Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue acceleration in Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 46.6 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 700 million RMB [6] - The focus of the company is shifting towards revenue growth and investment, with expectations of expansion in express delivery volume, integrated supply chain customer numbers, and overseas layout [6] - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit margin of 4.3% in 2024, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [6] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 83.07 billion, 91.66 billion, and 105.13 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a growth of 4.93%, 10.34%, and 14.70% [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 166,625 million RMB - 2024: 182,838 million RMB - 2025E: 204,215 million RMB - 2026E: 225,948 million RMB - 2027E: 247,880 million RMB - The adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 2,761 million RMB - 2024: 7,917 million RMB - 2025E: 8,307 million RMB - 2026E: 9,166 million RMB - 2027E: 10,513 million RMB - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 0.44 RMB - 2024: 1.25 RMB - 2025E: 1.31 RMB - 2026E: 1.45 RMB - 2027E: 1.66 RMB - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 24 in 2023 to 6 in 2027 [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - KuaYue Express is redefining high-end logistics service standards through its unique strategic layout and innovative capabilities, emphasizing a competitive stance of "having what others have, and being stronger in what others do not" [1] Group 1: Time Barriers - KuaYue Express has established a "limited-time express" service since its inception in 2007, creating four major air hubs that connect key economic regions, achieving "door-to-door delivery in as fast as 8 hours" across provinces [2] - The company's unique "dynamic routing" system utilizes big data and AI to optimize transport paths in real-time, saving 20% in space resources and enhancing cargo capacity by 30%, thus meeting B-end clients' demands for timeliness and stability [2] - In contrast, JD Logistics, while strong in warehousing and last-mile delivery, relies on external partnerships for trunk line timeliness and lacks the technical depth of KuaYue's "dynamic routing" [2] Group 2: Technological Foundation - KuaYue Express is defined as a "technology logistics company" by its founder, with significant investments in technology, including a "digital system" covering the entire logistics process, developed with an investment of several billion yuan in 2019 [4] - The company employs over 300,000 cameras and AI video monitoring for full visibility of goods throughout the logistics process, surpassing traditional logistics firms' information levels and complementing JD Logistics' strengths in supply chain forecasting and warehouse management [4] Group 3: B-end Services - KuaYue Express focuses on the enterprise market, providing customized solutions for high-demand industries such as 3C electronics, pharmaceuticals, and fresh produce, achieving a customer repurchase rate and satisfaction that have led the industry for three consecutive years [6] - The company reported a "less-than-truckload revenue of 18.47 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate exceeding 30%", demonstrating its strong influence in the B-end market [6] - JD Logistics, despite strengthening its express business through the acquisition of Debang, still primarily focuses on C-end e-commerce and integrated supply chain services [6] Group 4: Synergistic Effects - By 2025, the integration of strengths between KuaYue Express and JD Logistics will enter a new phase, with KuaYue gaining access to JD's warehousing network, last-mile delivery, and international business support [8] - The combination of JD's global "2-3 day delivery" time frame with KuaYue's air network will jointly expand the cross-border logistics market, while KuaYue's trunk resources will optimize JD's supply chain costs [9] - This "1+1>2" synergy allows KuaYue to maintain its core advantages in technology and timeliness while benefiting from JD's ecosystem, creating a comprehensive service system that is difficult for competitors to replicate [9] Group 5: Future Layout - KuaYue Express is advancing its W5000 large unmanned cargo aircraft project in collaboration with White Whale Airlines, aiming to extend its air network and expand its service range from domestic to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe [11] - Unlike traditional logistics companies that focus on single areas, KuaYue is leveraging a "unmanned + globalization" dual-engine strategy to continuously broaden its competitive boundaries [11] - In a critical period where the logistics industry shifts from scale competition to quality competition, KuaYue Express is building comprehensive logistics capabilities covering all scenarios and links, solidifying its leadership position in the high-end market [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a target price adjustment from HK$22.90 to HK$23.28, reflecting a 2% increase [2][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with expectations of RMB 7,353 million for 2025, marking a 7.1% increase [10][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10% increase [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 3.6% for 2025, slightly improving from previous estimates [14][20]. Valuation - The DCF model indicates a target price of HK$23.28, with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price implies a significant discount compared to the target price, suggesting limited downside risk [8][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with an expected increase to RMB 7,353 million in 2025, indicating a growth of 7.1% [10][20]. - The gross profit margin improved from 7.6% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024, with a projected margin of 10.7% for 2025 [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing revenue estimates by 7.3% and 9.0% respectively, based on the strong performance in 2024 [13][14]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is now projected at RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10.5% increase [14][15]. Valuation Analysis - The target price of HK$23.28 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price is seen as having limited downside potential due to the conservative guidance and low market expectations [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of integrated supply chain solutions [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth rate of 905.79% [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio decreased from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4] - The average revenue per external customer slightly decreased by 4.8% to 400,000 yuan [3] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 69.9% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan [3] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 32.29 billion yuan, a growth of 2.8%, with the number of customers increasing from 74,700 to 80,700 [3] Future Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 6.63 billion yuan, 7.36 billion yuan, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion, up 507.2% year-on-year [3] - The company’s external customer revenue remains stable at around 70%, with external customer revenue of 127.78 billion, growing by 9.6% [3] - The company’s gross profit increased from 12.7 billion in 2023 to 18.7 billion in 2024, with a gross margin rising from 7.6% to 10.2% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, JD Logistics' operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion, with the cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 2.6 percentage points to 89.8% [4] - The company’s employee compensation rose by 11.2% to 61.5 billion, while other cost items grew at a slower pace than revenue [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.63 billion, 7.36 billion, and 7.94 billion respectively, indicating continued growth [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [4][5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of an integrated supply chain [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 905.79% from the previous year [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio improved from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4][11] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.63 billion, 7.36 billion, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The number of integrated supply chain customers increased from 74,700 to 80,700, although the average revenue per customer slightly decreased by 4.8% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 17.80 [8][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year to RMB 182.8 billion for 2024, with a significant rise in net profit to RMB 6.2 billion from RMB 0.62 billion in the previous year, driven by increased business volume and capacity utilization [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced logistics capabilities and product competitiveness, particularly in the integrated supply chain logistics services, which will support further business growth [1][5]. - The company has accelerated its overseas integrated supply chain business development, establishing over 100 bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses across 19 countries and regions [4]. Revenue Performance - External customer revenue reached RMB 127.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 70% of total revenue, while revenue from JD Group was RMB 55.1 billion, up 10.0% [2]. - The number of external customers grew by 8.0% to 80,803, although the average revenue per customer (ARPC) decreased by 4.8% to RMB 400,156 [2]. Profitability and Margin Expansion - For 2024, JD Logistics achieved a gross profit of RMB 18.7 billion and a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 7.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 47.4% and 186.8%, respectively [3]. - The gross margin and non-IFRS net margin improved by 2.6 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points to 10.2% and 4.3%, respectively, due to increased business scale and reduced unit costs [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in logistics infrastructure to enhance fulfillment capabilities and competitiveness, which may temporarily impact profit margins [5]. - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly reduced by 5% and 9% to RMB 7.14 billion and RMB 8.1 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 9.38 billion [5]. Valuation Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 205.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.19% [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.07, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.38 times [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][6] Core Views - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, with Q4 revenue growth returning to double digits at 10.4% [6][7] - The revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to improved efficiency and the implementation of new policies and promotional activities [6][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in adjusted net profit, reaching 7.917 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 186.8% [6][7] - The report highlights the company's focus on balancing revenue and profit growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.3% in 2024 [6][7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits of 8.469 billion yuan and 9.373 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a focus on revenue growth and investment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 166,625 - 2024: 182,838 - 2025E: 207,654 - 2026E: 232,112 - 2027E: 255,738 [3][7] - Adjusted net profit (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 2,761 - 2024: 7,917 - 2025E: 8,469 - 2026E: 9,373 - 2027E: 10,796 [3][7] - Earnings per share (in yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 0.13 - 2024: 0.42 - 2025E: 1.19 - 2026E: 1.27 - 2027E: 1.41 [3][7] Market Data - Closing price as of March 7, 2025: 13.20 HKD - Market capitalization: 87.699 billion HKD [4][6] - 52-week high/low: 16.84/7.46 HKD [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at RMB 202,053 million, up from RMB 194,624 million, marking a 3.8% increase [5]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year in 2025, supported by external business growth [6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8,384 million, a 6.0% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 7,910 million [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 4.1% for 2025 [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 22,486 million, with a gross margin of 11.1% [5]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase, reflecting ongoing investments in personnel and automation [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 20.78% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 102,714.38 million [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 16.34 and HKD 7.55, respectively, indicating significant price movement over the past year [4].