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光大证券:中国铜冶炼厂2026年减产有望兑现 继续看涨铜价
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 07:27
智通财经APP获悉,光大证券发布研报称,矿端紧张传导至电解铜,继续看好铜价新高。CSPT成员企 业达成减产共识说明铜矿的短缺已经传导至电解铜环节,而铜矿供给紧张至少维持到2026年,继续看好 铜价后续新高。 光大证券主要观点如下: 中国铜原料联合谈判小组成员企业达成共识 据SMM,2025年11月28日,鉴于铜精矿加工费及计价条款已严重偏离市场合理水平,为推进全球铜产 业健康高质量发展、同时落实好国家"反内卷"相关要求,中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)成员企业 达成以下共识并严格遵守:(1)2026年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上;(2)维护Benchmark体系,加强 与矿山直接合作,抵制贸易商不合理计价模式;(3)强化成员参与现货投标、采购的监督;(4)建立 黑名单制度,抵制扰乱市场的供应商和检测机构。 产能:CSPT小组覆盖产能约占中国电解铜产能的70% 据百川盈孚,2025年10月中国电解铜合计产能约1422万吨,CSPT小组目前成员企业合计16家,合计覆 盖电解铜产能超过1000万吨/年,占比约70%。 TC/RC是矿企支付给冶炼企业将铜矿生产成电解铜的粗炼/精炼费,铜精矿紧张叠加中国冶炼产能迅速 扩 ...
光大证券:维持波司登“买入”评级 品牌羽绒服业务稳健增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 03:05
光大证券发布研报称,维持波司登(03998)"买入"评级,上半财年公司在波动的外部环境下,仍实现了 收入的平稳增长和净利润率的同比提升,核心业务品牌羽绒服业务和主品牌波司登收入均实现高个位数 增长,反映了公司较为扎实和持续提升的经营质量。进入下半财年,秋冬季为羽绒服品类传统销售旺 季,期待公司龙头品牌优势凸显、销售端得到提振。 光大证券主要观点如下: 波司登发布截至2025年9月末的2025/2026财年中期业绩 2025/2026上半财年公司实现营业收入89.3亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长1.4%,归母净利润11.9亿元, 同比增长5.3%,EPS为0.1元人民币,拟每股派中期股息6.3港仙。利润率指标方面,上半财年毛利率同 比提升0.1PCT至50%,经营利润率同比提升0.3PCT至17%,归母净利率同比提升0.5PCT至13.3%。 羽绒服业务收入稳健增长 3)分线上线下(300959)来看,公司全品牌线上销售收入为14.3亿元,同比增长2.2%,其中品牌羽绒服 线上渠道实现收入13.8亿元,同比增长2.4%,在羽绒服业务收入中占比为21.1%;女装业务线上收入0.4亿 元,在女装业务中占比为17.2 ...
光大证券:维持波司登(03998)“买入”评级 品牌羽绒服业务稳健增长
智通财经网· 2025-12-01 03:04
Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), highlighting stable revenue growth and an increase in net profit margin despite a volatile external environment [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Bosideng reported revenue of 8.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.1 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, operating margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 17%, and net profit margin rose by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for the first half of the fiscal year shows that the brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue, with OEM management at 22.9%, women's wear at 2.8%, and diversified clothing at 0.7% [3] - Within the down jacket segment, the main brand Bosideng contributed 87.1% of revenue, with other brands like Xuezhongfei and Bingjie contributing 5.8% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Revenue from self-operated and wholesale channels in the down jacket business grew by 6.6% and 7.9% respectively, while online sales reached 1.43 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [3] Store Expansion - As of September 2025, Bosideng operated 3,558 down jacket stores, a net increase of 88 stores (+2.5%) since the beginning of the fiscal year [4] - The breakdown of stores shows 1,239 self-operated and 2,319 franchised stores, with increases of 3 and 85 stores respectively [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the brand down jacket business was 59.1%, with Bosideng and Xuezhongfei at 64.8% and 47.9% respectively [5] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% [5] - As of September 2025, inventory was 4.74 billion RMB, a 19.9% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year but a 20.3% decrease year-on-year [5] Long-term Strategy - The company is focused on long-term development, investing in brand building and launching new products, including collaborations with top designers and flagship store renovations [6]
【十大券商一周策略】布局跨年行情!“赚钱效应”最好的时间窗,即将打开
券商中国· 2025-11-30 14:52
打破僵局只能是大超预期的基本面变化,今年是外需和出海,未来可能还是需要内需的重大变化打开市场高 度。在超预期的变化出现前,配置上建议延续资源/传统制造业定价权的重估以及企业出海两个方向。 广发证券:"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗,即将打开 每年11月,市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱,但进入12月,基本面定价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的 时间窗,即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点:春节、两会。在这期间(春节到两会),市场有很好的"赚 钱效应" ,也就是 "春季躁动"窗口期,平均持续约20个交易日。春节前后,市场从低胜率转向高胜率,从大盘 风格转向小盘风格。 12月到明年1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机,尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会爆雷且明年景气度趋势不错的方 向(年报预告不好的方向,可能最好等到明年1月末布局)。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点,很多板块调整 幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平(20%左右),12月可以逐步纳入观察范围。 中信证券:需要内需的变化打开高度 市场呈现出低波慢牛的特征,主要宽基的波动率有所下降,回撤以及夏普比率亦好于过往。但主观多头的体感 改善相对有限,今年以来依旧跑输量化策略,仅略微跑赢 ...
光大证券:A股市场仍处牛市 但短期或宽幅震荡
智通财经网· 2025-11-29 08:44
Group 1 - The overall direction of the A-share market is still in a bull market, but it may enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still considerable room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase under the government's guidance for a "slow bull" policy [1][3] - In November, major A-share indices generally declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with sectors like comprehensive, banking, and media leading in gains [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced fluctuations in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over AI bubbles. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 4.9% [2] Group 2 - In terms of investment strategy, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During the fluctuation phase, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer sectors [3] - For the Hong Kong market, a "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. The market's overall profitability remains strong, and despite recent gains, valuations are still relatively low, making long-term investment attractive [4][5] - Specific areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in technology, chip manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies with their own growth potential [5]
光大证券荣获“第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选”3项大奖
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-28 10:52
Core Insights - The seventh Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst Awards results were announced on November 28 [1] Group 1 - Everbright Securities won one research award in a specific field [1] - Everbright Securities received two major awards in the elite analyst category [1] - One industry from Everbright Securities ranked first in its category [1]
第七届新浪财经金麒麟机器人及高端制造行业菁英分析师:第一名兴业证券
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-28 08:01
Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Award Ceremony took place on November 28, gathering over 300 authoritative scholars, public and private fund leaders, listed company chairpersons, top fund managers, and chief analysts in Shanghai to discuss future opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1]. Group 2 - The results of the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Elite Analyst selection were announced [2]. Group 3 - The honor roll for the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn in the robotics and high-end manufacturing industry includes: - 1st place: Industrial Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Ding Zhigang; Team Members: Shi Kang, Guo Yanan, Qi Jiayi, Wu Weikang) - 2nd place: CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Xu Guangtan; Team Members: Chen Xuanlin, Ji Xingbo, Li Changhong, Wu Yuxuan, Qiao Lei) - 3rd place: Zhongtai Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Wang Ke; Team Members: Zheng Yameng, Wang Zijie, Xie Xiaohui, Kou Hongji) - 4th place: Minsheng Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Li Zhe; Team Members: Zhan Hao, Kuang Renlei, Li Siwei, Zhou Xiaomeng) - 5th place: Everbright Securities Research Team (Chief Analyst: Huang Shuaibin; Co-Chief: Chen Jianing; Team Members: Ji Meng, Li Jiaqing, Zhuang Xiaobo, Xia Tianyu) [3].
第七届新浪财经金麒麟建筑与建材行业菁英分析师:第一名光大证券
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-28 07:49
专题:第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 (首席分析师:张欣劼;团队成员:郭好格) 第二名 申万宏源证券研究团队 (首席分析师:任杰;团队成员:宋涛、郝子禹、唐猛) 第三名 兴业证券研究团队 (首席分析师:黄杨;联席首席:季贤东;团队成员:李明、陈宣屹) 第四名 西部证券研究团队 11月28日,2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海,共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。 同时,第七届新浪财经金麒麟菁英分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 第七届新浪财经金麒麟建筑与建材行业"菁英分析师"荣誉榜如下: 第一名 光大证券研究团队 (首席分析师:孙伟风;团队成员:吴钰洁、鲁俊) 第五名 华源证券研究团队 (首席分析师:戴铭余;联席首席:王彬鹏;团队成员:邓力 、赵梦妮、郦悦轩) 责任编辑:郭栩彤 ...
第七届新浪财经金麒麟海外市场研究最佳分析师:第一名兴业证券
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-28 06:34
专题:第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 11月28日,2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海,共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。 同时,第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选结果隆重揭晓。 第七届新浪财经金麒麟海外市场研究"最佳分析师"荣誉榜如下: 第二名 光大证券研究团队 (首席分析师:付天姿;团队成员:陈彦彤、殷中枢、陈佳宁、张宇生、王贇、赵越、杨朋沛、黄铮、 董馨悦、王明瑞、吴佳青、汪航宇、聂博雅) 第三名 天风证券研究团队 (首席分析师:孔蓉;联席首席:吴立;团队成员:杨雨辰、王梦恺、曹睿、李泽宇、樊程安吉、刘诗 雨) 第四名 国海证券研究团队 (首席分析师:陈梦竹;团队成员:张娟娟、尹芮、马川琪、袁冠、陈重伊、詹广鹏、廖小慧) 第五名 国信证券研究团队 (首席分析师:张伦可;联席首席:王学恒;团队成员:陈淑媛、王颖婕、刘子谭、张昊晨、张熙、徐 祯霆) 第一名 兴业证券研究团队 第六名 国泰海通证券研究团队 (首席分析师:张忆东;联席首席:洪嘉骏;团队成员:宋健、李彦霖、余小丽、张博、 ...
中证A500ETF(159338)盘中翻红,近5日净流入近4亿元,A股仍存上涨空间
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-28 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The market is likely still in a bull market phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth [1] - The duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase, influenced by national policies promoting a "slow bull" market [1] Group 2: Short-term Market Behavior - The market may lack strong catalysts in the short term [1] - Year-end behavior of some investors may trend towards caution, leading to a focus on market consolidation and fluctuations [1]