Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年5月20日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue driven by a recovery in new home transactions and the development of rental services, despite a slight decline in profitability metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's GTV transaction volume reached 843.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with revenue of 23.3 billion, up 42% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.39 billion, flat year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [1]. - Gross margin was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability levels [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The company's existing home transaction volume was 580.3 billion in Q1 2025, up 28% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment at 6.9 billion, a 20% increase [2]. - The new home business outperformed the market, with a transaction volume of 232.2 billion, up 53% year-on-year, and revenue of 8.1 billion, a 64% increase [2]. - The rental services segment saw revenue of 5.1 billion, a remarkable 94% increase year-on-year, although it had a lower contribution margin of 6.7% [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth - The company expanded its store count to 57,000, a 29% increase year-on-year, and the number of agents reached 550,000, up 24% [2]. - The market share for new homes increased to 12.6%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong competitive positioning [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory in new business segments, with home decoration and rental services showing promising revenue growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is entering a new phase of stabilization, and Beike has reported better-than-expected financial results amid this backdrop [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, Beike achieved net revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with a net profit of 855 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 1.393 billion yuan [2] - Beike's transaction volume for existing homes reached 580.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year, while new home transaction volume grew 53% to 232.2 billion yuan, with net revenue increasing by 64.2% to 8.1 billion yuan [6] Business Strategy - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy has shown effectiveness, with non-real estate transaction services accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue, growing 46.2% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is focusing on optimizing developer partnerships and enhancing service efficiency to meet inventory clearance needs [7] Market Context - The real estate market is experiencing a shift in policy focus from preventing rapid price increases to promoting stabilization, with supportive measures being implemented by various government bodies [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline of 0.4% in new home sales, which is significantly better than the previous year, while the second-hand housing market showed signs of recovery [5] Operational Efficiency - Beike's active store count surpassed 55,210, marking a historical peak, with a 23% year-on-year increase in active agents, totaling 491,000 [7] - The company reported improvements in operational efficiency, with store and agent productivity increasing by 8% and 14% respectively [7] Technological Innovation - Beike is leveraging AI technology to enhance its real estate service value chain, with tools like the AI housing assistant "Pudding" and various AI products for agents [12][13] - The AI-driven solutions have significantly improved efficiency, with over 20,000 agents participating in the pilot programs, leading to a 30% increase in client conversion rates [12] Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in its long-term growth under the "One Body, Three Wings" strategy and plans to continue investing in AI applications [15] - As the real estate market stabilizes, Beike aims to transition from scale expansion to quality growth, enhancing the overall living experience for consumers [15]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the "loan off-season" and emphasizes the observation of the effects of monetary easing, with May to June being a critical period for assessing the impact of incremental policies [1][6][7] - Financial data from April shows an increase in social financing scale, with new social financing of 16.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 trillion yuan, and a recovery in the growth rate of social financing stock to 8.7% [6][7] - The report highlights that the weighted average interest rate for new loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a continued low-interest environment [6][7] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current state of China's sci-tech bond market, noting that it is in its early development stage compared to overseas markets, characterized by a smaller market size, shorter issuance periods, and higher ratings [2][8] - It forecasts that as the sci-tech bond market matures, there will be rapid growth in market size and a diversification of issuance entities, particularly from high-tech industries, which will better match the long R&D cycles of innovative enterprises [2][11] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with excavator sales in April increasing by 18% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend [3][12] - The report notes that domestic excavator sales reached 49,109 units in the first four months of 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by factors such as the replacement of aging equipment and improved funding conditions [12][13] - It recommends several companies in the engineering machinery sector, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [3][12] Company Recommendations - The report highlights Beike-W (02423.HK) as a leading player in the domestic real estate brokerage industry, with Q1 2025 revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a 42.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [4][14] - The company is projected to see continued growth in its second-hand housing business, driven by an increase in transaction volume and market coverage [4][15] - The report maintains profit forecasts for Beike-W for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 9.7 billion, 11.62 billion, and 13.62 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company continues to expand its capacity, with significant improvements in fee management leading to enhanced potential profitability. The self-operated platform drives GTV growth, and both existing and new housing monetization ratios have improved sequentially. The company is expected to maintain a valuation premium due to its competitive advantages and potential earnings elasticity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.3 billion (up 42.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.86 billion (up 98.2%). Adjusted net profit was 1.39 billion (up 0.1%) [6]. - The company’s GTV for Q1 2025 was 843.7 billion (up 34.0%), with existing and new housing businesses growing by 28.1% and 53.0%, respectively [6]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from existing housing and new housing businesses increased by 20.0% and 64.2%, respectively. Home decoration revenue grew by 22.3%, while rental revenue surged by 93.8% [6]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, but gross profit increased by 17.0% year-on-year [6]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The company effectively managed costs, with selling, general, and administrative expenses decreasing as a percentage of revenue by 7.0 percentage points to 18.1%. The tax rate also decreased by 10.3 percentage points to 38.1% [6]. - As of Q1 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 54.8 billion, indicating strong liquidity. The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 1.39 billion on share buybacks [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see adjusted net profits of 8.25 billion, 9.02 billion, and 10.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.2, 18.5, and 16.6 [6]. - The company has room for growth in brokerage business share, and home decoration and rental segments are anticipated to contribute to future growth [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][70]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue grew by 42% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in new home transactions and the development of rental services [8][70]. - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) reached 843.7 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year, with operating income of 23.3 billion yuan [8][70]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.39 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 6.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [13][70]. - The company effectively controlled operating costs, with significant reductions in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [13][70]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was 23.3 billion yuan, a 42% increase year-on-year, with new home business revenue accounting for 35% of total revenue, up 5 percentage points [8][70]. - The adjusted net profit margin decreased to 6.0%, with a gross margin of 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points [13][70]. Business Segments - The existing home business saw a transaction total of 580.3 billion yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, but the contribution margin fell to 38.1%, down 6.4 percentage points [22][70]. - The new home business outperformed the market with a transaction total of 232.2 billion yuan, up 53% year-on-year, and a market share increase of 4.5 percentage points to 12.6% [38][70]. - The rental services segment reported a revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, a 94% increase year-on-year, although with a lower contribution margin of 6.7% [48][70]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects adjusted net profits of 8.2 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.28 yuan and 2.46 yuan [70][73]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 19.4 and 18.0, respectively [70][73].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The sales area decline has continued to narrow in the first four months of 2025, with high-energy cities showing higher transaction heat [5][14] - The new housing starts have decreased significantly, impacting construction data, while completion areas are still declining year-on-year [6][19] - The decline in real estate development investment has expanded, with weak willingness to start new projects [7][20] - Domestic loan growth has turned positive, but sales collection pressure remains significant [24] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the national commodity housing sales area was 283 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 2.1% [5][14] - The sales amount for commodity housing was 2.70 trillion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, with residential sales amount down 1.9% [5][14] - In April 2025, the sales area and amount were down 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, with a monthly average price decline of 4.7% [5][14] Construction and Investment - The new housing starts in the first four months of 2025 were 178 million square meters, down 23.8% year-on-year [6][19] - The completion area was 156 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction [6][19] - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 2.77 trillion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, primarily due to declining new starts [7][20] Financing and Market Outlook - The total funds available for real estate development enterprises were 3.26 trillion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.8% [24] - The investment suggestion indicates a recovery trend in core cities since March 2025, with a recommendation for companies that can capture improvement-driven customer demand [30]

Core Insights - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy continues to show effectiveness, with solid performance in Q1 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 843.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34% [2] - Net revenue was 23.3 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit stood at 855 million yuan, with adjusted net profit at 1.393 billion yuan [1][2] - Existing home business net revenue grew by 20% to 6.9 billion yuan, while new home business net revenue surged by 64.2% to 8.1 billion yuan [2] - Non-real estate transaction service revenue increased by 46.2%, accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue [2] Business Segments - Home decoration and furnishing revenue reached 2.9 billion yuan, a 22.3% increase, with a profit margin of 32.6%, up 2 percentage points [2] - Rental service revenue grew by 93.8% to 5.1 billion yuan, supported by an increase in managed properties [2] - Managed properties exceeded 500,000, with "Worry-Free Rental" managing over 490,000 units [2] Innovation and Technology - Beike is actively integrating AI technology across its services, enhancing long-term development [4] - The AI housing assistant "Pudding" has been launched in 10 cities to assist users in the home-buying process [4] - The "Client" assistant for agents has been used by over 200,000 agents, improving client maintenance and transaction rates [5] Research and Development - R&D expenses increased from 467 million yuan in Q1 2024 to 584 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 24.9% rise [4][5] - The company plans to continue investing in AI applications, indicating sustained growth in R&D spending [5] - As of March 31, 2025, Beike's cash and cash equivalents totaled 54.8 billion yuan [5]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年5月19日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | ...