-50% increase in orders [1][5]. - The report projects a gross margin improvement, estimating it to reach 28-29% in Q1 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and a recovery in orders [1][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Shenzhou International reported revenues of RMB 24,970 million, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with a projected recovery to RMB 30,008 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 20.2% [4][8]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 4,557 million, with earnings per share (EPS) remaining stable at RMB 3.03. The forecast for 2024 anticipates an EPS increase to RMB 4.57, representing a growth of 50.8% [4][8]. - The dividend payout ratio increased to 60.3%, with a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2023, and is expected to maintain a high payout ratio in the coming years [1][5].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a current price of HKD 72.7 [2] Core Views - Despite a 10.1% YoY decline in revenue in 2023, the company's net profit remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1% YoY to RMB 4.557 billion [5] - The company's gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 24.3% in 2023, driven by increased efficiency in overseas factories and reduced fixed costs per unit [6] - The company's net cash assets after deducting borrowings reached RMB 11.438 billion at the end of 2023, indicating strong financial health and risk resistance [8] - The company expects order improvements and profitability recovery in 2024, with capacity utilization returning to full production levels in Q1 2024 [9] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 24.97 billion, down 10.1% YoY, primarily due to reduced demand in European and American markets and customer inventory adjustments [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.557 billion, down 0.1% YoY, with a net profit margin of 18.3%, up 1.8 percentage points YoY [5] - EPS for 2023 was RMB 3.03, with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 60.3% [5] - Revenue from sportswear and casual wear declined by 13.6% and 1.4% YoY, respectively, while revenue from underwear increased by 30.2% YoY [5] Geographic and Customer Breakdown - Domestic sales accounted for 28.5% of total revenue, growing 0.7% YoY, while sales in Europe and the US declined by 19.1% and 20.4% YoY, respectively [6] - The top four customers (adidas, Nike, Uniqlo, and Puma) accounted for 79.6% of total revenue, down 2.4 percentage points YoY, with their combined revenue declining by 12.8% YoY [6] Operational Efficiency and Financial Health - The company's overseas factories contributed 53% of total garment output in 2023, up 7 percentage points YoY, with Cambodia accounting for 26% of total output [8] - Inventory turnover days increased by 11 days to 120 days, while accounts receivable turnover days increased by 17 days to 73 days [7] - Operating cash flow increased by 12.9% YoY to RMB 5.227 billion in 2023 [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its workforce in 2024, adding approximately 2,000 workers in Ningbo and Vietnam, and exploring new regional layouts beyond Vietnam and Cambodia [9] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow in 2024, with projected EPS of RMB 3.71, 4.29, and 4.90 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 18x for 2024 and 15x for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Shenzhou International, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the next six months [3][7]. Core Views - The revenue decline in the second half of 2023 has narrowed, with a sequential improvement in profits. The company reported a total revenue of 24.97 billion HKD for 2023, down 10.1% year-on-year, but the second half revenue was 13.41 billion HKD, down only 5.5% year-on-year and up 16% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - Profitability improved in the second half of 2023 due to increased production capacity in overseas factories and a rise in core customer order volumes. The gross profit for the second half was 3.46 billion HKD, up 13.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.8% [6][7]. - The company has a strong competitive position as the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer in China, with key clients including Nike and Adidas. The report suggests that the current valuation offers good value for investors [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.56 billion HKD, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 18.3% [5][6]. - The report projects net profits for 2024 and 2025 to be 5.35 billion HKD and 6.17 billion HKD, respectively, with an expected net profit of 7.10 billion HKD in 2026 [7][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 3.03 HKD, with projections of 3.56 HKD for 2024 and 4.11 HKD for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 10.1% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue reaching 24.97 billion yuan. However, the net profit remained relatively stable, decreasing only by 0.1% to 4.557 billion yuan [3][4] - The company’s sales gross margin improved in the second half of 2023, driven by increased efficiency in overseas factories and a rise in production capacity utilization [6][5] - The company is expected to benefit from its vertical integration in fabric and garment production, which is anticipated to enhance profitability in the long term [6] Market Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenues of 24.97 billion yuan, with a breakdown of 11.562 billion yuan in H1 and 13.408 billion yuan in H2, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.9% and 5.5% respectively [1] - The company’s core product lines include sportswear, casual wear, and underwear, with sportswear revenue declining by 13.6% and underwear revenue increasing by 30.2% [1][4] Financial Highlights - The company’s gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 24.3% in 2023, with H2 gross margin reaching 25.8% [5][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 3.03 yuan, with a proposed total dividend of 2.03 yuan per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 60.3% [3][4] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 3.59, 4.13, and 4.68 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 14.5, and 12.8 [6][9]

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月27日 申洲国际（02313.HK） 买入 2023 年净利润持平，下半年毛利率修复至 25.8% 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 纺织服饰·纺织制造 2023年净利润持平，下半年收入及毛利率环比提升明显。2023年公司收入 下降10%至249.7亿元，人民币单价提升5%左右，美金单价上升1%左右， 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：关竣尹 0755-81981391 0755-81982834 体现品牌去库存影响。归母净利润同比持平45.6亿元，剔除政府补贴、 dingshijie@guosen.com.cnguanjunyin@guosen.com.cn 汇兑、利息净收入影响的主营净利润同比提升11%，主要由于毛利率提升2.2 S0980520040004 S0980523110002 百分点至24.3%，及税率更低的海外子公司盈利占比提升带动所得税率下降。 基础数据 全年经营性现金流净额52亿元，增长13%，净现比1.15；公司净现金 投资评级 买入(维持) 114亿元，同比增加32亿元。全年派息率小幅提升至60%。 合理估值 91.00 - 99.00港元 收盘价 65. ...