Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a new historical high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) increasing by over 2.4% during trading, currently up by 1.9% [1][10]. - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net subscription of 40.2 million units reported, totaling 387 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][10]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator has shown a golden cross, with the fast line (DIF) consistently above the slow line (DEA), signaling a continuation of the bullish trend and indicating that the upward momentum has not shown signs of weakening [1][10]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which rose over 6%, and several others like Huaxi Non-ferrous, Tin Industry Co., and Western Mining, which increased by more than 5% [3][14]. - Key weighted stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Zijin Mining also showed positive performance, with increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [3][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 2.6%, leading to increased expectations for an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][12]. - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in April rose to 42%, up from 38% prior to the announcement [5][12]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a bullish environment for non-ferrous metals, as lower interest rates may increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][12][6]. - The current tightening supply and demand dynamics in physical assets during the Fed's easing cycle could result in significant price elasticity for metals like copper and aluminum, indicating the onset of a super cycle in industrial metals [6][12]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [7][13].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to surge, with a net inflow of 17.5 billion yuan on January 9, ranking third among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [1][8] - The popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), saw its price rise over 3.5% during the day, closing up 3.24%, reaching a new historical high [1][8] - The ETF's trading volume exceeded its listing high, indicating a potential buying signal for investors [1][8] Fund Inflows and Performance - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF experienced a net subscription of 57.6 million units, with a total net inflow of 194 million yuan over the past five days, and 279 million yuan over the last ten days [1][8] - The trading volume for the ETF reached 88.1 million yuan, showing a slight increase compared to previous periods [1][8] Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll report released on January 9 indicates potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][8] - Recent price increases in various minor metals, particularly tungsten, are attributed to supply constraints and rising global demand for strategic resources [2][8] - Analysts predict that under conditions of loose liquidity and frequent supply disruptions, prices for copper, aluminum, gold, and battery metals are likely to continue rising through 2026 [2][8] Sector Highlights - Leading stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Yunnan Zinc Industry and Xiamen Tungsten Industry, have shown significant gains, with some stocks reaching their daily limit [3][10] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF covers a wide range of industries, including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, allowing for better exposure to the sector's performance [4][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the precious and industrial metals sector is experiencing a significant bullish trend, driven by increased investment and favorable market conditions [1][3][4] - The Huabao ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 3.33%, reaching a historical high, with a net subscription of 52.8 million units and a total inflow of 279 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector, particularly those related to commercial aerospace, have shown strong performance, with Yunnan Zhenye hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Chihong Zn & Ge also experiencing significant gains [1][8] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, indicating a stable foundation for a gold bull market that is expected to extend to related non-ferrous and strategic metals [3][10] - Analysts predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy will likely lead to gradual interest rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for the non-ferrous metals market [3][10] - The ongoing U.S. rate-cutting cycle and liquidity easing are expected to benefit non-ferrous metal prices, with supply constraints and increased demand from traditional and emerging sectors, such as AI and energy storage, contributing to a potential price surge [3][10] Group 3 - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance across different economic cycles [4][11] - The current market conditions suggest that the industrial metal supercycle may have already begun, particularly for metals like copper and aluminum [3][10] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to rise significantly due to the resilience of traditional industries and the emergence of new sectors, indicating a potential upward shift in price levels [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the gold sector is experiencing increased attention due to the Federal Reserve's unexpected expansion of its balance sheet, which may lead to a significant increase in dollar liquidity and potentially harm the dollar's credibility, benefiting gold prices [1] - The onset of a super cycle for industrial metals is anticipated to drive inflation, further supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent pullbacks, particularly through tax-exempt physical gold investments and gold stock ETFs that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.24% and individual stocks like Chihong Zn & Ge (up 5.19%) and Baotai Co. (up 4.31%) showing significant gains [1] - The recent surge in copper futures, reaching new highs, is attributed to ongoing risks related to U.S. import tariffs on copper, which are expected to support prices [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, citing persistent risks that will sustain copper prices [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Dongfang Securities points out that during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, even small supply-demand gaps in physical assets can lead to significant price elasticity, indicating a potential super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the industry index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum leading the list [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the sustained upward trend of copper, gold, and aluminum driven by industrial logic, despite uncertainties regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][14]. - It suggests that the primary driver for non-ferrous metal pricing will shift from interest rate expectations to industrial demand growth, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [9][14]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program, which may weaken the dollar's credit [9][14]. - It notes that tight supply conditions are expected to support copper prices in the medium term, with significant inventory shortages in non-American regions [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems, driven by rising copper prices [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report anticipates a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper, gold, and aluminum, supported by strong industrial demand [9][14]. - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly companies with improving production metrics [9][14]. - For copper, it highlights companies with significant resource reserves and ongoing production expansion as attractive investment targets [9][15]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, leading to pressure on steel profitability [16][20]. - Weekly rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.40% decline compared to the previous week and a 14.55% drop year-on-year [20]. - Steel prices have shown a slight overall decline, with the average price index for common steel dropping by 1.14% [32][33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales [41]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints in the market [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The investment momentum in the non-ferrous metals sector remains strong, with significant inflows into the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicating positive market sentiment towards this sector's future performance [1][8]. Fund Inflows - As of December 11, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 140 million yuan in the last four days and 371 million yuan over the past 20 days, reflecting a robust interest from investors [1][8]. - The latest scale of the non-ferrous metal leader ETF is 835 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1][8]. Sector Analysis Gold - Goldman Sachs has indicated that there may still be upward potential for gold prices next year, predicting a target price of $4,900 by the end of 2026. A 1 basis point increase in gold's portfolio allocation could raise its price by approximately 1.4% [3][10]. Aluminum - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum prices may continue to show strong fluctuations. The domestic production capacity is constrained by a "ceiling" of 45 million tons, limiting new capacity additions. Demand remains resilient, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices in the aluminum sector [3][10]. Copper - Supply shortages and tariff concerns are likely to continue driving copper prices higher. The supply-demand imbalance in the copper mining and smelting sectors may ease, with expectations for smelting fees to stabilize, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices [3][10]. Lithium - The lithium battery production forecast for December shows a production of 143.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. The overall sentiment in the lithium sector remains positive, with expectations for rising prices due to increased production capacity utilization [4][11]. Investment Strategy - Given the varying degrees of market conditions and drivers across different non-ferrous metals, a diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds (A class: 017140, C class: 017141) is recommended. This strategy allows for risk diversification while capturing the overall sector's performance [5][11].

Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a pullback, but the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is showing resilience with a net inflow of funds, indicating positive sentiment towards the nonferrous metals sector [1][6]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a net subscription of 49.2 million units, reflecting strong investor interest [1][6]. - Over the past two days, the ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan, and in the last 20 days, it has attracted 243 million yuan [1][6]. - As of December 9, the ETF's total size reached 748 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1][6]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks within the ETF include Yunnan Zhenye, which rose over 6%, and Baiyin Nonferrous, which increased by more than 4% [1][6]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloys and Northern Rare Earths saw declines of over 3% and more than 1%, respectively, negatively impacting the index [1][6]. Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 89.4%, which could support nonferrous metal prices [3][8]. - Analysts suggest that during a rate-cutting cycle, tight supply-demand dynamics in physical assets could lead to significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][8]. - The outlook for 2026 anticipates increased demand for copper driven by power investments and for aluminum due to energy storage and substitution needs [3][8]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metals [9].