Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing asset valuation recovery and profit improvement, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 364.31 billion yuan [1]. - The underwriting profitability remains healthy, with a reported underwriting profit of 6.44 billion yuan and a combined ratio (COR) of 98.2% [1]. - The net profit for the first half of the year reached 26.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.0% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovery in the capital market and stable interest rates [1]. - The auto insurance segment shows steady growth, with a 4.7% increase in insurance service revenue, amounting to 219.51 billion yuan [1]. - Non-auto insurance business has also maintained good growth, achieving 144.80 billion yuan in insurance service revenue, but faced underwriting losses of 0.68 billion yuan due to frequent natural disasters [1]. - The company is enhancing its asset allocation strategy, increasing the proportion of FVOCI equity assets by 10.8% year-on-year, leading to a significant improvement in investment income [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 504.48 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.59% [2][7]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is 29.52 billion yuan, representing a 20.08% increase compared to 2023 [2][7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.33 yuan [2][7]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 1.04 for 2024, decreasing to 0.90 by 2026 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) with a current price of HKD 12.20 [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 26.75 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% [2][5] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 392.27 billion, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with non-auto insurance service revenue growing by 6.1% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Insurance service revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 364.31 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year, with auto insurance revenue at CNY 219.51 billion, growing 4.7% [2][3] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 0.3 percentage points to 98.2%, primarily due to natural disasters impacting non-auto insurance profitability [4] - Total investment income reached CNY 27.5 billion, a significant increase of 70.4% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in equity markets [5] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on a new business model integrating "insurance + risk reduction services + technology," enhancing its competitive edge in the market [6] - The market share in the property insurance sector reached 32.8%, maintaining its industry leadership [6] - Future net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to CNY 33.1 billion, CNY 36.9 billion, and CNY 41.3 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328 HK) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance's 9M24 performance is expected to show significant improvement with cumulative net profit increasing by 20-40% YoY, driven by capital market recovery and improved investment returns [2] - The company's 9M24 ROE is expected to reach 10 4%, up 1 6 pct YoY, primarily due to improved investment yield and stable underwriting performance [2] - The report highlights the company's focus on high-quality development and its new business model of "insurance + risk reduction services + technology" [2] Financial Performance - 9M24 cumulative net profit is expected to grow by 30% YoY, with 3Q24 net profit reaching 7 745 billion yuan (3Q23: 153 million yuan) [2] - 9M24 cumulative investment yield is expected to improve to 3 4% from 2 7% in 9M23, driving a 32% YoY increase in cumulative investment income [2] - The company's 9M24 COR is expected to be 97 7%, slightly improved from 97 9% in 9M23 [2] Business Segment Analysis Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative auto insurance COR is expected to be 96 6%, with premium growth of 3 2% YoY [2] - The improvement in auto insurance profitability is attributed to the expansion of commercial auto insurance pricing coefficients and the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [2] Non-Auto Insurance - 9M24 cumulative non-auto insurance COR is expected to be 99 4%, impacted by natural disasters and macroeconomic fluctuations [2] - Non-auto insurance premium growth is led by property insurance (3 3% YoY) and agricultural insurance (1 0% YoY), while credit insurance premiums declined by 5 9% YoY [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company shareholders to be 29 6 billion yuan, 32 3 billion yuan, and 34 5 billion yuan respectively [2] - Insurance service revenue is expected to grow from 494 billion yuan in 2024E to 569 8 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [2] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 12% from 2024E to 2026E [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price of HKD 13.60 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit growth of approximately 20-40% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by robust business growth and significant investment income due to stock market performance [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company's original insurance premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investment performance expected to improve significantly due to the stock market rally [3][5]. - The investment income accounted for a high proportion of the company's pre-tax profit, with 75% in 2023 and 65% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong reliance on investment performance for profitability [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB 483.95 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.85% [7]. - Total investment income is expected to rise to RMB 21.91 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 41.61% compared to the previous year [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is RMB 29.60 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.41% [7]. Investment Performance - The report notes that the stock market's performance in the third quarter of 2024 is anticipated to enhance the company's quarterly profits significantly, with an estimated profit increase of 30% attributed to the stock market rally [4][5]. - The company's equity asset allocation as of the first half of 2024 was 11.4%, with a focus on high-yield stocks and funds [5]. Underwriting Performance - The original insurance premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to grow by 4.6%, with motor insurance increasing by 3.2% and non-motor insurance by 5.9% [6]. - The combined ratio (COR) for motor insurance is expected to be around 96.8% for the full year, while the non-motor insurance COR is projected to be 99.5% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][12] Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with auto insurance growing by 5.3% and non-auto insurance by 8.9% [4][11] - The growth in auto insurance is attributed to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with expectations for steady growth driven by policies promoting vehicle upgrades [11][12] - Non-auto insurance continues to show positive growth, particularly in health insurance and credit guarantee insurance, with a forecast for continued growth in the coming year [11][12] Summary by Sections Premium Income - In September 2024, the company achieved a premium income of 46.179 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with auto insurance at 26.955 billion yuan (+5.3%) and non-auto insurance at 19.224 billion yuan (+8.9%) [4][11] Auto Insurance - The auto insurance premium growth is primarily due to an increase in new car sales and average premiums, with a notable improvement in growth rate from August (4.4%) to September (5.3%) [11] - The company expects the combined ratio (COR) for auto insurance to improve to below 97% in 2024 due to enhanced risk management and regulatory support [11][12] Non-Auto Insurance - Non-auto insurance premiums grew by 8.9% in September, driven by health insurance (+18.3%) and credit guarantee insurance (+15.8%) [11] - The company anticipates continued growth in non-auto insurance premiums, supported by economic recovery and favorable policies [11][12] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 28.121 billion yuan, 30.728 billion yuan, and 34.063 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 11% [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328) [1] Core Views - China Property & Casualty Insurance achieved steady growth in premium income and continued optimization in cost control during H1 2024 [1] - The company's market share remained leading in the property insurance market, despite a slight decline of 0.3pct YoY to 34.0% [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio was maintained at a good level of 96.2%, with effective cost control measures in place [2] - The company's investment income improved QoQ, with a stable solvency position [2] Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved original insurance premium income of RMB 311.996 billion, up 3.7% YoY [2] - Insurance service income reached RMB 235.841 billion, up 5.1% YoY, driven by growth in motor vehicle insurance (RMB 145.157 billion, +5.3% YoY), accident and health insurance (RMB 24.751 billion, +7.5% YoY), and liability insurance (RMB 18.339 billion, +8.4% YoY) [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.491 billion, down 8.7% YoY, mainly due to high-frequency natural disasters impacting non-auto insurance profitability [2] Cost Control - The comprehensive cost ratio for auto insurance was 96.4%, down 0.3pct YoY, with a comprehensive loss ratio of 71.2% (+1.5pct YoY) and a comprehensive expense ratio of 25.2% (-1.8pct YoY) [2] - Non-auto insurance had a comprehensive cost ratio of 95.8%, up 1.5pct YoY, with agricultural insurance showing improvement at 89.0% (-2.0pct YoY) due to business structure optimization [2] Investment Performance - Investment income in H1 2024 was RMB 13.971 billion, down 7.8% YoY, with an annualized total investment yield of 4.4% (-0.8pct YoY but +1.2pct QoQ) [2] - Investment assets totaled RMB 641.834 billion, up 6.8% YoY, with fixed-income assets at RMB 387.962 billion (+10.9% from the beginning of the year) and equity investment assets at RMB 154.936 billion (-2.2% YoY) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 5.50%, 6.15%, and 6.32% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 7.63%, 9.17%, and 12.41% YoY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.19, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.46 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] Valuation - The stock's PE ratio is estimated at 7.82x, 7.17x, and 6.37x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price as of September 17 [3]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|中国财险（02328） 车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月17日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年 8 月保费收入公告，8 月当月公司实现保费收入 373.75 亿元，同比+7.0%， 其中车险同比+4.4%、非车险同比+12.2%，车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好。鉴于公司稀缺 的商业模式和较高的 ROE，我们维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522100001 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月17日 中国财险(02328) 车险及非车险保费增速均延续向好 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|---------------------|----------------| | | | | | | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | | 当前价格： | 10.08 港元 | | 基本数据 | | | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry despite a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to frequent natural disasters in the first half of 2024. The company has a solid pricing and scale advantage, which is anticipated to enhance its market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 is projected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year to 18.491 billion yuan. The underwriting profit is expected to be 8.999 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the increase in the combined ratio caused by natural disasters. Investment income is forecasted to decrease by 7.8% to 13.971 billion yuan, with a total investment return rate dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2% (not annualized) [1][3]. Combined Ratio - The combined ratio for the first half of 2024 is expected to rise by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 96.2%, with the loss ratio increasing by 1.2 percentage points to 70.1% and the expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 26.1% [1]. Premium Income - The company achieved original premium income of 311.996 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, maintaining a market share of 34%. Insurance service income reached 235.841 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year, continuing to lead the industry [1]. Business Segments - **Auto Insurance**: Insurance service income grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 145.157 billion yuan, with underwriting profit increasing by 13.3% to 5.202 billion yuan. The combined ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 96.4% [2]. - **Accident and Health Insurance**: Insurance service income rose by 7.5% year-on-year to 24.751 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 96.3% to 0.13 billion yuan due to increased compensation standards [2]. - **Agricultural Insurance**: Insurance service income decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 23.292 billion yuan, while underwriting profit increased by 14.6% to 2.572 billion yuan, driven by improved risk management [2]. - **Liability Insurance**: Insurance service income grew by 8.4% year-on-year to 18.339 billion yuan, but underwriting loss was 0.747 billion yuan due to changes in business structure [3]. - **Enterprise Property Insurance**: Insurance service income increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 8.862 billion yuan, but underwriting profit fell by 94.3% to 0.038 billion yuan due to increased disaster losses [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to face pressure on its investment side due to anticipated fluctuations in the capital market. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 26.6 billion yuan and 29 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8.38% and 8.79%, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 net profit of 31.5 billion yuan has been added [3].

PICC 中国人民财产保险股份有限公司 PICC PROPERTY AND CASUALTY COMPANY LIMITED 股份代號: 2328 2024 中期報告 . 公司簡介 本公司於2003年7月由中國人民保險集團獨家發起設立，是中國內 地最大的財產保險公司。本公司於2003年11月6日成功在香港聯交 所主板掛牌上市，成為中國內地第一家在海外上市的金融企業。目 前，本公司總股本為22,242,765,303股，其中中國人民保險集團持 有68.98%的股份，H股股東持有31.02%的股份。 主要業務 機動車輛保險、企業財產保險、貨物運輸保險、責任保險、意外傷害保 險、短期健康保險、農業保險、信用保險、保證保險、家庭財產保險、船舶 保險等人民幣及外幣保險業務；與上述業務相關的再保險業務；國家法律法 規允許的投資和資金運用業務。 目錄 財務摘要 2 經營業績和財務狀況的 討論與分析 | --- | |------------------| | | | | | 業績概覽 | | 主要業務經營分析 | | 專項分析 | | 展望 | 公司治理及 其他資料 28 未經審計中期簡 明合併財務資料 中期簡明合併利潤表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of HKD 11.59-12.20, based on a 2024E PB of 0.95-1.0x [3][4] Core Views - The company's property and casualty insurance business, particularly auto insurance, demonstrates strong competitive advantages, with a higher proportion of low-claim-rate household auto insurance and controllable channel costs [3] - Despite the impact of natural disasters and other factors, the company's comprehensive cost ratio remains superior to industry peers [1][3] - The company's Q2 net profit showed significant improvement, with a YoY increase of 17.4%, partially offsetting the 38.3% decline in Q1 [1][4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.49 billion, a YoY decrease of 8.7%, with underwriting profit of RMB 9.0 billion, down 5.0% YoY [1] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders reached RMB 242.8 billion, a 4.9% increase from the beginning of the year, with an unannualized ROE of 7.7%, down 1.3 percentage points YoY [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points YoY to 96.2%, with the auto insurance and agricultural insurance ratios improving by 0.3 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively [3][7] Business Operations - H1 2024 premium income grew steadily, with a YoY increase of 3.7%, and the company's market share rose by 1.5 percentage points to 34.0% [1] - Auto insurance service income increased by 5.3% YoY, with household auto insurance policies up 6.5% and new car insurance policies up 5.2% [1] - New energy vehicle insurance policies surged by 59.3% YoY, with household auto insurance policies in this segment up 60.6% [1] - Non-auto insurance service income grew by 4.9% YoY, with liability insurance and accident/health insurance up 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively, while agricultural insurance declined by 7.0% [1][6] Investment Strategy - The company significantly increased its allocation to fixed deposits, government bonds, and treasury bonds, while reducing its allocation to funds [4] - As of H1 2024, the total investment asset size reached RMB 641.8 billion, a 6.8% increase from the beginning of the year, with fixed income and equity investments accounting for 60.5% and 24.1%, respectively [4] - The total investment income was RMB 14.0 billion, a YoY decrease of 7.8%, with an unannualized investment return rate of 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points YoY [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company's current stock price corresponds to a 2024E PB of 0.83x, which is at a low valuation level [3] - The report forecasts a 2024E EPS of RMB 1.16, with a YoY increase of 5.1%, and a 2024E BVPS of RMB 11.13, up 7.0% YoY [5][11] - The company's net profit is expected to grow by 9.3% and 11.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with EPS reaching RMB 1.27 and RMB 1.42 [5][11] Industry Comparison - The company's 2024E PB of 0.83x is lower than the average PB of 1.44x for comparable property and casualty insurance companies [10] - The company's 2023 ROE of 10.6% is slightly below the average ROE of 11.37% for comparable companies [10]