Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing unprecedented operational challenges in 2024, characterized by a "double whammy" of declining volume and price due to weak consumer demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a revenue of 7.067 billion RMB in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 3.3% to 1.676 billion RMB [2][3]. - Shareholders' net profit plummeted by 43.1% to 1.324 billion RMB, primarily due to changes in the fair value of non-operating financial instruments [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant revenue decline in the second half of 2024, with a 16.46% drop compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. Brand Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu's main brand, Zhenjiu, accounted for 63.4% of total revenue in 2024, down from 65.2% the previous year, while the Li Du brand saw an increase to 18.6% [7]. - The revenue from the Zhenjiu brand decreased by 2.25% to 4.48 billion RMB, attributed to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in product expansion [7][8]. - Li Du brand revenue increased by 18.3% to 1.313 billion RMB, helping to offset declines from other brands [8]. Inventory and Production - Zhenjiu Lidu's inventory reached a record high of 7.503 billion RMB, a 17.54% increase year-on-year, indicating challenges in revenue growth despite stable sales [12]. - The company has continued to expand production capacity, with new facilities coming online in 2024, increasing the annual production capacity of its flagship products [11]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end market penetration, but this strategy has led to increased sales expenses, which reached 1.611 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 22.8% of revenue [17]. - Zhenjiu Lidu is implementing a diversified marketing strategy to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement, including experiential marketing and high-end tasting events [16][21]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is transitioning from an incremental growth phase to a more competitive, saturated market, necessitating a shift towards premiumization and brand differentiation [20][21]. - The overall profitability of Zhenjiu Lidu remains under pressure, with its gross margin at 58.6%, which is lower compared to industry leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to focus on long-term quality growth while actively managing inventory levels, leading to a projected revenue of 70.67 billion yuan for 2024, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates a challenging second half of 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 16.5% to 29.34 billion yuan, driven by a decrease in sales volume and a slight increase in price per ton [1][2]. - The company is strategically simplifying its product lines, particularly in the high-end segment, to stabilize market prices and ensure long-term development [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For 2024H2, the company expects a revenue of 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5%, and a net profit of 5.72 billion yuan, down 22.9% [1]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 58.44%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the release of self-owned production capacity and a focus on high-margin products [3]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased to 22.44%, down 0.92 percentage points, primarily due to increased management expenses related to depreciation and amortization [3]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on a dual-channel growth strategy, enhancing its presence in key markets while optimizing its organizational structure to support high-end product development [2][4]. - The company plans to adjust its product offerings to emphasize mid-range and high-end price points, aiming to capture changing consumer demands [4]. - The company has increased its number of distribution partners and retail outlets, indicating a commitment to expanding its market reach [2]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 73.28 billion yuan, 81.00 billion yuan, and 87.86 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the ongoing industry adjustment [4]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.25 billion yuan, 18.20 billion yuan, and 23.05 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.5, and 9.9 [4].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 珍酒李渡（06979） 证券研究报告 24H2 着眼长线主动降速，25 年高质量增长可期 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润 分别为 70.67/13.24/16.76 亿元（同比+0.5%/-43.1%/+3.3%），其中 2024H2 公司收入/归母净利润/经调净利润分别为 29.34/5.72/6.58 亿元（同比 -16.5%/-22.9%/-19.8%）。 24H2 主动去库保证渠道良性，高端聚焦主品结构阶段承压。2024H2 公司 实现营收 29.34 亿元（同比-16.46%），销量/吨价分别同比-16.79%/+0.40%。 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 必需性消费/食物饮品 | | 6 个月评级 | 买入（维持评级） | | 当前价格 | 7.26 港元 | | 目标价格 | 港元 | 分品牌看，2024H2 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/开口笑营收分别为 17.77/6.38/3.50/1.13 亿元（同比-21.95%/+2.91%/-10.64%/-31.02%）。 分价格带看，2024H2 ...

在金融市场，"万物皆周期"的理论屡试不爽，即便是白酒行业的30年"老将"吴向东，也难以逃脱周期调整的规律。 3月20日晚间，吴向东董事长名下的上市公司"港股白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布了2024年财报，数据透露出明显的下滑趋 势。 财报显示，珍酒李渡营业收入达到70.7亿元，同比微增0.5%；然而，归母净利润却大幅下滑43.1%，降至13.24亿元，主 要受非经营性金融工具公允价值变动的影响。若经调整，净利润为16.8亿元，同比增长3.3%。 30年"老将"吴向东也无奈！珍酒李渡2024年归母净利润骤减 四成，珍酒销量连续连续四年下滑 从五年行业数据来看，珍酒李渡的归母净利润回到了2022至2023年间的水平，而营业收入的增长幅度，在2022年增长 14.79%、2023年增长20.06%的基础上，已大幅放缓。 珍酒李渡利润营收、利润变动的背后，是当前白酒行业正处于深度调整周期。公司核心品牌增长停滞、高端化不足的 问题日益凸显。 作为白酒行业的"教父"，吴向东通过一系列收购和整合，构建了珍酒、李渡、湘窖及开口笑四个品牌的基本架构。然 而，在2024年，仅李渡品牌实现了营收增长，其余三个品牌均在下滑。 此外，珍酒李 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB for the year 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 2.93 billion RMB, down 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end and next-high-end products, with revenue from high-end products decreasing by 11% to 1.71 billion RMB, while next-high-end products saw a 9% increase to 3.00 billion RMB [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.07 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit of 1.68 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.3% increase [1]. - The second half of 2024 experienced a revenue drop to 2.93 billion RMB, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million RMB, down 19.7% [1]. Operational Analysis - Revenue by product for 2024: Zhenjiu 4.48 billion RMB (-2%), Lidou 1.31 billion RMB (+18%), Xiangjiao 800 million RMB (-4%), and Kaikouxiao 340 million RMB (-12%) [2]. - The company adjusted its market expansion strategy, slowing down the growth of Zhenjiu and focusing on high-end products, which still showed double-digit growth [2][3]. Financial Quality - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 0.6 percentage points to 58.6%, with adjusted net profit margin rising to 23.7% [3]. - The company reported a year-end balance of 6.9 billion RMB in accrued rebates and 1.75 billion RMB in advance customer payments, showing a slight increase and decrease respectively compared to the previous year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a revenue growth of 3.0% in 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 17.1% to 1.55 billion RMB [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0X for 2025, 13.3X for 2026, and 10.6X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,066,784 thousand, representing a 0.5% increase from RMB 7,030,467 thousand in 2023[7] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,143,040 thousand, up 1.5% from RMB 4,079,948 thousand in 2023[7] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year decreased by 43.1% to RMB 1,323,622 thousand from RMB 2,327,083 thousand in 2023[7] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) increased by 3.3% to RMB 1,676,275 thousand from RMB 1,622,602 thousand in 2023[7] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 116.3% to RMB 781,003 thousand from RMB 361,226 thousand in 2023[7] - The gross margin improved to 58.6% in 2024 from 58.0% in 2023, while the net margin decreased to 18.7% from 33.1%[10] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 1,323.6 million for the year, compared to RMB 2,327.1 million in 2023, a decline of 43.2%[96] - Total revenue for the year 2024 reached RMB 7,066,784,000, a slight increase from RMB 7,030,467,000 in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 0.5%[106] - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 1,894,332,000 for 2024, down from RMB 2,885,682,000 in 2023, representing a decline of 34.4%[113] Brand Performance - The flagship brand, Zhenjiu, contributed approximately 63.4% of the company's revenue as of December 31, 2024, maintaining its position as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China[20] - Revenue from the brand Zhenjiu decreased by 2.3% to RMB 4,479.7 million, primarily due to adjustments in sales channels and a strategic reduction in lower-margin products[59] - Revenue from the brand Lidu increased by 18.3% to RMB 1,312.9 million, driven by the growth of core products and expansion into markets outside Jiangxi Province[59] - Revenue from the brand Xiangjiao decreased by 3.7% to RMB 802.5 million, with a decline in sales of the strong aroma series partially offset by growth in the Longjiang series[59] - Revenue from the brand Kaikouxiao decreased by 12.3% to RMB 337.4 million, impacted by a sluggish wedding market and a reduction in low-margin product sales[59] Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to expand into new consumption scenarios and explore cross-industry collaborations, particularly in business and tourism sectors[13] - The company plans to expand its sales channels and high-end customer base, with a focus on developing diverse consumption scenarios and cross-industry collaborations[17] - The company is strategically expanding its market presence beyond Jiangxi Province while continuing to enhance its product matrix with more mid-to-high-end offerings[26] - The company aims to support the application for the inclusion of Chinese liquor in the World Cultural Heritage tentative list, collaborating with other leading liquor enterprises[25] - The company is expanding its brand presence internationally, with events in Hong Kong and Japan to promote the Li Du brand[47] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched new product lines in 2024, including the 2013 True Vintage Liquor and Qianli Tiaoyi, enhancing its market penetration in the high-end segment[22] - The company launched upgraded versions of its main product lines, including the second generation of Li Du Sorghum 1955 and 1975, and successfully introduced a high-end product, Li Du Sorghum 1308, which won the Grand Gold Medal at the ISGC 2024 International Spirits (China) Awards shortly after its launch[26] - The company has established strategic partnerships with several universities and research institutions to enhance product R&D capabilities, including a strategic cooperation agreement with Guizhou University in 2024[32] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and expanding its mid-range and above product lines to adapt to market demand[61] Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a modern equity incentive plan post-IPO to maximize team effectiveness and has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency[4] - A comprehensive digital management system has been implemented to streamline operations and improve overall profitability through data analysis[38] - The company launched a quality management system in 2024, covering all aspects of production quality, which enhances batch quality management and traceability[39] - The company developed a channel management platform to enhance transparency and efficiency in the distribution process, allowing distributors to manage procurement and inventory effectively[40] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to ESG initiatives, including replacing ceramic bottles with glass bottles to reduce energy consumption and improve sustainability[48] - The company aims for over 50% of its energy consumption to come from renewable sources by 2024, as part of its sustainability initiatives[49] - The company received an ESG "AA" rating from Wind Information and was included in the top 100 ESG best practices list in China[50] - The company is committed to improving energy efficiency and reducing consumption intensity across various resources, contributing to significant cost savings[49] Financial Management - The company has sufficient base liquor inventory to support rapid growth in its mid-range and premium product lines, enhancing competitiveness in the market[33] - The number of distribution partners increased from 2,938 in 2023 to 3,204 in 2024, while retail partners rose from 3,143 to 3,334, indicating a robust expansion of the distribution network[37] - Cash generated from operating activities was approximately RMB 781.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, after adjustments for non-cash and non-operating items[84] - As of December 31, 2024, bank deposits and cash amounted to RMB 6,202.2 million, compared to RMB 6,053.2 million as of December 31, 2023, while bank and other borrowings increased to RMB 510.2 million from RMB 36.6 million[85] Employee and Organizational Structure - The company had 11,380 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, an increase from 10,956 employees as of June 30, 2024[93] - The total employee costs for the year amounted to approximately RMB 2,224.4 million, reflecting the company's investment in workforce development[93] - The product development team consists of 252 employees, with a significant majority holding bachelor's degrees or higher, and is led by a technical committee of 78 renowned liquor experts[30] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes both executive and independent non-executive members, ensuring corporate governance compliance[153] - The audit committee has reviewed the audited financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, confirming consistency with the financial statements[148] - The company is registered in the Cayman Islands and was established on September 24, 2021[150] - The company’s shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 27, 2023[151]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 12 日 珍酒李渡（06979.HK） 五十年酿一壶好酒，启新程攀世界一流 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5856 | 7030 | 7501 | 8274 | 9254 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 14.8 | 20.1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 11.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1029.87 | 2327.08 | 1592.45 | 2005.12 | 2414.22 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -0.2 | 126.0 | -31.6 | 25.9 | 20.4 | | ROE（%） | -27.0 | 18.4 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 12.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.30 | 0.69 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.71 | | P/E（倍） | 24.9 | 11.0 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 10.6 | ...

数据来源：公司公告、东吴证券研究所 图17：珍酒渠道通小程序示意图 数据来源：公司公告、东吴证券研究所 东吴证券研究所 24 / 43 3. 酱酒行业：聚势谋远，穿越周期 1）横向对比酱香与浓香酒，酱酒行业二、三梯队酒企的品牌集中度仍处爬坡提升 初期，主要酱酒单品未来仍然具备产品周期及渠道资源优势，因此，兼具精细管理、精 准执行、精益品质的优质酱酒品牌，未来在次高端及以上价位需求景气上行周期，仍有 望展现更好弹性。 由于产区稀缺性强、生产周期长、品牌投入大等天然壁垒，酱酒行业进入门槛较高， 领先者具备马太效应，能够兑现产能储备领先→基酒储备领先→品质保障领先→品牌口 碑领先→收入规模领先→资本支出领先→产能储备领先的正向循环。茅台之外，习酒、 郎酒、国台、珍酒、金沙等领先品牌，其核心单品已在所属价格带拥有一席之地，并均 已启动较为领先的产能储备。 3.1. 酱酒全国化：一倡百和，三分天下 2016 年以来，品质化消费趋势，叠加渠道及资本追捧热潮，推动酱酒供需共振。 2016 年以来，居民财富效应及地产链繁荣共同推升白酒消费上行，茅台的优势地位越发 凸显，批价表现一骑绝尘，带动酱酒口味及品质认知迅速普及，酱酒消 ...

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。考虑 24H2 起白酒进入产业调整期，中 高档及以上价位带面临压力，下调公司 2024-26 年经调整 EPS 至 0.49 元（前值 0.59 元）、0.52 元（0.73 元）、0.55 元（0.89 元），当 前股价对应 2024 年 12X PE。 Q3 行业降速，公司坚持品质经营。24Q3 及国庆白酒大盘动销平淡， 公司注重结构和盈利，主动放慢渠道进度。其中主品牌珍酒通过升 级、扩产等实现优能优品的战略导向，珍十五再度获得专业赛事认 可并将推出升级后的四代珍十五，品质和知名度的提升有助于推动 消费场景和客群不断扩张；珍三十独立事业部运营后将以流通渠道 开发为目标，推进速度受次高端价位带白酒运行情况影响；高档酒 定位独特、渠道竞争相对较小，预计仍保持较快增长。第二品牌李 渡当前仍处于省内拓价位带、省外做市场阶段，预计延续此前趋势、 增速快于集团整体。 强化品牌力，拔高市场形象。公司致力于品牌培育，体验式营销是 重要抓手，2024 年在品鉴会、回厂游等的基础 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.01, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 7.91 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a three-engine growth model, with its flagship brand, Zhenjiu, leading the way, followed by Li Du and regional brands like Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao [9][10]. - The management team, led by founder Wu Xiangdong, has extensive experience in the liquor industry, which is seen as a key advantage for navigating market challenges [17][23]. - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.79% from 2020 to 2023, driven by strategic acquisitions and brand development [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Three-Engine Growth Model - The company has integrated high-quality assets to create a three-engine growth model, consisting of Zhenjiu, Li Du, and Xiangjiao & Kaikouxiao, which are expected to drive future growth [9][10]. - Zhenjiu has become a leading national brand in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, contributing 65% of total sales in 2023, with revenue growing from CNY 1.346 billion to CNY 4.583 billion from 2020 to 2023, achieving a CAGR of 50.46% [12][38]. - Li Du, contributing 16% of sales, has transitioned to the high-end market with revenue increasing from CNY 0.359 billion to CNY 1.110 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 45.63% [12][38]. - Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, as regional leaders, contributed 17% of sales, with Xiangjiao's revenue growing from CNY 0.395 billion to CNY 0.834 billion (CAGR of 28.28%) and Kaikouxiao's from CNY 0.172 billion to CNY 0.385 billion (CAGR of 30.77%) [12][13]. 2. Management Experience - The founder, Wu Xiangdong, has over 20 years of experience in the liquor industry, having successfully navigated various market cycles and established a strong brand presence [17][23]. - The management team has a proven track record in brand building and market expansion, which is critical for the company's future growth [24][27]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 85.32 billion, CNY 102.28 billion, and CNY 120.38 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of CNY 18.97 billion, CNY 25.33 billion, and CNY 33.51 billion [2]. - The report uses a P/E valuation method, estimating a target P/E of 19.5x for 2024, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 37 billion [2][12].