Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Yancoal Australia with a revised target price (TP) of HK$45, up from HK$40, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HK$38.35 [2][12]. Core Insights - The suspension of the Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine due to a fire incident is expected to last several months, leading to a reduction in global metallurgical coal export volume by approximately 0.8%. This situation is anticipated to drive up met coal prices, positively impacting Yancoal's average selling price (ASP) in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2]. - The earnings forecast for Yancoal has been revised upwards by 7% for 2024 and 9% for 2025, reflecting the expected increase in ASP due to higher coal prices [2]. - The report highlights that Yancoal is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5x for 2024E and offers a yield of 7.7%, making it attractive for investors seeking safety and high dividends [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at AUD 7,133 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be AUD 1,477.1 million, a decline of 18.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is estimated at AUD 1.12, with a P/E ratio of 6.5x and a return on equity (ROE) of 16.8% [3]. - The company’s net gearing is projected to improve to -25.5% in FY24E, indicating a strong balance sheet position [3]. Market and Production Insights - The report notes that the benchmark semi-soft coking coal price has dropped approximately 28% year-on-year to US$152 per tonne in Q1 2024, but is expected to stabilize following the Grosvenor incident [2]. - Yancoal's total marketable coal production for 2024E is estimated at 49.5 million tonnes, with a sales volume of 37.3 million tonnes, including 32.1 million tonnes of thermal coal and 5.2 million tonnes of metallurgical coal [5][6]. - The average selling price for thermal coal is projected to be AUD 170 per tonne, while metallurgical coal is expected to average AUD 270 per tonne in FY24E [5]. Valuation and Assumptions - The valuation is based on net present value (NPV) calculated from future cash flows of reserves, with long-term price assumptions for thermal and metallurgical coal set at AUD 130/t and AUD 200/t respectively starting in 2027E [12]. - The report assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.9% and an AUD/HKD exchange rate of HK$5.27 [12]. Share Performance - Yancoal's share price has shown significant performance, with a 1-month increase of 18.0% and a 3-month increase of 42.8% [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$50,638.9 million, with an average turnover of HK$69.9 million over the past three months [3]. Peer Comparison - Yancoal's P/E ratio of 6.5x for FY24E is competitive compared to peers, with Whitehaven Coal at 9.0x and New Hope Corporation at 8.0x [14]. - The dividend yield for Yancoal is projected at 7.7%, which is attractive compared to the average yield of 5.0% for its peers [14].

Production and Sales Performance - Yancoal Australia achieved a record production of 60.2 million tons of raw coal in 2023, a 19% increase compared to 2022[6]. - The equity sales volume reached 33.4 million tons, reflecting a 14% growth year-over-year[6]. - Yancoal's coal production reached 75 million tons, with a total saleable coal production of 60 million tons, maintaining a strong operational performance[9]. - The company reported a total coal production of 20.4 million tons in 2023[41]. - The company’s Hunter Valley joint venture produced 17.2 million tons of raw coal in 2023[42]. - The total raw coal production increased by 19% from 50.5 million tons in 2022 to 60.2 million tons in 2023, driven by significant contributions from the major assets of Morabir, Walker, and Hunter Valley, which rose by 28% to 52.9 million tons[158]. - The total saleable coal production rose by 12% from 38.9 million tons in 2022 to 43.6 million tons in 2023, with the major assets contributing to an 18% increase to 38.5 million tons[158]. - The equity saleable coal production, excluding Zhongshan, rose by 14% from 29.4 million tons in 2022 to 33.4 million tons in 2023, while including Zhongshan, it increased by 12% to 34.5 million tons[161]. - Power coal production increased by 17% from 24.7 million tons in 2022 to 28.8 million tons in 2023, while metallurgical coal production decreased by 5% to 5.7 million tons[161]. Financial Performance - Yancoal Australia achieved a total revenue of AUD 3.5 billion for the fiscal year 2023, with an operating EBITDA of AUD 1.8 billion, reflecting a 51% EBITDA margin[8]. - The company declared a total dividend of AUD 918 million for the fiscal year 2023, including a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.37 per share and a fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.325 per share[8]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of $1.2 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year growth[94]. - The profit attributable to Yancoal Australia shareholders decreased by 49% from AUD 3.586 billion in 2022 to AUD 1.819 billion in 2023[186]. - Operating EBITDA for 2023 was AUD 3.517 billion, a decrease of 50% compared to AUD 6.384 billion in 2022[186]. - The company’s basic earnings per share decreased by 49% from AUD 271.6 in 2022 to AUD 137.8 in 2023[186]. - The company’s total operating expenses increased by 61% from AUD 297 million in 2022 to AUD 334 million in 2023[188]. - The company’s coal sales revenue was significantly impacted by market conditions, leading to a 28% decline in overall revenue[188]. Cost Management - Cash operating costs per ton of product coal were AUD 96, slightly up from AUD 94 in 2022, despite increased production levels[6]. - The cash operating cost per ton of coal increased from AUD 94 in 2022 to AUD 96 in 2023, representing a rise of AUD 2 per ton[199]. - The cash operating cost in the first half of 2023 was AUD 109 per ton, while it decreased to AUD 86 per ton in the second half, a reduction of AUD 23 per ton (21%)[199]. - The total production cost (excluding royalties) for 2023 was AUD 122 per ton, slightly down from AUD 123 per ton in 2022[199]. - The total production cost for 2023 was AUD 143 per ton, compared to AUD 159 per ton in 2022[199]. Safety and Employee Well-being - The rolling total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 5.1, a significant reduction from 7.9 at the end of 2022[5]. - The total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 5.1, significantly lower than the industry average of 8.3, demonstrating the company's commitment to employee safety[8]. - The company is in the second year of implementing its "Safety Every Day" program, aimed at enhancing health, safety, and training management across its operations[8]. - Over 90% of the company's employees have started or completed the "Safety Every Day" training program in 2023[165]. - The company’s ongoing mental health program is in its third phase, emphasizing the importance of employee well-being and support[8]. Community Engagement and Sustainability - Yancoal's community support programs contributed AUD 800,000 to 154 organizations, reflecting its commitment to local community engagement[8]. - The company donated AUD 1.7 million to local and regional health, environment, education, arts, culture, and community programs in 2023[175]. - The company is addressing climate-related challenges and has committed to sustainability initiatives as part of its long-term strategy[96]. - The company has established a dedicated sustainability function, with the executive general manager reporting directly to the CEO[168]. - The company plans to release its first sustainability report in April 2024, detailing its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data[166]. Governance and Compliance - Yancoal Australia has a strong commitment to corporate governance and compliance, with a dedicated legal and compliance director[62]. - The board of directors includes members with extensive experience in finance and management, enhancing corporate governance[83][85][88]. - The company has established a nomination and remuneration committee to oversee executive compensation and performance evaluations[122]. - The company has implemented strict governance processes to enhance sustainability performance across its operations[176]. Market Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Yancoal Australia expanded its international customer base, selling coal to 14 target markets, with significant increases in exports to China[6]. - The company is focused on expanding its market presence and exploring new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability[8]. - The company is considering diversification strategies to expand beyond coal and explore alternative energy opportunities[5]. - Market expansion efforts include entering two new international markets, expected to contribute an additional $30 million in revenue[91]. - The company is actively engaged in the development of new technologies for coal production[39]. Executive Compensation - The executive compensation framework aims to align with shareholder performance, focusing on economic performance as a core part of the overall compensation plan design[110]. - The short-term incentive plan rewards executives based on achieving financial, operational, and strategic priorities, with 50% paid in cash and 25% deferred to rights[110]. - The long-term incentive plan rewards participants based on long-term performance, with 60% tied to earnings per share conditions and 40% to cost target conditions[110]. - The highest individual executive remuneration in 2023 was AUD 5,908,777 for David James Moult, which is 67% of his performance-related pay[141]. - The total remuneration for executives in 2023 amounted to AUD 8,778,229, a decrease of 60% compared to AUD 9,109,103 in 2022[141].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of 34.78 HKD [3][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong start to 2024 with coal sales volume reaching 8.3 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 41%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 18% [1][11]. - The average coal price in Q1 was 180 AUD/ton, with thermal coal averaging 159 AUD/ton (down 12% quarter-on-quarter) and metallurgical coal at 334 AUD/ton (up 14% quarter-on-quarter) [1][11]. - The company has maintained a competitive cash operating cost guidance of 89-97 AUD/ton, indicating strong profit margins [1][11]. - The dividend policy is attractive, committing to pay at least 50% of net profit or free cash flow [1][11]. Production and Sales - The Q1 coal production was 8.8 million tons, a 49% increase year-on-year, while it decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter due to mining continuity and seasonal wet weather [1][11]. - The annual production guidance remains unchanged at 35-39 million tons, with expectations for higher production in the second half of the year [1][11]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024 and 2025 EPS at 1.05 AUD and 1.04 AUD respectively, with a P/E ratio of 6.5x for 2024 [1][11]. - Revenue projections show a decline from 7,778 million AUD in 2023 to 7,231 million AUD in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 7% [2][11]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 1,819 million AUD in 2023 to 1,380 million AUD in 2024, a decline of 24% [2][11]. Cost Structure - The cash operating cost per ton is projected to be 93 AUD in 2024, down from 95 AUD in 2023 [9][11]. - The total production cost, including depreciation and amortization, is expected to be 137 AUD per ton in 2024 [9][11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that despite a softening in coal prices, the overall market remains relatively balanced due to strong export supplies from Australia and Indonesia [1][11]. - The average coal price is expected to stabilize throughout the year, with thermal coal prices projected to be 173 AUD/ton in 2024 [8][11].

在主讲一讲讲结束后下面有请主持人讲话主持人您可以开始了 你好主持人可以听到吗啊黄总喂那个各位投资者那个中午好那我们看到这个眼眶澳大利亚 昨天公布了整个一季度的一个经营业绩可以看到这个公司整个一季度其实销量出现了非常强劲的一个增长我们今天非常有幸的请到了公司的相关领导来跟大家交流一下公司一季度取得的一些经营成果和对整个后续的展望有请公司的一个财务总监苏林苏总来给大家稍微介绍一下 谢谢黄总黄总能听到吗可以的可以的可以的好的谢谢黄总谢谢国泰军业证券感谢线上参加本次野蛮澳洲2024年第一季度生产报告电话会的各位投资者我先简要的概括介绍一下 一季度的生产经营活动然后我们可以进入问答环节今天的介绍主要是基于昨晚在澳交所联交所发布的季度生产报告那么先说一下公司的一个整体的现金情况我们因为这个报告按照澳交所的惯例我们并没有 做一个财务的记报它更多是一个生产报告那么一季度呢我们的现金余额增加了2.61澳元那这个现金的增加了呢是一个金额它是扣除掉了所有的运营资本支出啊公司的成本而且这里面也包括了大家会比较关注的有一个每个月 税款的定期缴税的这么一个性格吧截至一季度季末眼媒澳洲共持有现金将近17亿澳元我们在四月底将支付全额免税的2 ...

兖煤澳大利亚24年一季报交流240419国君_原文 2024年04月19日 14:07 发言人1 00:43 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 01:33 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 02:22 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 03:12 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 04:01 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 04:51 发言人1 05:40 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 06:30 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 07:19 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人1 08:09 感谢大家参加本次电话会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。 发言人2 08:22 本次电话会议仅服务于国泰君安证券正式签约客户，会议音频及文字记录的内容仅供国泰君安证券客户 内部学习使用，不得外发，并且必须经国泰君安证券研究所审核后方可留存。国泰君安证券未授权任何 媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容，未经允许和授权转载、转发均属侵 ...

兖煤澳大利亚交流240419广发_原文 2024年04月19日 14:03 发言人1 00:05 和声明，本次电话会议内容仅供广发证券客户参考。在任何情况下，本次电话会议内容不构成对任何人 的投资建议，除非法律法规有明确规定。在任何情况下，广发证券不对因使用本次电话会议内容而引致 的任何损失承担任何责任。相关人员不应以本次电话会议内容取代其独立判断或仅根据本次电话会议内 容作出决策。 发言人1 00:35 未经广发证券事先书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊登、传播和引用本次电话会议内 容，包括未经授权对会议内容进行录音复制。未经授权制作或传播会议纪要内容等，否则，由此造成的 一切不良后果及法律责任由私自复制、刊登、传播和引用者承担。广发证券将对未经授权复制、制作、 刊登、传播电话会议内容的人员暂停白名单权限，事情可暂停所在机构白名单权限，直至相关不良影响 得以消除。 发言人2 01:22 各位投资者，大家下午好，欢迎参加广发煤炭的电话会议。昨天晚上也没澳洲发布了一季度的经营数 据。我们再次邀请到公司的管理层，第一时间来跟大家做个线上的交流。今天线上参与我们电话会议的 领导包括CFO苏苏总，公司秘书 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia reported a decrease in equity sales volume and average selling prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal in Q1 2024 compared to previous periods [1] Sales Volume and Production - In Q1 2024, Yancoal Australia's equity sales volume was 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons compared to the previous period, offsetting prior inventory consumption [1] Price Indices - The average API5 index price in Q1 2024 was $93 per ton, down from $96 per ton in Q4 2023, while the GCNewc index average fell from $136 per ton to $126 per ton [1] - The metallurgical coal indices also saw declines, with the low volatile pulverized coal index dropping from $185 per ton to $164 per ton, and the semi-soft coking coal index decreasing from $161 per ton to $150 per ton [1] Sales Price Structure - The sales price structure is diverse, reflecting previous coal price indices due to sales delays, with factors influencing prices including market premiums or discounts, washing and product specification capabilities, and available coal for blending [1] Average Selling Prices - Converted to Australian dollars, the average selling price for thermal coal in Q1 2024 was AUD 159 per ton, and for metallurgical coal, it was AUD 334 per ton [1] - The overall average selling price for Yancoal Australia in Q1 2024 was AUD 180 per ton, down from AUD 196 per ton in the previous quarter and AUD 347 per ton in Q1 2023 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668) with a target price of HKD 37.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 26.25 [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 26%, attributed to falling coal prices. The total revenue recorded was AUD 7.78 billion, with a net profit of AUD 1.82 billion, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production and cash costs in the second half of 2023, with cash costs expected to stabilize between AUD 92-102 per ton in 2024 as production ramps up [1]. - The international coal market is expected to reach a new balance, with coal prices stabilizing in the second half of 2023. The average price for 2024 is projected at AUD 183 per ton [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Yancoal Australia reported a total revenue of AUD 7.78 billion, a decrease of 26% from the previous year. The net profit was AUD 1.82 billion, reflecting a 39% decline [1][2]. - The average cash cost for the year was AUD 96 per ton, with significant increases in costs during the first half, which improved in the second half due to increased production [1]. Production and Costs - The company is actively restoring production capacity, with coal production expected to return to historical highs. The average coal price for 2023 was AUD 232 per ton [1]. - Cash costs are projected to decrease in 2024 as production increases, with expectations of maintaining costs within the guidance range of AUD 92-102 per ton [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a rebalancing in the international coal market, with prices expected to stabilize. The NEWC6000K index is projected to average USD 126 per ton in 2024 [1]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices is linked to global economic factors and the reopening of the Australian coal market [1]. Dividend and Debt Management - The company has successfully repaid its interest-bearing debts, enhancing its investment value. It declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 0.33 per share for 2023, with a total dividend payout of AUD 9.18 billion [1]. - As of the end of 2023, Yancoal Australia held AUD 1.65 billion in cash and had no interest-bearing debt, only lease liabilities [1].

Table_Title Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 2 月 27 日 公司动态分析 兖煤澳大利亚（3668.HK） 证券研究报告 全年业绩符合预期，股息率达 14% xxxx 煤炭 xxxx 事件：公司发布2023年年度业绩，实现收入77.78亿澳元，同比减少26%；实现税后利润 投资评级： X 买入 xx 18.19亿澳元，同比减少49%，符合我们预期。公司此前已发布全年运营数据，符合管理层 年初指引。公司分派期末股息0.3250澳元/股，实现全年派息率50%。基于公司指引，我们 目标价格： 35.52 元 略微上调今年的现金运营成本和产量预测，维持对今年煤价相对平衡的看法，预计公司今年 仍有望实现不错的利润率水平。公司贷款余额为零，料今年有不错的现金流表现。另外，公 现价 (2024-2-27)： 29.70港元 司优秀的管理水平、珍贵的资源禀赋以及较高的分红水平对投资者仍然较为吸引，继续维持 “买入”评级。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 39,217.05 公司全年业绩符合预期，利润率仍然优秀。公司全年实现收入77.78亿澳元，同比减少26%； H股市值(百万港元) 39,217.04 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has initiated a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (03668), forecasting net profits of AUD 1.803 billion, AUD 1.811 billion, and AUD 1.811 billion for 2024 to 2026, with a target price of HKD 42.09 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the second half of last year, production and sales recovery led to a significant decrease in costs, with Yancoal Australia's coal cost dropping to AUD 86 per ton, a reduction of AUD 23 per ton compared to the first half [1] - By the end of 2023, the company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to a low level of 25%, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to AUD 1.339 billion [1] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, with a total dividend of HKD 3.55 per share last year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 11.3% based on the current share price [1] Group 2: Operational Focus - The company's focus for this year will shift towards optimizing costs and maximizing operating profit margins, with further reductions in coal costs anticipated [1] - Interest expenses for 2023 are projected to be only AUD 20 million, indicating strong financial health and capacity for continued dividends [1]