Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) as a rare investment target with both offensive and defensive strengths, maintaining an "overweight" rating. The report notes a significant increase in trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market since September 2024, with the company's financial performance reaching historical highs in the first three quarters of the year. The positive market sentiment is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by policy initiatives encouraging more mainland companies to list in Hong Kong and the return of Chinese concept stocks [1]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX achieved total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, with growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter saw revenue growth of 44.7% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was HKD 13.42 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year, with a 5.7 percentage point increase compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter's net profit growth was 55.8% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Trading fees, trading system usage fees, and settlement and clearing fees accounted for HKD 13.1 billion (60.0% of total revenue), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 83.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The average daily trading volume increased by 126.3% year-on-year to HKD 256.4 billion, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 141.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.5% [2][3]. Investment Income - The net investment income for the first three quarters was HKD 3.89 billion (17.8% of total revenue), a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with growth slowing by 9.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The net investment income from the company's own funds was HKD 1.3 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 4.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The income from margin and clearing house fund investments was HKD 2.6 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 1.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [3]. Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for stock securities on the exchange reached HKD 238.7 billion in the first three quarters, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 132.4%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 149.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.6%. The average daily trading volume in the derivatives market was HKD 17.7 billion, up 67.0% year-on-year, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 59.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [4]. New Listings - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a strong increase in new listings, with 69 new companies listed, a year-on-year increase of 53.3%. The total funds raised amounted to HKD 188.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.7%. Notably, Zijin Mining's listing in the third quarter raised HKD 28.7 billion, making it the second-largest new listing globally this year. As of the end of the third quarter, there were 297 listing applications pending, representing a 253.6% increase compared to the end of the previous year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality economic development as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and highlights the strategic directions for various industries in the coming years [7][8]. Macro Perspective - Future domestic economic policies are expected to continue supporting growth, maintaining it within a reasonable range, which will further solidify the foundation for a prosperous capital market [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" identifies key development directions for industries over the next five years, focusing on traditional industries, consumption, emerging industries, and future industries [8]. Industry Focus - The article suggests focusing on three main directions: industrial structure upgrading, technological self-innovation, and boosting domestic consumption [8]. - Industrial structure upgrading will target sectors such as mining, chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding [8]. - Technological self-innovation will emphasize new energy, new materials, low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and industrial mother machines [8]. - Boosting domestic consumption will focus on trade retail, social services, food and beverage, and certain new consumption areas [8]. Financial Sector - The "15th Five-Year Plan" mentions "finance" 17 times, indicating significant opportunities for the financial sector, with a focus on building a strong financial nation [9]. - Key areas include improving the central bank system, enhancing capital market stability, and promoting healthy financial development [9]. Electronics and Technology - The plan outlines four key areas related to the electronics industry, aiming to enhance self-innovation capabilities and seize technological development opportunities [9]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is repeatedly emphasized, indicating a focus on translating technological innovation into industrial applications [9]. Emerging Industries - The low-altitude economy and nuclear fusion are highlighted as strategic emerging industries, supported by national policies, with long-term development potential [10]. - The article notes that these sectors are integral to national security and will continue to receive significant attention [10]. High-End Manufacturing - The article discusses policy-driven breakthroughs across multiple fields, marking the beginning of a new journey for high-quality development in the industry [10]. - It also mentions the restructuring of supply and demand in the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors, emphasizing the importance of energy security in the petrochemical industry [10]. Healthcare and Automotive - The healthcare sector is expected to experience structural changes driven by new productivity, optimized procurement, and new medical infrastructure [10]. - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation due to technological advancements, reshaping its landscape [10]. Renewable Energy and Real Estate - The renewable energy sector is poised for new development opportunities and broader growth potential [10]. - The real estate industry is transitioning towards a focus on quality and inventory management [10].

Core Insights - The report predicts changes in the yield curve using the Nelson-Siegel model, which describes the curve's dynamics through three factors: level, slope, and curvature [3][29]. - An improvement in the model for predicting the level factor has been made by incorporating policy rates, market benchmark rates, slope, and curvature factors, which enhances the predictive accuracy [4][56]. - The duration rotation strategy based on yield curve predictions shows robust performance, consistently outperforming benchmarks and achieving significant excess returns [5][91]. Duration Rotation Strategy - The latest signal from the duration rotation strategy, as of October 31, 2025, indicates a strong preference for long-duration interest rate bonds, with a signal value of 10 [6][96]. - The strategy is designed to capitalize on the natural "risk-return-liquidity" trade-offs present in different maturity bonds, where short-term bonds offer lower duration and volatility but higher reinvestment risk, while long-term bonds provide higher coupon protection but are more exposed to interest rate risk [10][14]. Yield Curve Construction - The report establishes the yield curve using historical spot rate data from 2006 to 2025, showing that the average yield curve is monotonically upward over the entire period [21][22]. - Principal component analysis of historical spot rates reveals three main components that represent the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve, providing insights into its dynamics [26][41]. Statistical Characteristics of Spot Rates - The statistical characteristics of spot rates indicate that as the maturity increases, the mean yield rises while volatility decreases, with the average yield curve showing a consistent upward trend [21][22]. - The report provides detailed statistics on various maturities, including total returns, annualized returns, annualized volatility, Sharpe ratios, and maximum drawdowns, highlighting the performance of different maturity segments [12][95]. Model Improvements - The report discusses enhancements to the predictive model for the level factor by integrating external variables such as policy rates and market rates, which have shown to improve the direction prediction accuracy [56][62]. - The introduction of additional factors, including slope and curvature, aims to refine predictions during periods of yield curve inversion, thereby increasing the model's robustness [70][75]. Backtesting Results - Backtesting results demonstrate that the improved duration rotation strategy yields a total return of 110.37% over the evaluation period, significantly outperforming various maturity indices and equal-weighted indices [91][95]. - The strategy's maximum drawdown is reported at 5.36%, which is lower than the maximum drawdown of 7.23% for the 7-10 year index, indicating a more stable performance [95].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that Shanghai Fudan (01385) is experiencing a recovery in high-reliability sectors and storage demand, while actively expanding into emerging fields such as automotive and industrial applications. However, due to intense market competition and the impact of asset impairment losses in 2025, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026, while showing an increase for 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 3.024 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.186 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.28% [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by sales of non-volatile storage chips, smart meter chips, and FPGA and other chip businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 42%, and 34% [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - The overall gross profit margin for products in the first three quarters was 58.47%, an increase of 3.42 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin for products reached 61.06%, reflecting an increase of 8.91 percentage points, attributed to revenue growth and product structure optimization [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 330 million RMB, a decline of 22.69%, influenced by government subsidy inspections, reduced VAT deductions, increased storage impairment provisions, and intangible asset impairment [2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 72.69%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 12% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 530 million RMB, 976 million RMB, and 1.191 billion RMB, reflecting changes of -26.4%, -1.1%, and +7.2% respectively compared to previous predictions [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -7%, +84%, and +22% respectively [1] - The current closing price is 39.5 HKD, corresponding to a forecasted P/E ratio of 56x for 2025 and 30x for 2026, with a maintained "buy" rating due to accelerated domestic substitution of FPGA chips and recovery in storage demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a recovery in demand for high-reliability and storage sectors for Shanghai Fudan (01385), while also highlighting the company's expansion into emerging fields such as automotive and industrial applications. However, due to intense market competition and asset impairment losses, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026, while showing an increase for 2027. The current stock price suggests a "buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery in memory business and accelerated domestic substitution of FPGA chips [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 3.024 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.186 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.28%. The growth in Q3 revenue was primarily driven by sales of non-volatile memory chips, smart meter chips, and FPGA and other chip businesses, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 42%, and 34% [2]. - The overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 58.47%, an increase of 3.42 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 61.06%, up by 8.91 percentage points, attributed to revenue growth and product mix optimization [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 330 million RMB, a decline of 22.69%, influenced by government subsidy verification, a decrease in VAT deductions, increased provisions for storage price declines, and impairment of intangible assets. In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.69%, with a corresponding net profit margin of 12% [2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the storage business and the acceleration of domestic substitution for FPGA chips, which are expected to positively impact the company's future performance. The adjusted profit forecasts reflect a cautious outlook due to competitive pressures and asset impairment issues, but the long-term growth potential remains strong [1].

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains profit forecasts for Yum China (09987) with net profit estimates of $1.002 billion and $1.074 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, translating to EPS of $2.53, $2.77, and $2.97 for 2025-2027, with current stock price reflecting PE ratios of 17x, 16x, and 15x for the same periods, highlighting its strong digital and supply chain capabilities as a leading Western fast-food enterprise [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $3.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (or 4% excluding foreign currency effects), with adjusted net profit of $282 million and core operating profit of $399 million, reflecting a core operating profit margin of 12.5%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Same-store Sales and Expansion - Same-store sales increased by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing growth of 2% and 1% respectively; KFC's same-store transaction volume rose by 3%, while Pizza Hut's increased by 17%, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth for Pizza Hut [3] - The company opened 536 new stores in Q3 2025, bringing the total to 17,514 restaurants, with KFC and Pizza Hut netting 402 and 158 new locations respectively; the company aims to add 1,600-1,800 new stores in 2025 [3] Operational Efficiency - In Q3 2025, the proportion of food and packaging costs to restaurant revenue was 31.3%, benefiting from supply chain efficiency and lower raw material prices; labor costs accounted for 26.2% of revenue, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year due to increased delivery business [4] - The overall restaurant profit margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with KFC and Pizza Hut margins at 18.5% and 13.4% respectively [4] New Business Initiatives - The company has made significant progress with new business initiatives, including over 1,800 KFC coffee locations, more than 100 KPRO stores in high-tier cities, and 250 WOW stores for Pizza Hut, expanding into 40 new cities [5] Product Strategy - The company focuses on core products, limited-time offerings, and entry-level products to drive sales growth; KFC's new crispy chicken wings and Pizza Hut's hand-tossed pizzas have seen strong sales, with limited-time products like spicy beef dishes also performing well [6] - Entry-level products have achieved double-digit sales growth, with KFC exploring options for meals under $20 to attract a broader customer base [6]

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities maintains the net profit forecast for Yum China (09987) at $1.002 billion and $1.074 billion for 2026-2027, translating to EPS of $2.53, $2.77, and $2.97 for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating due to strong digital and supply chain capabilities [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $3.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (or 4% excluding foreign currency effects), with adjusted net profit of $282 million and core operating profit of $399 million, reflecting an 8% increase (excluding foreign currency effects) [1][2] - The core operating profit margin was 12.5%, up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Same-Store Sales and Expansion - Same-store sales increased by 1% in Q3 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut showing growth of 2% and 1% respectively; KFC's same-store transaction volume rose by 3% [2] - The company opened 536 new stores in Q3 2025, with a total of 17,514 restaurants at the end of the quarter [2] Operational Efficiency - In Q3 2025, food and packaging costs accounted for 31.3% of restaurant revenue, benefiting from supply chain efficiency and lower raw material prices [3] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 17.3%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with KFC and Pizza Hut margins at 18.5% and 13.4% respectively [3] New Business Initiatives - The company has made significant progress with new business initiatives, including over 1,800 KFC coffee stores and more than 100 KPRO locations in high-tier cities [4] - The WOW Pizza Hut stores expanded to 250 locations, entering 40 new cities without a Pizza Hut brand [4] Product Strategy - The focus on core products, limited-time offerings, and entry-level products has driven sales growth, with KFC's new crispy chicken wings and Pizza Hut's new thin-crust pizza performing well [5] - Entry-level products from KFC and Pizza Hut saw double-digit sales growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with KFC exploring options for meals under 20 yuan to attract more customers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International focuses on subscription-first and AI-first strategies, enhancing its product capabilities with AI support, and maintains revenue forecasts for 2025 at 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion CNY, respectively, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1] Group 1: Product Updates - The recent product upgrade includes a comprehensive enhancement of "platform + data cloud + AI-enhanced SaaS + AI native intelligent agents" [2] - The new AI product "Xiao K" serves as a unified entry point for enterprise-level AI intelligent agents, integrating nearly 20 agents covering various fields such as supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, HR, finance, and ESG [1][2] - The AI suite will adopt a payment model based on organization size, usage, and prepayment [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kingdee's subscription ARR grew approximately 18% year-on-year to 3.86 billion CNY, with a net addition of 130 million CNY in ARR from the previous quarter [3] - The renewal rates for various products are reported as follows: Cang Qiong & Xing Han at 105%, Xing Kong at 95%, Xing Chen at 93%, and Jing Dou Yun at 88% [3] Group 3: International Expansion - Kingdee is accelerating its overseas expansion in three phases: first, serving Chinese enterprises going abroad; second, actively developing local markets and building benchmark cases; and third, establishing local R&D and delivery centers based on regional business conditions [4] - The management anticipates that overseas revenue will increase to 5%-10% of total revenue in the next 3-5 years [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International (00268) focuses on subscription-first and AI-first strategies, enhancing its product capabilities as a leading ERP provider in China, with revenue forecasts maintained at 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and a "Buy" rating upheld [1] Group 1: Product Updates - The recent product upgrade features a comprehensive enhancement of "platform + data cloud + AI-enhanced SaaS + AI native intelligence agents" [1] - The new AI product "Xiao K" serves as a unified entry point for enterprise-level AI agents, integrating nearly 20 agents covering various fields such as supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, HR, finance, and ESG, facilitating both independent and collaborative solutions for enterprise pain points [1] Group 2: AI Product Strategy - "Kingdee Cloud" has been fully upgraded to "Kingdee AI," with a strategic shift towards the Kingdee AI product family, offering AI packages for enterprises of all sizes [2] - The Kingdee Cloud Star flagship version will be upgraded to the Kingdee AI Star package on December 12, allowing customers to upgrade with one click, with a payment model based on organization size and usage [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kingdee's subscription ARR grew approximately 18% year-on-year to 3.86 billion, with a net addition of 130 million ARR compared to June, indicating stable overall growth [3] - The renewal rates for various products are reported as follows: Cang Qiong & Xing Han at 105%, Xing Kong at 95%, Xing Chen at 93%, and Jing Dou Yun at 88% [3] Group 4: International Expansion - Kingdee is accelerating its overseas expansion, initially serving Chinese enterprises abroad, then actively developing local markets, and finally establishing local R&D and delivery centers based on regional business conditions [4] - The management anticipates that overseas revenue could increase to 5%-10% of total revenue within the next 3-5 years [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International focuses on subscription-first and AI-first strategies, enhancing its product capabilities with AI support, and maintains revenue forecasts for 2025 at 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion CNY, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1] Group 1: Product Updates - The recent product upgrade includes a comprehensive enhancement of "platform + data cloud + AI-enhanced SaaS + AI native intelligent agents" [2] - "Xiao K" is introduced as a unified entry point for enterprise-level AI intelligent agents, integrating nearly 20 agents covering various fields such as supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, HR, finance, and ESG [2] - "Kingdee Cloud" is fully upgraded to "Kingdee AI," with a product strategy aligned to launch AI packages for enterprises of all sizes, and the flagship version will upgrade to "Kingdee AI Starry Sky Suite" on December 12 [2] Group 2: Data Infrastructure - Kingdee Data Cloud serves as a robust and reliable data foundation for the AI era, supporting AI native intelligent agents and AI-enhanced SaaS, providing complete solutions for clients [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Kingdee's subscription ARR grew approximately 18% year-on-year to 3.86 billion CNY, with a stable overall increase [4] - The renewal rates for various products are reported as follows: Cang Qiong & Xing Han at 105%, Xing Kong at 95%, Xing Chen at 93%, and Jing Dou Yun at 88% [4] Group 4: International Expansion - Kingdee accelerates its overseas strategy in three phases: first, serving Chinese enterprises going abroad; second, deepening local market engagement and building benchmark cases; third, establishing local R&D and delivery centers [5] - The management anticipates that overseas revenue could increase to 5%-10% of total revenue in the next 3-5 years [5]