白酒半年报复盘及周期推演 20250923 摘要 中秋国庆礼赠市场量价齐跌，河南百荣市场调研显示，礼品需求减少， 人均采购支出下降，礼盒价格低于年初水平，预示白酒需求受影响。 白酒行业二季度收入和净利润分别下滑 5%和 8%，毛利率提升放缓，费 用率优化不足，净利率降至四年低位，实际动销下滑幅度与报表数据存 在温差，市场预期或进一步调整。 二季度白酒企业合同负债和销售收款同比环比均下降，反映下游回款意 愿和能力不足，批价倒挂和渠道压力加剧，品牌强势但下游承压。 白酒行业增速、盈利能力受限，二季度报表反映真实环境但未达预期， 头部公司全年目标承压，下半年报表或面临进一步调整，目标调整可能 性增加。 历史复盘显示，批价底对股价支撑更强。本轮周期茅台合理价格区间在 1,500-1,800 元，目前价格接近经销商成本线，但未达测算低点，中秋 国庆动销情况不明朗，难以判断具体走势。 茅台经销商队伍稳定，财务状况良好，减少恐慌性抛售风险。预计三季 度白酒行业收入和净利润增速将进一步下降，或预示行业接近周期性低 点。 河南百荣市场调研结果显示了什么？ Q&A 近期白酒市场的渠道跟踪情况如何？ 从 8 月份以来，白酒市场的渠 ...

看懂白酒机会，看懂白酒周期，看懂白酒逻辑，这一个视频就够了！华创证券研究所所长董广阳深度解析白酒行业第四次范式大转换，结合历史周期与当前低 估值、高股息特征，探讨底部区域信号及未来可能的新周期起点。 白酒一旦 进入向上周期 持续的时间 上升的弹性幅度 都会远超想象 今年又是一个新周期的开始？ 白酒行业正在经历第四次范式大转换 新 经济 学 家 智 库 x T A I X U E x 董广阳 （点击下方观看视频） 大家好，非常高兴跟大家分享我的观点和看法。过去这几年整个消费行业，白酒、大家电的消费都调整了好几年，而新消费又如火如荼，简直 是冰火两重天。 在这样的情况下，还是有蛮多的朋友跟我交流，问："白酒还能看吗？年轻人都不喝白酒了是吧？上 了桌之后 白酒还该怎么办？"其实跟10年 前或者20年前有 所 相似，但同时又 产生 了一些新的问题。 因为时代背景不同了，所以我今天向大家汇报一下我自己的看法。首先，我觉得确实要认真理解现在这个新的时代。在这样一个时代背景下， 我们 去定位这个行业，再到定位行业内的结构和相关的公司。 ▼ 欢迎点击观看 大 的宏观背景可能大家也都基本能理解，涉及国内和国外两方面，确实跟以前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai has delivered a mid-year financial report that reflects both stability and pressure amid a challenging macroeconomic environment and industry adjustments [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, total revenue reached 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2] - In the second quarter, revenue was 38.788 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.28%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.555 billion yuan, increasing by 5.25% [2] - Moutai's revenue from liquor sales was 75.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [7] Market Environment - The macroeconomic and cyclical pressures in the liquor industry remain unchanged, particularly during the traditional off-season in the second quarter [3] - The company adopted a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices, facing challenges from high inventory and cash flow pressures in the distribution channels [3][4] Sales and Distribution - The total contract liabilities decreased significantly from 10 billion yuan last year to 5.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 45% [3] - Actual sales revenue in the second quarter saw a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, aligning with a 4.6% drop in sales cash receipts [3] - The company is focusing on stabilizing the pricing strategy for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai, while optimizing channel and product structures to explore new growth opportunities [5] Product Strategy - Moutai has increased the market supply of 1L products and introduced new offerings such as the Snake Year Zodiac Moutai and the Shengle Feitian series to cater to diverse consumer demands [5][8] - The introduction of non-standard products and the sale of kilogram-packaged Feitian Moutai have partially mitigated the impact of volume control on the 500ml Feitian Moutai [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company's operating cash flow net amount dropped significantly by 64.2%, from 36.6 billion yuan last year to 13.1 billion yuan [11] - This decline is attributed to reduced deposits from group member units and increased statutory reserves and non-withdrawable interbank deposits [12] Distribution Channels - Revenue from direct sales channels grew by 18.62% to 40 billion yuan, with iMoutai contributing 10.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [9] - The number of domestic distributors reached 2,280, with a net increase of 137, marking a recent high [10]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure, with significant short-term performance decline for Zhenjiu and Lidu, as they focus on market relief and inventory control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu and Lidu expect revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in liquor consumption is attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policy impacts, particularly affecting business banquets, social gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios [1] - The high-end product segment, particularly Zhen30 and above, is impacted by downward price adjustments in premium liquor, leading to a focus on volume control and price stabilization [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen, in June 2025, targeting a market gap between Zhen15 and Zhen30, with positive sales progress expected [2] - The chairman is actively promoting the brand through personal marketing efforts on social media platforms [2] - The company aims to enhance its existing flagship products' competitive edge through refined sales strategies and increased market penetration [2] Group 4: Product Expansion - A high-end beer brand named "Niushi" is set to launch on August 8, with the first product priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle [2] - The company is focusing on emerging consumer trends and plans to develop products tailored for specific occasions like birthdays and weddings [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a rare listed entity in the liquor sector, with strong operational momentum and significant future growth potential [2] - Zhenjiu is positioned in the second tier of the liquor market, with opportunities to leverage brand and channel advantages in a concentrated market [2] - Lidu is seen as a rising star in the high-end segment, with innovative marketing strategies enhancing its market presence [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges due to a combination of policy adjustments, changes in consumer behavior, and intense competition, leading to decreased demand, falling prices, weakened consumption scenarios, and high inventory levels [1] - Many listed liquor companies have reported poor performance in the first quarter, with notable declines in revenue and profits [1][2] Industry Performance - Six A-share liquor companies have issued profit warnings for the first half of the year, with Water Well expected to see a revenue decline of 12.84% and a net profit drop of 56.52%, while other companies like Jiu Gui and Huang Tai are also experiencing significant losses [1] - The overall performance of the liquor industry is undergoing a phase of adjustment, which is seen as a natural response to the current market pressures [3] Resilience and Recovery - The liquor industry has historically shown resilience and the ability to recover from downturns, with companies that survive downturns often reaching new heights in subsequent cycles [5] - Companies with strong fundamentals, such as Zhen Jiu Li Du, are expected to perform better during this adjustment period due to their stable market position and proactive strategies [7] Strategic Innovations - Zhen Jiu Li Du is adapting to market changes by launching products that offer high quality at competitive prices, such as the "Da Zhen・Zhen Jiu," which targets consumers seeking value [9] - The company is also reforming its distribution channels by collaborating with high-quality distributors and exploring new sales avenues, including corporate group purchases and cross-industry partnerships [9] Market Outlook - The global capital market is experiencing volatility, but there is optimism for recovery, with significant gains in major indices since April [10] - The liquor sector is currently undervalued, with a low fund holding ratio and attractive dividend yields, making it a potential target for investment as market conditions improve [11][14] Investment Appeal - Zhen Jiu Li Du's current valuation is competitive compared to leading A-share liquor companies, and its strong cash flow and dividend history enhance its attractiveness to investors [15] - The combination of low valuation and resilient performance positions Zhen Jiu Li Du favorably in a turbulent market, likely attracting more investment [15][17] Conclusion - Despite current challenges, the liquor industry is expected to rebound as economic conditions improve and consumer confidence returns, with Zhen Jiu Li Du positioned to lead this recovery [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Kweichow Moutai's stock price has raised concerns, with a drop of nearly 13% from its peak of 1645 CNY per share to 1427 CNY, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][3][4] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai's stock has been in a weak downward trend for over four years since reaching a historical high of 2400 CNY in early 2021, with a decline of more than 40% from that peak [3][4] - The overall performance of the liquor sector has been poor, with Kweichow Moutai and other leading liquor companies experiencing significant declines in stock prices, with Moutai down 12.56% over the past 20 trading days [10][11] Group 2: Policy Impact - A new regulation effective from May 18, 2025, prohibits the serving of liquor at official meals for civil servants, which has drastically changed market expectations for future liquor consumption [6][7] - Despite a reduced reliance on government consumption, the loss of this segment is expected to impact broader business and social dining scenarios [8][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing a contraction in consumption scenarios, exacerbated by the new regulations, leading to a significant drop in wholesale sales [10][12] - Kweichow Moutai's wholesale prices have been declining, with the price for a case dropping to 2025 CNY and for individual bottles to 1960 CNY, marking a decline of over 12% compared to earlier this year [14][16] Group 4: Inventory and Supply - Current inventory levels for Kweichow Moutai are substantial, with approximately 120 million bottles in circulation and production capacity expected to add another 130 million bottles, indicating a potential oversupply [17] - Reports indicate that the liquor wholesale price index has been below 100 since last year, with a 12.5% year-on-year decline in production as of March [18][20] Group 5: Consumer Trends - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 13% of young consumers preferring liquor over other beverages, leading to a significant generational gap in consumption [26][30] - New consumption trends favor lighter beverages and experiences, with younger consumers increasingly gravitating towards products that align with their lifestyle preferences [28][29] Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry has matured over the past two decades, transitioning through various phases, and is now characterized by a strong competitive landscape [24][25] - Despite attempts by liquor companies to innovate and adapt, such as Kweichow Moutai's forays into cross-industry products, these efforts have not gained significant traction [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 annual shareholders' meeting of Kweichow Moutai showcased strong investor engagement and management's commitment to navigating the current adjustment cycle in the liquor industry while maintaining growth and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Engagement - Over 1,400 shareholders attended the meeting, leading to a venue change due to high registration numbers, reflecting strong loyalty among long-term investors [1]. - Management adopted a welcoming approach, treating shareholders like family, with dedicated transport and hospitality services [1]. - The management team, including Chairman Zhang Deqin, actively engaged with shareholders, expressing gratitude and addressing their concerns [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan and a net profit of 86.228 billion yuan for 2024, achieving over 15% growth and setting new historical records [3]. - The company’s dividend distribution plan was overwhelmingly approved, with a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 34.671 billion yuan [10]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining confidence and resilience to navigate the current liquor industry cycle, citing past successes in overcoming challenges [6][7]. - The company plans to enhance its marketing strategies and focus on internationalization and youth engagement as part of its medium- to long-term strategies [8][9]. - Kweichow Moutai aims to build a more resilient ecosystem by understanding stakeholder needs and fostering a collaborative environment [9]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Value Creation - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a share buyback program, with plans to repurchase shares worth up to 6 billion yuan, having already completed a significant portion of this plan [12]. - The company’s commitment to value creation is evident in its consistent dividend increases and share repurchase initiatives, reinforcing investor confidence [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has demonstrated strong performance in 2024, achieving all core indicators above the initial target of approximately 15% growth, despite challenges in the broader liquor industry [3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15.66%, and a net profit of about 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.56% [7]. - The cash flow from operating activities reached 92.46 billion yuan, marking a 38.85% increase [14]. Industry Context - The liquor market is currently facing increased competition and a shift to a stock competition phase, with 8 out of 24 listed liquor companies experiencing revenue declines in 2024 [8]. - Despite the challenges, the fundamental demand for liquor remains, providing a basis for future growth in the industry [9]. Strategic Insights - Chairman Zhang Deqin emphasized three beliefs regarding the liquor industry: confidence in Moutai's quality and culture, belief in its innovation and adaptability, and trust in its service capabilities [8]. - The company is transitioning from a focus on scale to prioritizing quality, adapting to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions [9]. Product and Market Development - Moutai's flagship product continues to be a strong revenue driver, with revenue from Moutai liquor reaching 145.93 billion yuan, a 15.28% increase, while the Moutai 1935 series generated over 24.6 billion yuan, growing 19.65% [13]. - The company is implementing a three-step internationalization strategy, with overseas revenue surpassing 5.19 billion yuan in 2024 [18]. Management and Governance - Zhang Deqin's leadership has been characterized by practical approaches to market changes, focusing on consumer demographics and service enhancements [11]. - The management team is committed to maintaining a strong brand identity and quality standards, which are seen as essential for navigating current market challenges [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, has demonstrated resilience through multiple cyclical fluctuations over the past 30 years, and while currently facing challenges, it is expected to recover and grow again in the long term [1][2][3]. Industry Cycles - The baijiu industry has experienced four significant cycles since 1988, including rapid growth, adjustments due to economic crises, and a "golden decade" of growth from 2009 to 2012, followed by a downturn due to regulatory changes and scandals [1]. - Currently, the industry is in its fourth cycle, characterized by declining business demand, extended inventory turnover, and challenges for smaller enterprises, while leading companies are managing prices through volume control [1][3]. Recovery Expectations - Industry experts predict that 2025 will mark the bottoming phase of the fourth cycle, with signs of stabilization in demand and a narrowing decline in production [3][4]. - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association forecasts improved overall conditions for the baijiu market in 2025 compared to 2024, supported by policy easing and economic recovery [3]. Capital Market Dynamics - The baijiu sector has seen significant capital market activity, with several companies announcing share buybacks and increases in shareholdings, amounting to a total of 8.666 billion yuan [6][7]. - The ongoing "quality improvement and return to value" initiative has led to increased funding for leading baijiu companies, enhancing their market positions and attracting long-term institutional investments [7][8]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Experts emphasize the importance of a long-term investment approach in the baijiu sector, highlighting its potential for steady growth despite short-term volatility [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the intrinsic value of baijiu companies, including brand strength and product quality, while being mindful of industry cycles for optimal investment strategies [9]. Quality and Cultural Innovation - The baijiu industry is focusing on maintaining product quality while innovating in flavors and marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [10][11]. - Companies are leveraging cultural heritage and consumer engagement through events and immersive experiences to enhance brand loyalty and expand market reach [10][11].