证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03月 26日 珍酒李渡（06979.HK） 增长高质量，势能正当时 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 5856 7030 8540 10302 12159 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 14.8 20.1 21.5 20.6 18.0 归母净利润（百万元） 1029.87 2327.08 2028.61 2543.45 3088.50 行业 食品饮料 增长率yoy（%） -0.2 126.0 -12.8 25.4 21.4 2024年3月26日收盘价（港元） 10.900 ROE（%） -27.0 18.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 总市值（百万港元） 36,936.00 EPS最新摊薄（元） 0.30 0.69 0.60 0.75 0.91 流通市值（百万港元） 36,936.00 P/E（倍） 35.9 15.9 18.2 14.5 12.0 总股本（百万股） 3,388.62 P/B（倍） -9.7 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 流通股本（百万股） 3,388.62 资料来源： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 10.90 and a fair value of HKD 13.13, maintaining the previous "Buy" rating [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 7.03 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.1%, with an adjusted net profit of CNY 1.623 billion, up 35.5% year-on-year, meeting expectations [2]. - The overall gross margin increased by 2.71 percentage points to 58.02% in 2023, driven by product structure upgrades, cost reductions from self-brewed base liquor, and simplified packaging styles [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2024, with notable performance from its brands, particularly Zhenjiu and Lidu, which saw revenues of CNY 4.58 billion and CNY 1.11 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 19.9% and 25.1% [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2025 indicates revenues of CNY 8.507 billion, CNY 10.106 billion, and CNY 11.827 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 20.5%, 18.8%, and 17.0% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of CNY 7,059.71 million, with a growth rate of 20.1% compared to 2022 [4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was CNY 1,622.60 million, reflecting a growth rate of 35.5% [4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 58.02%, an increase from the previous year, attributed to various cost optimization strategies [2][4]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth of 20.5% in 2024, followed by 18.8% in 2025, and 17.0% in 2026 [4]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach CNY 2,051.38 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 26.4% [4]. Valuation - The report suggests a valuation based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a fair value estimate of HKD 13.13 per share [2].

2024年3月27日 公司研究 23 年顺利收官，成长势能强劲 ——珍酒李渡（6979.HK）2023 年度业绩点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：10.9港元 事件：珍酒李渡发布2023年度业绩，公司23年实现收入70.3亿元，同比增长 20.1%，经调整净利润16.2亿元，同比增长35.5%，符合此前发布的业绩预告， 同时，公司公告23年派发股息合计约6.1亿元港币。 作者 分析师：叶倩瑜 产品组合持续优化，珍酒品牌价增亮眼。公司 23 年业绩圆满达成指引，1）分 执业证书编号：S0930517100003 品牌看，23年珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑收入分别为45.8/11.1/8.3/3.8亿元，同比 021-52523657 增长19.9%/25.1%/17.0%/13.6%，珍酒品牌结构提升明显，销量略有减少、均 yeqianyu@ebscn.com 分析师：杨哲 价同比增幅达到 22%，珍三十、高端光瓶酒表现出色，同时公司顺应消费场景 执业证书编号：S0930522080001 变化、以老珍酒/映山红布局中端价位。当前珍酒产品结构清晰、23年公司针对 021-52523795 部分支线产品亦有优化。此 ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 食品饮料 2024年03月27日 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 珍 酒李渡（06979.HK）2023年报点评 强 推 （维持） 目标价：14港元 业绩有效兑现，增长趋势延续 当前价：10.9港元 事项： 华创证券研究所  公司公布 2023 年报，23 年实现总营收 70.3 亿元，同增 20.1%；归母净利润 /Non-GAAP净利润分别为23.3/16.2亿元，同增126%/35.5%。测算单H2，营 证券分析师：欧阳予 业总收入 35.1 亿元，同增 25.6%，归母净利润/Non-GAAP 净利润 7.4/8.2 亿 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 元，同增46.9%/52.0%。 执业编号：S0360520070001 评论： 证券分析师：沈昊  全系产品增势良好，珍酒系列价增显著。公司 23H2 收入/Non-GAAP 净利润 同增25.6%/52.0%，整体增势强劲。分品牌看，珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑收入分 邮箱：shenhao@hcyjs.com 别同增25.4%/32.6%/16.5%/24.9%。量价拆分看，珍酒量/价同增0.02%/25.42%， 执 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.03 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%. The Non-GAAP net profit reached 1.623 billion RMB, up 35.5% year-on-year. The proposed dividend is 0.18 HKD per share, totaling approximately 550 million RMB, which is about 34% of the Non-GAAP net profit [4][5]. - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2024-2026, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 2.014 billion RMB, 2.372 billion RMB, and 2.761 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 16% [4][5]. - The company focuses on the mid-to-high-end market segment, with strong growth potential for its key products, particularly "珍酒" and "李渡" brands, which are expected to continue their robust growth momentum [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 58%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for its main brands were 58% for "珍酒", 68.4% for "李渡", 59.1% for "湘窖", and 40.7% for "开口笑" [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 8.213 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach 2.014 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 24% [5][8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2023 was 2.116 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 23%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year [4][8].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 食品饮料 [ Table_Main[珍I Tnaf 酒bol]e 李_Ti渡tle]（ 6979） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持6979 当前价格（港元）： 10.56 珍酒发力，势能延续 2024.03.26 海 ——2023年年报点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 訾猛(分析师) 李美仪(研究助理) 52周内股价区间（港元） 6.92-12.84 当前股本（百万股） 3,389 公 021-38676442 021-38038667 当前市值（百万港元） 35,784 司 zimeng@gtjas.com limeiyi026738@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880513120002 S0880122070042 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司 2023年业绩符合预期，四大品牌各有亮点，产品结构持续提升叠加费率回落有 珍酒李渡 恒生指数 香 望释放利润弹性。2023年公司每股派息0.18港元，以经调整净利润计分红率约35%。 45% 摘要： 港 31% [ ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 7,030,467 thousand for the year ended December 31, 2023, representing a 20.1% increase compared to RMB 5,855,917 thousand in 2022[5]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,079,948 thousand, reflecting a 26.0% increase from RMB 3,238,930 thousand in the previous year[5]. - Net profit attributable to equity shareholders was RMB 2,327,083 thousand, a significant increase of 126.0% from RMB 1,029,866 thousand in 2022[5]. - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) reached RMB 1,622,602 thousand, up 35.5% from RMB 1,197,289 thousand in the prior year[5]. - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 361,226 thousand, a turnaround from a cash outflow of RMB 710,616 thousand in 2022, marking a 150.8% improvement[5]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was RMB 4,011,543 thousand, a substantial rise of 3,231.0% compared to RMB 120,431 thousand in the previous year[5]. - The gross margin improved to 58.0% in 2023 from 55.3% in 2022, while the net margin increased to 33.1% from 17.6%[7]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 2,115,587,000, compared to RMB 1,631,947,000 in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 29.6%[89]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 6,053,200,000, a substantial increase from RMB 1,683,400,000 in 2022[78]. - Basic earnings per share for the year were RMB 0.78, compared to RMB 0.44 in 2022, while diluted earnings per share were RMB 0.49, up from RMB 0.43[89]. Brand Performance - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, contributed approximately 65.2% of the company's revenue for the year ending December 31, 2023[18]. - Zhenjiu was ranked as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China by revenue in 2023, achieving the highest year-on-year growth rate among the top five brands[18]. - Li Du has achieved significant success and is the fifth largest mixed-flavor liquor brand in China by revenue as of 2023, contributing approximately 15.8% to the company's total revenue[21]. - Li Du's products have the highest year-on-year growth rate among the top five mixed-flavor liquor brands in China[21]. - Xiang Jiao contributed approximately 11.9% to the company's total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2023[23]. - Kai Kou Xiao contributed approximately 5.5% to the company's total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2023[24]. Product Development and Strategy - The company has implemented a dual-channel growth strategy, focusing on both traditional and emerging distribution channels to enhance market presence[11]. - New product launches in 2023 included several high-end and mid-range offerings, such as the Zhen 15 series and Zhen 30 series, which have received multiple international awards[19][20]. - The company has successfully optimized its product mix to increase revenue contributions from higher-margin products in the mid to high-end price range[16]. - The company aims to enhance overall production capacity by increasing storage for base liquor and semi-finished products across multiple production bases[43]. - The company plans to implement a dual-channel growth strategy for Zhenjiu and expand the product matrix for Li Du to support future growth[42]. Market Expansion and Distribution - The company has built a multi-channel sales network to effectively meet diverse consumer needs and expand consumer reach[28]. - As of December 31, 2023, the total number of distributors increased to 7,261, up from 6,618 in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 9.7%[30]. - The company has focused on maintaining healthy inventory levels among distributors to ensure optimal sales performance[16]. - The company aims to continue expanding its market share in key regions while selectively entering high-growth potential areas[11]. Corporate Governance and Sustainability - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind Information in August 2023, highlighting its commitment to sustainable practices[35]. - The company has complied with all corporate governance code provisions since the listing date[135]. - The board of directors includes both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring corporate governance[144]. - The company emphasizes ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices in its operations[144]. Financial Position and Assets - The company's total assets as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 12,882,193 thousand, compared to RMB 7,245,900 thousand in 2022, indicating a growth of 77.5%[90]. - The net current assets increased significantly to RMB 8,029,380 thousand from RMB 2,673,915 thousand, a rise of 200.5%[90]. - Non-current liabilities decreased to RMB 49,134 thousand from RMB 10,302,118 thousand, a reduction of 99.52%[91]. - The company's equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 12,675,754 thousand, compared to a deficit of RMB 3,815,214 thousand in 2022, indicating a turnaround in financial position[91]. Employee and Operational Insights - The company has established a comprehensive employee stock incentive plan in October 2023, covering all key personnel, to attract and retain top talent[10]. - The product development team consists of 233 employees, with most holding a bachelor's degree or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 61 industry experts[25]. - Employee costs rose to RMB 1,757,744,000 in 2023, a 43.8% increase from RMB 1,222,312,000 in 2022[108]. - The company had 11,008 full-time employees as of December 31, 2023, with employee costs for the year amounting to approximately RMB 1,687,700,000[87]. IPO and Capital Management - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023, marking the largest IPO in Hong Kong for the year and the first successful listing of a liquor company in nearly eight years[8]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.18 per share, totaling approximately HKD 609.95 million for the year ending December 31, 2023[131]. - The company has allocated 55% of the net proceeds (approximately HKD 2,744.5 million) for the construction and development of production facilities, with HKD 864.9 million already spent[132].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03月 11日 珍酒李渡（06979.HK） 23 年预期兑现，高成长有望延续 财务指标 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 5856 7161 8699 10494 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 14.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 Non-IFRS净利润（百万元） 1200 1619.26 2101.85 2697.88 行业 食品饮料 增长率yoy（%） 34.9 29.8 28.4 2024年3月11日收盘价（港元） 10.140 ROE（%） -31.5 -73.7 -2233.4 103.6 总市值（百万港元） 34,360.64 EPS最新摊薄（元） 0.35 0.48 0.62 0.80 流通市值（百万港元） 34,360.64 P/E（倍） 28.6 21.2 16.3 12.7 总股本（百万股） 3,388.62 P/B（倍） -9.0 -15.6 -365.1 13.2 流通股本（百万股） 3,388.62 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 近3月日均成交额（百万港元） 60.85 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 食品饮料 [ Table_Main[珍I Tnaf 酒bol]e 李_Ti渡tle]（ 6979） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 9.40 2023 圆满收官，2024 高增可期 2024.03.11 海 ——2023年业绩预增点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 訾猛(分析师) 李梓语(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 6.92-12.84 当前股本（百万股） 3,389 公 021-38676442 021-38032691 当前市值（百万港元） 31,853 司 zimeng@gtjas.com liziyu@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880513120002 S0880519080010 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 珍酒李渡2023年业绩符合预期，2024年开门红珍酒动销表现超预期奠定基础，李渡 珍酒李渡 恒生指数 核心单品换代升级有望持续高增，强品牌、强渠道下公司成长趋势有望延续。 香 45% 摘要： 港 31% [T 维abl持 ...

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 食品饮料 | 公司点评 23 年收入利润超预期 24 年全国化潜力验证 2024年3月11日 珍酒李渡(06979:HK) 事件：公司公告2023年盈利预告，2023年公司实现营业收入不低于70亿元（人民币， 买入 下同），测算同比增长不低于19.5%；净利润不低于23 亿元；Non-GAAP净利润不低于 16亿元，测算同比增长不低于33%。公司业绩略高于我们预期。 有业绩公布需要点评 投资分析意见：由于公司公告业绩快报略高于预期，且春节期间产品动销表现积极，略上 调盈利预测，预测 2023~2025 年珍酒实现营业收入 70.4/81.5/92.6 亿（前次为 69/80/90.7 亿），分别同比增长 20%/16%/14%，剔除股权激励、股份支付以及公允价 市场数据：2024年3月8日 值变动等影响后的Non-GAAP净利润分别为16.4/20/23.7亿（前次为16/20/23亿）， 收盘价（港币） 9.40 分别同比增长37%/22%/18%，对应PE分别为21/17/ ...