Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.11 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 205.93 HKD, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][4][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.62 yuan in 2023, increasing to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2025 and remain stable thereafter [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% growth [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.12 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price is set at 205.93 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 7.62 yuan in 2023 to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% increase [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

User Growth and Revenue - JD.com reported a significant increase in user data, with active customer accounts reaching 580 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 10%[11]. - The company achieved a revenue of $150 billion for the fiscal year, marking a 15% increase compared to the previous year[11]. - JD.com has set a revenue guidance of $160 billion for the next fiscal year, indicating a projected growth of approximately 6.7%[11]. - The company reported a total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2022, was RMB 1,046.236 billion, with projected revenue of RMB 1,158.819 billion for 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10.7%[60]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 1,084,662 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 3.6% compared to RMB 1,046,236 million in 2022[62]. - The total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, is projected to be RMB 1,158,819 million, reflecting a growth from RMB 1,084,662 million in 2023[69]. Investment and Expansion Plans - JD.com plans to expand its logistics network, aiming to increase the number of warehouses by 20% in the next fiscal year[11]. - The company is investing heavily in new technology, with a budget of $1 billion allocated for AI and automation development in the upcoming year[11]. - The company plans to invest in logistics infrastructure and technology platforms, as well as new business initiatives to enhance operational efficiency[28]. - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings and enhancing its logistics services to drive future growth[62]. - The company aims to enhance supply chain-based technology and service capabilities in 2024, indicating a focus on operational efficiency[83]. Financial Performance and Projections - JD.com reported a gross profit margin of 12%, which is a slight decrease from the previous year's margin of 13%[11]. - Operating profit for the year ending December 31, 2022, was RMB 19.723 billion, with an expected increase to RMB 38.736 billion by 2024, indicating a growth of approximately 96.5%[60]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the year ending December 31, 2022, was RMB 10.380 billion, projected to rise to RMB 41.359 billion by 2024, representing an increase of approximately 297.5%[60]. - The company’s basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 13.83, a significant increase from RMB 7.69 in 2022, reflecting an increase of 80.5%[62]. - The company reported a total operating cost of RMB 899.163 billion for the year ending December 31, 2022, with an expected increase to RMB 974.951 billion by 2024[60]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks related to its ability to effectively manage growth and execute strategies, which could adversely impact its business and outlook[18]. - There is uncertainty regarding the growth and profitability of the overall Chinese retail industry and online retail sector, which may negatively affect the company's revenue and business prospects[19]. - The company may not be able to maintain profitability in the future, posing a risk to its financial stability[18]. - The company is exposed to intense competition, and failure to compete effectively may result in loss of market share and customers[19]. - The company must comply with complex and evolving data privacy and cybersecurity laws, which presents additional operational risks[20]. Legal and Regulatory Environment - The company operates as a holding company registered in the Cayman Islands and does not hold equity in its variable interest entities, which may create uncertainties for investors[20]. - The company may face severe penalties or be forced to relinquish interests in its business if the Chinese government deems its contractual arrangements non-compliant with local laws[20]. - The company faces significant risks related to the approval of overseas offerings by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which may impact its ability to issue securities[21]. - The company is involved in a collective securities lawsuit, with allegations of misleading statements regarding its business operations and financial condition[121]. - The company is subject to potential penalties, including fines and business suspensions, if it fails to comply with cybersecurity and data security regulations[157]. Operational Efficiency and Logistics - The company must effectively manage its national logistics infrastructure; failure to do so could adversely affect its business outlook and operational performance[19]. - The company relies primarily on self-operated logistics infrastructure, supplemented by third-party courier services, which may face disruptions due to unforeseen events, potentially impacting timely product delivery[85]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company operates over 1,600 warehouses and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses, covering almost all counties in China, with a total building area exceeding 32 million square meters[95]. - The company employs 465,626 warehouse and delivery staff as of December 31, 2024, to enhance its logistics capabilities[95]. - JD Logistics may face significant adverse impacts if it fails to renew existing leases or find suitable alternative locations for its operations[189]. Customer Experience and Market Position - The company emphasizes the importance of providing an excellent customer experience, which is critical for its business success[84]. - The ability to attract new customers and retain existing ones is crucial for future growth, with the company leveraging AI technology for personalized product recommendations[93]. - The company aims to provide an exceptional shopping experience, maintain product quality and diversity, and ensure efficient delivery services to enhance customer satisfaction[91]. - A decline in online shopping popularity or failure to adapt to consumer demands could adversely affect revenue and business outlook[89]. - The retail sector is highly sensitive to macroeconomic changes, with factors such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and unemployment potentially impacting consumer confidence and spending[89]. Technology and Innovation - The company has invested in new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud technology to enhance its business operations[144]. - The company must continuously upgrade technology platforms to support business growth, as system upgrades may cause interruptions[141]. - Security of customer data and protection against network vulnerabilities are critical challenges for the online retail industry[148]. - The company has implemented security policies and measures, including encryption technology, to safeguard proprietary data and customer information[149]. - The evolving methods used by hackers necessitate increased resources for the company to maintain security measures[151]. Supply Chain and Inventory Management - The company’s inventory (net) was valued at RMB 89,326 million, up from RMB 68,058 million, marking an increase of about 31%[73][75]. - The annual inventory turnover days for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 33.2 days, 30.3 days, and 31.5 days respectively, indicating a slight increase in inventory management challenges[101]. - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings, which may lead to increased inventory management challenges and greater pressure on its warehousing system[101]. - The company has implemented systems to ensure inventory ordering meets demand, but new store openings may face challenges due to limited ordering history[166]. - The company may encounter difficulties in managing inventory effectively, which could lead to significant adverse impacts on its financial condition and liquidity[99]. Human Resources and Management - The company relies heavily on the expertise and experience of its management team, particularly Chairman Liu Qiangdong, and any loss of senior management could significantly impact business operations and financial performance[127]. - The company faces challenges in recruiting and retaining skilled personnel, particularly in logistics and operations, which could adversely affect business performance[128]. - The company is committed to investing in employee training, management, and motivation to support its growth strategy[83]. - The company has established audit committees composed of independent directors to review and approve significant related party transactions with its subsidiaries[131]. - The company has granted stock options to key personnel, with a total of 70,983,422 restricted stock units and 17,645,740 stock options outstanding as of December 31, 2024[199].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][8] Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit continuously from the national subsidy policy for replacing old products with new ones, and is actively extending its business boundaries by expanding into food delivery services [3][8] - The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses expected to grow by 13%, 9%, and 5% respectively [2][4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 is estimated at 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.4% [5][6] Revenue Summary - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 291.36 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year [6] - JD Retail's revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, driven by double-digit growth in both electronic products and daily necessities, with the electronic category benefiting more from the subsidy [2][4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is expected to be slightly weaker than revenue growth, primarily due to the high growth of the 1P model in the revenue structure [2][4] Profit Summary - The overall gross margin is projected to reach 15.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins across various categories and high-end 3C growth due to subsidies [5][6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is forecasted to be 51.7 billion, 56.9 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 9% [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the impact of new business investments is expected to be manageable [2] - JD Group's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to reach 290.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [5] - The report highlights the strong recovery in consumer spending and the benefits from national subsidies, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: 1,266.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 1,334.0 billion yuan - 2027E: 1,400.6 billion yuan [7][9] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: 45.56 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.38 billion yuan - 2027E: 56.05 billion yuan [7][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 14.63 yuan - 2026E: 16.40 yuan - 2027E: 17.78 yuan [7][9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 20% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - **JD Retail**: - Expected revenue growth of 12.3% to 254.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by national subsidies and improved operational efficiency [5][8] - **JD Logistics**: - Anticipated revenue growth of 11% to 46.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery market [5][8] - **JD Delivery**: - Daily order volume is projected to exceed 5 million following the launch of a significant subsidy program [8]

从指数持仓来看，中华交易服务中国香港内地指数十大权重分别为：阿里巴巴-W（11.36%）、腾讯控 股（10.15%）、美团-W（8.01%）、建设银行（7.32%）、小米集团-W（7.28%）、中国移动 （4.71%）、工商银行（4.27%）、比亚迪股份（4.26%）、中国银行（3.41%）、京东集团-SW （3.4%）。 从中华交易服务中国香港内地指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 本文源自：金融界 数据统计显示，中华交易服务中国香港内地指数近一个月下跌12.97%，近三个月上涨10.74%，年至今 上涨4.71%。 作者：行情君 据了解，中华交易服务中国跨境指数系列为一系列证券价格指数，由中华交易服务中国 120 指数(中华 120)、中华交易服务中国 A80 指数(中华 A80)、中华交易服务中国香港内地指数(中华香港内地指数)以 及中华交易服务中国 280 指数(中华 280)组成，以综合反映沪深港三地上市中国大、中盘证券的整体表 现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以2000.0点为基点。 金融界4月11日消息，上证指数低开高走，中华交易服务中国香港内地指数 (中华香港 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 4 月 11 日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK）25Q1 前瞻 Q1 GMV 及收入维持较快增长，利润表现预计符合预期 我们预计 25Q1 京东集团总收入同比+10.6%，Non-gaap 归母净利润同比 +15%。Q1 带电类国补驱动及日百品类稳健经营下 GMV 及收入预计维持双位 数较快增长，利润增长预计符合预期，京东自营电商壁垒坚实，当前关税政策 影响下市场转向内需，后续若刺激消费政策出台京东作为消费互联网龙头有望 显著受益，看好公司增长韧性以及供应链强议价能力下的利润提升空间，维持 "强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | | 1084662 | 1158819 | 1251543 | 1329509 | 1397248 | | 同比增长 | | 4% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 5% | | NON- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 12x PE for the retail business in 2025 [3][4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector, where revenue reached 1741.5 billion CNY, a 15.8% increase year-over-year [6][9]. - The report highlights a strong user engagement, with active user numbers and purchase frequency both showing double-digit growth for multiple consecutive quarters [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are projected at 436 billion CNY, 483 billion CNY, and 510 billion CNY, benefiting from an increased proportion of high-margin products [3][9]. - The report indicates that JD's retail segment is expected to maintain high single-digit to double-digit growth due to ongoing government subsidies and a favorable market environment [6][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail achieved revenue of 3070.6 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising to 100.4 billion CNY [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY, up 10.4% year-over-year, with operating profit increasing by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing operational capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD, with a new share repurchase program set to commence in September 2024 [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 220.5 HKD per share [4][9]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3469.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 112.9 billion CNY, up 34.2% year-over-year [6][9]. - The company benefits from the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted revenue, particularly in the electronics sector [6][9]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted upward due to the better-than-expected impact of the old-for-new policy, with projected revenues of 11588 billion CNY, 12586 billion CNY, and 13322 billion CNY respectively [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a product revenue of 2809.8 billion CNY, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, with the electronics category generating 1741.5 billion CNY, up 15.8% year-over-year [6][9]. - The service revenue for Q4 2024 was 660.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year growth, driven by increased user engagement and advertising revenue [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 436 billion CNY, with further increases to 483 billion CNY in 2025 and 510 billion CNY in 2026 [3][9]. Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was 3070.6 billion CNY, a 14.7% increase year-over-year, benefiting from high growth in home appliances and electronics [6][9]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 521.0 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a 10.4% year-over-year increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% [6][9]. - New business initiatives, including the launch of JD's food delivery service, are in early stages but are expected to leverage existing logistics capabilities without significant immediate financial impact [6][9]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, JD Group repurchased 2.553 million shares for approximately 36 billion USD, representing 8.1% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2023 [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.5 USD per share in 2024, totaling around 1.5 billion USD [6][9].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 京东集团-SW（09618） 证券研究报告 24Q4 业绩点评：盈利改善超预期，国补扩类物流协同打开增量空间 事件：北京时间 2025 年 3 月 6 日，京东集团（9618.SW）发布 2024 年第四季度及全年业 绩报告。2024 年第四季度，公司实现营业收入 3470 亿元，同比增长 13.4%，超彭博一致 预期；其中，商品收入 2,810 亿元，同比增长 14.0%；服务收入 660 亿元，同比增长 10.8%。 从 费 用 端 来 看 ， 2024 年 第 四 季 度 研 发 / 销 售 / 管 理 / 履 约 费 用 率 分 别 为 1.3%/4.9%/0.7%/5.8%，研发/管理/履约费用率环比下降 0.4/0.2/0.5pct，销售费用率环比 上升 1.0pct。利润端表现强劲：2024 年第四季度 Non-GAAP 归属于公司普通股股东净利 润为 113 亿元，同比增长 34.5%，Non-GAAP 净利润率达 3.3%，同比优化 0.6pct。全 年来看，2024 年总收入 11,588 亿元，同比增长 6.8%；Non-GAAP 归母净利润 478 亿元， ...