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中金 | 大模型系列(5):大语言时序模型Kronos的A股择时应用
中金点睛· 2025-10-14 23:40
Core Insights - The article discusses the development and application of the Kronos model, a Time-Series Foundation Model (TSFM) specifically designed for financial market data, particularly K-line data [3][9][17] - Kronos aims to address the challenges of low signal-to-noise ratio and strong non-stationarity in financial time series data, which often hinder the performance of general-purpose models [3][9] - The model employs a two-phase framework: K-line tokenization and autoregressive pre-training, allowing it to effectively learn the complex "language" of financial markets [12][13][17] Summary by Sections Introduction to TSFM - TSFMs have emerged from the success of large-scale language models in NLP and CV, focusing on pre-training on diverse time series data to create a general-purpose model adaptable to various tasks [2][6] - The key advantages of TSFMs include their generalization and transfer learning capabilities, enabling them to learn universal time patterns and trends from vast datasets [2][6] Overview of Kronos Model - Kronos is tailored for financial K-line data, utilizing a "domain pre-training + fine-tuning" approach to deeply understand financial market characteristics [3][9] - The model's architecture includes a specialized tokenizer and a large autoregressive Transformer model, which learns the syntax and dynamics of financial data [9][12][17] Performance Evaluation of Kronos - Initial tests of the Kronos standard model on major A-share indices showed a high correlation between predicted and actual closing prices, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.732 for the 5-day forecast [4][19] - The model's predictive performance improved significantly when fine-tuned, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.856 for the same forecast [4][39] Application of Kronos in Timing Strategies - The article explores the application of Kronos in constructing timing strategies based on predicted closing prices, specifically for the CSI 1000 index [30][33] - The strategy generated positive returns, but it missed significant upward trends since July 2025, indicating a reliance on prior index reversal logic [30][33] Enhanced Performance with Fine-Tuning - A fine-tuned version of Kronos demonstrated a 33.9% return in 2025, with an annualized excess return of 9%, outperforming the original method by over 20 percentage points [5][42] - The fine-tuning process involved adjusting model parameters and rolling adjustments to better adapt to market conditions, leading to improved predictive accuracy [34][42] Conclusion - Kronos represents a significant advancement in financial time series forecasting, effectively capturing the complexities of financial data and translating predictions into actionable investment strategies [17][42]
中金公司:2025年科技创新公司债券(第一期)票面利率为1.71%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 22:26
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has announced the issuance of technology innovation corporate bonds with a total scale of up to RMB 1 billion [1] - The coupon rate inquiry range for the bonds is set between 1.40% and 2.10% [1] - The final coupon rate for the bonds has been determined at 1.71% based on the results of the offline investor inquiry conducted by the lead underwriter [1]
中金公司(03908):2025年科技创新公司债券(第一期)票面利率为1.71%
智通财经网· 2025-10-14 22:26
Core Viewpoint - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced the issuance of technology innovation corporate bonds with a total scale of up to RMB 1 billion, targeting professional institutional investors [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance is referred to as the first phase of the technology innovation corporate bonds [1] - The coupon rate inquiry range for the bonds is set between 1.40% and 2.10% [1] - The final coupon rate for the bonds was determined to be 1.71% based on the results of the offline investor inquiries conducted by the lead underwriter [1]
中金公司(03908) - 海外监管公告 - 2025年面向专业机构投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券(...

2025-10-14 22:11
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 中 國 國 際 金 融 股 份 有 限 公 司 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03908) 海外監管公告 中國,北京 2025年10月14日 於本公告日期 ,本公司執行董事為陳亮先生;非執行董事為張薇女士及孔令岩先生; 以及獨立非執行董事為吳港平先生、陸正飛先生、彼得 • 諾蘭先生及周禹先生。 中国国际金融股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业机构投资者公开发 行科技创新公司债券(第一期)票面利率公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏,并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担个别及连带责任。 中国国际金融股份有限公司面向专业投资者公开发行不超过 200 亿元(含 200 亿元) 公司债券已获得中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意中国国际金融股份有限公司向专业 ...
券商公募集体取消监事会
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-14 15:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of brokerage firms and public funds in China canceling their supervisory boards is closely related to regulatory requirements and aims to optimize corporate governance structures and improve operational efficiency [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Actions - On October 13, both China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Shenwan Hongyuan announced they would no longer establish supervisory boards, with their functions being transferred to the audit committee of the board of directors [2][4] - Since September, several other firms, including Dongxing Securities and Guosen Securities, have also announced similar cancellations of their supervisory boards [2][4] - Public fund companies like Huaxia Fund and Founder Fubon Fund have also taken steps to abolish their supervisory boards, delegating responsibilities to their audit committees [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The changes align with the new Company Law and related regulations, which require firms to clarify their internal supervisory structures by January 1, 2026 [4][6] - The new regulations aim to simplify and strengthen internal supervision mechanisms to enhance the overall governance level of securities and fund management institutions [4][6] Group 3: Benefits of the Change - The abolition of supervisory boards is expected to streamline decision-making processes and enhance the effectiveness of supervision by concentrating oversight within the audit committee [3][5] - Audit committees, typically composed of independent directors, are believed to provide greater independence and professionalism compared to traditional supervisory boards, thus improving oversight capabilities [5][6] - This reform reflects a heightened emphasis on transparency and accountability in modern corporate governance [4][6]
券商公募掀监事会“取消潮”,中金、申万宏源同日跟进,用意何在
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-14 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of brokerage firms and public funds in China canceling their supervisory boards is closely related to regulatory requirements and aims to optimize corporate governance structures and improve operational efficiency [1][6][7] Group 1: Industry Movement - On October 13, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Shenwan Hongyuan announced they would no longer establish supervisory boards, transferring the responsibilities to the audit committee of the board of directors [4][5] - Since September, several other brokerages, including Dongxing Securities and Guosen Securities, have also announced similar cancellations of supervisory boards [5][6] - Public fund institutions like Huaxia Fund and Founder Fubon Fund have followed suit, indicating a broader industry trend [5][6] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The changes align with the new Company Law and related regulations, which require firms to clarify their internal supervisory structures by January 1, 2026 [7][8] - The new regulations aim to simplify and strengthen internal supervision mechanisms to enhance the overall governance level of securities, funds, and futures institutions [7][8] Group 3: Benefits of the Change - The cancellation of supervisory boards is expected to centralize and enhance the efficiency of the company's supervisory mechanisms, reduce management layers, and accelerate decision-making processes [6][8] - The audit committee, typically composed of independent directors, is seen as more capable of effective oversight compared to traditional supervisory boards [7][8] - This shift emphasizes the importance of transparency and accountability in modern corporate governance, with the audit committee directly reporting to the board of directors [7][8]
中金公司维持百度“跑赢行业”评级 目标价189美元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 11:53
中金公司维持百度"跑赢行业"评级,3Q收入承压但AI商业化进展亮眼,智能体、数字人需求强劲, GPU云增速超50%。公司推进AI改造与股东回报优化,净现金充裕。SOTP估值显示美股有55%上行空 间,25年非通用准则PE仅18倍,显著低于目标28倍,目标价189美元。 ...
“中国机构是迪拜金融中心发展的关键力量”
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-10-14 10:03
根据最新发布的全球金融中心指数(GFCI),迪拜正式跻身全球四大金融科技中心之列,成为中 东、非洲和南亚地区(MEASA)唯一入榜的全球领军金融中心。 这一成就的背后,迪拜国际金融中心(DIFC)功不可没。作为该地区首屈一指的全球金融枢纽, DIFC目前汇聚超过8000家企业和48000名专业人士。 过去十年间,DIFC首席执行官阿里夫·阿米里(Arif Amiri)带领DIFC实现了历史性的高速增长, 推动迪拜成为面向未来的金融发展引擎。同时,作为"未来技术与数字经济高级委员会"成员,阿米里正 致力于将DIFC打造为区域内人工智能(AI)、金融科技与数字资产的核心枢纽。 近日,阿米里在接受《国际金融报》记者的专访时表示,人工智能对金融业的改造将远不止"自动 化"。它将彻底重塑机构评估风险、服务客户、设计产品的底层逻辑。此外,他强调中国机构在DIFC的 快速集聚,正是双方共享发展机遇的有力体现。 目前,DIFC已成为阿联酋境内最受中国金融机构青睐的聚集地,中金公司、中国银行、工商银行 等多家头部机构均在此设立分支机构,以辐射中东、非洲及南亚等高增长市场。作为区域内唯一实现全 业态、规模化运营的金融中心,DIF ...
申万宏源:预计三季度券商业绩同比增速延续超50% 头部券商海外业务保持高增长
智通财经网· 2025-10-14 09:10
Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain a growth trend in net profit for Q3 2025, continuing the over 50% year-on-year increase seen in the first half of 2025, driven by strong market trading volumes [1][8]. Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q3 2025 reached 2.04 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 153% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% [1][3]. - The average margin financing and securities lending balance for Q3 2025 was 2.12 trillion yuan, up 49% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The Hong Kong market saw an average daily turnover (ADT) of 2,550 billion HKD year-to-date, a 93% increase compared to 2024 [6][7]. Investment Business - The stock market performed well, with key indices reaching new highs in 2025: the CSI 300 index increased by 17.90%, the ChiNext index by 50.40%, and the STAR 50 index by 49.02% [1][2]. Bond Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.86% during the reporting period, while the CSI All Bond Index fell by 1.78% [2]. - Despite an increase in equity exposure by most brokerages, the bond market's decline led to a slight decrease in proprietary trading income for Q3 2025 [2]. Brokerage and Margin Financing Business - The brokerage sector is expected to generate 437 billion yuan in revenue for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% [3]. - New A-share accounts opened in September 2025 totaled 2.9372 million, marking a 61% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Banking Business - The A-share IPO scale for Q3 2025 was 38 billion yuan, up 148% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The total scale of refinancing (including private placements, rights issues, and preferred shares) was 74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189% [4]. Asset Management Business - The market saw a significant recovery in newly established equity funds, with 2,093 million units created in Q3 2025, a 304% year-on-year increase [5]. - The total scale of ETFs reached 5.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 31% increase from the end of Q2 2025 [5]. International Business - The performance of the Hong Kong market and IPO activities has been active, with 71 new companies listed year-to-date, raising 187.3 billion HKD [6][7]. - The top brokerages are expected to maintain high growth in their overseas businesses, particularly those that completed capital increases for international subsidiaries [7]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to achieve a net profit of 610 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54% [8]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in three main lines: strong comprehensive institutions benefiting from industry competition optimization, brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business competitiveness [8].
新华网:关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的公告


Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-10-14 07:12
Core Points - Xinhua Net announced the replacement of its continuous supervision sponsor representative from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) due to a work change of the previous representative [2] - The original representatives were Chen Jiaqi and Wang Chao, with Wang Chao being replaced by Liao Hanqing to ensure the continuity of supervision duties [2] Summary by Categories - **Company Announcement** - Xinhua Net received a report from CICC regarding the change of its continuous supervision sponsor representative [2] - The change was necessitated by the work relocation of Wang Chao, one of the original representatives [2] - **New Appointment** - Liao Hanqing has been appointed to take over the responsibilities and obligations related to the continuous supervision of Xinhua Net [2]