主站协同效应明显，外卖减亏节奏或将提 前 ——京东集团 25Q2 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 外卖协同效应凸显，电商物流业务进一步加速，Q2 外卖亏损高于预期进一步拖累公 司整体利润，但外卖亏损的改善节奏或有一定提前。预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13276/13967/14642 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 12891/13699/14323 亿元），经 调整归母净利润为 228/436/520 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 233/434/509 亿 元）。参考可比公司，给予公司 2026 年零售+新业务 8X PE 估值，加上公司对外股 权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 5421 亿元，对应每股股价 186.37 港元（人民币 兑港币汇率 1.10），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 政策效果不及预期，新业务亏损不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 09618.HK | | --- | --- | | | 买入（维持） | | 股价（2025年08月21日） | 121.1 港元 | | 目标价格 | 186.37 港元 | | ...

海通国际发布研报称，京东集团-SW(09618)次季收入同比增长22.4%，增速创三年新高;期内毛利率同比 升0.12个百分点至15.88%，零售毛利率实现连续13个季度同比增长，反映经营效率不断提高，料后续毛 利率仍有进一步改善空间。海通国际调整京东2025至27年各年营业收入至分别13,324亿、14,402亿及 15,273亿元，予目标价167港元，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

具体来看，在排位赛流量激励政策方面，针对通过官方渠道入驻且符合准入门槛，且活动期间表现优异的TOP1-30名达人，平台将根据排名给 予不同的额外流量奖励，助力优质账号扩大影响力。 京东图书此次招募重点聚焦真正具备图书推荐和销售转化能力的达人。图书作为典型的内容商品，其价值需通过深度解读方能显现，这与达人 推荐所依赖的内容创作模式高度契合。 该计划将持续至9月30日，旨在通过千万流量扶持与高额激励，推动更多优质图书内容产生，激活图书 市场消费潜力，助力优秀出版物触达更广泛读者。 在加磅返点政策方面，京东图书根据达人实际成交金额（实收GMV），设立相应的返点比例和金额：站内内容引导联盟成交金额达到500万元 的达人，将获得100万元激励金；成交金额达200万元、80万元和20万元，也可分别获得20万元、5万元和1万元奖励。 有业内人士指出，京东图书的"图书推荐官"招募计划，不仅是商业策略的升级，更是推动文化传播的创新实践。体现出了京东不断深化内容生 态建设、推动"内容+渠道"深度融合的战略布局。在全民阅读持续深入、知识消费日益多元的背景下，该计划有望借助达人的影响力和专业 性，进一步打通图书传播与销售链路，为图书 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive momentum with all three major indices rising, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index which surged by 1.61% after reaching a peak increase of 1.8% during the morning session [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.32% and 0.53% respectively, indicating a noticeable improvement in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally experienced upward trends, with Kuaishou rising nearly 4%, Xiaomi up nearly 2%, Tencent increasing by 1.43%, and Alibaba gaining 1.3% [3] - Semiconductor stocks were notably impacted by two significant news items, leading to a nearly 12% increase in Hua Hong Semiconductor and over 6% rise in SMIC [3] - Sportswear stocks continued to rise, with Li Ning increasing nearly 7% and reaching a new high following its earnings report [3] - Apple-related stocks collectively rose as Bank of America indicated that the Apple supply chain is entering a multi-year upgrade cycle [3] Weak Performers - Airline stocks faced significant declines, particularly China National Aviation which dropped over 6% following news of Boeing negotiating to sell up to 500 aircraft to China [3] - Other sectors such as heavy infrastructure, brain-computer interface concepts, coal, gaming, and solar energy stocks showed weak performance [3]

文｜象先志 京东的二季度财报确认了一个事实，2025的外卖大战是中国互联网历史上烈度最高的商业竞争。 高达147亿元的季度亏损，意味着仅仅京东外卖，年化亏损总额也会超过阿里宣布的500亿投入。 当然，京东的新业务里面不只包含外卖，但毫无疑问这部分亏损贡献了主要比例。 财报发布前，CEO许冉接受媒体专访表示，外卖市场存在泡沫，恶意补贴没有模式创新，并不产生增量价值，只会打乱价格体系，造成商家困扰，京东不会 参与。 事后来看，这更像是财报发布前京东搞的前瞻指引，只为做些舆论缓冲。 财报新闻稿里，京东声称新业务健康发展并已达成初期战略目标。 业绩电话会上，管理层说外卖与核心电商业务产生协同价值，符合最初预期。 我们当然不知道刘强东决定下场做外卖时，到底设置了什么战略目标，又具体树立了哪些预期。 我们可以确定的，是半年前的这些目标和预期，一定不是今天的目标和预期。 如《象先志》在此前曾提到的，京东当下面临的已是骑虎难下的局面。 外卖市场规模能在短期内被各方补贴从1亿单抬高了2.5亿单，证明外卖消费者属极度价格敏感型群体，谁给钱多跟谁走，补贴就是王道。 京东外卖当下或许还谈不上失败，但已然在酝酿败局。 而这，已经是刘强 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is re-entering the community group buying market with its JD Pinpin business, expanding its presence in multiple cities and aiming for significant growth in the sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - JD Pinpin has opened multiple stores in Beijing and other regions, including Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu, with plans for further expansion in areas like Daxing and Miyun [4][5]. - Since June, JD Pinpin has launched 16 new stores in Zhuozhou, focusing on communities with over 600 households and targeting local businesses like convenience stores and express delivery stations [5][6]. - The company aims to open 1,000 stores in Suqian, showcasing its ambitious expansion plans [5]. Group 2: Business Model and Partnerships - JD Pinpin offers flexible cooperation models for local merchants, providing a 5% commission on online sales and allowing them to purchase goods at cost price for resale [5][6]. - Merchants are required to pay a deposit of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, which can be refunded after one year if they do not renew their contract [5]. - The business leverages resources from JD's other operations, such as discount supermarkets, to reduce supply chain costs and enhance market coverage [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The community group buying sector has faced challenges, with competitors like Meituan and Taobao adjusting their strategies or exiting the market due to profitability issues [9][10]. - Experts indicate that community group buying is not currently a lucrative business due to low customer spending and high operational costs [9][10]. - JD Pinpin's new approach combines community group buying with convenience store operations, but this complexity may pose challenges in user experience and supply chain management [10].

智通财经APP获悉，周四，美股三大指数集体下跌，恒生指数ADR上涨，按比例计算，收报25129.15点，较香港收市升24.54点或0.1%。 | .HSIADR 恒生指数ADR | | | --- | --- | | 25129.15 ↑ +24.54 +0.10% - 收盘价 08/21 16:00 美东 | | | 三月回日 0 | | | 最高价 25167.65 开盘价 25107.94 | 成交易 3298.94万 | | 最低价 25039.93 昨收价 25104.61 | 平均价 25103.79 | | 52周最高 25778.47 上 涨 -- | 中 第一 | | 52周最低 17034.99 下 跌 -- | 振 幅 0.51% | | 800000 恒生指数 25104.61 -61.33 -0.24% | | 大型蓝筹股多数上涨，汇丰控股收报101.987港元，较香港收市涨1.08%；腾讯控股收报597.451港元，较香港收市涨0.75%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 港股代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | ADRIEG | ADR换算价(HKD) | 较港股升跌 较 | | ...

Core Insights - JD.com released the "2025 Corporate Mid-Autumn Procurement Trend Insight Report," highlighting a shift from "standardized supply" to "refined operations" in corporate procurement [2] - Health and outdoor products, along with digital trendy items, are emerging as new growth engines for corporate procurement, with healthcare, outdoor sports, and nutritional products showing growth rates of 61.65%, 59.66%, and 56.98% respectively [2] - The report serves as a "trend guide" for corporate procurement, aiming to enhance management efficiency and meet diverse user needs [2] Procurement Trends - Over 80% of employees believe that Mid-Autumn benefits enhance their sense of belonging to the company [3] - 55.4% of employees prioritize practicality in their choices, while procurement personnel are introducing diverse categories such as health, digital, and household cleaning products [3] - 43% of procurement personnel express concerns over the homogenization of benefits, and 42% face challenges in meeting diverse employee preferences [3] Employee Preferences - Employees emphasize practicality, with 55.4% listing it as their top consideration, while 36.8% desire novelty in products [3] - There is a strong demand for personalized and trendy options, with employees seeking features like multi-address ordering and family-sharing benefits [3] Cost Management and Digital Tools - Over 70% of procurement personnel seek a balance between historical data and established plans, with a notable increase in awareness of hidden cost management [4] - JD.com has developed digital tools to optimize the procurement experience, reducing management costs by over 30% and easing short-term financial pressures through a "purchase first, pay later" service [4] Regional and Industry Variations - Regional cultural influences significantly affect procurement choices, with variations in product preferences across different provinces [5] - Manufacturing firms prefer traditional benefits like mooncakes and staple foods, while internet companies lean towards digital products and trendy items [5] Platform Role and Market Position - JD.com has established itself as a trusted online procurement platform, serving over 800,000 active corporate clients, including more than 30,000 large enterprises and over 90% of Fortune 500 companies in China [6] - The trend in corporate Mid-Autumn procurement reflects an upgrade in management philosophy, with JD.com aiming to provide a one-stop "goods + services" procurement solution [6]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 风险提示：供应链拓展风险，宏观经济风险 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：投入持续加大，主业业绩 超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,237,771 | 1,307,251 | 1,388,740 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.84% | 6.81% | 5.61% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） 同比（%） Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） 24.73% 35,200 | 35,200 | 47,827 35.87% 47,82 ...

零售效率持续提升，关注外卖投入节奏 京东集团 2Q25 业绩点评 本报告导读： 京东零售业务运营效率持续改善，618 期间外卖业务日单量突破 2500 万单，看好其 带动零售业务加速发展。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1084662 | 1158819 | 1332356 | 1440199 | 1527272 | | (+/-)% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | | 毛利润 | 159704 | 183868 | 214313 | 233312 | 248945 | | Non-GAAP 净利润 | 35200 | 47827 | 26539 | 40391 | 54071 | | (+/-)% | 25% | 36% | -45% | 52% | 34% | | 经调整 PE | 10.0 | 7.3 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 6.5 | | 资料来源：Wind，HTI 研 ...