2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 全面增持利率品，杠杆久期均回升 ——主动型债券基金 25Q2 持仓分析 要点 1、 25Q2 债券型基金市场总览 截至 2025 年二季度末，全市场公募开放式债券型基金共计 3862 只，较 2025 年一季度末环比增加 54 只/1.4%；市场规模合计 10.93 万亿元，环比增加 0.86 万亿元/8.6%；基金份额合计 9.60 万亿份，净申购 5656.70 亿份，申购比例 6.3%。 除可转债基金外，各类型债券型基金 25Q2 均表现为净申购，市场规模扩张。 2、主动型债券基金季度表现 3、主动型债券基金重仓信用债分析 城投债：截至 25Q2 末，主动债基重仓城投债市值为 724.06 亿元，环比减持 17.94 亿元。分区域来看，浙江省持仓市值居前，广东、广西等区域被增持，湖南、四 川等区域被减持。剩余期限方面，重仓城投债平均剩余期限为 2.43 年，环比减 少 0.17 年，其中西藏、河北等区域剩余期限显著拉长，北京、广东等地有所缩 短。收益率方面，重仓城投债平均估值收益率为 1.93%，环比下行 25.63BP， 其中青海、辽宁等地收益率较高，各省份平 ...

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱，难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值+0.5%； | | 分析师：周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评（2 ...

2)项目成本降低：一方面，自2024年6月以来欧洲央行已实施八次降息，欧洲海风融资利率不断降低； 另一方面，随着供应链与技术愈加成熟，欧洲海风开发成本已从2010年的5418美元/kW降低至2023年的 3138美元/kW，平准化度电成本(LCOE)已从2010年的0.205美元/kWh降低至2023年的0.067美元/kWh。随 着项目融资、开发成本持续降低，开发商对欧洲海风项目投资意愿得到增强。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，根据WindEurope，2024年欧洲海风新增装机量为2.6GW，预 计2030年将达到11.8GW。此前俄乌冲突曾引发欧洲天然气危机，当前向可再生能源转型已成为欧洲各 国的战略共识，发展海上风电的重要性持续提高；随着项目融资、开发成本持续降低，开发商对欧洲海 风项目投资意愿得到增强；此外，欧洲多个国家通过行政手段设立政策目标、改革项目拍卖制度等，持 续推动海风加速发展。欧洲海风景气度持续提高，未来随着需求不断释放，国内积极布局欧洲市场的海 风企业有望充分受益。 光大证券主要观点如下： 受益于战略地位提高、项目成本降低、政策驱动等，欧洲海风建设迎来加速 根据WindEur ...

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks have experienced a significant decline, with notable drops in shares such as China Merchants Securities down 4.99% to HKD 16.36, Everbright Securities down 4.54% to HKD 10.52, and CITIC Securities down 4.19% to HKD 27.45 [1] - The Hong Kong Securities Index has risen 49.92% year-to-date, while the average increase for the 13 A+H component brokerage stocks in A-shares is only 4.63%, indicating a substantial narrowing of the AH premium rate [1] - The current AH premium rate for the entire market has fallen below 125%, with the brokerage sector experiencing an even more pronounced decline in AH premium [1] Group 2 - The brokerage index has shown a steady increase in July, approaching the rebound high from the fourth quarter of the previous year, with the average P/B ratio rising from a low of 1.40 to over 1.50, marking a new high for the year [2] - The brokerage index has shifted from a relatively weak position to a significantly stronger one, although the likelihood of a rapid recovery similar to the third quarter of last year is considered low [2] - A steady recovery and oscillating upward trend for the brokerage index is anticipated in the short to medium term, with expectations for a healthy rotation within the sector [2]

智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股高位回落，截至发稿，招商证券(06099)跌4.99%，报16.36港元；光大证 券(06178)跌4.54%，报10.52港元；中信证券(06030)跌4.19%，报27.45港元；中信建投证券(06066)跌 3.66%，报12.64港元。 申万宏源此前指出，香港证券指数年初至今上涨49.92%，而对应的13家A+H成分股券商A股同期涨幅均 值仅4.63%。券商AH溢价率已经显著收窄：根据恒生沪深港通AH溢价指数，当前全市场AH溢价率已经 下行至125%以下，而券商板块AH溢价率收窄更甚。该行认为外资增持中国资产、机构（险资、公募） 青睐投资高股息、低估值的港股，致使券商H股涨幅明显好于A股。重视下半年券商A股的补涨逻辑。 中原证券表示，7月券商指数稳步连续走高，在持续刷新年内新高的同时，逐步逼近去年四季度的反弹 高点，整体格局进一步转强。板块平均P/B由月初的最低1.40倍逐步修复至月末的1.50倍以上，创年内估 值新高。目前券商指数已由前期的相对弱势显著转强，但预计再度出现去年三季度末快速修复行情的概 率偏低，中短周期内券商指数保持稳步修复、震荡上涨的趋势值得期待，板块内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction, representing a significant milestone in China's energy and infrastructure sectors, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet Autonomous Region, and involves the construction of five tiered power stations using a diversion and tunnel water intake method [1] - The primary focus of the generated electricity will be on external consumption, while also addressing local demand in Tibet [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to have a long-term impact on multiple industries, including infrastructure, energy, and materials [1] - The strategic value of the project encompasses national energy security, border stability, and global climate governance [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in infrastructure-related chemical products, such as soda ash, PVC, and water-reducing agents, are likely to benefit from this project [1]

Group 1 - The humanoid robot concept is gaining traction, with companies like Changying Precision rising over 10%, Obit Zhongguang nearly 9%, and others like Ruikeda and Bojie shares increasing around 8% [1] - Yushu Technology launched its new humanoid robot Unitree R1 on July 25, priced starting at 39,900 yuan, featuring 26 joints and a weight of approximately 25 kg, integrating multimodal models for voice and image [1] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced during the earnings call that the third version of the Optimus humanoid robot prototype will be released by the end of this year, with mass production expected to start in 2026, targeting an annual production of 1 million units within five years [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, 2025 is projected to be a breakthrough year for humanoid robot mass production, with the potential for tens of thousands of units to drive the downstream industry chain into a phase of significant growth [1] - The anticipated data collection and training from mass production is expected to address data scarcity issues, facilitating the evolution of humanoid robots towards more generalized and practical applications [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the humanoid robot industry based on current hardware technology trends and the progress of various manufacturers [1]

光大证券发布研报称，2024年全球零售跨境支付市场规模达39.9万亿美元，据FXC Intelligence预测， 2032该规模将增至64.5万亿美元，2024-2032年复合年增长率达6.2%。从场景贡献结构看：B2B支付占据 主导地位，贡献79%份额；电子商务支付占5%；服务支付占11%；C2C支付占5%。值得注意的是，在 人民币跨境清算、多币种结算等业务层级中，第三方支付机构已深度嵌入支付全链路服务生态，发挥着 重要作用。预计稳定币将驱动人民币跨境支付基础设施全球扩展、以及应用场景多元化，则第三方支付 公司营收增长空间可期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the AI sector in the US stock market since Q2 2025, with a significant valuation recovery for key AI application companies, which enjoy a higher premium compared to the software industry [1] - From April 9 to July 28, 2025, the easing of tariff concerns and strong guidance on AI computing power demand from cloud vendors led to a remarkable 102% increase in the market capitalization of key AI computing companies [1] - A total of 66 key AI companies were selected for analysis, revealing that the valuation gap between key AI application companies and the S&P North American technology software companies has returned to historical highs, indicating a resurgence of market optimism driven by AI [1] Group 2 - The recent AI computing power market performance is supported by long-term industry trends, showcasing the multidimensional market demand for global AI applications, including significant potential in long-tail computing power demand and a growing preference for cost-effective lightweight AI models [2] - The software industry remains fundamentally stable with an upward trend, but marginal improvements are limited, as the proportion of companies exceeding revenue expectations is at a historical high, while AI has not yet contributed significantly to revenue growth [1][2] - The growth of API calls for large models has been driven by declining costs, validating the Jevons Paradox, which suggests that lower prices often precede increased downstream application demand [2] Group 3 - In the B-end AI applications, customized agents are emerging as the primary scenario for implementation, with significant commercial value accumulating over time, driven by the need for personalization and customization to meet complex work requirements [3] - Standardized protocols like MCP and Agent2Agent are facilitating the rapid development of agents, with cloud vendors and SaaS companies prioritizing agent development platforms [3]

光大证券的董事会已下设审计与关联交易控制委员会，该委员会在过去一年中发挥了重要作用，审议了包括年度报告、内部控制评价报告在内的多项议案。 根据新《公司法》的规定，审计委员会成员需过半数为独立董事，且不得与公司存在可能影响其独立判断的关系。目前，光大证券的审计与关联交易控制委 员会中，独立董事占据了三席。 随着监事会的撤销，光大证券的监事会成员将面临新的岗位安排。对于这部分员工是否将加入审计委员会，业内专家表示，这主要取决于他们的专业背景和 人事安排。如果具备必要的财务或法律专业资格，他们有可能被纳入审计委员会，继续发挥监督作用。 近日，光大证券在上海成功举办了其2025年度的第二次临时股东大会、首次A股类别股东大会及首次H股类别股东大会。会议期间，与会股东审议并通过了 三项重要议案，包括公司章程的修订、监事会的撤销以及募集资金管理的调整。 此次大会由光大证券董事长赵陵亲自主持，总裁刘秋明、副总裁兼合规总监朱勤等多位高管均出席了会议。现场氛围热烈，各项议程有条不紊地进行。 根据证监会关于新《公司法》配套制度规则实施的过渡期安排，上市公司需在2026年1月1日前，在公司章程中明确规定设立审计委员会，以替代原有的监 ...