珍酒李渡(06979)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.16%，报10.27港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 此外，华泰证券表示，白酒板块估值和情绪均处于低位，当前基本面整体企稳，行业中秋旺季将至；同 时政府对提振内需关注度持续提升，促消费政策持续落地，为板块起到托底作用。展望来看，此轮调整 中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面筑底企稳，叠加促销费政策托底，行业正逐步进入良性修复 阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 消息面上，珍酒李渡发布2025年中期业绩，收入24.97亿元(人民币，下同)，同比减少39.58%；股东应占 溢利5.75亿元，同比减少23.54%。东吴证券指出，公司产品矩阵清晰，品牌及品质升级布局长远，组织 效能与渠道势能有望逐步显现。参考25H1收入表现，预计25H2报表降幅有望明显收窄，伴随大珍铺市 及需求复苏，看好珍酒报表拐点及盈利弹性率先显现。 ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：訾猛/颜慧菁/李美仪 本报告导读： 公司25H1 业绩符合预期，回款环比走弱， 盈利能力总体平稳。面对酒业下行，公司开创新产品、新模 式、新营销，新品贡献叠加基数走低有望带动下半年增速改善。 投资建议：维持增持评级。公司25H1业绩符合预期，新产品、新模式有望贡献增量，维持2025-2027 年 经调整EPS 预测值0.36 元、0.37 元、0.38 元，当前股价对应2025 年25X PE。 业绩符合预期。公司2025H1 实现收入25.0 亿元、同比-40%，经调整净利润6.1 亿元、同比-40%，此前 公告半年度业绩下滑40%左右，符合预期。25H1 整体毛利率59.0%、同比+0.2pct，销售费用率（销售及 经销开支/收入）22.2%、同比+0.4pct，经调整净利率24.6%、同比-0.1pct。预收客户款项环比回落， 24H1 末、24H2 末、25H1 末分别为17.9 亿元、17.5 亿元、14.3 亿元，反映出行业当前的经营压力。 公司25H1 经营净现金流-3.2 亿元，24H1 同期为5.7 亿元，除非现金和非经营科目调整外，预计还与动 销下滑及回款承压有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to high base effects, cyclical downturns, and market disruptions, while maintaining operational control and cost management [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year, while the non-IFRS net profit was 610 million RMB, reflecting a 39.8% decline [1] - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 24.6%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating strong cost and expense control [2] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - Revenue from the brands Zhenjiu, Lidu, and others fell by 44.8%, 9.4%, and 47.9% respectively, with Lidu managing to achieve some growth through enhanced marketing strategies [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increase in Lidu's revenue share [2] - The number of cooperative distributors decreased by 516, or 6.8%, as part of the company's strategy to stabilize channels [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen Zhenjiu, to drive sales growth and enhance market presence [3] - There is a focus on deepening the penetration of existing core products and strengthening the layout of mid-to-high-end products to capture dining demand [3] - The innovative "Wanshang Alliance" channel model for Dazhen aims to boost merchant confidence and drive sales through low entry barriers and high returns [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a narrowing of revenue decline in H2 2025, supported by the launch of Dazhen and a recovery in demand [2][3] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are set at 1.27 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding non-IFRS PE ratios of 24.0, 19.0, and 15.5x [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - More than 10 listed liquor companies reported their semi-annual results, showing a general decline in performance among second-tier liquor brands, with many experiencing significant setbacks [1] - First-tier liquor brands continue to launch new products and upgrade existing ones to capture market share [1] Group 2: New Product Launches - Moutai's new product, Moutai 1935, is positioned as a high-end offering with a price of 998 yuan for 500ml, set to launch on August 28 [2] - Wuliangye is set to launch a new 29-degree product called "Wuliangye·Yijianqingxin" this week, with three different flavor samples previously tested [3] - Shede Liquor will introduce its first low-alcohol, high-flavor aged liquor, "Shede Zizai," also at 29 degrees, on August 30 [3] - Gujing Gongjiu has launched a new low-alcohol product, "Gujing Gongjiu·Nianfen Yuanjiang Qingdu 20," with an alcohol content of 26 degrees, priced at 375 yuan for 375ml [3] Group 3: Company Performance - China Resources Beer reported a 0.8% increase in revenue to 23.942 billion yuan, with a 23% rise in net profit to 5.789 billion yuan, while beer sales grew by 2.2% [6] - Jinhui Liquor achieved a revenue of 1.759 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.31%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, up 1.12% [7] - Shede Liquor's revenue fell by 17.41% to 2.701 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 24.98% [9] - Jiu Gui Jiu reported a 43.54% drop in revenue to 561 million yuan and a 92.6% decline in net profit [10] - Tian You De Jiu's revenue decreased by 11.24% to 674 million yuan, with a net profit drop of 35.37% [10] - Huazhi Liquor's revenue fell by 33.55% to 3.949 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 63.75% [11] - Kouzi Jiao's revenue decreased by 20.07% to 2.531 billion yuan, with a net profit drop of 24.63% [12] - Kuaijishan reported an 11.03% increase in revenue to 817 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 3.41% [13] - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue fell by 39.6% to 2.497 billion yuan, but the gross margin increased to 59% [14]

八月以来的港股市场，珍酒李渡(6979.HK)股价走势成为一道独特风景线。 富途行情显示，珍酒李渡股价从8月1日收盘的6.46港元一路攀升，轻松突破10港元关口，截至21日收 盘，公司股价10.07港元/股，月内累计上涨超50%，市值涨超100亿元，引发广泛关注。 资本市场不会无缘无故地狂热，每一分钱的投入都是经过精密算计的审慎选择。这不禁让人发问：在整 个白酒行业仍处深度调整期，消费复苏态势不明的宏观背景下，是什么让珍酒李渡获得投资者真金白银 的"投票"？ 珍酒李渡毛利率持续增长并非偶然，背后是公司规模效应持续释放、产品结构持续优化、人效比持续提 升的直接成果。它证明了企业内在经营质量的提升，即便在逆风之中，也保有更强的盈利韧性和防御能 力，这为投资者提供了最基础的安全边际。 这一"降中有升"的微妙对比，也成为敏锐投资者捕捉到的第一个积极信号。 △珍酒李渡近期股价走势图 主动进化：产品+商业模式创新 在笔者看来，答案或许就藏在公司刚刚披露的2025年上半年业绩之中。 逆势显韧性：毛利率提升背后的经营底气 财报显示，珍酒李渡上半年实现收入24.97亿元，同比下降39.6%；经调整净利润为6.13亿元，同比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and strategic adjustments of Zhenjiu Lidu in the face of industry challenges, showcasing its strong performance and potential for future growth [1][4][13]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhenjiu Lidu achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan [1][4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, maintaining growth for three consecutive years [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating ongoing improvements in operational quality [4]. Market Strategy - Zhenjiu Lidu is implementing proactive adjustments to navigate the industry's challenges, focusing on "bending the curve" to enhance its market position [3][5]. - The company is maintaining a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices, with a ton price of 273,700 yuan, reflecting a commitment to price stability [4][5]. - The introduction of the "Wan Shang Alliance" model aims to create a new ecosystem for distribution channels, attracting over 6,100 potential clients and signing more than 2,000 [10][12]. Product Development - The launch of the "Dazhen" product and the new craft beer "Niu Shi News" reflects Zhenjiu Lidu's strategy to create cultural IPs that resonate with younger consumers [6][12]. - The company is focusing on differentiating its products through unique pricing strategies and cultural narratives, appealing to both traditional and new consumer bases [8][12]. Industry Positioning - Zhenjiu Lidu's performance and innovative practices position it as a model for other companies in the industry, especially during a period of market adjustment [13][15]. - The company's successful listing and performance have instilled confidence in the capital market, potentially encouraging more liquor companies to pursue similar paths [15].

Core Insights - The entry of liquor companies into the craft beer market is a response to the stagnation in the traditional liquor market and the significant growth potential of the craft beer sector [5][6] - Major liquor brands like Zhenjiu Liduo and Wuliangye are launching their own craft beer products, indicating a trend of diversification within the industry [4][6] Company Developments - Zhenjiu Liduo has launched a high-end craft beer named "Niu Shi" priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle, with over 300 sales recorded on Taobao [1][3] - Wuliangye's subsidiary, Xianlin Ecological Wine Industry, has introduced a new craft beer brand "Fenghuolun" targeting the mid-to-high-end market, priced at 19.5 yuan per bottle [4] - Other liquor companies, such as Luzhou Laojiao, have also ventured into the craft beer space, indicating a broader trend among liquor firms [4] Market Trends - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from approximately 100 billion yuan in 2020 to between 300 billion and 400 billion yuan in 2023, highlighting its rapid expansion [6] - The craft beer sector is expected to continue leading growth within the overall beer industry over the next five years [6] Consumer Dynamics - The entry of liquor companies into the craft beer market aims to attract younger consumers and meet diverse consumer preferences [7][8] - The challenge remains in adapting existing liquor sales channels to effectively market and sell craft beer products [8][9] Challenges and Considerations - Liquor companies face difficulties in channel adaptation and product positioning to capture market share in the craft beer segment [8][9] - The high pricing of craft beer products, such as the "Niu Shi" beer, may pose a challenge in consumer acceptance, as the average price for craft beer in China is around 60 yuan per cup [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively managing pressure and maintaining stability, with a focus on strategic adjustments to cope with market challenges [8] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to decline significantly, but the company is implementing measures to stabilize channels and optimize inventory [8] - The introduction of a new flagship product, "Da Zhen," aims to drive sales growth and enhance brand recognition [8] - The company anticipates a narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, supported by improved market conditions and new product contributions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,060 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 2,327 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 125.96% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 1,623 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 35.52% [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.69 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.11 [1] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a stable gross margin and effective cost management, with a gross profit margin of 58.63% for 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a sequential decline in cash receipts, but overall profitability remained stable. The introduction of new products, new models, and new marketing strategies is expected to drive growth in the second half of the year as the contribution from new products combined with a lower base is anticipated to improve growth rates [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,030 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 27.8% in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years with growth rates of 4.5% and 5.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][11]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,623 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 35.5% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 27.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in the following years [4][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 25.11 in 2025, indicating a higher valuation compared to previous years [4][11]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The adjusted net profit was 610 million RMB, also down 40% year-on-year, aligning with prior announcements regarding performance [10]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 59.0%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The sales expense ratio was 22.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Zhenjiu" in the first half of 2025 was 1.49 billion RMB, down 45% year-on-year. The "Lidu" brand generated 610 million RMB, a decline of 9% year-on-year, while "Xiangjiao" and "Kaikouxiao" saw declines of 39% and 64% respectively [10]. - The high-end and next-high-end liquor segments experienced significant revenue declines of 47% and 42% respectively, attributed to weak demand and ongoing impacts from drinking policies [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has been cautious in its shipping pace to alleviate channel inventory pressure amid significant industry downturns since the second half of 2024. New product launches and innovative business models are being implemented to enhance market presence and drive sales [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, reported a solid performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, which aligns with market expectations and reflects a stable market foundation [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6%, indicating sustained operational quality [4]. - The average price per ton of liquor was 273,700 yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, demonstrating the effectiveness of the company's price stabilization strategy [4]. Group 2: Sales and Market Position - Sales volume of the core brand, Lidu, reached 1,752 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, reflecting enhanced market recognition [4]. - The company is ranked fourth in the industry in terms of liquor pricing, with a ton price of 270,000 yuan in 2023 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Dazhen Zhenjiu" product aimed at diversifying the product lineup, priced at 600 yuan, competes with products priced at 3,000 yuan, catering to consumer demand for high quality at a reasonable price [7]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" model was introduced to restructure the manufacturer-distributor ecosystem, with over 2,000 contracts signed and more than 6,100 potential clients engaged within 100 days of the initiative [9]. - The introduction of the high-end craft beer "Niushi News" at 88 yuan per bottle represents a cross-industry innovation, creating a dual business model of liquor and beer [11]. Group 4: Market Recognition and Future Outlook - The company's transformations, including the successful launch of "Dazhen," the establishment of the "Wanshang Alliance," and the introduction of "Niushi," have garnered recognition from capital markets, with several brokerage firms issuing "buy" ratings [12]. - Investment institutions have shown confidence in the company, as evidenced by a significant stock price increase of over 50% from 6.46 HKD to 10.07 HKD per share between August 1 and August 21, with a trading volume of 3.904 billion yuan [14].